PANIC ON EVERY SQUIGGLE

 

“You can spot an FX cross trader by his trading persona!”

Rumor mill day two … TRIPLE reversal day so far in EURJPY, WHEN DO WE

START GETTING QUAD reversals and higher? … it’s not a rhetorical question

… granted, ECB stupidity tomorrow, and it appears Vlad has already announced

his intention of letting “some” gas flow, but nobody really knows for sure what

that level will be … make no mistake, he’s still in control … EURJPY  a nightmare

of spikes and reversals on panic from every squiggle on the chart … range isn’t

that great, but inside this range [so far only about 130 PIPS] the spikes from Hell,

both up and down, have been wicked & fast.

A couple of items of important note … 1) I’m changing the crosses m1 parameter

settings on 2 of the HULL MA COLOR indicators … one from period 23 to period

34 on the solid line, and the other from period 40 to period 53 on the dashed line

… this will give us better buy/sell signal modes for execution on the 15s Netdania

chart crossover … when trading conditions get rather “hectic” and approach

“Twilight Zone” conditions [not there yet, but at times today it appeared we might

be headed there], we’re getting the necessary corrective activity in the crosses,

but it’s happening so fast it turns the smaller HULL MA COLOR into sell mode,

when in fact it should remain in buy mode … 2) on the Netdania 15s candlestick

chart, I’m changing the EMA [plum line] from period 40 to period 22, while the

TEMA [yellow line] goes to settings [6, 0.08] from [7, 0.09]. All of these changes

will give us better buy/sell signals under “normal” to “hectic” trading conditions

… and while we may have some days here & there that are slow and choppy for

whatever reason, the “Vix Genie” is out of the bottle, and she ain’t goin’ back in

for a long while. 

I fully expected today to be choppy & volatile, but I wasn’t expecting the

horrendous spikes from Hell on more rumors [mostly, will they or won’t they for

50 bps hike tomorrow from the ECB] … quite frankly, this is all scumbag LP bank

bullshit at its finest at work, jerking the rumor mill so they can front run orders

… and as you can imagine, the scumbag LP banks are “nasty” when it comes to

fills on those stops … a bigger set of thieves you won’t find anywhere.

Only one algorithm buy signal today in EURJPY … TURNKEY PAMM UP

SLIGHTLY … I’m not at all happy about our fills again today from Turnkey’s

scumbag LP’s … this is the second day in a row where combined slippage [entry

& liquidation] almost came to 3 PIPS, more around the 2.5 PIPS level, but still

pretty pathetic if you ask me … and it’s pissing me off … latency is fine, but all

of a sudden this 1 ½ PIP horseshit on every fill isn’t sitting well with me … if I’m

gonna get slippage like this, then I’ll move over to GBPJPY, where I get more

bang for the trade with higher ranges … and speaking of GBPJPY, today’s range

well below its 20 Day Range MA, mostly cuz USDJPY has only got an approximate

47 PIP range for the day, here at Noon EST, which is well under the current value

of approximately 114 PIPS … still, even with a slightly higher spread, the

“Trading Ratio” [TR] for Cable/Yen remains well above 3.0+ most of the day … the

key question here is “variance” in statistical terms … in other words, does it move

erratically enough given its slightly higher spread over EURJPY to justify trading

it … and the answer is yes … just be advised, GBPJPY is in the mix for PAMM

trading as we move forward.

Now into the New York afternoon, and the day is over … tomorrow of course is the

ECB clusterfark at 08:15 AM EST, with the presser 30 minutes later … let the clown

games begin! … in addition, you can’t forget Vlad either … we’ll see about the

Natty Gas situation, but nothing is final until Vlad says its final … I believe

nothing coming out of “Propaganda Europe”, either from some dumb ass bank or

the MSM … political hacks top to bottom … onto tomorrow.

 … outta here … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎, and

my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

FX GAME PLAN: KILL LONGS, KILL SHORTS, RINSE & REPEAT

 

“Yup, scumbag bank computers are much faster & better at it than imaginable!”

All you can do is laugh, otherwise you’d be crying … iteration number, pick a large

one will ya? … Fourth day in a row of straight up, straight down, or vice versa and

absolutely nothing in between … and when I say “nothing”, unless you somehow

think a 10 PIP correction in any up/down move over 1 - 4 minutes is defined as a

“correction” that has statistical significance in a volatile cross like Cable/Yen, I

mean there aren’t any entry points for trades … goes straight up, there’s no break

to buy, and when it goes down, there’s no rally to sell … everything turns on a

dime.

Topping today’s clusterfark of trading, was first the BOE and the hint that they’re

considering “NIRP”, or negative interest rates … “sure, why not, cuz it’s worked so

well in Japan over 30 years, right?” … Cable/Yen not liking the sound of that, and

it’s “Thelma & Louise” in the blink of your eyes … we hit the bottom and now it

rallies, and the predictable second clusterfark arrives with an E.U. Apparatchik

telling the financial MSM, that he’s “convinced” a BREXIT deal is in the cards in

“his opinion” … well, isn”t that special? … and another mistress fund gets funded

in seconds, as Cable goes orbital, about 80 PIPS in seconds … Bingo! Bango!

Boom!, there ya go the 4th day in a row of complete absurdity, and we sit almost

exactly where we opened Sunday night to start the week … what a joke.

No trades today in the TURNKEY  PAMM / MAM.

No trades cuz no signals … how do you expect me to get buy/sell signals when all

it did was go straight up or straight down? … the algorithm was in both sell mode

& buy mode today … wouldn’t give me a place to get short going down, and

wouldn’t give me a place to buy going up … it is what it is, nothing I can do about it,

but I will say I’ve never seen anything like this, where everything is literally straight

up/down for days in a row, and we haven’t even moved anywhere! … and now that

Europe is closed [somewhere between 1800 - 1900 server time], and both sides of

the order book … AGAIN! … has been cleaned out by “scumbaggery” by the usual

suspects, pretty much all of FX, including GBPJPY, will go “sleepytime” in 3 … 2 …

1 … and when it does you’re toast, cuz it won’t move 5 PIPS one direction or the

other, and the slippage is sure to go higher cuz we’re talkin’ about scumbag LP

New York banks … and so the trading day, unless you’re nuts and want some kind

of trading “death wish”, is over. 

Another day in the wonderful world of “The FX Twilight Zone”, where for the last 2

months at least, it’s only trading action that has the lowest probability events

associated with them that are seen during the trading day … and although the

daily ranges haven’t been hugely abnormal, and IVIX INDEX levels are well

behaved with good volatility, it’s the straight up/down trading action with impunity

that is a head scratcher … cuz in this specific environment, you have to buy rallies

and/or sell breaks, and if you do that, you’re seriously on the way to account

destruction … not “if” but “when” … and this is something I NEVER do. Well, it

all is what it is, and I was at the ready today on both sides of the market

… “Sorry!, NO NOT Sorry"!, says the market, almost as if it had a personality

begging you to join and buy the rally or sell the break … and for the 4th day in a

row [really 5 if you count last Friday as well] account destruction is on the agenda

if you get an opinion and get pig headed … “oh, it has to go down cuz BREXIT

news is bad! … really? … Oh, it has to go up cuz … well cuz! … really? … as I’ve

said before, it’s all about order flow and spec positioning, with the scumbag

banks directing the flow … and lately, when they flip it around, they take no

prisoners"! … this too shall pass.

Normally, the trading signal algorithm will throw off many, many buy/sell signals,

ESPECIALLY in a volatile & active non dollar cross like GBPJPY … but it can’t

cover 100% of the trading action, only about 99.7% of projected price flow … we’ve

just had 5 days in a row of complete 3 days out of 1,000 probability hand us

NADA!! … BUT WE GET 5 IN A ROW? … YUP … “OK Queen of Hearts, you got my

attention down here in “rabbit hole” land, what next FOR CRYIN’ OUT LOUD?

… Quite frankly, this directly below comes to mind … “How many of you would

play, with 36 to 1 odds of hitting the number “19”, this many times in a row? … yet,

here it is”! 

“Truly Twilight Zone time!”

"C'mon, don't be shy, raise your hand if you played "19" 7 times in a row"?

The odds here are only 78.3 BILLION TO 1 … sure, why not?

Hopefully, with the FED & BOE idiocy out of the way, maybe tomorrow can see

some kind of “normalcy”? … “I can dream can’t I?” … would be nice … Welp!,

nothing to do but tighten up the “big girl panties”, keep my eyes open, and head

into Friday.

Outta here … until tomorrow … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

THE SOPRANOS HOLD A MEETING

 

“Message to the scumbag LP banks!”

Welcome to “markets held hostage” day, for yet again another utterly worthless,

useless, bullshit ridden, doublespeak ECB meeting that would make George Orwell

role in his grave … but, and this is very important, it will FUBAR FX enough so that

the scumbag LP banks can do what they always do, which of course is to screw

orders blind in the minutes immediately following any or all of the bullshit given to

the sycophants in the financial MSM … nothing special here really, cuz they’re just

like the other central bank Mafia crews who hold meetings, most notably the FED,

but the penchant for “fuck ups” in the presser is always the key driver for markets.

Nothing to do but chop, until the “Oracles of Wizardry” with the CNTRL-P machine

give us their twisted logic as to why printing money is the key to prosperity … all

gobbled up by the talking heads as if it makes perfect sense, when in fact

everybody knows it lays the foundation for currency ruin … “but hey, that’s later

down the road! … and who cares anyway? … party on dude”!

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking down for the POLS & Apparatchiks in Britain & the

E.U., to hurry up and get their ducks lined up via the rumor mill on BREXIT

“scumbaggery”, as the light at the end of this despicable tunnel of greed &

corruption comes to a close in mere weeks … or so they say now … never

underestimate the will of government to change the rules midstream to keep the

envelopes coming on time … cuz as Silvio so aptly puts it into its proper context,

“you frickin’ banks are only in our good graces as long as the last envelope arrives

on time, otherwise you sleep with the fishes” … color me not shocked at all, if this

BREXIT shitshow runs well into 2021 and beyond, cuz nobody wants to be the one

delivering the last envelope!

So, what did the Soprano’s decide today at the ECB interest rate meeting

decision? … anything important? … only that they don’t really care where the Euro

goes on the upside and meanwhile Cable sucks! … and there you have it right from

the horse”s mouth!

Oh boy, the wheels coming off the FX wagon today quickly … elevated IVIX INDEX

levels all over the place, and Cable gets mauled lower … another day of straight

down, straight up, then straight down into the European close, with nary a few PIPS

to the upside lasting more than a minute or two … a complete bloodbath in Cable

… however, what we learned today is good news going forward in EURGBP, cuz the

“green light” went on in spades from the ECB to take that pair much, much higher

in the weeks / months ahead into 2021 … and unless BoJo backs down, it very

much looks & feels like a very hard BREXIT is in the cards … and that means opportunity!

NO trades today in the TURNKEY PAMM / MAM.

Nothing I can do when everything is either straight down or straight up in panic

mode the entire trading day after the ECB presser … “sure, my eyes widened on

the Euro revelation, and was eagerly looking to get long EURGBP the entire day”

… OK, take a gander at this eye watering M15 candlestick in EURGBP, and tell me

where the break is to buy?

click on chart to enlarge

From the ECB presser until past the European close, nothing but straight up … only

the crooks on Wall Street able to break it a little once the lights were turned off

… welcome to “The FX Twilight Zone”, where only the strangest shit imaginable

happens with regularity … seriously, this is unreal … but hey, it is what it is, so I

deal with it and move onto tomorrow.

Meanwhile, over in crude oil land, “Dullsville”, as that market didn’t even have a $1

range today … the oil inventories report failing to move anything … I can predict

right now, tomorrow is gonna be an interesting trading day … my focus is on

EURGBP, and given what we found out today, it should be good … we’ll see.

… until tomorrow … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas