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Thursday, June 22, 2017


“Be very careful when attempting to catch the vapors!”

Oh, the “wailing & gnashing of teeth” over in Libtard Nation is deafening … Chelsea Handler, Debra Messing, and a host of other Hollywood degenerates like Michael Moore, are in “shock & tears” over ‘Pajama Boy” losing by 5% to Karen Handel in Georgia - 06. A “woman” won, you should happy … right femi-Nazis? Oh wait … it’s the wrong “kind” of woman … I guess we can drop the sexist bullshit now OK? And what happened to all those wonderful polls showing “Pajama Boy” was going to win? As everybody with one functioning brain cell knows, but apparently Libtards keep getting fooled with every election, the “polls” are over sampled with Libtards to get the desired result; they don’t reflect reality, they try to shape it to “the agenda”. And you assclowns continue to wander in the wilderness wondering to yourselves why you keep losing … don’t ever change Libtards, don’t ever change.

Along these lines, Rick Moran has the money quote in his latest article over at “American Thinker”; All of those excuses fail to get to the crux of why the left keeps losing.  Ordinary Americans simply don't like leftists very much.  And when Hollywood and Silicon Valley unite to tell them they are stupid, are ignorant, are racist, are homophobic, hate Muslims, and shouldn't love America so much, what do they expect the reaction from ordinary people will be?

Here’s the link to read the whole article directly below:

Outside of Sunday night’s “vapors” rally, capping a month that routinely saw central bank “vapor rallies” almost every night for a solid month, something has happened since then; the last two nights have seen nothing of them whatsoever. Where have they gone?

In a research piece I read the other day, a Citi analyst makes the case that when the world’s central banks “pull back” from the liquidity explosion of the financial asset buying spree they have been on, they will 1) do it together in a coordinated effort, and 2) world equity markets will immediately react in a negative way. EXIT QUESTION: “Does the SNB know about this”? My own take is that the central bank manipulators keep a very close watch on the “pulse” of world markets; even with the CNTRL-P button at the ready, they still have to be careful the amount of liquidity they let loose upon the world … the NDX100 “bubble ramp up” and then quick 3 day decline, being just the latest example of the “law of unintended consequences” clueless central planner Twits have no comprehension of or for. “Wonder why the world is in the state it is in? First, take a look at the morons in power, and the usual cast of sycophants gathered around them looking for scraps of power, and then look no farther than this law … there’s your answer Skippy”!

My point here is simple, and it goes to the heart of being a career, professional trader or money manager; “Everything ... and I do mean EVERYTHING … has to work eventually at some point; it’s called “tail risk”, and no matter how stupid, deranged, logic backward, risk loaded, and downright unwise to follow and/or implement, at some point in the future you can expect it to work. Nobody has a clue when or why, and many will “latch onto” a plan that probability theory, market history, and human psychology says will turn into a disaster as sure as the sun comes up in the east tomorrow morning. I have always said, “life is trading; trading is life … you can’t separate the two. So, no matter the area of interest or subject matter, whether it is the idiocy of politics, your love life, and/or trading, there are going to be times where the “law of unintended consequences” takes over … the solution? Simple: you have to be able to ride it out, survive, and then prosper”!

There simply is no way, outside of short bursts of when it works, that it makes sense to be a “pajama trader”; I am referring to those people in the U.S. that trade in the “wee hours” of 12:00 A.M. – 3:00 A.M. and hope to latch onto the central bank “vapor rallies”. For one thing, the CB’s aren’t stupid, and for another they don’t discriminate when hating retail spec accounts; it makes no difference to them whether they destroy you being long or short, simple fact is they hate your guts. Why? Cuz you’re are trying to make money off of them and they don’t like that; so, at the drop of a hat, they can turn the nighttime spigot off for as long as they like … “err, wait a sec here … I got to make a living … you can’t do that”! And whether they choose to leave it off 2 days, a month, 6 months, or the next couple of years, neither you nor I have a clue what they are going to do. But, I do know their bids will be there in New York the whole day, and they will be active the whole New York day, and whether or not they choose to “vapor rally” the Dow30 at 2:37 A.M. EDST is “tough toenails” cuz I can’t trade 24/5 without becoming a meth addict.

My greater point of all this today is probability theory … humans like routine and certainty; usually the older one gets, the more set in their ways they become. That isn’t gonna fly when it comes to trading today’s financial derivatives. It’s all probability theory 100% of the time.

Turning to today’s market … here a few hours before the open in New York, it’s very quiet with a subdued light bid off the night’s lows … there are a shipload of Fed Pie Holes speaking today and that’s about it; can they all speak with one “forked tongue”, or do they lie separately to grab a headline and get 2 minutes on CNBC to promote themselves? … of course, in the last hour and a half we have started the glacial drift up in the Dow30 hitting a new high for the day, cuz as we all know, the institutional Chipmunks must be forced to buy high prices at the open … it doesn’t matter whether the market goes up or down after the first 5 minutes, traders on major bank proprietary trading desks [“you know, the ones that are supposed to be illegal, but of course are ignored cuz the TBTF bank says to the regulators “go F yourself”, we do what we want”.] know “the game” and will make the hedge funds, mutual funds, insurance companies, and pension plans pay up as a result of their stupid rules that all buying for said funds must occur in the first 5 minutes of trading in New York. It’s a stupid rule, but it was put in place to prevent fund traders conspiring with bank traders to “front run” orders and then getting cash under the table later [something the CME in Chicago was famous for back in the day] for the info on what was coming in 60 seconds. “Hey, who doesn’t like Benji’s in a big paper sack first thing Monday morning”? And so, the bullshit never ends, it just finds another way to find a fan big enough to hit people square in the face. In the end, the banks still screw them royally, only they don’t need the middleman anymore, so it’s nice & “official” now. “Banksta’s got to be bankstas … it’s who they are and what they do”.

Open comes, and open goes … Chipmunks get the high fills, and now an hour into this clusterfark, the M1 chart looks like a monkey threw a bowl of spaghetti up against a wall and some of the noodles stuck … very small range so far, and like yesterday, the attempts by the central planners to raise bids is being met with somebody selling it back to them … this is something that we definitely haven’t seen in a while, so stay tuned … maybe the world is getting put on notice that a market can have two-way action and not be simply a one trick pony up every 5 minutes.

Here at Noon in New York, once again you can clearly see the signs of central bank manipulation all over the M1 chart; there simply is no other reasonable explanation for this type of trading. Today, we have seen nothing but “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] spikes to the upside followed by “zip, zero, zilch, & nada”; already we have seen multiple 20-30 point bursts to the upside in less than 90 seconds, followed by stretches of total inactivity where the Dow30 can’t even get out from underneath the 2 point spread within 30 minutes or longer … and then BOOM! … another blast up out of nowhere in seconds that can’t be captured without potential horrible slippage from the LP on the offer side as you’re buying; welcome to the new central bank trading paradigm.

Here at mid-afternoon, it’s getting somewhat ridiculous for me to keep saying this, but it’s simply true; here is another “one of the worst trading days I’ve ever seen” type of days, where outside the open this entire day so far is a disaster of trading proportions, where the only thing that happens are 1) rapid spikes out of nowhere, and 2) followed by hours of total nothing [like 3 point Dow30 point bid ranges]. Seriously, this is more than pathetic, cuz when it ends, the volatility that is going to get “unleashed” will be eye-watering to say the least.

And I am going to repeat what I have said before; “if you can’t see the blatant, overt manipulation by the central banks and/or the “PPT” in the Dow30 & SP500, then you are blind, and either can’t or won’t face the reality of trading today in the stock indices”. The bad news? They make M1 signals difficult on tight range days impossible to capture without exposing your account to multiple exponential rates of risk to capture a few points. The good news? They work on our behalf [unknowingly of course] and I know what’s coming, although I don’t know when. The new version 4 algorithm absolutely “nails it” when it comes to trade initiation; it’s then up to probability theory and risk avoidance to liquidate, and to sum it up succinctly, “some days you’re the statute, and some days you’re the pigeon”. On days like today back-in-the-day of the pits, faced with trading conditions somewhat akin to today [not as bad, but close], walking out the door at the end of the day up $1 felt like “victory”. Seriously, that’s how bad this stuff is today; what a frickin’ train wreck.

It's 3:15 P.M. [45 minutes to the close], and we sit on a raft out in the middle of the ocean drifting nowhere; I have no idea where this stuff goes in the next 45 minutes, but whatever they do, they can do it without me. No way am I getting sucked into this toxic waste dump of a trading day.

I made one trade today from the algorithm, and when it came back and threatened being profitable, I liquidated per algo rules. You never, ever let a profit turn into a loss once in a position … and so, I didn’t. Of course, a couple of hours later I missed the 2 blasts up “from nothing” to nothing, which when you consider the range today isn’t saying much, it’s that pathetic. Again, you take what they give you and walk … hanging around taking unnecessary risks gets you exactly what you think it does. Onward and Upward.

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.

Beach beckons … the dog wants ice cream [of course], so we are gonna hit the DQ first for some soft-serve … we are outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!



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