FANTASY NUMBERS FROM THE WHIZ KIDS

“Me on my roof … I have captured & detected government bullshit!!”

Well now, most important inflation numbers EVAHHHHHH!, until of course the

next one, and while the “Uniparty” destroys the Banana Republic with profligate

spending on the dumbest shit possible for the “Free Shit Army”, it’s important to

know if you’re one of the “math whiz kids” calculating inflation horseshit, that

the fate of the country depends on you lying … and then when the numbers

either meet or exceed lower the expectations of Wall Street analysts, the Ponzi

con game can continue unabated for another month.

But what if the “whiz kids” didn’t get the White House email for mandatory

lower inflation numbers, and inflation truth takes hold? … then Skippy, markets

have a very big problem!

Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … well, for a few minutes anyway … and

after the immediate mandatory rollercoaster in USDJPY, that screed both longs

and shorts, scumbag banks decided to take it slightly higher … then the fun

began, cuz after that second leg up to the 145.50 area, the bullshit chop that

ensued for about 20 minutes allowed me to multiple “arb scalps” in quick order,

with PREMIUMS of about 12-15 PIPS, which almost immediately came back to

“basis” ZERO or a slight discount … “OK, fine so far, let’s keep the party going

shall we?” … err, no let’s not! … and as fast as it started, it ended even faster as

USDJPY died on the vine “el quicko mucho” … and it never came back out of

about a 25 PIP range of bullshit chop for the next 5+ hours … and with that kind

of bullshit going on, which is just pre-positioning for tomorrow’s FED interest

rate horseshit, there’s no way you get any “arb scalps” that mean anything or are

going to go somewhere, simply cuz the market isn’t going to give you the

PREMIUM to buy cuz nobody is panicking any longer … well yes, this is

disappointing, so when they won’t play, time to move over to the area that’s

always “playing”! … crypto … and MATICUSDT is on the move again, with half

the New York session over [7 AM EST - 7 PM EST], it’s already got an

approximate 500+ PIP range and is delivering the bacon so to speak.

Now follow me here, and make sure you understand the importance of what I’m

writing … there’s a “bigly & yuge” difference between USDJPY [maybe EURUSD]

AND THE CRYPTO PAIRS when it comes to “arb scalps”… they act differently,

and the dynamics of the trade are entirely different … I’m going today to

highlight how “arb scalps” are set up in crypto pairs, particularly my favorite

pair MATICUSDT [POLYGON] … let’s first remember how “basis” is determined,

cuz you absolutely CANNOT trade at IQCENT without a primary market for price

on another platform … I like Phemex, but there are others like Binance

… “BASIS” = the BID price of MATICUSDT @ PHEMEX - THE PRICE OF WHERE

YOU CAN BUY IT @ IQCENT … therefore, I want to buy PREMIUM BASIS, and I

NEVER buy DISCOUNT BASIS!  

Now let’s remember how IQCENT & their LP [Thompson Reuters] make their

money when the bid/offer spread is only 1 tick at the 4th decimal place AND

there are no commissions … EASY PEEZEE: “They blatantly screw their client

base on fills, and whatever they steal the LP splits it with management of the

brokerage house, in this case IQCENT, but remember the LP probably has

dozens of houses where they act as LP.” … which immediately begs the

question of why I would recommend a house that does this? … it’s cuz of the

fluctuations of the “basis” from positive to negative, back & forth, all day and

night, and our ability TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THIS … AN ADVANTAGE

WHEN DONE RIGHT, YOU’RE NOT EVER GONNA GET ON THE MT4 OR ON

OPEN ORDER BOOK [OOB] PLATFORMS BY THEMSELVES EVER! 

Since crypto is essentially 100% spec, where arbs in the primary market

[Phemex or Binance] are present to reflect spec order flow while making

guaranteed money making trades with specs, it’s the source of the calculation

for the “basis” … then along comes lesser LP’s like the one at IQCENT, and they

have an entirely different agenda … their computers keep close track of all of the

clients trading a pair like MATICUSDT, AND THEIR COMPUTER SYSTEMS KNOW

TO THE NANOSECOND WHEN IT’S OVERBOUGHT OR OVERSOLD … when it

gets overbought, that means future sell pressure cuz they all got to sell and

liquidate at some point … on the way down, specs often double / triple /

quadruple up losing positions, SO YOU ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO SEE

PREMIUM BASIS … why? … cuz the LP knows there’s sell pressure cuz your

long, it ain’t gonna give you an out unless you “SELL IT IN THE HOLE!” … in

other words, you sold MATICUSDT @ 0.8614 cuz that was the bid, while at

Phemex the bid was 0.8630 … when specs puke collectively all at once, the

PREMIUM will balloon out to levels of around 25 - 30 ticks … that’s the usual

norm … but when conditions get truly bat shit crazy [BSC], and MATICUSDT

goes down 200 - 500 ticks in 1 or 2 m1’s, the PREMIUM HAS IN THE PAST

BALLOONED OUT TO 200+ TICKS … I’ve shown the trades I and Miss Gimpy

have made in MATICUSDT, where in 30 seconds or less we’ve made this 200

ticks as the “basis” comes back near ZERO “el quicko mucho”!

On the flip side, when traders get oversold in MATICUSDT, off of any bottom

you’ll see a DISCOUNT GO ORBITAL … it’s not unusual to see anywhere from

-20 on the basis, and if the rally is acute going straight up, to -40+ DISCOUNT

… the reason should be obvious! … the LP isn’t gonna let you out unless you

“PAY THE PIPER BABY!” AND HIT THE OFFER TO LIQUIDATE some 40 ticks

OVER where the offer at Phemex is at … and what if it sits for a minute or two

and goes down slightly? … if history is any guide the DISCOUNT WON’T COME

IN VERY MUCH … and if it takes off again higher, you are truly fucked, where

you’ll end up buying the high some -30 to -40 “basis”!

The entire premise then of the LP is pretty easy to figure out, and unless you

maintain discipline & patience, they will catch you and screw you! … and the

system favors long positions cuz when you buy PREMIUM, all that needs to

happen is for the bid at Phemex to stay steady or go up a few ticks, and that

PREMIUM disappears “el quicko mucho” so fast it will make your eyes water

… literally seconds … THAT’S NOT HOW IT WORKS ON THE SHORT SIDE OF

THINGS! … and that’s why I strongly recommend for crypto pairs, you trade

them from the LONG side and get the proper PREMIUM … I’m not your MOM, so

if you want to venture to the short side, it’s fine with me, but don’t email me with

tears in your eyes when you get short a fat DISCOUNT, and some pair like

MATICUSDT JUST KEEPS GOING STRAIGHT UP, AND ALONG THE WAY TO THE

TOP IT KEEPS THAT -20 TO -30 DISCOUNT, and in the process it blows the shit

out of your account … I don’t wanna hear about it, cuz I warned traders

NOT TO DO IT!

And as I have repeatedly said, you don’t buy PREMIUM on the way down in price,

cuz neither I nor you have any idea where it can land … it will eventually bottom,

and that’s where the nice, juicy, fat PREMIUMS WILL SHOW UP FOR

PROFITABLE LONG TRADES … for a pair like MATICUSDT, I’m looking for

PREMIUM in the vicinity of 20+ ticks once it bottoms … and if it doesn’t happen,

OK fine, I just wait cuz it will happen at some point! … and if SHTF on the way

down to hundreds of ticks lost, 20 ticks of PREMIUM ain’t gonna cut it … just

wait and there should be a MASSIVE PREMIUM COMING SHORTLY FROM

SYSTEM STOPS.

A truly disappointing day in USDJPY, where 1) U.S. CPI came in right on

consensus, and 2) once the dust settled from the report the market simply died

on the vine giving not only “arb scalps” the “deep six”, but simple algo signals

the kiss of death as well … no trades in the PAMM, but tomorrow sees PPI early,

then the “Biggy”, the FED at 2 PM EST … I doubt the PPI does anything, but

we’ll see.

For “The Syndicate” today multiple arb scalps” in USDJPY in a short time frame,

and then I moved over to MATICUSDT, where “arb scalps” were plentiful cuz

MATICUSDT IS/WAS MOVING! … WE’RE UP APPROXIMATELY 0.8% on light

volumes, here before FED day … and while MATICUSDT was moving, BTC &

ETH didn’t do Mr. Jack “Diddly” Squat in the U.S. session so far … go figure!

… but it’s crypto, so anything / everything can happen and usually does

… onto tomorrow.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

 

PROPAGANDA ON STEROIDS

 

“And here I am, spreading truth over propaganda every single trading day!!”

The 3-ring shitshow circus of central bank lies & propaganda, followed by math

whiz kids who can’t find a job in the private sector so they show up in

government, comes to an end today [for now] with the biggest propaganda pile

of horseshit known to mankind, in the form of NFP Idiocy … yes, the Dept. of

Unicorns & Fairy Tales has worked so hard this month to come up with more

new lies heaped upon old lies, just to keep the fantasy alive that the U.S.

economic picture has a pulse … where that pulse is, nobody really knows, cuz if

it wasn’t for part time jobs at Applebee’s & Chili’s waiting tables or serving

drinks, what would you think reality would look like?

Right now, if things are so good as Creepy Uncle “Taliban Joe” reminds us, how

come the Banana Republic is running $2 TRILLION DOLLAR DEFICITS? … when

the depression comes, as it surely will, what happens with $5 TRILLION DOLLAR

DEFICITS? … Grandma Yellen’s treasury dept., has already admitted that in

2 years WITH ROSY FORECASTS, INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL DEBT WILL HIT

$2 TRILLION DOLLARS ANNUALLY! … that’s what “they admit to” … imagine

what the real numbers will be if the rosy forecasts are in “error”? … and how the

fuck does that ever get paid off without hyperinflation, somebody in Libtard

Nation enlighten me? … and in the midst of this, the ChiComs are flooding their

system with printed Yuan, and the idiots over at the BOJ are about to lose total

control over the world’s largest pile of stinking debt, with YEN DEBT IN THE

QUADRILLIONS, all at super low interest rates that are now creeping higher! 

And since I’m your “truth detector”, here’s some advice … “GOLD / SILVER /

CRYPTO [BITCOIN] is your financial salvation in coming weeks / months / years,

and you need to get your wealth OUT OF THE BANANA REPUBLIC ASAP, before

they either outright confiscate it, or tax it to death, and leave you financially

ruined cuz you have one more penny than somebody else … that they will do it,

there’s no doubt, it’s only a matter of “WHEN”, NOT “IF”! … there is no way out

of the “death spiral” the Banana Republic is in, only hyperinflation or

confiscating your wealth … and they won’t give you any warning when it

happens … remember, “it’s better to be 10 years too early, than 1 day too late!”

… if you’re late, you’re screwed!

Well now, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … misses all around to the downside

for the data, and it’s clear that rate hikes from the FED Lounge Lizards are

O.V.E.R.! … question is, with fiscal policy of the Banana Republic a first class

train wreck, and Treasury borrowing headed to the stratosphere, can rates go

lower and dollar FX pairs go higher? … we’ll see, but it sure looks like

uncertainty is likely to prevail for the foreseeable future.

Upon “Homer Simpson” reflection and “deep thoughts”, it’s pretty clear I made a

mistake … yes I know, hard to believe and all that, but the data doesn’t lie … quite

frankly, all of the crosses are “not so great” places to either scalp or day trade,

you’re better off simply trading the dollar pairs … it used to be certainly before

the 2008 financial crisis, and then placed in permanent stone on one of Moses’s

tablets after the great EURCHF debacle on January 15, 2015, that central banks

sang their own song on monetary policy … immediately following 1/15/2015 that

changed, and outside of the nutjobs at the BOJ, every other central bank in the

world started singing from the same hymnal … EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM!

… as a result, VIX collapsed, ranges dwindled, and the nature and scope of FX

trading changed forever … one of the biggest changes came about in the non

dollar crosses, where before 1/15/2023 4 out of 5 days saw both numerator and

denominator most likely go in opposite directions … now however, IT’S THE

EXACT OPPOSITE! … 4 out of 5 days sees a pair like GBPUSD be equal to or

exceed the range of any of the Cable crosses … and this leads cross traders

into a very big problem.

And that problem is simply this … what was once before, ain’t any more, and to

make matters worse, unless you recognize the switch scumbag bank LP’s are

gonna feast upon you as if your account was a free buffet! … 1) you got a higher

spread in the cross versus the dollar pair, yet 80% of the time you don’t get any

reward for that extra vig you pay … and 2) on average 4 days of the week sees

pathetic range in the cross, which leads to ever tighter scalps or trades in terms

of PIPS, and then when it explodes and surpasses the dollar pair, traders are

extremely hesitant to chase it cuz they know they’re pissing into the wind that

sees them not at a probability advantage … you end up cutting trades short in

order to make a buck, and then aren’t there when it explodes! … how on earth

does this help anybody?

Today a perfect example of this, where GBPUSD [Cable] has an approximate 200

PIP range [so far], and GBPAUD is sitting there with a 67 PIP range … WTF IS

THIS!? … well, both Cable & Aussie are moving together higher, and whatever

range in the cross comes about cuz the denominator influences the cross more

than the numerator … the other day, it was just the opposite, where AUDUSD

went up and Cable didn’t do Mr. Jack “Diddly” Squat … how many traders got to

capture that full ride on the trade pony? … my guess is “Hoover Dam” few!

On the surface, it would appear that EURUSD has the advantage over Cable, but

in watching both over time, IMHO EURUSD gaps more in price from bid to

another bid, even though the spread is slightly lower by a few tenths of a PIP,

than Cable … don’t get me wrong here, Cable has its moments, but on the whole

I think EURUSD is a somewhat rougher trade, especially when it gets moving

some … but even when it sits, the gap pricing is still there … DIRECTLY BELOW,

3 screenshots of GBPUSD from today in succession, the first from 14:00 server

time to 16:30 server time, the second from the NYSE open [16:30 server time] to

the London Fix [19:00 server time], and the third from 19:00 server time to 21:30

server time … the first chart has RM=1, RM=2, & RM=4 due to the fact that the

NFP comes at 15:30 and there was severe panic gap pricing upon release … the

other 2 charts I’ve left off RM=4 … from normal trading movements, unless there

are economic reports or “blah blah, yada yada” from central bank Apparatchiks,

99.9% of the time you won’t see any movement above RM=2 in any

significant way.

click on ANY chart to enlarge

Looking at these 3 charts, notice that I’ve changed the ZERO LAG STOCHASTIC

OSCILLATOR [ZLSO] overbought and oversold levels [yellow lines] to 100 & 110

on the upside, and 0 & -10 on the downside … this oscillator can go past 100 and

go under 0, and these levels reflect better overbought or oversold conditions

… this will be reflected in the manual as well … and looking at the day, how

much better can the algorithm be at calling the turns? … granted, Cable is putting

in an overextended range based on its 20 Day daily & NY session Range MA, by

a factor close to 100% … so this is kind of an outlier, but it gives a good look at

what happens when SHTF and market sentiment abruptly changes form 5 - 6

weeks of dollar buying and attempting to get Cable under 1.21 - 1.20 and failing,

and then catching everybody and their pet rabbit with short positions and

watching the carnage as that melts away “el quicko mucho” … the vast majority

of days won’t see RM levels get above RM=2 [up or down], and most of the time

RM=1 nails support and resistance to the barn door! … and as you can probably

guess, I’ll be back in Cable come Sunday night for Monday’s trade for the PAMM.

No trades for the PAMM today, I wasted too much time post NFP looking for

decent long trades in EURAUD … and outside of the first move from the

downside at RM=3, and the subsequent small rally, there wasn’t

Mr. Jack “Diddly” Squat for movement in the crosses across the board

[excluding YEN, which I want nothing to do with] … in retrospect, I’ve known

for a good long time that the dollar pairs offered advantages, but I thought

[wrongly] with a much faster algorithm in place we could get as many trades

… NOPE! … I’ll also be adjusting my trading times, and be at the ready just

after the European open … given the uncertainty of the FED now, war

everywhere, and fiscal irresponsibility a given, ranges should stay elevated

from where they are now and maybe expand some … in any event, it doesn’t

really matter cuz the algo uses “zero lag” with both HULL & EMA in the

computer code to give us the fastest change in order flow you can get … and

you’ll notice, that when the “zero lag MA” [ZLMA] period 96 is steel blue

[up slope], and the 9 & 19 ZLMAs are plum & aqua respectively, the market

rallies with few and far between red m1’s … sometimes 1 m1, maybe 2 m1’s

usually small in scope … and at the turn, the algo is very, very fast in warning

you to get out and liquidate, and come back later … flip it around and when

the ZLMA period 96 is pink, it’s mostly red m1’s down, and the exact opposite

occurs … this is not by accident, but rather it reflects scumbag bank LP

activity and how they fade order flow and screw specs … that’s why I say,

“the algorithm as presently constructed, makes the scumbag bank LP WORK

FOR YOU … let the “Hoover Dam” bank take it higher!, you don’t stand a

chance when you’re against them! … let them do the work … it repeats

endlessly, hour after hour, day after day, the same process at work to

separate specs from their money … don’t be one of ‘em!!”

Over at IQCENT, good scalping via EURUSD today, with a very robust 132 PIP

range … who do we have to kill to get this every day!? … “The Syndicate” UP

APPROXIMATELY 0.3% on very light volumes cuz I absolutely hate / detest/

stinkin’ NFP Friday’s with a passion … rarely does anything good come out of

any NFP Friday, but I have to admit this one was pretty good … next week sees

volumes go up, now that this shitshow circus of data & Apparatchiks is over

for now … I’ll have more on Cable via Sunday’s blog update, and I’m aiming for

a next Sunday release of the latest version of the scalping algorithm … it will be

more comprehensive in scope than prior versions with plenty of examples of

how I handle trades under varying circumstances … stay tuned!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas