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Friday, August 30, 2019


“So says the market each & every time it moves!”

Today, I want to spend some time with the DOW30 CFD … we’ve come a long way
baby, in a very short time … it took a while, but finally the U.S. stock indices
markets are priced fairly by the offshore brokerage houses, to the point that
smaller accounts, and more importantly for me, the managed money accounts in
PAMM’s and/or MAM’s can trade them effectively … bid/offer spreads are mostly
reasonable around the world [sure, there are exceptions where you get ripped off],
round turn commissions, if any, are very tiny and immaterial to your success, and
the markets move … and oh boy, can they move.

Nothing gives you a better idea of how threatened the mighty CME thinks these
CFD’s via offshore brokerage houses are to their monopoly stranglehold on
indices futures, than their rollout of 🙶micro futures🙷, which are nothing more than
mini’s of the e-minis … they don’t like the fact that a major business component of
world trading goes to world banks that provide tight bid/offer quotes to the
offshore community … so yea, small account traders can now utilize U.S. futures
markets in the U.S. stock indices … but who cares? … IMHO, you’d have to be
nuts to trade these, simply for two very obvious reasons … 1] margins are much
higher than offshore [about 4X - 8X more, depending on the index], and 2] why
generate a 1099 for tax purposes if you don’t have to? … offshore brokerage
houses report NADA to any tax authority, leaving it up to traders in their specific
jurisdictions … that’s not my opinion, that’s a fact.

At present, the best of the 3 [between DOW30, SP500, & NDX100] in terms of
1] 🙶net cost🙷 to trade, AND 2] index point movement is the DOW30 … there are
other advantages as well, but these are the top two … since TURNKEY switched
liquidity providers, and went to their now 🙶Global Live🙷 network, I’ve had ZERO
problems with 1] slippage [minimal and to be expected], and 2] time latency
issues on fills … in other words, they’re much better than they used to be … not
the fastest fills on the planet, but in an acceptable range so that I know the
scumbag LP bank is NOT 🙶sandbagging🙷 my order in a que to screw me.

The major U.S. indices present a dynamic that other world indices don’t … and
that is they are 🙶80/10/10🙷 markets … they go up 80% of the time, they go
sideways 10% of the time, and they go down 10% of the time … while this
presents overwhelming opportunity, the caveat here is that the 10% down time
can wipe out the other 90% earned over time, if you’re careless … sidestep the
mini panics and crashes, and you’ll get rich plain and simple.

Don’t believe me? … directly below, in chronological order, the DOW30 CFD
since February 2016, when the FED began actively intervening in financial

click on any chart to enlarge

Taken all together, there are approximately 47 🙶trouble🙷 days for scalping from
the long side, out of approximately 840 trading days … that’s about 6% … if I
went back to 2008, and then 2003, it would be closer to 10% … this is where the
data supports the 🙶80/10/10🙷 premise … today, with more active
🙶Plunge Protection Team🙷 [PPT] activity along with corporate buybacks than
ever before, the back end 🙶10%🙷 has come down about 40% from 10 to 6 … this
is why it’s so difficult to make money trading the stock indices from the short
side, cuz everything about your trade has to be absolutely perfect every time, or
else you get stampeded … got news for you … it can’t be done consistently over

I have known traders for decades who think the DOW30 should be at 600, or that
the big crash is coming every other day now … problem is, they go broke waiting
for it and never have the capital to take advantage of it when it arrives … read ZH
every day after the market closes, and in the recap read the same handles
predicting or pulling their hair out cuz stocks didn’t crash today … ever since
stock indices came onto the scene in April 1982, it’s been the same story from the
same people … stocks gotta crash! … my advice to them has always been the
same … 🙶when a crash comes, it comes … until then, make money from the long
side … the FACTS are striking … I don’t care what you think … leave your bias at
the door … you here to make money, or play analyst🙷?

Most offshore brokerage houses list a version of the DOW30 at 1✴ the index per
1 lot CFD … depending on the brokerage house, it can be traded either fractionally
or by whole integer … TURNKEY offers fractional DOW30 trading, meaning you
can lower your risk from ± $1 per index point, to whatever cents per point you
desire from a risk standpoint … obviously, this has major advantages for small

As of this last Sunday update, the DOW30 20 Day Range MA stood at 500+ index
points … the low for the year around 200 index points … with approximately
85% - 90% of the day’s range during NYSE hours [9AM EST - 400 PM EST]
… so, unlike gold and Cable, you can expect most of the day’s action in New
York, during the NYSE day … plenty of movement here for opportunity.

Financial markets today on 3 day weekend watch … meaning, I’d be very
surprised if anything happens up or down, unless there’s news [read Trump
and/or China] … very much looks and feels like a 🙶scumbag bank raping  &
pillaging🙷 orders day in gold, with somewhat better trading conditions in the
DOW30 … front running and slippage the main features of today, right along
with the mystery ticks and spikes you’ve come to expect from almost ZERO
trading activity and massive 🙶scumbaggery🙷.

I will also mention that utilizing relatively low leverage is key to making solid
money in the DOW30 … you over leverage yourself in this puppy, and get on the
wrong side of a Trump tweet and/or China news headline, especially if your short,
and you will discover a new definition of pain. Although I won’t go as far as
saying don’t ever trade it from the short side, cuz there are moments, why would
you want to when over 90% of the time it wants to go up?

Going forward, now that the final algorithms are in place, I’ll be splitting time
between gold and the DOW30 … the DOW30 has more consistently better ranges,
better bid/offer spread, and overall better trading conditions than gold, but it also
has less 🙶scumbaggery🙷 … that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have any, but what it
does mean is that by being overwhelmingly long most of the time we trade, we
have the manipulators working for us … so, you girls on the 🙶Plunge Protection
Team🙷 [PPT], GO FOR IT! 

Here in the PM of New York, now that Europe has closed, things have quieted
rather quickly … unless they decide to run stops, the day is over … not many
traders hanging around now … they’ve started the weekend early and will be back
on Tuesday. Gold for its part today, pretty quiet and uneventful, with New York
seeing about a $5 range for almost 6 hours of trading, with trips close to the high
and other trips close to the low … that’s called the 🙶Flying Wedge Of Death🙷
[FWD], and it’s no fun getting caught up in it, cuz most traders end up buying
the rallies and/or selling the breaks looking for an extension that never comes.

With gold VIX as low as it’s been today, no algorithm buy signals … some very
good algorithm buy signals in the DOW30 today, and we’ll pick this market up
come Tuesday’s trade action … blog update on Sunday … until then mi amigos
… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great Holiday weekend everybody!


Thursday, August 29, 2019


“Buy MOAR stocks … China says talks are ongoing!”

No matter the data, the 🙶idiot wagon🙷 stops and lets the masses onboard … no
greater Ponzi scheme than stocks, and you can for sure trust the ChiCom’s
🙶National Team🙷 and 🙶The Plunge Protection Team🙷 [PPT] here in the U.S. to prop
stocks up … how many times are they gonna use this prop of a 🙶China trade deal🙷 
to justify stock gains? … how many thousands of DOW30 points have they juiced
the index up over the last 6 - 9 months? … and they are increasingly using it
almost every day … unreal.

Meanwhile, over in gold land, price there keeps marching ever higher, as IMHO
every last nickel of spec money pours in, all the while banks keep selling it to them
… we’re in the 15th week of this stampede, and while I have no clue where the top
is, right now FOMO [Fear Of Missing Out] is taking over spec psychology … and
somebody is gonna get hurt real bad in this, and history says it ain’t gonna be the

Outside of August 13th, there hasn’t been any kind of 🙶flush the toilet🙷 syndrome,
much needed to weed out spec longs from the futures markets, and as I’ve said, if
this shit doesn’t begin to work off some of this froth we’re seeing now, the end is
gonna be brutal and ugly for specs … trust me, the FED and the scumbag banks
will think of something, and quicker than you can say 🙶whoops🙷!, price goes
plummeting lower on some news item that changes the psychology … seen it
before, and will see it again.

I said yesterday that trading action was likely to be slow today unless there was
some Trump and/or China news … China apparently, needs some stock market
help, so they put out more BS [which is what they’re really good at] to extend the
dragging out process and make it look like the two sides are talking … you buy
this line of horseshit, and I got some prime beachfront property in Kansas to
show you … in any event, the HFT algos picked up on this, and bingo, bango,
BOOM! The DOW30 is up another 300 points … gold? … the believers [those who
think there will NEVER be another break in price] keep buying … somebody and
some market is lying, and come next week and into the FED meeting in
September, we’re gonna find out which one it is.

Don’t get me wrong … I’m as bullish on gold as anybody in the medium to long
term … but short term, there are way too many hangers on long futures for my
satisfaction to see further gains … certainly, that doesn’t mean Mr. Jack Squat to
the market, but remember this IS a market … and if the public is long [and they
are in spades], then that leaves the banks short … who ultimately wins this game?
… and right now gold needs to get cleaned out to remain healthy … if not, hide
the children when they come for the longs.

Well, that escalated quickly to the downside, didn’t it? … some days you simply
can’t make this shit up and have anybody sane believe you … here at 1740 server
time [1040 AM EST], gold takes a dump for $6 in under 2 minutes, and when
there’s no legit reason for it, you can assume it’s cuz the market is long … too
long … and when the nervousness starts, it doesn’t take much to get people to
start punching buttons and selling … of course, it cascades on itself, setting off
other sell stops, and let the downside fun begin … 🙶welcome to the stop hunt
frenzy🙷! At some point, though, when the FED is convinced gold has topped out
at least short term, expect the mysterious 100,000+ gold futures contracts to be
sold at the market, probably around 830 AM EST, give or take, and price plummets
before you can blink your eyes … it’s happened before, and it will surely happen
again … it’s their M.O. [modus operandi for you Obama voters tuning in late] and
message to the market.

Gold today having a tough time extending gains … and every trip to the low sees
more buying on the 🙶one off🙷 downward M1 spikes from hell … this is to be
somewhat expected, although it’s more than likely a trap up at these price levels
… I want to see multiple M1’s going down, with a hellish spike at the end, not
simply a one off that goes nowhere. So far, this is a pure grind lower, but under
1530 there is real danger … and while support looks to be at 1525, that can
evaporate quickly if stocks continue to advance, and some gold longs decide to
puke … that job will be made quicker with anything under 1528 … and if 1525
gives way, look the hell out on the downside if there’s any more positive news
that comes 🙶unexpectedly🙷 flowing out of the usual suspects … trouble is

Well, that escalated quickly to the downside [for the second time today], didn’t it?
… from a technical perspective, gold in a little short term trouble here, especially
with the Asia high up at 1550 today … double top anyone? … the low as I write
was 1525.14 on a complete mystery tick … wouldn’t surprise me either way if today
or [more likely] tomorrow [tonight] sees 1525 give way, and then let’s see what kind
of sell stops are under that support level, and if selling can be maintained.

After 1 PM EST in NY, and oh boy, big stop levels beneath gold in play … don’t
want to touch this now with a ten foot pole … risk levels here if you’re bottom
picking gold have gone exponential … hopefully they can wait for tomorrow’s
action, but hey, who knows cuz this is gold … when the banks smell blood they
go for it, and it doesn’t matter much to them what time it is.

I was going to mention yesterday [but forgot] that our trading courses in our 3
markets will include algorithms for those people who like to position trade during
the week … not so much day trading [or scalping], but short term positioning
… so, there’s plenty here for everybody to digest and make money.

There isn’t any real bounce to gold, here in the PM of New York … pretty much
drifting near the lows of the day by a buck or two … in any event, with no decent
algo buy signals today so far, there isn’t any compelling reason to buy gold with
stocks as strong as they are and supporting further technical damage on the
charts … tomorrow I’ll be highlighting the DOW30, as we head into the Labor Day
weekend … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!