CAN GOLD TRADE AGAIN IN NEW YORK?

“And he still couldn’t get a girlfriend before he died!!”

As ZH points out today it’s a never ending story that gets boring, simply cuz the

trajectory of national debt and interest costs only knows one direction … up, up

& away exponentially! … the link directly below.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cbo-director-warns-debt-market-meltdown-

us-debt-unprecedented-trajectory

And for the umpteenth million time, today is just like another day of “shit happens

in the Asian and early European sessions”, and then it’s “pretend & maybe extend

a little” some pitiful price action in New York for gold … why start a war with the

Banana Republic when you can bankrupt them and make their fiat worthless, all

the while the Yuan gets backed by gold bullion and capital flows move very

quickly to China? … the data doesn’t lie, as Swiss exports of gold to China from

their refiners, shows a big jump at the start of 2024 and it hasn’t let up one bit

… directly below the data from Bloomberg.

click on any image or chart to enlarge

Meanwhile, the clueless Uniparty Dopes in the U.S. borrow money at the RATE

OF $1 TRILLION DOLLARS EVERY 100 DAYS, and then get to pay interest on

that debt … and you wonder why gold and crypto are headed North to

unfathomable levels in the future? … gold would need to be priced around the

value of $60K per OZ., if the U.S. still has any left of the approximate 260 million

OZ. the FED says they have but won’t let anybody actually verify that number

with an audit, and if they stopped borrowing money today! … well guess what?

… that ain’t gonna happen!!

The real question for me, IS CAN IT TRADE ON THIS SIDE OF THE GLOBE AND

GIVE US OPPORTUNITY FOR PROFIT, OR IS EVERYTHING A FUNCTION OF

CHINA IN THE ASIAN SESSION? … quite frankly, $10 - $15 ranges for New York

is pathetic for a market that finds itself at $2200, and North America is

considered the “primary market” … we should be seeing $20 - $30+ ranges in

New York but aren’t even coming consistently close to that right now … I expect

that to change here very shortly! … buckle up Skippy, the potential outlook for

gold to go much higher and for ranges to be extended is very promising … place

your perspective on gold as if it’s simply a crypto currency in very high central

bank demand … it makes much more common sense!

Looking at the 20 Day Range MA & MEDIAN values I publish on the Sunday

update, unless SHTF in a major way I don’t see the crypto pairs BTC and/or ETH

extending values in a major way going forward, and if anything slowing down

into the BTC “halving” and the utter confusion created by a feckless SEC towards

an ETF for ETH … this should slow MOMO down some for the immediate future

… on the other hand, gold is in the MOST SILENT BULL MARKET IN HISTORY,

with almost no retail participation I can see with silver lagging badly … the

ChiComs and other central banks are the main drivers, and I don’t expect them to

abandon gold or start selling anytime soon, like forever! … why should they?

… the U.S. is destroying itself, while they accumulate every ounce they can get to

eventually back the Yuan fully with gold … and to the same extent, the Ruskies

are in the same boat … in other words, gold looks poised for better trading action

… and that means I’ll be looking at it closely earlier in the day, starting my trading

around 5 - 6 AM EST … if it dies, then it dies and I’ll adjust, but I would be

shocked if all of a sudden the ChiComs started to ignore gold.

Currently on the m15, I have RM=3 [ORANGE] & RM=4 [RED] as support /

resistance levels … if going forward these levels start to get consistently hit,

I’ll adjust volatilities higher and post the new gold mq4 in “Download Links”

… today’s m15 chart directly below.

As I have previously stated, where traders go wrong in determining support and

resistance, it’s cuz they only focus on price and ignore volatilities … you simply

have to know generally where VIX is, and the RM levels determine that quite

nicely! … on the m1, current gold RM’s are at RM=2 & RM=3 … into the New York

afternoon, and so far New York has about an $11 range for the day … pathetic,

simply pathetic, but there’s enough in that to scalp but I would be hesitant to keep

trades on for a longer day trade in this environment.[And as I write gold has just

hit a new high for the day, after screwing around for hours inside of chop … the

m15 high gave way, and it’s off to the races … quite frankly, there isn’t any place

for shorts to go except for extreme short term scalps, and if you’re wrong,

you’re gone! … gold now, around 1 PM EST, with about a $38 dollar per OZ.

daily range, and about a $20 range in New York, which is where I said previously

it should be experiencing … all it has to do now is remain relatively consistent,

or go even higher!]

On this latest move upward, directly below a screenshot of the m15 [left] and the

m1 [right] with RM levels and the full algorithm . when any market, crypto or gold

moves, it doesn’t get any better than this.

When that m15 high at 19:00 got taken out, all of the algorithm parameters were

lined up for a move higher … both m1 and m15 were “white”, and the histogram

of the simple EMA MACD [8 period fast, 15 period slow] MOVED OVER THE

LEVEL 0 YELLOW LINE.

ETH price action today disappointing, not cuz of a lack of price movement, but

cuz of restricted range movement after a sizeable move in late Asia … that

usually means chop, and sure enough we got it … only one trade in ETH fr the

PAMM today, and WE’RE UP SLIGHTLY … ONTO TOMORROW AND GOLD!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

WHICHEVER TRADING MARKET DOES BEST, I’M THERE!

 

“The right algo … “arb scalping” … the right brokerage house = $$$$$!!”

Today’s main feature presentation of volatility in everything comes at 8:15 AM

EST, with ADP job numbers … this the supposed “private sector” only jobs

report, that historically can be radically different than the math whiz kids over

at the Dept. of Unicorns & Fairy Tales, which we get Friday morning … I’m

hoping we get a sigma miss from expectations [up/down, who cares?] … what I

want is “spec chaos” over at IQCENT in USDJPY … you know, “Twilight Zone”

shit … and if we don’t get it, no big deal, it’s back to normal programming of

spec MOMO & FOMO.

USDJPY is a scumbag bank LP’s “highlight reel”!, where stops are always in

sight to be butchered like a hog, and FX traders everywhere got short fuses

… they learn quickly, that “the first rats that jump the ship, get to come back

later and do it again & again” … the ones that don’t go down with the ship … in

other words, those that panic first get to panic later … a self fulfilling prophecy

amongst the spec community, not only in crypto, but in Yen as well

… “arb scalping a must here!”

When crypto isn’t moving at a healthy clip, “arb scalps” get tough to find … any

kind of choppy action is gonna lead the LP at IQCENT to not let the bid/offer in

crypto pairs move much … chop in crypto sees the offer move up while the bid

remains constant … hitting the buy button is gonna see you go orbital, cuz your

fill has been robbed, mugged, & raped … I’ve written in previous blogs how

IQCENT makes its money from traders … very razor thin spreads, and no

commissions, so where’s the money come from for management’s yachts &

mansions, whether it’s in crypto or USDJPY? … it comes from splitting a silent

“traders tax” that gets applied when somebody buys upticks or sells down ticks,

somewhere outside of current market bid/offer quotes elsewhere, like at primary

dealers … “arb scalping” reverses this, and allows us to benefit from spec

dislocations in price, when buying, when TEMA 13 is OVER SMA 7, HL/2 … cuz

all I’m doing is “basis” trading … under normal USDJPY conditions, the basis of

IQCENT versus Coinexx is anywhere from -4 PIPS to +4 PIPS … when SHTF on

either econ reports, POL and/or Apparatchik “blah blah, yada yada”, or buy/sell

stops [which are always ever present!], if the market moves are big enough in

the m1 [around 20+ PIPS, the more the merrier], the “basis” is most likely gonna

go bat shit crazy [BSC] … not at all guaranteed of course, but highly probable

… and then we’re talkin’ about 20 - 30+ PIP discounts or premiums that

evaporate in seconds … when the specs at IQCENT panic, they don’t fuck around!

So what leads any LP to go this route, of being off the primary market so badly?

… it isn’t just specs at brokerage houses the LP serves, it’s also the fact, IMHO,

that smaller to medium sized financial institutions all over the world [numbering

in the thousands at a minimum] get spot transactions in USDJPY that come from

their modest trading desks getting corporate or institutional flow in one of the

many YEN crosses … could be South African Rand / USDJPY OR ANY OF THE

DOZENS OF OTHERS THAT FALL OUTSIDE THE BIG 2 OF EURJPY AND GBPJPY

… that financial institution gives their clients a bid/offer that’s wide, very wide

… they take the order and then since their not in the business of “trading”, get

to their source of liquidity, which could be “”Thompson Reuters”, the LP at

IQCENT … the bank is most likely taking in local currency, so that’s not the

problem for them … the problem is USDJPY, which they don’t need or want on

their books … and when that side of the equation gets quoted, they’ll get

“scalped” themselves getting rid of USDJPY by IQCENT’S LP … and thus we see

at times these fantastic “arb scalps” you’ll never ever see EVAHHHHHHH!, on

the MT4 at Coinexx or any other place … you don’t get it, THEY GET IT! … and

it’s happening all the time! … bottom line is, “FX is just like crypto, only you

only see it in crypto cuz everything all over the world is DECENTRALIZED, and

therefore open for all to see … FX is CENTRALIZED, meaning the top 5 or 6

mega world banks, led by JPM, make the market from which everybody feeds

… and that means on the MT4 or MT5, you get to ALWAYS buy the offer or sell

the bid, take it or leave it … “arb scalping” changes that, and now we get to join

the “club” … why would anybody ever buy USDJPY at the Coinexx offer [or any

other house where you’re locked in just like at Coinexx], when we can buy it at a

DISCOUNT TO THE BID!? 

The “SortVolume.mq4” indicator over in “Download Links” is exactly what I’ve

been looking for to add into the MT4, to get a clue as to collective spec activity

in buying tops and selling bottoms in non crypto markets like USDJPY, when the

market is under relatively “normal” trading conditions … by giving us BOTH BUY

VOLUME [LIMEGREEN] AND SELL VOLUME [RED] in the same m1 candlestick,

we get a much better picture of what’s going on in real time … and how it’s

determined is from the LP, which in the case of Coinexx, most likely it’s an HFT

[High Frequency Trader] like Citadel, Black Rock, or Virtu OR from EBS

[Electronic Banking System] from the collective likes of the top 5 LP’s in FX

… either way, it should be relatively equal … up volume is when anybody buys

the offer in USDJPY from a bank or the HFT, and sell volume is when anybody

sells the bid in USDJPY from a bank or the HFT … it’s measured in real time and

changes during the m1, and gives us a very meaningful snapshot of spec activity

… make sure you incorporate it into your MT4 platform for non crypto markets!

On Sunday’s blog post coming up in a few days, I’ll be releasing a new Adobe

pdf that guides you step-by-step through LONG “arb scalping” AND algorithm

trading using TEMA, SMA, and the “SortVolume.mq4” indicator … instead of

ALWAYS being at the mercy of some scumbag bank or HFT, you’ll discover and

hopefully implement the concepts that will always see you buying at a

DISCOUNT to the primary market … you want an “edge” in trading?

… well here it is!

Turning to today’s trading action, inside the world’s most corrupt casino, and

didn’t that escalate quickly? … a softer ADP jobs number of 103K jobs with the

consensus expectation of 130K … and down goes Frazier! … as with most m1

blowouts on reports, the discount isn’t gonna take place the m1 of the report, it’s

gonna come in the immediate minutes after the number, and today was no

exception … directly below, a pretty nice “arb scalp” that took 11 seconds when

IQCENT WAS DISCOUNT TO COINEXX BY 15 PIPS! 

After that, it didn’t take long for all of FX to go to shit in a handbag … 20 hours

into a 24 hour day, and USDJPY with an anemic 63 PIP range … EURUSD with a

pathetic 34 PIP range [what the Hell is up with that?] … gold I think is closed cuz I

haven’t seen it move more than a buck or two the entire day …. Crypto doing OK

in the Asian & early European sessions, but like everything else, when New York

enters the picture markets go to shit, thank you FED manipulators … yet, and

this is important … even on a shit day, “arb scalps” in USDJPY do just fine in

bringing home the bacon! … as I’ve said before, when crypto slows down to a

crawl, it’s very tough to find “arb scalps” worth taking, cuz unless you’re right

there watching for it, the LP in a millisecond will start raising the offer, and if

you’re a half second late, you ain’t gonna like the fill one “Hoover Dam” bit,

whether you’re trading BTC, ETH, MATIC, XRP, SOL, or DOGE.

After the ass mauling gold took on Monday, it more than likely is gonna take

some time for gold to get back on its horse … maybe a blowout sigma miss on

jobs to the downside come Friday via NFP, or maybe the FED meeting on

DEC. 12 provides an unexpected spark … and if that doesn’t do it, gold is

“dead money walking” ‘til the start of 2024, at the earliest … and while we will

patiently wait for gold to get its “sea legs” once again, “til that time the PAMM

moves trading over to USDJPY … we can’t “arb scalp”, but the algo signals

are there.

A good day for “The Syndicate”, and a boatload of USDJPY trades on modest

volumes, and we’re UP APPROXIMATELY 1.1% … onto tomorrow.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

CRYPTO DYNAMICS: ALL THAT MATTERS IS “MOMO & FOMO”

 

“The end comes quickly for those that FOMO!!”

We “arb scalp” cuz it’s available to us, and it has a very high probability of

success … it’s simply what the LP does on the MT4 without you seeing it and

it’s what every “arb” firm does on crypto “open order book” [OOB] platforms

… but instead of taking on all comers, I’m a bit more selective in my approach

to “arb scalping”, for the very simple reason I’m not laying off risk via a hedge

somewhere else, I want to take profit immediately from the trade … and the 2

most important identifying characteristics of a successful “arb scalp”, are

1) MOMO [momentum], and 2) then comes the inevitable FOMO

[Fear Of Missing Out] on the ensuing up move … with that kind of “wind at

your back” it takes little to nothing in terms of any up move on the primary

exchange platform [e.g., Phemex or Coinexx for ETH & XRP], to see a pop higher

on the IQCENT platform where we buy at a discount to spot … and when the

specs at IQCENT spot the move up, here comes the bidding, and in that pop

up I give it gladly back to ‘em … rinse / repeat / what’s not to like here?

I don’t want my readers to be confused about the TEMA & EMA lines … in the

classic sense, their respective crossover or crossunder doesn’t mean it’s giving

a “buy signal” … it means, when TEMA is ABOVE EMA, buy appropriate discounts

to spot, and with the MOMO & FOMO winds at your back, it won’t take long for

that discount to disappear and the market at IQCENT pops higher … there’s your

scalp! … sometimes you get discounts, other times you won’t, and that’s the way

the cookie crumbles sometimes, but it doesn’t mean to simply get blanket long

… and when TEMA is BELOW EMA, you leave the “arb scalp” trade alone,

cuz 1) probabilities drop significantly of a market pop at IQCENT … sure, you

can still get them, but it’s simply luck … and 2) the discount can stay a discount

while the price drops, then where are you? … it does you no good to buy a

discount and then watch ETHUSDT go down $15 in 10 minutes and still keep the

discount or maybe it comes in a little … so what? … the price decline has put

you into a hole! 

As a logistical side note … the Sunday blog 20 Day Range MA & MEDIAN values

I post every week, the New York session ranges and medians are from

7AM EST - 7 PM EST, as this aligns with GMT of 12:00 - 24:00 [0:00] in crypto

pairs … the other markets on the table are from 5 AM EST - 5 PM EST… Phemex

charting uses GMT as a default time, so I want my readers to be aware that the

end of the day comes when it’s 5 PM in Los Angeles on the west coast … unlike

other markets on the MT4, that go “sleepytime” when mid to late New York

afternoon hits, crypto doesn’t play by those rules! … keep this in mind when

evaluating the averages and medians for crypto pairs.

Then there’s the WAR that’s brewing between the FED on one side, and the

Ruskies & ChiComs on the other over gold, and it has literally RUINED the gold

market for “trading” … and the one-way action in gold,which is PATHETIC, is a

direct result of what’s happening … the ChiComs buy it, the FED then sells it

… straight up followed by straight down, rinse / repeat … there isn’t any

“trading”, no corrective activity, and the simple fact of the matter is, so many

traders have abandoned gold as a trading vehicle cuz there are much better day

trading and scalping activity available in other markets, like crypto … take

today’s FUBAR action in gold on the m1, and match it up with ETHUSDT

[Ethereum] … gold, a rigged market if there ever was one only goes straight up

or straight down … now look at Ethereum … what a difference being a

“FREE MARKET” is to traders … quite frankly, Fuck the FED and double for the

ChiComs … it’s there for all to see … and quite frankly the ChiComs are calling

the FEDS bluff, and buying every ounce in sight and don’t care about price

… oh that’s right, they have a CNTRL-P machine too, don’t they? … and they’re

looking to bankrupt the FED and destroy the gold cartel of the

FED / LBMA / COMEX, and force them to default on deliveries and EFPs

… December delivery for futures should be very interesting when we get

there soon!

The bottom line is, that gold is about as shit of a market for a trader as you can

get … I sure as Hell don’t see any “trading”, like you see in other markets

… where the fuck is it? … well, it’s gone cuz the specs are gone! … maybe

trading come back some day, but right now IT STINKS! … and for that reason

come tomorrow, I’m back in crude oil, although I’ll be in WTI and leave Brent

alone for now … given what’s available for us to trade in the PAMM, and the fact

that the TEMA & EMA algorithm gives a much better picture of MOMO & FOMO

than before, oil is the only thing left for us … granted, it’s a pig [like all of ‘em]

that on some days stinks to high heaven, but it also trades and has decent NY

session ranges … so, onto / back to / back to the future / let’s trade oil! 

No trades for the PAMM today … gold is literally lost as a trading vehicle … onto

tomorrow in WTI oil … the first 5+ hours of the day, and ETHUSDT had about as

small a range as you can get, coming in around $20 … then BTC took off, and

so did ETH … amazing what happens everyday when about 10 AM EST comes

around, cuz that’s the time traders on the west coast check in for some good old

fashioned MOMO & FOMO … and today didn’t disappoint!! … I need a forklift to

haul all of the ETHUSDT trades for “The Syndicate” … we’re UP APPROXIMATELY

1.1% on medium volumes … “buy the discount when appropriate, SELL THE RIP!

… CANT DO THIS in gold cuz it won’t trade … sometimes we get it in crude oil,

but there the TEMA & EMA act more like buys on crossovers, cuz there’s only one

place where we can do “arb scalping” … onto tomorrow!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas