YOU DON’T GET SOMETHING FOR NOTHING IN TRADING

 

“So what’s the cost!!?”

You have to know who you are psychologically and how you want to trade … the

cost here is you have to be honest with yourself … you have to be disciplined and

show patience … you can’t care about the money, cuz it’s about the trade … and

you attempt to stay emotionally on an even keel, never getting giddy when

winning and never crying in your beer after a loss … at the end of the day, if you

lost money, it’s a very simple equation … did my algorithm or trading model fuck

me up, or was it me doing stupid shit … 99/1 says it was stupid shit … never get

mad at yourself for not seeing a move, only that you didn’t do what you were

supposed to do … these are some of the “costs to trade” … master them and

your life will change … ignore them or think I’m full of shit, keep score and let me

know how it goes.

Markets, no matter which one you want to concentrate and trade, ARE NEVER

ABOUT FACTS; PRICE IS DETERMINED BY “PERCEPTIONS”! … perceptions by

banker Elites to the financial MSM and large scumbag bank analysts everywhere

… the goalposts are ever shifting and the narrative always changes … one day it’s

the inflation bogeyman, and the next it’s something else … and ever since

January 2015, when we had the great “Swiss Debacle” in EURCHF, FX markets

have changed dramatically … outside of USDJPY, which cuz of insane central

bankstas, it gets tougher and tougher to find any long term trend for position

traders … it’s become a “traders market group”, where each and every day is its

own bull or bear market … granted, it’s never been cheaper in terms of cost to

trade anything in FX, where EURUSD @ IQCENT leads the way with a total cost

to trade EURUSD of 0.2 PIPS, and how beautiful is that?!

If I’m making money, call me anything you want … if I’m not, color me “wrong!”

… but the undeniable fact is, the longer your time horizon for trading, the more

that WILL GO WRONG, and the larger your loss parameters have to be inside

your trading model … there’s simply no way around this … why do you think

people used to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars to come to the floor to

trade? … cuz they liked Chicago or New York? … Hell no, it was to get the “edge”

and enjoy the cheapest, lowest cost on the planet to trade … well, we got that

now and it’s FREE! … and to have the mentality of “scalping” just makes sense

to me cuz it gives me the MAX FLEXIBILITY, and always has … and if it ain’t

broke, don’t fix it!

The “key to success” always has been, and always will be dependent on 2

factors … 1) getting the very best trading conditions that exist [lowest spread,

lowest commissions, and a house where LP’s don’t fuck you every chance they

get via slippage and are in bed with brokerage house management … not an easy

task!], and 2) each & every day finding the relatively easiest side of the trading

ledger to trade on, knowing it could be a 50/50 proposition or only slightly tilted

to one side or the other … but also knowing that no matter what, you got to be

disciplined and show patience in your trades … the market you’re trading doesn’t

give a shit you promised your pet rabbit that you’d go to Cancun for vacation

next month and you need to make money, or that your Porsche needs to get

tuned up … think about those things and you’re doomed!

Of course, it’s way easier to find the right market today than it was years and

decades ago, simply cuz you could only stand in one pit, while you can surf your

trading screen and change markets in 2 seconds … but regardless, the costs

never shift, and they’re always there. 

I laid out yesterday how to use the m15 in conjunction with the m1 for trading

… by default, I put RM=2 and RM=3 on the m15 chart … if conditions warrant, I

can always change very quickly [on the fly in 2 seconds] the RM=2 and make it

RM=4 if volatility increases … in more than 98%+ of all time periods, you won’t

have to make that change, but news events especially can easily change the

course of volatility … in most cases, I would start taking long entry scalp signals

if the m15 hits the RM=2 zone, and definitely if it hits the RM=3 zone … of course,

you need to be aware of the news, cuz usually that’s what it takes to get an RM=3

OR RM=4 reading, and judge whether or not to do this … and if not, that’s OK, just

wait for normal signals … by scrolling back in time over the history of any market

with the m15 on the MT4, and you can go back quite a ways (1 to 2 years easy),

you can get a very good idea how that market reacts to past volatility changes and

how you should trade them … this historical perspective can be very beneficial for

your trading, so take some time and do it! … and after you do it, you’ll see that the

RM levels are very accurate, ESPECIALLY IN THE “STOCK BELLIES” COMPLEX,

and should leave you in “shock & awe” they work so well … “if you can find

anything better, please let me know!”

Turning to today’s “Slots-A-Rama” inside the world’s most corrupt casino, the

ChiComs are thinking about “helicopter money” for the masses to get domestic

demand stimulated … right, like that’s ever worked … housing bullshit and FED

Lounge Lizard minutes in the afternoon highlight the trading day ahead of us,

which if overnight is any indication, it will be horribly slow … as always, cuz

we’re ALL interest rate traders now in case you just landed from Mars, the “fun &

games” in the 10 YR. will determine where everything goes … and of course, we

got a new “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] in rates, and their job is yield curve

control [YCC] … the new “bogeyman” on the horizon going forward will be the

literal explosion of the FED balance sheet, as they will gobble up Treasury fiat

like it’s turkey on Thanksgiving Day … how long will that scam work?

Well, it’s 7:30 AM EST in “Biden’s Gulag” [New York], and is it time to go to bed

yet? … slow? … no, completely comatose! … but don’t worry, the scumbag banks

will soon enough turn their attention to fleecing specs via fading order flow

… just remember, they need YOUR liquidity to get the best price for themselves

… don’t give it to ‘em!

USDJPY up 8 days in a row … the BOJ seems to make this easy don’t they?

… many things I don’t like about USDJPY, but you can’t deny its movement

relative to other FX pairs … more so than any other pair, USDJPY IS SUPER

HYPER SENSITIVE TO CHANGES IN U.S. RATES … the 10 YR. especially, since

that’s the benchmark for BOJ yield curve control [YCC] … this market tends to

get over positioned [take your pick, long / short] cuz of its importance as the

denominator of world non dollar crosses, as it by far has the largest positions

… I’ll trade it if I have to, and others I’m sure have differing opinions about this

pair, but if you do trade it versus EURUSD or GBPUSD, it can be a lot more

vicious in its spikes and run on stops … and if you can get the total cost down to

about 0.6 or 0.7 PIPS, EURJPY AND/OR GBPJPY can be good alternatives for

scalping … at IQCENT, only the dollar pairs make the cut, although AUDJPY is

an intriguing FX pair cuz they trade that at only the 2 decimal level, instead of

3 decimal … bid / offer spread is 0.01 with no commissions.

As we head into the London Fix, this must be some kind of joke, right? … yea,

it’s August, so you can make that excuse, but this action is worse than pathetic

… or pathetic-er … it’s pathetic-er-er-er! … what little movement in rates today

has seen almost nothing from FX, in terms of its usual volatility … good news

on the CPI front from Cable, and it’s holding up well … EURUSD just can’t do

Mr. Jack “Diddly” Squat, with less than a 40 PIP range for the entire day … 1.09

support holding so far, but it’s all about the 10 YR. and what happens next.

“Stock Bellies” finally starting to puke … a long way to go on the downside to fair

value IMHO, but what do I know? … the love affair with tech darlings shows no end

in sight [so far] … but that can change in a hurry … we need to see lower prices in

the AM, and then when Europe closes a strong rally … so far, it’s been the

opposite almost every day, with BTFD-ers buying from the NYSE open, and when

that’s over everything rolls over to new lows in a few hours … that dynamic has to

change.

Looking at FX pairs, the clear VIX winner today, like most days is USDCNH … a

good 3 PIP TOTAL COST [spread, no commission] at IQCENT from about 8 PM

EST - 9PM EST - next day’s London Fix at NOON in “Biden’s Gulag” … from there

to the NYSE close it most likely will go to 4 PIPS total cost, so be prepared … this

is the best LOWEST COST in USDCNH out there, and given the implosion in the

ChiCom economy and defaults all over the place by gigantic real estate

developers, it doesn’t look to me like the 400+ PIP 20 Day Range MA is gonna be

going lower anytime soon … just today a major PBOC news mouthpiece has

stated that the VIX we’re seeing now in USDCNH is “normal”, and nothing for the

government to worry about … TRANSLATION: It’s gonna get even more volatile

in the days / weeks / months ahead …and from my research, it’s about a 50/50

split between the Asian session on the one hand, and the European + U.S.

session on the other for range … bottom line is no matter when you come to

trade it, the algorithm signals and moves will be there!

Directly below, a screenshot from today of the m15 on the left, and the m1 on the

right with algorithm up and running … m15 has RM=2 & RM=3 … m1 HAS RM=1 &

RM=2 running … some great signals and some good trades.

click on chart to enlarge

Here a little after NOON EST, the range [so far] in USDCNH ~ 300 pips, so it’s

running a little below normal in terms of total range … still, the action is good

and on days when EUR, GBP, & JPY do nothing but chop around in tiny chunks

of bullshit, or even as a main trading pair, this is a good pair to trade … just

follow the algorithm … you can follow directions, right?

Once the London Fix comes, here comes a new high in the 10 YR. yield today

… you just have to wonder how long “Stock Bellies” can hold up before an eye

watering meltdown comes … and with increased Treasury borrowings coming,

and the need for the Chicoms to raise Trillions of Yuan for their pet monkey

projects, how the Hell do rates go lower without an economic DEPRESSION?

… but hey, maybe it’s what they want … remember, “never let a crisis go to

waste!”

No trades today for the PAMM … whaddaya want me to do with a 7 hour 20

PIP-ish range? … then it breaks mildly after the London Fix … OK, whatever

… for “The Syndicate” @ IQCENT, multiple trades in USDCNH and we’re UP

APPROXIMATELY 0.7% … some decent, good signals despite a lackluster range

… onto tomorrow!

…  OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

THE CHICOMS ARE "PUSHING ON A STRING"

 

“After 1 PIP in your profit direction!!”

Well, thank you ChiComs! … another day of “it’s over before it begins … 3 piddly

rate cuts in one day are gonna stimulate the economy? … sure, go with that idea

and PUSH ON THAT STRING! … plus some bad {lying] data sending USDCNH

skyward … thanks for playing “risk on / risk off” [RORO] at the ChiCom casino

… where’s Nicky Santoro when you need him?

All that’s left is U.S. Retail Sales, and it’s gonna take a sigma miss one way or the

other to move FX … we have started to see this way too often these last months /

years, as the ChiComs take over the world financially … let me say it again, why

do we even need New York for anything? …. Like Chicago, a first class shithole

run into the ground by clueless Libtards & Communists, and outside of the

money laundering that goes on at the NYSE open, what’s the point? … yesterday

a perfect example, when it’s only the first and last 30 minutes of the day that

matters and everything else is bullshit chop with ZERO interest and

trading action.

I have mentioned before the use of the slopes of the“Risk Models” [RM] volatility

level “zones” for support / resistance as a guide for which side of the scalping

equation to be on … the obvious risk, and it’s by no means minor in scope, is the

dreaded chop that can set in, and you get alternating, back & forth oscillations

that have you getting long on the way down and short on the way up … a decent

solution to this problem is to use the m15 candlestick and run the V3 algorithm

… you simply use higher RM levels … e.g., in EURUSD on the m1 I use RM=1 and

RM=2 and that will cover over 99.5% of all action in EURUSD … AT THE SAME

TIME ON A DIFFERENT CANDLESTICK CHART, I USE AN M15 WITH V3

ALGORITHM RUNNING AND RM=2 & RM=3 RUNNING … the UFT crossover *

slope and the slope of the RM’s will tell you which side of the ledger to be on for

MAX profit opportunity … you will be very close to EVERY TURN OF THE

MARKET BY ONLY A FEW PIPS [unless the turn is violent, like from some news

event] … directly below, the screenshot of both charts up and running … study

them carefully.

click on chart to enlarge

The m15 on the left has RM=2 and RM=3, and the m1 on the right has RM=1 and

RM=2 … the advantage of this type of setup, is that it prevents you from getting

hosed by a quick spike in price [up or down] without any kind of follow through,

that might otherwise get you into a position that’s a “one hit wonder” … the

disadvantage is that off bottoms and tops it’s a little slower to the right side of the

market … IMHO, it’s a good trade off, as you’re likely to get a lot more “one hit

wonders” than you are decent short term turns in the market … most turns take

time to make the turn and have to burn off excess long / short positions, or

attempts to take it one way or the other, and the vast majority aren’t “V’ shaped

bottoms or inverted “V” shaped tops … use this setup on every FX pair you trade,

but remember to use the USDCNH mql4 code for USDCNH … directly below

USDCNH … and for those who like to use the H1 or H4 charts, use RM=3 & RM=4

and experiment with those, depending on the pair … in any event, remember that

markets are fractal in nature, meaning what you see at the mirco level you also

see as you move out.

For FX, it’s ALL A YIELD GAME with the 10 YR T-Note. … 10 YR yield goes up, FX

pairs go down … 10 YR. yield goes down, FX pairs go up … and in the case of

USDCNH, over in ChiCom land [the Asian session], it’s all about the state run

ChiCom banks and what the PBOC does or doesn’t do … very little of this 55

PIP-ish range today in EURUSD [so far] has anything to do with anything else

… of course, scumbag LP banks play the front running game with order flow, so

there’s always that, and the V3 algorithm attempts to model that.

The ChiComs are already driving their way to a worldwide DEPRESSION, so the

question becomes, how long can the BTFD-ers keep ‘Stock Bellies” elevated

before a mini meltdown? … or a major meltdown? … one of the dirty little secrets

about getting rich trading any of the “Stock Bellies” is avoiding getting whacked

from the back “6” of the “88/6/6” paradigm … cuz when it comes it’s usually very

nasty in scope, and much quicker than the front “88” … the infatuation with the

tech darlings is the biggest bubble of all time, and when that ends [which at some

point it will] it will be epic in scope.

We reach the London Fix, and not much to show for range in FX, but the trading

action was good … got to my screens late today, and we had the retail sales BS

at 8:30 AM EST to avoid, so it was kind of a shortened day … still, some good

signals in both USDCNH & EURUSD … one decent algo buy signal in EURUSD

... PAMM UP SLIGHTLY … for “The Syndicate”, over at IQCENT UP SLIGHTLY AS

WELL … onto tomorrow!

…  OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas