“I WANT to see; I THINK I see … reality is a little different!”
What do you see when you look at an M1 EURUSD candlestick chart? “And
while I will get a thousand different answers from people across the trading
spectrum, there won’t be one out of ten thousand who can accurately predict
what my answer will be”. To end the suspense, here’s my answer; “What am I
looking at? I’m looking at a chart 10 million other eyes across the world are
looking at, at the exact same time as me, and they all have one goal … figure
out where price is going next. So, how’s that workin’ out for the 90%+ of
people who supply the market with money”?
Cuz what the vast, vast majority of people see when they look at a chart, is
exactly what they want to see, not what they need to see. “And like the guy in
the pic above, you’re already thinkin’ it before you even see it. You’re thinkin’
of profits, and how everything is lining up for a nice move, cuz all of your
textbook indicators, which by the way 5 million other people use as well, are
saying go … until price violently jerks the other way some minutes later and
stops you out, right where all the other retail stops are as well … and now that
you’re out, the market comes roaring back and makes a new high/low, and you
feel like a chump … congrats! … you’ve been played like a violin”.
When I was on the trading floor all those years, the majority of traders in the
pits were dumber than a bag of carrots … yet, they consistently made money
over the guys who would wander in from the business world, scientific
community, or the legal and medical professions, who got “whacked”
consistently and then were gone … how is this possible? “It’s possible cuz
trader A, who barely graduated High School, and couldn’t tell livestock from
preferred stock, and can barely utter 3 words in a string without an “F bomb”
of some kind, has discipline & patience, knows the “setups”, and has a fear of
having to be in the “Pudding Business” if he screws up. Trader B is a biz
professional, with an MBA, and thinks he can 1) outsmart the market, and
2) can “think” his way out of trouble at crunch time” … usually within 1 -2
months, they’re gone.
Today, all anybody has is the electronic trading platform, and whether you
use MT4 or some other platform, we all see the same stuff. And while I could
probably write an entire 500 page book on the subject, let me condense most
traders losing money problems into a single thought … one way or another,
stripping away the bullshit, you get to the core of the onion, and here it is;
“you absolutely cannot buy a rally, or sell a break in price and expect to
consistently make money for a living”. And quite frankly, I don’t care whether
you use my algorithms or not or whatever else you use for your criteria
… when in fact do you get long and when do you get short? … “go ahead, take
a look”. And after you get into a position, do you use the spikes in your profit
direction to liquidate, or do you get greedy and want more? “Raise your hand
if I’m hittin’ a nerve here? … hmm, that’s a lotta hands in the air”!
Cuz the dirty little secret about being a professional trader, is that you’re
never satisfied with your day … there’s always things I coulda done better,
but didn’t … “Hint: go put on your big girl panties and deal with it, cuz it
comes with the territory 24/5/365 … and those that dwell on profit, instead of
controlling risk, don’t really understand the fire breathing dragon they do battle
with every day … this biz is simple, it ain’t easy; and the reason it ain’t easy is
cuz of all the failure you have to internally deal with day after day, all the while
making money … it’s why I have said before, you have to learn to successfully
fail … but, this isn’t a genetic trait, it’s very much learned, and the biggest part
of that “learning” is to not care about price in the market you trade, and don’t
buy spike rallies or sell spike breaks and “chase” price like a dog chases a car
… instead, buy breaks in bull runs and sell rallies in bear markets, and use the
spikes in your profit direction to liquidate … it’s where you get your best fills
from the scumbag LP’s, and it’s how you make money”!
Turning to today’s market … well, the Italians voted for their 90th
government since the start of the twentieth century on Sunday… yea, amazing
… and almost like the other 89 times, nothing gets resolved … all they voted
for was confusion & chaos … a little volatility in EURUSD as a result, but the
800 lb. gorilla in the room this week is the ECB interest rate policy decision on
Thursday … like last time, Super Mario will figure out what to do and say at
his presser Thursday morning, about 5 minutes from crunch time.
A very weird trading day … it seemed like trading action was in slow motion
… a very herky-jerky flow to the bid/offer for most of the day. Of course, as
I’ve written previously, what was once “tail risk” is now normal trading
activity, and what once was normal trading activity is now “tail risk”, so it
shouldn’t be any surprise to see our friend the “Flying Wedge of Death”
[FWD] for almost the entire European session … only the SP500 melt up at
the European close to click off buy stops in EURUSD saved the session from
being without zero drama.
Three trades today … PAMM up a few dollars under 0.1%.
All three long trades had decent “setups”, and none presented any sort of a
problem against the position … the problem came once it moved into profits
… it simply refused to move any further … “and I can tell you right now, just
like in the trading pit, when it’s supposed to be moving in your profit direction
after entry and it isn’t, you don’t “think” about liquidating, you liquidate
… thinking will turn you into “roadkill” … I’ve already done the thinking away
from the market, and there isn’t room for further thoughts about “what if” … it
has to be instinctive”!
Tomorrow and Wednesday are apt to be like today, most likely with a smaller
daily range, but we’ll see … as we work our way towards Thursday mornings
ECB clusterfark, conditions should get a bit more choppy and chaotic. In any
event, I’ll deal with it and move forward … another day another dollar
… we’ll see what tomorrow brings … I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi
amigos … Onward & Upward!!
PAMM spreadsheet directly below. [Note: Consolidated PAMM results for
2018 are now in the “Download Links” section over in the right-hand column
for January & February.]
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!
