BRUTAL TRUTHS

 

“That moment when FX doesn’t behave!”

Some wicked end of month dollar flows, combined with horribly small European

range into the London Fix, all mixed together with some nasty sell stop action in

USDJPY, and after yesterday’s 20 year high over 131, USDJPY can’t hang onto

130, and has gotten beat up down to the 129.40 level … and this with 10 YR

Treasury rates higher today, hugging the 2.90% level … go figure … a brutal

WTF moment for USDJPY positioned longs, who yesterday were dreaming of

Lambos, and who cares what premium gas costs?! … let the worldwide

depression commence!

USDJPY a tale of 2 cities today … up until the last half hour going into the

London FIX, we had about a 35 PIP range for over 8 hours … that sucks and is

gonna lead to algorithm “false positives” cuz VIX is terrible … then into the “fix”

[somebody got fixed alright], it’s straight down into sell stop Hell and USDJPY

craters some 70 PIPS “el quicko”… and while the day’s range is more than

acceptable, it masks the deep and seriously flawed trading action most likely

caused by month end institutional dollar flows, and of course the scumbag LP

banks oh so too willing to fuck anybody and everybody and then buy the sell

stops in a heartbeat and within about 2 seconds we’re 20 PIPS higher … and

from there it’s a hasty exit into the weekend as trading action literally DIES

… now what? … scumbags, but we know that already.

Multiple algorithm buy signals today in USDJPY … TURNKEY PAMM DOWN

SLIGHTLY … collectively, down about 2 Happy Meals and a couple of large

drinks … not really important at all … got one “false positive” as Yen hit sell

stops, and that was unfortunate … overall though, fills were relatively decent

while market action lacked consistency … one thing I need to remember about

trading  USDJPY, though, is that many times larger moves off of algorithm buy

signals require greater patience for them to “work out” optimally, and many times

quick scalps aren’t the answer … but whatever, overall I’m happy with latency,

fills, and general Yen movement as we head into next week, which is “FED week”

on Wednesday … could get unbelievably slow and choppy to Wednesday at

2 PM EST, where for the YEN, this might be the most important FED meeting on

interest rates in a very long time … time to play the poker hands and show cards,

and is the FED bluffing with “blah blah, yada yada” higher rates in spades, or do

they mean it this time? … once Wednesday comes and goes, YEN action has the

potential to really heat up.

My volumes have increased and will go higher from here in USDJPY … I like how

it’s trading, and its “fingerprint” in corrective activity when VIX is present, shows

itself well … if VIX can stay consistent, the algorithm is almost impossible to beat

… if shit dies and lays down like today, where we get the “30-ish PIP sickness

syndrome”, then it becomes like flipping coins … make a little, lose a little, geesh

what a frickin’ mess! … given the rate disparity evolving now, I don’t foresee any

kind of Summer slowdown where the financial world simply says, “surfs up!” and

everybody heads to the beach … sure, could be wrong, but my estimate of where

matters stand makes this Summer one Helluva lot more volatile than what we’re

used to … we’ll see, and it starts in earnest this coming Wednesday.

I’m not surprised at 20 year highs in USDJPY, nor some pulling back after it

happens … what I’m surprised at is the ease of decline in USDJPY, right through

130 like it’s not even there, and now here in mid afternoon of New York on a

Friday, seeing a new low for the day threatened with an already approximate

160 PIP range … could be a “stealth” BOJ operation to punish longs, as the BOJ

senses YEN repatriation flows here at the end of the month … dunno, but I find

the scope of the lower range today bigger than I thought it would be, with more

nasty downside action given the upside sky rocketing we saw yesterday … EXIT

QUESTION: “Are all of the longs already in the market long? … who’s left to buy

USDJPY before some kind of nasty correction? … wouldn’t be the first time in FX

history to see a major top / bottom in price before anybody is even close to calling

it or seeing it … and despite what you’re feeling, which is often wrong, that’s why

we have the trading algorithm, cuz it’s first priority is to keep your ass out of

trouble, and then go find profitable trades … 20 years ago, did it look like it would

be another 20 years to get back to the 130 - 131 level in USDJPY? … I can tell you

flat out, nobody but nobody was talkin’ it or predicting it … nobody! … keep this

in mind”.

And while EURUSD & GBPUSD were getting oversold as well coming into today,

it’s not surprising to see before a weekend some level of corrective activity … in

those 2 pairs it’s been mild to say the least … YEN much more nasty in it’s scope

… something to think about … new low for the day in USDJPY as more sell stops

get flushed out before the weekend … and while I have been thinking about this

for more than a couple of weeks, quite frankly I’m of the humble opinion that VIX

in FX is “breaking out” and going higher … mercilessly beaten down for years by

central bank planners and their BFF scumbag LP bank buds, at least since the

EURCHF debacle in January 2015, and notwithstanding the bullshit known as

BREXIT, I think the “FX VIX Genie” has escaped the bottle and refuses to be put

back in … this has profound implications for traders, especially from the

perspective of how you can trade FX for MAX profit … when FX VIX consistently

sucks, trading both sides of the market profitably becomes very difficult if not

impossible … for example, trading EURUSD or USDJPY, both from the  long and

short side when the 20 Day Range MA is in the 40’s or 50’s IS A DEATH WISH

… double or triple the VIX and consistently keep it there, and it’s a different story

altogether … now based on some proprietary criteria I’ve developed [see the

trading manual when released], both sides can be traded equally … simply cuz

there’s movement in the market that can be effectively captured, and the

psychology of the trading action has changed from complacency, into one of

“man-O-man I don’t wanna get caught long or short when this shit gallops the

other way … time to cover and cut the loss!” 

And given the discrepancy I mentioned before in terms of rate hikes / cuts

between central banks, it looks to me like VIX is gonna be elevated for a good

long while … throw in the Russia bullshit with Ukraine, and Europe’s big

geopolitical and economic problems go orbital … absolutely nothing is stable

here … NADA! … so in regards to EURUSD, OR GBPUSD, I think trading both

sides now makes sense … literally no reason to be “long only” … as for USDJPY,

though, I would beg to differ, cuz Kuroda and the BOJ is a “basket case” … with

crude set to skyrocket further, USDJPY going higher seems the safest bet on the

board, despite what happens day-to-day.

Blog update on Sunday … outta here  … “The future’s so bright I need

sunglasses”!!😎😎 … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

DOUBLE, TRIPLE, QUADRUPLING DOWN ON HUMAN STUPIDITY

 

“The BOJ showing a level of stupid not even Einstein can comprehend!”

In my remarks yesterday in switching [and staying] PAMM trading into USDJPY, I

forgot to mention that last night the BOJ had an interest rate meeting … and while

“Peter Pan” Kuroda [I think I can, I think I can!] and crew verbally signal their

intentions in the days before the meeting, no level of hubris plus rampant

stupidity can match what they did last night … cuz not only did they keep easy

policy in place, which was expected, they doubled and tripled down emphasizing

very clearly 1) their intentions to keep monetary policy “easy” [while the FED

tightens aggressively], and 2) their intention to keep “Yield Curve Control” [YCC]

alive and well by offering every business day IF THEY HAVE TO, THE PURCHASE

OF ANY AND ALL 10 YR. JGB’s at 0.25%.

You can attempt to control interest rates, OR you can attempt to control and

manipulate your currency … you can’t do both! … and when you realize Japan

has a national debt of approximately 1.4 QUADRILLION YEN, which gets added to

every day to become larger, maybe you can do some “racyist” math and figure

out what happens if interest rate go up by even 0.5% … and the answer is simple,

the country goes full retard Venezuela or Zimbabwe, cuz you can't print money fast

enough over the depreciation it’s suffering … Japan has a staggering 266% of

debt to GDP level, and the demographics of Japan are the worst of any country

in the world, as the birth/death ratio is nowhere near 1:1, and the population is

aging quickly … in other words, it’s a “shitshow circus” locked inside of a “death

spiral” … so they simply cannot let interest rates rise, and that means the YEN

suffers loss. 

And if you’re wondering, the Lounge Lizards at the FED are rapidly pursuing the

same insane policy wonk bullshit, only ‘Murica isn’t as far along as Japan … YET!

… and as the Asian session closes in pure sell YEN panic, USDJPY has a 267 PIP

range before the European session even begins, climbing up to 131.000 before

backing off … this is about a clear an indication as you’re ever gonna see in FX,

as the BOJ gives the “green light” to sell YEN, and where it goes from here to the

upside is anybody’s guess … quite frankly, we’re in “The Twilight Zone” of YEN

trading, where conditions are matching events from the great financial crisis of

2008, all the way back to YEN appreciation magic in the middle 1990’s … and if the

FED somehow raises rates by 75 bps on May 4, if you think you’ve seen panic in

USDJPY so far, just wait … if that happens, all Hell will break loose in USDJPY to

the upside, and the only thing stopping it would be direct YEN buying by the BOJ

through intervention, something they certainly aren’t afraid to do … the last time

USDJPY was this high, January 2002 was starting off … get through the 135 level,

and in the electronic age of trading, you’re in UNCHARTED TECHNICAL

TERRITORY, and if you think there are “rules” out here, you’re sadly mistaken!

… and this is where we are at right now, as Japan slithers down the economic

rathole to complete currency destruction … and in the months ahead, the inflation

coming with a vengeance to Japan with this approximate 15% devaluation in 6

weeks!, will hit Japan’s population like a brick to the face … you better keep

wearing the “I think I can shoes” cuz now try keeping 10 YR JGB’s at 0.25%!

… their only hope, is that the FED Lounge Lizards are talking “blah blah,

yada yada” bullshit about rate increases, and somehow are willing to lose even

more credibility [if that’s possible] by stepping back from their aggressive

posture … but if they go full retard rate hikes, starting with a 75 bps rate hike

at the MAY 4 meeting, look the Hell out on the upside for the damage that

happens next!

I hit my screens for trading right at the European open and see the carnage

… nobody needs to explain to me what they did while I was asleep, price action

tells the complete story … although, looking back at Peter Pan’s presser, this

guy’s level of hubris and sense of invincibility is gonna lead his country to total

ruin … they think they’re bigger than the market … they think the CNTRL-P

machine spitting out YEN like popsicle sticks makes everything OK … “we can

just print even more, right?” … problem is, someday the bill comes due, and for

Japan it is NOW! … take the normal rules for FX trading and throw them out the

window for USDJPY, cuz this pair has no rules anymore … sure, there will be

ups/downs galore in this pair, but I would be very, very careful about being short

USDJPY … you’re playing with fire while pissing into a CAT 6 Hurricane wind!

… what can possibly go wrong?

Now here at the sun coming up in New York, you’ve  got to ask yourself “what’s

left?”, after a night that sees USDJPY with a 267 PIP range … sure, in this

present environment the day’s range can of course be extended … probably

won’t be, but when panic sets into a market’s mindset, strange & weird shit

almost always happens, and it’s almost impossible to accurately judge the level

of panic and how badly some people are caught the wrong way, or have a serious

case of FOMO … it can go a lot faster & farther than anybody can say.

In earlier blogs, I introduced what I call the “Day Traders / Scalpers Volatility

Ratio” [DTSVR], which is the relationship of a 60 period SMA of the m1 range of

any pair / by the spread + usual slippage … anything near or under 1:1 you must

ignore it for trading … over 1.5 : 1 is acceptable, but you really want to preferably

see > 2 : 1 … earlier in the Asian session, USDJPY was galloping along right

around the 15 [fifteen] : 1 ratio level, and now you know why it’s the most active in

20 years … that level is unsustainable, but it will give you an idea how bat shit

crazy [BSC] things were earlier … here as New York gets going, the USDJPY

DTSVR is about [6 - 7] : 1.

There simply is no let up in the demand to sell YEN … an almost 300 PIP range

today [so far, there’s still the afternoon] and even a shit GDP report is having

negligible effect on the rate … from a scalping / trading perspective, the day was

practically over before it even began … in the last 10 years [2500 trading days],

how many 300 PIP range days have there been? … dunno, but my guess would

be lower than 10, which is a fraction of 1% … staying long looking for more is a

fool’s errand.

Earlier today in the European session, one algorithm buy signal before things went

bat shit crazy [BSC] to the upside … TURNKEY PAMM UP SLIGHTLY … made back

about a third of the money stolen from us yesterday … as long as USDJPY can

keep decent ranges and trading activity, the low cost to trade make it an ideal

vehicle for either scalping or day trading … we won’t see many days with this kind

of scope, but we don’t need for USDJPY to be like Bitcoin … from my prior work

and research into USDJPY, all we need to see is about 60+ PIPS of movement in a

combined European / U.S. session, and the algorithm works with excellent results

… it’s when we get bullshit like 35 PIP ranges that present problems, simply cuz

the VIX isn’t high enough for statistical reliability for consistent profit from a trade,

cuz everything becomes a coin flip … with the BOJ and the FED on such large

divergent courses RE interest rate policy, I would think there’s a very high

probability ranges and trading conditions stay elevated and volatile for quite a

while … quite frankly, it reminds me of USDJPY pre financial crisis 2008, and

even going back before 2000 when the pair was a standout performer both

up/down, and to be truthful it’s what the central bank planners deserve when

they get everything shoved up their collective donkeys … here’s to more chaos!

Today’s opportunities for buy signals blown to Hell as soon as Kuroda started

talking last night … I don’t think we’ll see many days like this, unless there’s

more developments between the FED & BOJ … well, that’s gonna be hard to

maintain, but here we are … as far as trading markets go, “home” never looked

so good! … onto tomorrow.

… outta here  … “The future’s so bright I need sunglasses”!!😎😎

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

THE ENTIRE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS READY TO GO “TILT”

 

“When Idiots run things, bad things happen … get ready for a depression!”

The markets are being given ample warning, first with USDJPY, then with a

complete meltdown of other fiat currencies, and a “Stock Bellies” complex that

ain’t behaving … and the Lounge Lizards at the FED think they can turn it all

around with “words” … the ChiComs & Ruskies are showing them otherwise.

That thunderous mystery sound you heard over the horizon this morning? … yea,

that was me turning purple!

Fuck trading gold at Turnkey … getting raped with 80 cent slippage getting in

and about 30 cents getting out, you simply cannot trade something where you

are given a PHANTOM, BULLSHIT bid/offer spread, and then hosed by a thieving,

fucking crooked LP … matters not whether you win/lose on the trade, they don’t

discriminate when it comes to stealing money on bogus fills … your winners get

depleted, your losses get added onto … sure, I sent them all the supporting

evidence of the theft, and it won’t matter one bit … and the one certainty I can

say about Turnkey, is that they will NEVER go to bat for a client on a bogus fill

… ever.

Well, I can’t trade gold with a $1.50 - $2 effective spread, no matter how good &

great the trading algorithm is … this is pure Turnkey LP bullshit … have to go

back to USDJPY and live with the occasional FX bullshit there, along with crude

oil when they feel magnanimous enough to offer a 3 cent spread … today sees

oil inventories at 10:30 AM EST, and I have ZERO trust and/or confidence in

Turnkey to keep a 3 cent spread today going into that report … who knows when

they “click the switch” and blow the spread out, cuz it could be anytime … and of

course, I’m right on the money with this, as they’ve blown the spread back out to

7 - 8 cents and it stays there … we’re now $1 higher 10 minutes later, not what I’d

call a gigantic move by any stretch in oil, but nonetheless the thieving HFT

Turnkey uses as a “market maker” feels the need to gouge Turnkey clients cuz

they can … does Turnkey ever care about this? … nope, not EVER … and IMHO it’s

cuz they get part of the rip off spread + fill as their “kickback” for steering the

order to their favored partner … when questioned about this, they won’t say

“yes” or “no” you’re wrong, they simply deflect the question and provide ZERO

answer … well, if you don’t do it, then why would you refuse to say “no”, we

don’t do this? … well, we know the reason, and it’s cuz they do.

So now crude oil is blown to shit for the day, so on most days it will not be

available to us for trading at Turnkey … it is what it is, I can’t make them change

anything, they are who they are … and once again, it’s back to the ONLY 2

MARKETS TURNKEY OFFERS WHERE THE LP MARKET MAKERS AREN’T

COMPLETE THIEVES … which is EURUSD & USDJPY … and given the state of

the world at present, USDJPY is moving and trading better than EURUSD … so,

my first priority will be USDJPY, and if the situation arises that’s appropriate, I

might trade EURUSD as well … quite frankly, I should have never left USDJPY to

begin with, as it’s been the LOWEST SPREAD / LOWEST SLIPPAGE pair on the

board for like forever … won’t make this mistake again … and while the spread

in USDJPY has gone up a few tenths of a PIP in the last couple of months as the

daily ranges have exploded, that rise is commensurate with a consistent rise in

the ranges … a few tenths of a PIP ain’t gonna matter much to daily profitability

in the scheme of things.

I will readily admit, that I’m somewhat shocked to see this level of gold slippage

under the normal circumstances of trading … in too many markets, Turnkey is

reaching levels of slippage that are literally insane, and there’s no way anybody

can justify with a straight face the slippage we suffered today … this is literally,

THE LAST TIME I GET HELD UP … MUGGED … RAPED … and then told

everything is fine & normal … the only “normal” at Turnkey is in USDJPY &

EURUSD, and on days when they feel like it, maybe crude oil … everything else

is pure rip off bullshit, with phantom spreads and horrific off the market slippage

from the bid/offer, with gold & “Stock Bellies” leading the insanity charge. 

Make no mistake, I’m equally to blame as well, cuz I’ve listened to Turnkey’s

bullshit instead of focusing on what the markets tell me and how I’m being

treated … and once again, I sit here and feel like I just played “Whack-A-Mole”

and got snookered again by the same group of assholes … I’m here to make

money trading, not guess which group of thieving Turds I need to avoid today

… I’ve had it with these Assclowns, and it’s time I focused on markets I know they

don’t fuck with, which is EURUSD & USDJPY, and tell the rest to go take a frickin’

hike … performance I’m going to go get … time to focus on markets that

consistently are fair & honest in pricing & fills, and under that scenario the

trading algorithm is exceptional … and if your trading “Spoos” at a house you’re

happy with and you don’t have slippage & fill issues, then great cuz the algo will

shine for you … as we’ve seen, I can’t trade the “Spoos” at Turnkey cuz their

effective spread is about 2.3 index points, one of the worst spreads in history, but

that doesn’t mean others can’t … all I can do is stick to Yen & Euro and make

bread … all the other markets they offer are only going to hurt performance, piss

me off for trading ‘em, and not allow the trading algorithm to do its magic … so

no more these piddly ass games with Turnkey … fuck ‘em, they’re liars, while

most of their LP’s are petty thieves … even with some obstacles, simply cuz no

market is “perfect”, we’ll do just fine in EURUSD & USDJPY.

It only took me one algorithm buy trade today in gold to know this market has

seen the last of me at Turnkey … TURNKEY PAMM DOWN SLIGHTLY MORE

THAN 0.1% … I don’t really care about losing trades when they are very tiny, but

I get absolutely irate when I’ve been fucked by LP’s filling me off the market and

giving me bogus, shit fills … this won’t be happening again … in USDJPY tonight

in the Asian session … giddyup.

… outta here before my neck veins explode and the Mrs. makes me clean up the

mess! … “The future’s so bright I need sunglasses”!! 😎😎

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas