SUNDAY UPDATE: CHAOS REDEFINED

 

“Precious metals and crypto!!”

Directly below, this week’s stat facts for our PAMM markets.

click on table to enlarge

VIX ebbs and flows like the ocean’s tides, but what disturbs me the most

heading into this week is that the percentage of trading action as defined by

the “New York session median / the daily range for the day”, has fallen below

50% for Ethereum [ETHUSD] and Bitcoin [BTCUSD] … and what that portends

for both, IMHO, are alternating trading days of pure shit with days of bat shit

crazy [BSC] action … one day a large blow out range and the next it acts like

it’s closed … this is the kind of bullshit that infects FX pairs, purposely designed

to screw specs by the central banks by creating conditions where VIX is highly

inconsistent … and that means banks win and specs lose.

On the other hand, both gold and silver are seeing increased VIX, where NY

headlines about 75% of the daily action in less than 8 hours … and while things

can change, they don’t appear imminent and I don’t foresee gold going

“sleepytime” with a significant drop in range … maybe some, but not enough

to make a difference. … the FED is close to puking gold shorts HARD, and with

solid foreign central bank demand for “bigly & yuge” size, I don’t know how

they see getting out of this FUBAR clusterfark without losing hundreds of

billions of dollars … and that most likely will see gold benefit along with silver.

I’ll move back over to ETH when it makes sense to do so, but 48% versus 75%

in gold is a wide differential and makes for better trade conditions … starting

the week, I’ll be back in gold … onto the week!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😍😍,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

LIFE WITH BRANDON … “BITCH ASSES” & INCOMPETENCE

 

“The Banana Republic is in the best of hands isn’t it!!?”

Oh no hot inflation now too?!! … must be Trump’s fault … or Putin & Tucker

Carlson … and now watch Longs puke “Spoos” … probably won’t last long,

but who knows? … pet rabbits get nervous being long the top don’tchaknow?

… gosh, who coulda ever seen this coming? … once the money laundering

NYSE opens, let’s see how BTC reacts … quick shot lower off the CPI

not-so-good-news, but it’s early yet.

Quite frankly, the only ad the GOP needs to run this election season is a 30

second spot with the following chart … no commentary needed for those

with a functioning brain [sorry, contest not open to residents of Illinois,

New York, or Kalifornia.]

click on any chart to enlarge

But, since it’s the GOP, and they’re known for fucking up the obvious, don’t

hold your breath … facts the Uniparty doesn’t want you to see or know.

Finally, can you spot the moment on the following chart where “Taliban Joe”

took office and started to FUBAR the middle class? [Hint for Libtards: it’s where

“REAL” wages went from UP [green] under Trump to RED [down] with senile Joe

at the helm … facts are a B.I. Itch aren’t they Libtards?

“WHAT, ME WORRY?”

And once the dust settles from the C-4 explosion, there ain’t trading shit

anywhere … NYSE range about $500 -$600 (so far) as we move to the NY

afternoon in a yo-yo “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] scenario of pure horseshit

… and today points out in spades what “markets” [cough, bullshit, cough] have

become … nothing but lottery tickets! … BTC feeling the heat cuz they ran it up

so fast recently, and besides, higher rates ain’t good for anything … ask gold

… one hint though to keep in mind once the dust settles … what do the up M1’s

look like relative to the down m1’s … and today the down m1’s are steeper and

much faster to the punch, telling you once short covering is done it’s elevator

down “el quicko mucho”! … and that’s after the sigma miss on CPI into the

NYSE open … when that scenario reverses, BTC will go up!

Only one trade for the PAMM today … we’re UP SLIGHTLY … action ugly, sloppy

but the fills were OK and the spread was decent around $25 … action worse in

the “Spoos”, where after the NYSE open, 4 hours later it’s only got a 25 index

point range with about an hour and half to the close … sure, shit can happen at

any moment, but still how pathetic is that? … onto tomorrow.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: GRASS IS ALWAYS GREENER OVER THE FENCE

 

“Who knew cows are traders!!”

You can slice it, dice it, analyze the data 6 ways from Sunday, but no matter what

you do the inescapable conclusion you’re going to end up with will point to 2

trading “truths” … 1) markets need volatility [VIX], not close to close on the

daily candlestick, but in the session you’re trading … unless you’re willing to be

a “meth head”, nobody can trade the 120 hours in a week … you have to pick

your session, which implies the need for a somewhat steady & stable worldwide

market VIX you can rely on … this doesn’t exist currently in ANY MARKET, and

that includes crypto [BTC & ETH] … this fact alone is a huge advantage scumbag

banks have over specs, cuz the banks simply pass their “book” from time zone

to time zone and never miss a beat … you on the other hand can’t do this … and

if you try [and I have and failed miserably], you’ll end up playing “Whack-A-Mole”

and every market you ignore will move and everyone you watch intently dies on

the vine!

We are in the greatest central banker market manipulation era the world has ever

seen … this is “truth” #2) … ever since the EURCHF debacle on January 15, 2015,

markets have entered a new paradigm of central bank control … ALL OF ‘EM

from crude oil & FX to “Stock Bellies”, and everything in between … with only an

occasional blip of VIX to allow the release of some built up pressure, a simple

look at daily charts before 2015 and daily charts AFTER 2015, and it’s night and

day difference in all of the so called traditional financial “markets” [cough,

bullshit, cough] … they’ve morphed from volatile markets into lottery tickets.

The last few weeks notwithstanding cuz they’ve sucked, historically crypto

[BTC & ETH] and one or any of the “Stock Bellies” markets [DOW30, NDX100,

SP500 (“SPOOS”) HAVE TO A DEGREE MAINTAINED SOME LEVEL OF

HALF-WAY DECENT VIX … 6 weeks into 2024, and it’s a pretty piss poor table

of VIX values, with a day last week not seen in terms of low VIX in the “Spoos”

in over 20 years! … and in crypto, the new kid on the BTC playground, which are

the ETFs [13 of ‘em], have the potential to upend the “Whales” as market movers,

being replaced by institutional Morons … to soon to tell who wins this high

stakes poker game, but my guess is the corporate “Jimbos” in big company

treasury departments have more ammo, and will panic first over & above any

“Whale” sitting out there … and looking at the first 6 weeks of 2024, so far we

have gotten a big break from 49K down to 39K, followed by an almost straight up

move back to 48K on Friday … welcome to BTC ETFs!, how do you like the

“grass” so far? 

I’ve pretty much given up on any hope that FX, gold, and oil can hold and

maintain any consistent level of VIX … what an absolute FUBAR bunch of joke

markets … everything is either a C4 explosion, or it’s dead in the water … take

away microsecond moves on Apparatchik lips moving and spewing lies, or any

of the made up from fiction economic reports, and ranges diminish rather quickly

from bad to worse to worser-er-er … you’re never gonna be able to catch any of

those moves cuz 1) the bid/offer spread blows out, 2) slippage goes orbital, and

3) if you think the scumbag bank or HFT LP is gonna cut you some slack and

hand out a decent fill, then I got farmland in North Korea to sell you! … CHEAP!

… right next to Uncle Kim’s house with a great view!

So my “command decision” is to stay put in the trading pasture of green grass

that makes up 1) BTC [Bitcoin], 2) Ethereum, and 3) the “Spoos” [SP500 CFD]

… all 3 traded on the MT4 / MT5, and while the “Spoos” are slightly higher in

cost at Coinexx [0.2 index points, versus SIMPLE FX which has the best spread],

overall Coinexx has far superior LOWER crypto costs than anybody I’ve seen on

the MT4 / MT5, and depending on BTC price anywhere from 30% - 40% cheaper

than trading costs at Phemex or Binance on an “open order book” [OOB]

platform … and yes, Coinexx can be “slippage whores”, just like anywhere you

go, so if you press the “buy” button and BTC is going up like a shooting star in

the night sky, you ain’t gonna like your fill … BUT I’ve never had a problem with

crypto withdrawal from them, and so at least for now they got that going for

themselves.

Given this somewhat new paradigm for the PAMM’S trading markets, I’ve

rearranged the weekly 20 Day Range MA & MEDIAN values and shortened the list

to our 3 markets … everything else is bullshit anyway! … Directly below the table

for the week.

click on table to enlarge

A couple of things need to be considered when viewing this table … 1) the

average [A] & median [M] values are from NYSE hours, i.e 9:30 AM EST - 4 PM

EST …this cuts out the microsecond large moves that come with bullshit econ

reports from the propaganda whiz kids in “The Swamp” at mostly 08:30 AM EST,

and gives a better idea of what you can expect … while we can’t eliminate FED

meetings that skew the shit out of price, if they skew large enough then use the

median values … 2) in BTC, you need to SUBTRACT ABOUT $30 FROM THESE

VALUES CUZ OF THE SPREAD, AND FOR ETH ABOUT $1 … I could sit here all

day and list the “pros & cons” of ETH versus BTC … in the final analysis, pick

your poison and go with it … as for the “Spoos”, a median value just above 30

index points is really piss poor … remember the consecutive weeks above 100

index points? … now down around 30? … yea, pretty pathetic, but the future

holds unlimited opportunity, just remember that … onto the week at hand!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

THE DEATH OF MARKETS

 

“Surviving like Butch!!”

What you’re seeing in “markets” [cough, bullshit, cough] today is nothing short

of the complete “Sovietization” of the Banana Republic by corrupt Uniparty

POLS … while the private economy nosedives further down the rathole,

government CNTRL-P going “Brrrrrr” 24/7/365 to the tune of TRILLIONS OF

DOLLARS, keeps inefficient capital resources chasing bullshit boondoggles

with ever greater frequency … the most obvious the illegal, wasteful, and

immoral cash thrown at the cottage industry known as “illegal immigrants”

… nobody really knows what the “real” economy is doing, cuz it’s FUBAR

top-to-bottom mixed with government waste, abuse, and fraud … an article

today on ZH highlights this mess.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/great-growth-hoax

And cuz of it, we got the hoax of ever higher stock prices cuz that largesse finds

its way to the stock market and the money laundering that it brings, right along

with corporate buybacks, and the ever present buy side manipulation of the FED

via the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] … throw in the FED Lounge Lizards

who’ve never seen a bubble they don’t like, and the dictates of their masters in

the Rothschild banking consortium that owns the FED, and you have the makings

of what we see today, all the while every other market dies on the vine … even

crypto now, caught in the clutches of “tail wags dog” with ETF “Scumbaggery &

Fuckery” on the horizon, thus limiting crypto’s movement to a fraction of its former

self … this is no accident!

Can’t rally cuz everybody and their pet rabbit is long, and won’t break cuz the

usual suspects won’t let it … there, I summed up the “Spoos” for you … crypto

is basically dead, but the risk is still there … gold, oil and FX are a FUBAR joke,

and if you’re lucky you too can make $3 in a day to buy 2 cokes like Butch!

… problem is markets have lost their ability to “correct” … they just drift now,

until somebody says something, then move in a microsecond before dying again

… enlighten me, how the fuck do you make money in this environment without

risking 10X++ any kind of reward on a trade? … without VIX, where do you go?

…this is truly pathetic, and all you can do is wait it out.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

THE 1 MICROSECOND MARKETS … ANOTHER NFP SCAM NUMBER

 

“Oh boy, another NFP Idiocy Day dead ahead!!”

How many reversals can we put into one NFP day? … apparently more than one!

… throw in a soft ISM Services stat 1 ½ hours later, and specs are jumping out of

their shoes … right, got played again? … Congrats!

And while crypto over at IQCENT remains FUBAR, thanks to “anti-scalping”

software the LP thinks will solve their losing money problem in crypto [it won’t,

it’ll only completely destroy whatever they got now into the dust], today saw

ample opportunities via “arb scalping” in USDJPY after both reports

… “arb scalping” in USDJPY HAS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT THEORETICAL

PREMISE THAN THAT OF CRYPTO, AND SO THEY ARE TOTALLY DIFFERENT

… BASIS PREMIUMS AND DISCOUNTS ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR ABOUT 30

MINUTES AFTER EACH REPORT … IF YOU CAN’T MAKE MONEY FROM THIS,

YOU CAN’T MAKE MONEY PERIOD! … +20 PIPS to -20 PIPS quite often, and all

of us here doing multiple “arb scalps” in the 12 - 15 PIPS range in seconds in

USDJPY … quoting Miss Gimpy, “I like free money in seconds, I really do!!”

Both reports taken together with revisions, and you end up with a smidge softer

set of numbers, despite the headline jobs bullshit … for USDJPY, it’s gonna be a

very hard task to get the massive cuts in rates for 2024 starting in March the

street is anticipating … given all of the swirling horseshit around “will they or

won’t they” from the Morons at the BOJ about yield curve control and maybe

changing policy towards higher rates, who quite frankly are playing the world

with words, and the on again / off again FED Lounge Lizards about rates, it

should keep USDJPY SIZZLING with each rumor hitting the wires.

Historically, double reversals with size [range] go NOWHERE … they simply run

out of gas and most specs get blistered with preset Fib ratios, Elliot Wave

bullshit, and/or other preset support / resistance levels that get violated, along

with time wasting away to the close … the number of days that turn into bigger

ranges and allow the double reversal to flourish are fractions of a percentage

point! … you really want to bet on that? … that doesn’t mean just cuz it won’t

go further that it’s gonna go the other way, simply that the “Loser Formation”

and/or serious chop is the most likely scenario going forward … and once ISM

came in softer than expected, it’s a race to the lows, put in the double reversal,

and then stall and kill accounts looking for more … we did get a USDJPY bounce

better than I would have thought, but this market doesn’t give a shit what you or

I think, it’s ALL about who’s stuck getting cashews squeezed and what level will

the manipulators let it go towards … in other words, “order flow”. 

I have almost finished work on the FINAL version of the scalpers algorithm, which

will be available on Sunday’s blog update … it’s “color coordinated”, meaning

remember the colors to be long / short and that’s all you need … “The Mrs.” &

Miss Gimpy love it, and it takes all guesswork out of the equation … I simply

can’t make it any faster or EASIER to understand & implement … if you can’t

make money with this, you either aren’t following directions & rules, OR the

market has lost all of its VIX [or a good portion of it] … one you control, the other

is out of our hands … coming Sunday … no trades for the PAMM today as I ran

tests on this algo to make sure i got nothing wrong or left something out that

should be there … what better day to do it than an NFP Idiocy Day where

anything can happen.

IQCENT HAS TAKEN CRYPTO AND GONE FULL RETARD FUBAR! … I ain’t

interested in trading Bitcoin in $50 - $100 increments [or much more!] that leave

me stranded when the market reverses and at their mercy for pricing … ditto for

MATICUSDT and the other altcoins where it’s 20+ ticks … who the Hell would

agree to this? … but no mind, “arb scalping” USDJPY today with 2 “bigly &

yuge” reports [NFP & ISM], along with regular algorithm trading from the long

side sees “The Syndicate” UP APPROXIMATELY 0.6% ON light to modest

volumes … be back Sunday mi Amigos! 

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas