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Showing posts with label volatility. Show all posts
Showing posts with label volatility. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

THE ROLE & IMPORTANCE OF IVIX

“Understand it, or the lack of it, or it kills you!”

You can’t make money trading with no IVIX [intraday volatility] … and so few of
you reading this have any clue how important it actually is … you spend
countless hours analyzing “price”, but without proper IVIX, it’s all meaningless
… and in today’s different piles of manipulated horseshit, a/k/a “markets”, or
what’s left of them, our options to trade anything meaningful grow smaller by the
month … FX most days a complete boring mess … gold a joke cuz of the
“traders tax” being shoved down our throats … “Stock Bellies” offer opportunity,
but the risks are exponential … and it all hinges on manipulator’s control over
volatility.

Most days, they still control FX, including gold, but the “Genie” is out of the bottle
in “Stock Bellies”, and IMHO she isn’t going back in anytime soon … and as I
have said before, it’s a “negative feedback loop”, where the more things go out of
control, bat shit crazy, the more they become bat shit crazy cuz liquidity &
volumes shrink … over the last few years, each crisis gets worse, the FED’s
response gets more insane, and markets thus react more violently … there comes
a point, when the “gig” is up.

Your trading model must address IVIX, and you had better understand its
“limitations”, or they carry your ass out toes up … most of you follow indicators
and rely on shit the banks have made famous for “fading” … feel manipulated yet?
… does your model have “real time” indicators that can’t be manipulated by
anyone, or does it just rely on “lagging” bullshit, which is like driving a car via
the rear view mirror? … “it’s all champagne & strawberries until you hit that first
curve at high speed, and then can’t figure out why 30% of your capital is gone”.

Today is end of quarter … the Asian session dead, meaning the “Chuckleheads”
checks haven’t cleared yet … Europe comatose as usual lately, wanting no part
in anything except “chop” … and again, as I wrote about days ago with Bank of
America head FX “pooh bah”, lamenting the fact nothing means nothing anymore
except what the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] does with U.S. stocks, how can
you trade FX when nothing means anything anymore? … bottom line? … nothing in
FX will move today until “Stock Bellies” decide to go one way or the other after
the NYSE session opens … “Yup, fucking pathetic … this is what you get with
government intervention in everything, as normal markets are bastardized into
“zombie” piles of shit that only attract flies”!

There’s a reason I trade at PRIMEXBT and why I’m starting a PAMM program there,
with or without reader support … it’s called “instantaneous fills with no slippage,
tight bid/offer spreads, and acceptable round turn commissions”, where the
priceless trading algorithm can “do it’s thing” and money flows like water from a
spring … that’s the cupcake … the icing on this cupcake is everything else
PRIMEXBT offers … NO KYC [privacy, security, anonymity], lowest margins
anywhere, account balance in the world’s most valuable currency Bitcoin
[BTCUSD], and availability & diversity of markets I can trade.

There’s a reason the trading algorithm is priced very high [currently 0.10 BTCUSD,
but will go much higher shortly] … “I don’t really want you to have it, and in order
for you to get it, pay up if you’re serious … otherwise, go chase a moving average
crossover”! … thousands of hours put into its development, and most of you
despite it’s brilliance, would only fuck it up with useless bullshit from losing
strategies anyway … and what you learn when you’re in this “great game” of
trading, is that when you give away ideas for free or very little cost, you attract
the absolute worst elements of human nature.

And despite having said that, it can all be “taken away” by the banks with their
“robbery schemes” they institute daily … when they front run corporate orders,
and their illegal prop desks spike the market … the complete bullshit “mystery
ticks” on bid/offers … and of course, the “slippage meter” getting set on their
HAL9000 computer systems, where every market order gets mugged, then raped,
and you get your fill off the market by a not insignificant amount … and the
bigger your volumes, the more important it is to minimize this “highway robbery”
and put an end to it … and unless you have the ability to get fills like you want
[instantaneous], the scumbag LP banks are guaranteed to rip your head off and
shit down your throat AT EVERY OPPORTUNITY.

And while I don’t know this for 100% certainty, my guess is PRIMEXBT has no
American banks on their “liquidity provider” list … and in fact, also uses the 3
largest hedge funds and/or HFT’s on earth [BlackRock, Citadel, & Virtu] as LP’s
… with nanosecond capabilities, filling orders in a handful of milliseconds for
brokerage house accounts is child’s play … but for us, it’s 50X - 80X+ FASTER
than shitbox houses that could care less the LP’s are holding your order to screw
it … “shall I mention names, or do you get the drift”? And nowhere is this more
important than in today’s manipulated markets … it’s the scumbag banks major
source of income, and quite frankly I don’t want to contribute!

Sure, if everyday FX pairs had consistent 100+ PIP ranges, and IVIX was stable at
higher levels, most people could overlook the stealing the banks do … BUT WE
DON’T HAVE THESE CONDITIONS, at least not consistently in FX … it’s 160 PIPS
one day, and 55 the next … only in “Stock Bellies” do you get the kind of IVIX, FX
needs to see on a daily basis … but in order to be there, you need “bullet proof”
risk control … I can get that at PRIMEXBT, but I can’t get that at COINEXX OR
TURNKEY … and if you’re paying a high price to trade anything in the crypto
space, these last 2 weeks of “nothing burger ranges”, it’s gonna  hurt … throw in
terrible IVIX lately in GBPUSD, and given what I have just written about, it
shouldn’t be any mystery why the trading algorithm hasn’t done much or
returned much in Cable over the last few weeks … what good does it do if it
moves while you’re asleep and puts in a decent range, then you come along and
turn your screen on and it’s “death on a stick” for the next 9 hours, muddling
about in worthless bullshit chop? … or it moves at the “speed of light” and you’re
either forced to do nothing or buy rallies and/or sell breaks? … yea, no thanks.

So here we are, the last day of Q2 2020, and 15+ hours into the day Cable doesn’t
even have a 60 PIP range … so far, another bucket of shit trading day in FX … ho
hum, nothing unusual about that … but then “Stock Bellies” open and it’s a whole
different story, cuz now FX wakes up and from near the low, it’s a straight up the
fucking wall ramp that leaves no prisoners … no algo buy signals cuz there aren’t
any corrections, and “no Skippy 6 - 8 PIPS isn’t a correction … nobody knows why,
but I can tell you why … quarter end flows that made institutions around the world
scramble on the last day of the quarter and banks made them pay up as all of their
shit got front runned … and of course once it’s done, goodbye & goodnight cuz
there won’t be any more the rest of the day cuz it’s “sleepfest” time with the
criminal New York banks … welcome to FX.

Meanwhile, unless something happens towards the NYSE close, the DOW30 set to
have its worst range day since February 19, a full 60% under it’s 20 Day Range MA
… “Stock Bellies” not participating in the FX buy orgasm for fiat … and so I’m left
sitting here and just chuckling, cuz if you don’t laugh at all of this manipulative
horseshit, it will drive you insane with rage.

No trades today in the TURNKEY PAMM / MAM.

No trades cuz no signals … before the NYSE open, Cable hadn’t even hit my
minimum threshold for market IVIX before I trade it … once stocks opened, it’s a
flat out race to the top for the next 90 minutes into the European close, and the
last hour pure chop bullshit … there’s the day … and unless you buy rallies, you
sit … I don’t buy rallies.

Again today, while waiting for Cable to do somethin, I traded the DOW30 at
PRIMEXBT… bid/offer spread excellent, and the commissions a “tad” high, but the
way this puppy moves, and the range it usually puts in, fractions of an index point
or even 1 - 2 index points isn’t gonna make any difference … at Turnkey you’d
suffer that in MINIMUM slippage guaranteed, so what’s the difference really, you’re
still better off? … and once the PAMM is up and running, I’ll be trading some
DOW30 cuz I can manage risk at PRIMEXBT, cuz It’s a pure PAMM, and I don’t have
to worry about trade allocation with small accounts.

Outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas


Friday, November 15, 2019

WHAT TODAY’S “HUSTLE” LOOKS LIKE

“Thug life! … just like how the FED “muscles” America into submission!”

The assclown from the Browns should go the way of A.B. … “thanks, but no
thanks” to your playing career … wanna be a thug? … great, go hustle for a
Libtard DEM in any of America’s inner cities and “get out the vote” for ‘em
… use your hay maker helmet “skills” to good use rousing up voters to toe the
line … as for the “National Felons League” [a/k/a the NFL], it’s time to make an
example of this dirt bag, but don’t look for that to happen … boys will be boys and
all that shit … given the nature of the criminal assault that was perpetrated on
another individual with a deadly weapon, namely a football helmet that could
have killed him, that had literally ZERO to do with football, it will be interesting to
see how the NFL spins this … how do all the other “felons” in the league feel
about this? … the serial domestic abusers, etc., and the guys who get in bar
fights about 10 times a year, what are they to think? … life is trading, trading is
life …  but why should anybody be surprised? … this is what the FED does every
frickin’ day, in a metaphorical sense, when it manipulates markets, and do you
see anybody upset about that?

Where are all the protesters? … you know, the ones out in front of some building
with signs, and some old Geezers walking around screaming unfairness, and all
the other rot … so where are they? … of course, I’m talking about all the folks out
there who are unhappy with high stock prices … prices of shares in Murica’s
biggest companies, that get manipulated higher for no reason whatsoever, other
than the mystery “hustle” almost 100% of Sheeple in America know nothing about,
and even if they did could care less … the fact that it will eventually force a
complete collapse of financial markets and most likely bring about heads rolling
down some streets doesn’t seem to concern anybody … drink up, party on, cuz it
can never stop until it does, under its own weight.

Yesterday after I posted, a complete “circus shitshow”, as first another bogus
headline about the “China trade deal” drops the DOW30 more than 80 points in a
second to a new low for the day by 4 index points [got to get them sell stops first
before we blow the lid off things], then rocket it back within 11 minutes to where
it was before the planted headline … now, wait for it cuz this is where it really gets
good.

Wait ‘till the final bell is through in Gotham, and then send ½ of the comedy team
of “Kudlow & Mnuchin” out to a microphone somewhere, and let him mumble
something about how the trade deal is going along swimmingly fantastic, and the
“deal” is gonna get done, and Bingo!, Bango!, Boom!, stocks take off in an orgasm
of buying in the dark when nothing is open except some bucket shop on the West
Coast, in Hawaii, or someplace near “Lord of the Rings” … so, another episode of
a market that rockets when the light are off, markets are closed, and it doesn’t take
much to move anything … well, from the manipulators perspective it’s “mission
accomplished” … shorts get destroyed, insiders get rich, the banks got to pick off
the sell stops and fill them to their own accounts, and Joe Public sees his 401(k)
go up … so who’s gonna bitch exactly?

A great article today over on ZH from David Stockman [link directly below],
highlighting the scam of foreign policy regards Ukraine, and how when you dissect
it and study it, it’s nothing more than a gigantic money laundering scheme for
Libtards … the same analysis, if done on modern day financial trading, would
leave the world “shocked & stunned” at the criminality and theft of billions … of
course, don’t look for it anytime soon, cuz to many palms get greased for it to
stop … and trust me, nobody in power anywhere wants to see it stopped.


So, we start the day with the “Kudlow Hustle”, and from there it’s nothing but
heartburn, as the DOW30 goes sideways to lower overnight … not to worry,
Trump can always trot him out again for his little pony show, and stocks can rally
some more … they’ll play this card until it doesn’t work anymore. And even if that
happened, it doesn’t matter cuz they’d find another dope to do the bidding … all
with the same purpose, which is to have stocks at all time recorder-er-er-er highs
come election day 2020 … who the hell with a job, is gonna vote for a Libtard,
socialist, communist, job killing, tax raising, piece of shit DEM? … that’s the plan,
and it unfolds almost with perfection every day.

The stock indices algorithms, those highlighted in the “Traders Course” [TC],
chapter 6 for U.S. stock indices [DOW30, SP500, NDX100], take the underlying
premise of the “88/6/6” trading paradigm and make it work almost to perfection
… almost, cuz nothing is 100% guaranteed in trading … eventually, EVERYTHING
NO MATTER HOW STUPID OR UNCONVENTIONAL must happen, and there is a
probability wave function attached to every trade ever made or is going to be made
in the future.

In other words, no “Holy Grail” exists or ever will exist, meaning if you chase
Unicorns you’re going to be very disappointed … having said that though, when
your probability of success [profit] is in the 90’s, the only thing that will hurt you is
yourself … meaning, over leverage, meaning lack of discipline & patience, and
meaning you FOMO [Fear Of Missing Out] on every “Hoover Dam” trade you make.
If the trading paradigm holds, and it has in spades since the FED got involved with
markets “bigly & yuge” in February 2016, then the TC is priceless!

So, we start the day with stocks sharply higher, and if the past is any indication of
what happens today, all we’ll see is the “protect & defend” money laundered  gains
overnight strategy from our Overlord Masters … “we gamed the market, now all we
gotta do is keep it here and bleed shorts some more into the weekend” … welcome
to FED QE on steroids, and the new old “funny money” fairy tale gains in stocks
on vapors and bullshit! … might as well trade it and make money from them.

Stocks open to some volatile trading within minutes … but hey, no matter the
constant slew of negative corporate & economic reports that keep coming in
telling the story about how the world is going to the shithouse, that doesn’t matter
… all that matters is the fucking FED and QE, and the funny money sloshing
around to support it in spades … and then BOOM!, it’s off to the races for a new
high for the day … this is the most manipulated shit I’ve ever seen in my life, and
it defies explanation or belief to see it climb every fucking day with almost no
corrections at all, as the 0.0001% Elites literally refuse to let this shit correct … it
simply makes the inevitable correction, when it comes, a bloodbath for sell stops
… oh, it’ll come, but from what level and how bad will it be?

There is no way I’m buying this happy horseshit on the way up … forget that
… just have to wait and be patient, no matter where or what it does … you wanna
be a millionaire? … first you don’t get whacked, and they you play the high
probability paradigm of the trading model, and then you make the trades where
the scumbag manipulators work for you … at 50+% a year return, you’ll get there
a helluva lot sooner than you think! … but, you can’t get caught up in the FED
hype, you can’t get whacked, and you have to show discipline … if you don’t, they
take your money and you’re gone … be an idiot betting $10 on a football game,
not in trading.

Noon EST in Gotham, and what we’ve seen today since the NYSE open, is what I
would label, “volatility violence” … brief spurts of frenzied trading with large M1
ranges, than just a s quickly the M1’s go “dark” into a shell where you’re lucky to
see moves over a minute of 3 points from the bid … this dearth of “flow” in trading
is important, cuz it underscores the lack of free trading and highlights the extent
to which the manipulators control bid prices, and by default price cannot drop
… until of course they cancel the bids, and then bank traders seeing this start
selling longs and it feeds upon itself for a minute or two  … then the manipulator
bids come back and it’s panic city to the upside … this is all that has happened
today, cuz while it’s nice shit goes higher, they won’t allow it to go lower.

This “volatility violence” is like a drive by shooting, impossible to predict, and it’s
on you quicker than you realize … and everybody looks around and wonders just
WTF is going on here, cuz this ain’t natural … this today … this is not how free
markets trade … the DOW30 today is how manipulated markets trade drugged
with QE.

In the scheme of NIRP, this action all makes sense, cuz when you think about it, if
you wait you won’t have the chance to deploy billions into stocks without getting
raped … who cares what happens to that point in 2024 or shortly thereafter when
we most assuredly either start or already are in NIRP, hook, line & sinker. There
isn’t any other scenario that makes economic sense … it sure as shit ain’t
earnings prospects, CAPEX growth, or other parts of the world that are growing
that are vaulting stocks higher … nope, it’s QE drug money by the head cartel
member, the FED, along with their BFF’s the corporate buyback scam artists who
make “earnings” appear out of thin air by reducing the company stock’s float in
the public arena. By all measures in finance, the DOW30 should be at about 15,000
if its lucky, but here we are drugged up with QE, from a FED that simply says the
private pension system must be preserved cuz the “Boomers” vote … and we
must do anything / everything to delay the revolution, where heads will roll in the
street, and keep the mob from putting us under the Guillotine … “yea, good luck
with that”!

Essentially, the stock market is as big a scam as the gold market, only in reverse
… someday it ends, but as a professional trader, that day could be a very long
while in getting here, so you have to adapt to the trading paradigm you’re in, or
else you can visit the dinosaurs in the graveyard, cuz that’s where you’ll be
headed. The difference is, at least in Murica, stocks are a much bigger deal than
gold ever thought of being … outside the U.S., not as much … but just as the crash
of ‘87 got an entire generation out of stocks, the game being played today sees
many more people, much bigger sums of money, and the disaster waiting for
investors awaits us in the future … until that time, through that time, and after
that time, unless the FED has disappeared and the last thing anybody is
concerned about is trading, the FED will still be attempting to call the shots,
nothing will have materially changed, and the TC algorithms will still be producing
gains in excess of 50+% per year … others will be scratching their heads if they
have any money left, but who cares, I’m not them.

And what you see today in the DOW30 trading action IS A SCAM … no question in
my mind, but don’t ever expect the financial MSM to report on it or question it, cuz
that would piss off the FED and lead to you not being invited to the next softball
Q & A session, where we can find out about Spicoli’s favorite color of ties, or some
such shit as that … all you have to do is look at the action of the M1’s … hell, it was
more volatile than this at 2 AM EST, than it is right in the heart of the NYSE day
… WTF is that?... how does that happen? … and then at some point, one of the
HFT algos will spike the living shit out of the DOW30, one direction or another,
based on nothing but horseshit and vapors, and if you get caught in it, you have
to understand you have NO CHANCE of making it back today … so many will
double or triple up losing positions, thinking it will get them out of the jam they’re
in … and about 90% of the time they’ll be right! … and they’ll think their genius is
the key to making money, when in fact you’ve just lost the farm but don’t know it
yet … and when that other part of the bell curve shows up, your account is gone
or severely hurt, and it’s either start over or leave the game … this is why good
professional traders never do this, cuz they don’t particularly feel like asking
somebody, “would you like fries with that order”?! 

The scam here, to get specific, is the overriding role the manipulators play in
playing with their bids, and how they attempt to “mind fuck” other traders by
cancelling orders then putting them back in, etc. ... other banks not in the loop,
and other hedge funds that aren’t on board with the FED agenda … and believe
you me, there are a lot of these players that have been burned in the last couple
of years “bigly & yuge” … sadly, as smart as they think they are, they’re not smart
at all cuz they refuse to entertain the trading paradigm we’ve been in since
February 2016, and still think that shit like earnings, corporate guidance, and
economic statistics matter … they don’t … and they misread the FED constantly
… just look at the last year and tell me they know what’s going on, cuz they don’t
have a clue.

Well, here we are in the P.M. of New York, and with Europe closed now and the
criminal New York banks in charge of FED policy until 4 PM EST, it doesn’t look
like we’re gonna get any kind of corrective break we can take advantage … and if
we did get one, would you want to take it with no time on the clock? … my
assumption my entire trading career has been, “HELL NO!”, but don’t let my
opinion shield you from getting whacked. From a trading perspective, today has
been a disaster … a slow motion train wreck … a very volatile opening, followed by
a 3 minute blitz to the upside … sideways to maybe slightly higher bias the rest of
the day, with M1’s getting smaller as time goes by until the next M1 explosion … in
other words, a successful “protect & defend” the gains from the money laundering
blitz saw earlier after Kudlow’s comments the night before … you somehow think
Kudlow came up with that shit on his own? … three retarded kittens and a deaf
monkey have more brain power, and most likely could do a better job than him
… and he’s one of the smart ones! … good grief.

So, today shot to hell, with no algorithm buy signals to take … just didn’t get any,
plain & simple as that … on to Monday for more opportunity … blog update on
Sunday, where I’m thinking the DOW30 20 Day Range MA gets beaten down again,
to new yearly lows or close to it … we’ll see … until Sunday mi amigos
… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody! 

-vegas