7TH GRADE SNOWBALL FIGHT … PART ii

 

“And this is what goes for “war” now? … lob some scripted missiles!!?”

Imagine if this horseshit were in WWII … who is lucky enough to be in Hitler’s

press corp? … would they ask what his favorite flavor of ice cream is? … and

so here we go again with another bogus “the world is coming to an end, sell

Mortimer, SELL!! … WELL IT APPEARS, NOBODY GOT HURT! … what a relief

to the hordes of Libtard Journos who think war is somehow just a photo op

for propaganda … I’m so old I can remember when war was for killing and

breaking things” … and once again, overnight the sellers get stiffed and made

to look like Chumps!

Meanwhile my annual physical, always a pleasure for any guy over the age of 35,

went off without a hitch … sure, you know it’s coming, but that doesn’t stop them

from putting on the gloves that look like they’re gonna deliver a calf out on the

farm … from my perspective, that’s what it looked like … cuz nothing, absolutely

nothing beats the experience of a prostate exam … that was so good, can I get a

second opinion from another Indian doctor here? … and when I sarcastically

asked the nurses where’s my tootsie roll lollipop for being a brave little soldier, I

am magically informed that’s only for big boys who don’t B.I. Itch and moan all

the way down the hallway back to Mommy … “well, that’s easy for you to say

… I’m hoping the mental scars heal by this time next year!"

Is there anything left on the order books for a Friday after first killing longs and

then destroying shorts? … after this bogus WWIII clusterfark you got to wonder

if anybody wants to play trading today, or just go home for the weekend and ask

themselves why they stayed up all night to get the shit beat out of ‘em? … time

would have been better spent watching “Brady Bunch” reruns and WNBA

highlights … asking for some friends … we’re about to find out.

As we lurch to the criminal, money laundering NYSE open, crypto getting some

heartburn slightly lower after basically 5 hours sideways where no headway was

made to the upside … and if you can’t take it higher, disappointment always sets

in and traders will attempt to take it lower … sometimes it works, many times it

doesn’t and in that case you get chopped to death buying breakout tops and then

selling breakout bottoms or vice versa … in any event, not a good scenario when

things are tight and getting tighter … markets have done a complete 180 from 48

hours ago … ultra bat shit crazy [BSC] to are we open?

Now into mid afternoon in NY, and nobody but nobody wants to play … it’s the

human psychology factor at work on a Friday where earlier first longs, then

shorts, got hosed in about as record of a time as you can possibly have … not

just crypto but everything … however, I would note crypto loves to follow and

mimic the NDX100, and the darling techs have been down now 6 days in a row

[including today], losing some 1,250 index points, or roughly 6% in value

… while they won’t usually go tick-for-tick, it’s tough sledding for ETH to move

higher when tech “Stonks” are getting beaten like a baby seal at a Japanese

whale hunt.

So we go from mind blowing bat shit crazy [BSC], and then walk into today and

the entirety of the NY session is about $55 in ETH? … WTF? … and while there

were some algo buy signals, albeit very weak in scope and nature, unless

“Stock Bellie” can regain some upward “FOMO & MOMO”, who wants to be

stuck in ETH begging for price to get above your buy so you can make $0.19?

… and that’s if you’re lucky and they don’t rip the shit out of your order with

slippage … been at that rodeo and don’t want to play for meager gains with the

same risk … all-in-all, simply a shit day … back to those “Brady Bunch” reruns

… so no trades today, not cuz I wasn’t tuned in … Hell, I was “locked & loaded”

… it’s cuz there was no real market today in the NY session, with about the worst

chop you could imagine … blog update on Sunday … cya then!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😍😍,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

HERE’S WHAT I SAW YESTERDAY!

 

“A celestial force driving Libtards & RINOS to TDS!!”

Gold marches on … outside of the ChiComs and their insatiable demand for

phyz, it’s almost like everybody else doesn’t care about price … just buy, I don’t

care what the price is … and that my dear amigos is a very dangerous trading

mindset … tomorrow morning we get CPI made up numbers from the math whiz

kids in government, and in the afternoon FED Lounge Lizard minutes … every

market on Earth rigged for this I can assure you, with complete “Twilight Zone”

price moves in the seconds following the news … will the ChiComs care?

… does every dog get to ride on the fire truck to infinite price increases, and

then they all sell the top? … nice thought, too bad it never ever works

out that way!

What I can tell you is that gold over the last 50 years, has cost more spec traders

their accounts than all other markets combined … everybody and their pet rabbit

has got price projections past the edge of the solar system … it’s always been

like this since the 1970’s ‘til now … funny how life gets in the way, and it doesn’t

quite turn out this way … gold is UP 7 of the last 8 weeks, some $360 higher

… what can propel it even higher is a short covering squeeze the likes of which

this market has never seen … like silver back in the day … bankrupt some bullion

banks and squeeze the FED Lounge Lizards unmercifully, all the while the

ChiComs bid it higher and higher with no end in sight [remember the Hunt

brothers?] … until one day, everybody looks around and wonders who’s left to

buy … and in the next 30 seconds all Hell breaks loose! … kinda like the great

crash in “Stonks” in October 1987, where it just feeds on itself in a frenzy to

GTFO! … if this shit doesn’t settle down, that’s where we are headed!

Apparently the Dukes know something, cuz around 10:30 AM EST, market

Lemmings go over the cliff in unison … “Spoos”, crypto, and gold all get

mauled lower … position squaring ahead of the CPI tomorrow? … or maybe

NVIDIA, the darling of the “AI” group of tulip bulbs currently in favor, down over

2% on failing technical levels … point is, EVERYTHING IS OVEREXTENDED AT

THE MOMENT, and it doesn’t take much for an overleveraged trader to hit the

exit gate … although gold by far acting better than the rest … nice level RM=4

support hit on the m15, and subsequent turnaround in the “Spoos” … “there

simply IS NO BETTER PREDICTIVE TOOL I CAN GIVE YOU THAN THESE RM

LEVELS IN DIFFERENT MARKETS! … [“SPOOS” screenshot of the m15 [left]

and the m1 [right] directly below.

click on chart to enlarge

One can only hope both ranges and medians for the “Spoos” are breaking out of

this bullshit low VIX environment we’ve seen since last November … if so, the

“Spoos” can be a very good scalping / day trading vehicle … I would add,

though, only if the scumbag LP at Coinexx fills orders like they should … given

their track record, that’s a tall order, but we’ll see in the days / weeks ahead

… quite frankly, I want to get the CPI number behind us before venturing into the

“Spoos” … I’m a little surprised we got this level of range and VIX today … let’s

hope it stays like this!

Gold starting to succumb to pressure lower, and if we get below yesterday’s close

of 2339, there are sell stops below that … right now, we’re only a few bucks per

OZ. away from this level … buckle up! … I’ll point out, though, my biggest fear

with gold isn’t some catastrophic meltdown, but sideways movement that makes

any correction more of a time feature than anything in the way of price … if that

happens after the CPI tomorrow, I’m gonna move over to the “Spoos” and see

how we get treated there … I’m hopeful but not optimistic since both DOW30 &

NDX100 are a trading joke thanks to slippage … but the “Spoos” are the

benchmark, so we’ll see.

Outside of the mini meltdown started at the NYSE open at 9:30 AM EST and finished

at 10:30 AM EST, that saw the “Spoos” lose about 62 index points, and the

subsequent lower RM=4 hit on the m15 that saw an immediate sharp bounce, the

“Spoos” haven’t done much at all in terms of price movement … this is what I

kinda expected going into tomorrow’s “most important evahhhhhhhh! CPI print”

… all Hell is gonna break loose tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST, and if it’s a

“HOT” headline print of 0.4% or higher and bond yields start climbing, look out

below Skippy … tomorrow could be a wild ride … quite frankly, about frickin’ time!

Some chances today for gold to go lower, but the market can’t “seal the deal”,

and most of the rallies have been of the “dead cat bounce” variety … still, so far

we’re still higher on the day, so make that 10 out of 11 trading days higher for

about a $204 per OZ. gain … without some kind of correction lower on the day,

I simply don’t want to get long up here … onto tomorrow.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

LOOK OVER THERE, A SQUIRREL!

 

“Meanwhile over in the “Spoos”, some heartburn ensues!!”

You mean “Stock Bellies” can actually go down? … huh, who knew? … and while

the whole world watches other markets, “Stonks” mini “Thelma & Louise” in the

last 2 hours, going past RM=4 on the m15 for 2 hours straight into the close … a

yuck jobs number tomorrow and who knows the hilarity that comes our way with

a weekend that looks like Iran & Israel are ready for war … no worries, I’m sure

Biden has a plan … Bwahahaha!

And the propaganda “fix” continues, with another “pie-in-the-sky” fantasy jobs

report, where half the blowout gains are part-time jobs that pay ZILCH, the other

half illegals mowing lawns, and the other half government hiring … where are

the full time jobs? … well, they’re in the shitter that’s where, but who cares?

… somebody enlighten me how government hiring is a “good thing” … and of

course, the ensuing chaos comes “el quicko mucho”, none more so than in gold,

where sell stops got brutalized … a few minutes later, we’re off to a $60+ gain in 2

hours, with no corrective activity, and then it’s the “Loser Formation” … like so

many other markets that have gone hyperbolic over these last years, from crude

oil to USDJPY, when the FOMO is over THE REAL CARNAGE CAN BEGIN, and

gold will be no different … traders today betting on the end of the world over the

weekend, as Israel and Iran look ready to go to war.

But hang on a sec … how many times over the last 70+ years has the west heard

from dictators and ragheads about “total annihilation”? … remember Saddam,

and how he was gonna return body bags by the millions back to the U.S.? … how

long did that war last, a day or two at the most? … and who got overthrown and

died? … bluster and bullshit are their biggest allies, and their threats are NOT

aimed at Israel, they’re aimed at the nutjobs that live in their own country … you

think the Mullahs 1) really want to die this weekend, or 2) live in a deep bunker

for the next 50 years? … start a war with Israel for real and find out just how fast

they kick your ass back to the stone age … come Monday, and we’re all still here,

where do gold longs go from these levels?

Sure, I’m bullish on gold, and have been for a good long while … but over the last

70 or so years this shit has traded, we’ve never seen FOMO like this … EVER!

… and while I believe there are plenty of gains ahead, only greed grows to the sky

unabated and devoid of reality … and quite frankly, IMHO, today is the kind of

blow off day that short term tops are made of … the potential for an “ugly” drop

is high, if not Monday then sometime next week … this cannot be sustained.

Inexplicable.

As I stated before, the viciousness of the “V” bottoms, and their subsequent

“elevator up” in spades ascent, is something to behold … good grief, if you’re

buying the green spike up, close your eyes and get ready for a fill from Hell

… NFP Friday is always a crapshoot, simply cuz the numbers are made up fairy

tales and always have been … a propaganda tool for FED Lounge Lizards

… very tough to navigate, and for my money the absolute worst trading day

each and every month it comes around … whatever the narrative is in any

market, Wall Street will find something in the report to latch onto and push it in

that direction … today, though, gold is about WAR and the fact we’re all gonna

die this weekend, so “load up” … well, if that’s true, “load up” for what exactly?

… there won’t be anything to “load up” for!!

The good news is that ranges, both daily and NY, are expanding at a good clip

… that doesn’t mean every day is Christmas morning under the tree, it means

conditions are favorable … now all we need is some actual “trading” that isn’t

just a buck or two inside the “Loser Formation” or tight chop … I thought we’d

see it this week given the gains … NOPE, just more FOMO … it just heightens the

probability that in the days and weeks to come we’ll get the conditions we want

for trading … straight up / straight down ain’t it … blog update on Sunday

… cya then!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: INSTITUTIONS WILL GO FULL RETARD FOMO

“Yes, I know the feeling!!”

I start today’s blog update with the 20 Day Range & Median values for our

3 PAMM markets [BTC, ETH, “SPOOS”] directly below.

click on table to enlarge

Two metrics immediately stand out to me, both disturbing … 1) the SP500

[SPOOS”] as a trading vehicle stink at the moment, and 2) the ratio of NYSE

MEDIAN VALUES FOR BTC & ETH / DAILY AVERAGES HAS SUNK INTO THE

LOW 50’S … more and better moves are coming overnight … how low can this

metric go?

What we don’t know about this latest bull run in both BTC & ETH, simply cuz

ETFs only started January 10, 2024 in BTC, barely 2 months ago, with ETH

coming later this year, is any kind of history of institutions or corporate demand

structures [banks, hedge funds, HFTs, insurance companies, or major

corporations] that can give us a hint as to their behavior … from what I see over

in “Stock Bellies” [DOW30, SP500, and/or NDX100], particularly the mega tech

tulip bulb darlings, the real world versus the prices of the “Stonks” reflects

prices for Unicorn meat … in other words, it’s BTFD FOREVER! … and of

course, that arena is dominated by institutions, so why not the same

phenomena in crypto with heavy emphasis on the big 2, BTC & ETH going

forward? … “WTF!, if the tech darlings can go up THOUSANDS OF PERCENT

OVER A FEW YEARS, with nary a drop in price but ‘tis a mere scratch, WHY

NOT CRYPTO? … in fact, we may be at the very start of the biggest bull run

in any market the world has ever seen, with values for BTC & ETH that sound

insane!” … thank you very much corrupt government that has given us

depreciating fiat!

At the major crypto houses [e.g., Phemex & Binance], it now costs right around

$4 per 1 ETH coin for “gas fees” [round turn commissions = 0.12% of notional

trade size ] … at Coinexx, when conditions aren’t bat shit crazy [BSC] and price

isn’t shooting straight up or down in chunks, the spread is usually well under

50 cents per coin … RT commish has up ticked about a penny to 7 cents per

1 lot cuz of the price increase … and yes, none of that guarantees a decent fill,

as my last trade in ETH at Coinexx was an embarrassment to the concept of

price discovery … still made money on the trade, but still it’s the principle of

the thing with these thieving, scumbag HFT [probably Citadel or BlackRock] LPs

… point is, the vast majority of the time our costs will be lower … much lower

… pretty much NOT the case in BTC, and it’s why I prefer ETH as a trading

vehicle … in my mind, it’s simply the new NASDAQ … give it a few years, and

it’ll be over $10K and climbing … onto the week. 

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas