BEWARE, THE “EXPERTS”ARE OUT WITH PREDICTIONS

“I’m a TRADER, I follow reality!!”

Surfing the internet this weekend, the locusts have returned! … not the kind that

come out of the ground every 17 years, the kind that show up after major price

moves in major markets and hawk predictions … go back 45 years to 1979, and

you’ll find the same broad “gold is going to $5,000 very soon” articles

everywhere, along with silver is the new gold … and “Stonks”? … well, it’ll be

another 3 years [1982[ before “Spoos” futures trading starts, but generally

speaking nobody but nobody cares about “Stonks” … EXIT QUESTION: “So,

who predicted this for the next 45 years? … try NOBODY!”

True trading follows reality, and the ability to shift gears constantly and

consistently when criteria changes … it takes the ability to realize you’re trading

numbers and nothing else, that repeat chart formations endlessly along with 

emotions over time … you aren’t trading a market per se, you’re judging human

behavior that endlessly repeats … over time, only the names change, cuz there’s

nothing new under the sun! 

That wasn’t much of an overnight session to say the least … one of the most

boring in recent memory … and of course, we’re all still here, with Iran and Israel

having their snowball fight while useless diplomats chew their fingernails … and

if both aren’t careful, they’ll both be put on “double secret probation” by Twits

who think they have any say in the matter.

First, playout war in the media letting the other side know in advance what you’re

doing … makes no sense if you goal is to win, but since when does any western

democratic power want to win anything? … the idiot criminal in the WH thinks

you lob snowballs, and whichever side lands more snowballs inside the others

space wins! … then declare “victory”! … XI & Putin must be laughing their

collective asses off at this … meanwhile rates on the 10 YR stay comfortably

above 4.6%, which makes me wonder just who is that fucking stupid to loan the

Banana Republic money at that rate, given inflation, taxes, and loss of

purchasing power?

Gold and silver “dead cat bouncing” today, the “Spoos” not liking higher rates

[finally] … crypto simply fucking around and awaiting the BTC halving tomorrow

or on the 17th … from the way the “Spoos” are acting, this is the second day in

a row of the back “6” of the paradigm … given we went up about 1,200 index

points on “Hopium” for lower rates, and they’re not coming anytime soon, WTF

is the index still doing up here in the clouds? … CTA positioning is heavy LONG,

so look out below cuz it may get nasty before it gets better … a couple of hours

to the close, and hanging in RM=4 territory on the m15 for over an hour for the

“Spoos” is not a positive development … you don’t normally get an hour to

buy the low!

We started the open off with a rally, which to be quite frank made no sense given

the move in rates higher off of the retail sales number … then Bingo!, Bango!,

Boom!, here comes the sellers … from there, it’s been non stop selling all day

long, and while me may or may not get a “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT} bogus

rally in the last half hour or so, this is the second day in a row in the back “6”

of the trading paradigm … onto tomorrow.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😍😍,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

 

OF COURSE IT’S “RIGGED” … IT ALWAYS HAS BEEN!

 

“When you’re on the wrong side of a trade in a rigged market!!”

They trade billions, if not trillions per day, yet they never get into trouble with

their trades … why is that? … cuz they’re sooooo smart? … maybe it’s cuz of

what I’ve known for decades, first observing it in trading pits … the data game is

“RIGGED”, and they are positioned perfectly for what is coming at the appointed

time … doubt me? … well now we know from the BLS it’s true, thanks to ZH

… the link directly below.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/scandal-rocks-bidens-labor-dept-lying-

about-sharing-non-public-inflation-data-secret-group

I have maintained for decades, that ALL REPORTS ISSUED BY GOVERNMENT

[including the FED] be done on Saturday mornings … this way ALL MARKET

PARTICIPANTS, LARGE AND SMALL, CAN ASSESS HOW THEY WANT TO

TRADE COME SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE OPEN AND BEYOND DURING THE

WEEK … but that ain’t ever gonna happen cuz scumbag LP banks and HFTs

have got to have the ability to screw over institutional & spec accounts for all

they are worth, and since the POLS, Apparatchiks, & regulators want their

“skim”, it’ll continue and never change.

Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … Whoops!, not even the whiz kids can lie

about this one, a little hotter than “Taliban Joe” would like to see, and more

importantly the 10 YR. Treasury over 4.5% yield now and rising … no worries,

just print MOAR! … consumer prices, as measured by the government which are

woefully inadequate as well as inaccurately underreported, are up 19% since

“Diaper Joe” has been Preezy … not a single month this Doofus has been

Preezy have prices fallen … worst Preezy in history, and at least Jimmy Carter

feels a sense of relief! … digging through the data, I do note that typewriter

ribbon and horseshoes fell in price, so at least the Amish might be happy

… question is, though, with everybody and their pet rabbit positioned long gold,

where are the stops you absolutely know the bigger players have their eyes on?

… wait for it, it’s coming!, and you won’t need me to tell you about it, cuz you’ll

see the down “bigly & yuge” red spikes on the m15 and the m1.

With today’s casino action brought to you by government, a few things need to

be mentioned that have a direct bearing on trading these more volatile markets

… 1) especially with “important” numbers being released as determined by the

propagandists on Wall Street, you need to recognize that the RM levels upon

release of data DON’T MEAN MUCH OF ANYTHING! … meaning panic has no

bounds and can’t be measured by us cuz we have no way of seeing order flow

coming through institutional order desks … 2) RM levels currently constructed

for gold and “Spoos” are undervalued and need to be raised to higher volatilities

… RM=4 levels should in no way, at least theoretically, be hitting this MAX as

often as it is … LESS THAN 5 TIMES PER YEAR, NOT EVERY DAY WE TRADE!

… and 3) I’m adding spot silver [XAGUSD] TO OUR PAMM TRADING LIST MIX,

BRINGING OUR COVERED MARKETS TO 5 … the “vegas mq4 code for support /

resistance levels” based on volatility is available now over in “Download Links”

for silver … current RM levels are RM=1 & RM=2 for the m1 chart, and RM=2 &

RM=3 for the m15 chart … I’ll be updating the 20 Day Range MA & MEDIAN, and

I’ll have new higher VIX RM levels for gold and “Spoos” on the upcoming

Sunday blog update.

Now that silver has broken through $26 per OZ., going forward there should be

some really good trading opportunities … better than gold I would say with a

better bid/offer spread of usually under 1 penny per OZ., but will blow out on

sharp moves up/down … quite frankly, paying 35 - 40 cents per OZ. in gold AND

having to deal with sometimes horrendous slippage is a pain in the ass … I don’t

know how slippage is going to be in silver, but I don’t see how it can get any

worse than gold … in any event, I’ll start with low volumes and work from there

… GiddyUp! … once up & running, let me remind traders, though, trade silver

based on silver signals, NOT on what’s happening in gold! … yes, they strongly

correlate positively, but different dynamics for different markets … it’s not even

11 AM EST in NY, and we got a DOUBLE REVERSAL GOING IN SILVER, with an

approximate 89 cent range [so far]! … and as you’ll see, RM=2 on the m15 chart,

and RM=1 on the m1 chart, hold very well … better really … EXCEPTIONAL!,

IN FACT!

With the exception of the 2 crypto pairs BTC & ETH, where spreads and very high

margins require a lot more money in your account, and thus make them less

attractive than the other 3 pairs, all 3 of SP500, GOLD, & SILVER have moved

quite well today … out of the 3, gold the most bat shit crazy [BSC] with price

quite erratic versus the other 2 … blink your eyes, and it can get quite nasty

… the “Spoos” are getting a much needed correction, and going forward it’s a

question of where the support is on the way down … and just as an aside, the

“Spoos” are the only ones we trade that trade inside an “88/6/6” paradigm that

I have written about extensively before … the entire system is rigged to see

“Stonks” go higher, and stock markets don’t exist so prices can go lower

consistently … the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] certainly make sure of that!,

right along with corporate buybacks … and IMHO, it makes complete sense to

trade this market from the long side ONLY, but since I’m not your MOM, you

can do what you like.

Time for FED Lounge Lizards “minutes” from the last rigged meeting … just what

we need today, more VIX! … aaaaaaaaaaaaand, nobody gives a shit … rightly so,

as why would anybody in their right mind listen to these Elite assholes who spew

propaganda daily with the intent of manipulating “Stock Bellies” along with other

markets? … bought and paid for!

One trade today for the PAMM in gold … PAMM UP FRACTIONALLY … not

interested in holding anything for anything but a scalp, and this trade lasted far

too long for my liking … of course, 5 minutes later it takes off to the upside, but

that’s water under the bridge and I don’t really care … hopefully metals can

correct from here, although I’m not looking for much … “Stock Bellies” look to

be the most vulnerable, as headwinds mount via rates and geopolitical events

… onto tomorrow!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

THE DEATH OF MARKETS

 

“Surviving like Butch!!”

What you’re seeing in “markets” [cough, bullshit, cough] today is nothing short

of the complete “Sovietization” of the Banana Republic by corrupt Uniparty

POLS … while the private economy nosedives further down the rathole,

government CNTRL-P going “Brrrrrr” 24/7/365 to the tune of TRILLIONS OF

DOLLARS, keeps inefficient capital resources chasing bullshit boondoggles

with ever greater frequency … the most obvious the illegal, wasteful, and

immoral cash thrown at the cottage industry known as “illegal immigrants”

… nobody really knows what the “real” economy is doing, cuz it’s FUBAR

top-to-bottom mixed with government waste, abuse, and fraud … an article

today on ZH highlights this mess.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/great-growth-hoax

And cuz of it, we got the hoax of ever higher stock prices cuz that largesse finds

its way to the stock market and the money laundering that it brings, right along

with corporate buybacks, and the ever present buy side manipulation of the FED

via the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] … throw in the FED Lounge Lizards

who’ve never seen a bubble they don’t like, and the dictates of their masters in

the Rothschild banking consortium that owns the FED, and you have the makings

of what we see today, all the while every other market dies on the vine … even

crypto now, caught in the clutches of “tail wags dog” with ETF “Scumbaggery &

Fuckery” on the horizon, thus limiting crypto’s movement to a fraction of its former

self … this is no accident!

Can’t rally cuz everybody and their pet rabbit is long, and won’t break cuz the

usual suspects won’t let it … there, I summed up the “Spoos” for you … crypto

is basically dead, but the risk is still there … gold, oil and FX are a FUBAR joke,

and if you’re lucky you too can make $3 in a day to buy 2 cokes like Butch!

… problem is markets have lost their ability to “correct” … they just drift now,

until somebody says something, then move in a microsecond before dying again

… enlighten me, how the fuck do you make money in this environment without

risking 10X++ any kind of reward on a trade? … without VIX, where do you go?

…this is truly pathetic, and all you can do is wait it out.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: DELUSIONAL REALITY, THEN THERE’S CRYPTO

 

“It’s EVERYWHERE in financial markets … know the reality, then defeat it!!”

I’m gonna start with traditional markets and work my way over into crypto

… there is no bigger “delusional reality” than “Stock Bellies”, with FED

manipulation via the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] when banks get stuck

long futures and need a little help from central bank Apparatchiks … then there’s

the scam of “corporate buybacks”, pumping “Stonks” [the right ones] higher

cuz it reduces the float of stock outstanding, thus raising EPS [earnings per

share] while directors sit and do not a “Hoover Dam” thing, white their stock

options shoot ever higher … biggest Elitist scam going, and totally sanctioned

by the Lounge Lizards at the FED! 

In no way, shape, or form are any of the 3 “Stock Bellies” markets even close to

representing the Banana Republic economy, future earnings that are

intentionally “low balled” by “expert” analysts so they always beat expectations

[just another Wall Street scam], it’s simply a financial derivatives shitshow circus

of monetary manipulation, where Lounge Lizards manipulate rate hikes / rate cuts

“blah blah, yada yada” for the benefit of major scumbag banks on Wall Street

… when these unethical, moral hypocrites & liars retire, where the fuck do they

show up for the “quid pro quo” payoff? … that’s right, on Wall Street somewhere,

getting 7 digit “compensation packages” for their prior “grift” to their masters

… on the other side of the coin so to speak, there’s the ever present sell side

manipulation by the FED via the “”Rally Protection Team” [RPT] to suppress

gold prices, whereby they use the CNTRL-P machine to create fiat they use to

sell futures and options in massive quantities … and since there’s no

accountability OR ZERO transparency, nobody really knows the extent of the

gold market losses the FED is sandbagging on their balance sheet, but it is

generally believed by many gold analysts that it’s in the HUNDREDS OF

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF LOSSES … AND GROWING THANKS TO THE

EFFORTS OF THE CHICOMS IN CALLING THEIR BLUFF!

One of the big problems traders face when they try and analyze any of the

traditional markets on the MT4, is that VOLUME stats are skewed by institutions,

hedgers & dealers … only the banks keep the spec figures to themselves and

we ain’t ever gonna get that information cuz it’s proprietary to the bank and they

use that to manipulate order flow to their “bigly & yuge” advantage … only with

a little logical deduction can we ever hope to get close to the truth of what specs

[and ONLY specs] are doing at the moment in real time … it’s a big problem for

traditional markets, but since crypto pairs are almost 100% spec driven &

oriented [no banks, just “arbs” that reflect spec order flow … they ain’t there to

speculate on where price is going.], volume stats at major crypto houses can be

very valuable indeed!

For “arb scalping” on IQCENT, or simply scalping and/or day trading, you have

to have another major house providing accurate up-to-the-second market

bid/offer data [e.g., Binance or Phemex] for crypto, and if your trading traditional

markets at IQCENT [e.g., EURUSD], a house provider with ZERO SPREAD or a

place like Coinexx, which has a very tight spread, OTHERWISE YOU COULD GET

SCREWED ROYALLY BY PAYING A “BIGLY & YUGE” PREMIUM, to where the

market actually is at … I only use IQCENT for their “tick chart”, so I can see the

bid/offer, and where their very latest quote is at, and order entry and liquidation

… I don’t use IQCENT for charts … cuz of their “premiums & discounts” to price,

if you only use their charts you will get inaccurate information, as well as the

fact you could end up buying premium and then selling a discount, or vice versa.

Starting today, I’m changing the “arb scalping” and/or scalping & day trading

algorithm to reflect volume [MA VALUE = 10], and I’m changing the parameters to

reflect faster changes in market sentiment, especially crypto … the “TEMA”

[White line] goes to period 13, the the “EMA” [Aqua] goes to period 7 … directly

below, on the “Gann Square of Nine” [So9], you can see that the relationship flips

90°, from a 45° conjunction / opposition straight line [9 & 17 cell values], to a 135°

conjunction / opposition straight line [7 & 13 cell values].

click on ANY image, chart, or table to enlarge

I alluded on Friday to the PAMM going back to the NDX100 … that’s not gonna

happen … upon some analysis & reflection we’re sticking with Gold [XAUUSD]

for 2 big reasons … 1) we’ve finally got gold over 2K, and it looks favorable for

further range and VIX values to go substantially higher … in other words, gold is

finally reflecting the reality of the Banana Republic being on a PAR with the

Weimar Republic circa 1920’s, along with Venezuela & Zimbabwe … the ChiComs

are calling the Lounge Lizards bluff, and world central banks are noticing!

… physical gold markets in Moscow, Shanghai, & Singapore are trading at

substantial premiums to the “paper manipulation” scheme of the current gold

cartel of “COMEX / LBMA / FED” … the proverbial writing is “on the wall” for

this cartel to meet its demise! … and 2) volume figures, which I’ll show for gold

in a second, are more accurate than any of the other MT4 markets!

Currently, on this side of the globe, and via offshore brokerage houses

[e.g., Coinexx], gold can be trades in one of 3 forms … 1) regular COMEX futures

[1 lot volume = 100 oz. … 2) “MICRO” COMEX futures [1 lot volume = 10 oz

… and 3) LBMA XAUUSD [spot gold, 0.01 volume lot = 1 oz. … and on the

Coinexx MT4 platform, Coinexx uses #3.

From the CME Group, directly below are first the regular futures “volume & open

interest” through Friday’s close on December 1 … right below that are the same

stats for the “MICRO” futures contract … [the “MICRO” contract a direct

response from the CME to all of the traders who trade gold offshore in 1 oz.

increments … they don’t like losing business, but if you trade in the U.S., you’re

inviting government scrutiny and problems for yourself.

If you study these figures, you’ll notice that for regular futures, volume and open

interest [OI] are relatively steady through all of gold’s up / down movement

[note: volume & OI are down from 10 years ago, when they were DOUBLE what

they are now!] … that’s cuz almost NO SPECS TRADE THE BIGGER CONTRACT

… it’s LBMA members hedging, CTA’s [commodity funds] buying / selling, hedge

funds, and the ChiComs buying to either take delivery or using the EFP [exchange

for physical] portal to get physical within 48 hours … whatever, it’s constant.

A different story in the “micro” contract, which is almost 100% spec futures

traders in the U.S. [what idiots!] … with the gold runup in the last week or so,

look at how OI has dropped substantially from prior periods! … position traders

have taken their profits! … “micro” represents about 10% of the regular futures

volume, and it’s where the specs are … and it’s at that margin where volume

figures on a shorter time frame [MA = 10m] can DIFFERENTIATE what specs are

doing versus the ebb & flow from the bigger boys who dominate the regular

futures … directly below, from Friday, gold with 1) the vegas code for

support / resistance, 2) TEMA [white line, period 13] & EMA

[aqua line, period 7, H/L2], and 3) volume figures [LIME UP VOLUME, RED

DOWN VOLUME] with 10 period MA of volume [orange line].

Lime volume spikes ABOVE THE ORANGE MA LINE after runups in price almost

always signal a short term top … lime volume spikes above the orange MA line

after a decline in price are bullish, but you need confirmation from a TEMA / EMA

crossover … Red volume spikes ABOVE THE ORANGE MA LINE after declines in

price almost always signal a short term bottom …  red volume spikes above the

orange MA line after a runup in price are bearish, but you need confirmation from

a TEMA / EMA crossunder … there aren’t any “arb scalps” for gold, but for either

scalping from the long side or day trading, this is the kind of information you

need for good trades.

Same things apply to crypto … directly below, algo and volume IN SUCCESSION

for ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT, & MATICUSDT … here, the difference is “bigly & yuge”

from MT4 markets cuz the volume surges usually come from the Spec community

of traders [who I shouldn’t have to tell you are almost always wrong!].

The volume stats will help identify “arb scalps” at bottoms when you get a

“bigly & yuge” red spike in volume that’s clearly above the orange MA line.

Another market where I’ve identified “arb scalps” is on the MT4 in the NDX100

… at IQCENT, their NDX100 CFD trades between -16 to + 10 index points from the

bid/offer at Coinexx [normal difference is around -7 to -3 index points] … Coinexx

has a very tight “quoted” spread of 0.8 index points [not that you’re ever going

to get that, cuz slippage they’ve built into the quote can be anything from 1 to 5+

index points … yea, they’re that big of thieves and scumbags, but I’ve known that

for a long time in their “Stock Bellies” CFDS … the advantage here is that the

leverage for trading the NDX100 at IQCENT is 500:1 for margin purposes

… enough rope for anybody to hang themselves!

Directly below, the 20 Day & NY SESSION Range MA & MEDIAN values for the

upcoming week for selected markets.

Onto the week! … “Giddy up GOLD!” … OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright

I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!!

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

P.S.

The MT4 volume for charts stinks … over in “Download Links” is

“volumeMA.mq4”, which you can download and install into your MT4 … it’s

much better and allows for a volume MA … in the “Colors” section, RED is

first, followed by LIME, and then ORANGE on the bottom for the MA … enjoy!