MATH, CRITICAL THINKING, & TRADING … A FINE WITCH’S BREW

“Don’t make me release the flying monkeys!!”

Things are not always as they appear on the surface, and a great way to figure

out which markets deserve your trading attention and which don’t, is to take the

bid/offer spread and divide it into the 20 Days Range MA … directly below the

table for that for some most active pairs on the MT4.

click on table to enlarge

In the table, in the last columns are the numbers if markets lose approximately 30%

of their volatility from current levels … and as you can see, gold, Nat Gas & Crude

oil, IF THEY AREN’T FLYING AROUND LIKE CRAZED MONKEYS, they are relatively

expensive to trade, and most likely you’re throwing money away … the best pairs

are GBPUSD & DOW30 IN TERMS OF LOWEST COST … which leads me to point

out, that at Turnkey even with what appears like a high spread of 4 index points for

the DOW30, it’s still cheap to trade relative to its VIX … meaning at 3 index points

it’s still a better deal than other markets … and what you’ll discover at other

houses that have lower index point spreads [e.g., SIMPLE FX], is that slippage is

snuck in as the bid/offer spread changes, so that in effect you’re paying close to

4 index points there as well … and I can attest, the Mrs. has found this out the

hard way … in other words, the spreads I have quoted in the table are the TRUE

SPREADS, and you’re paying them one way or the other … either low spread,

higher slippage … OR, higher spread, lower slippage … nobody is getting anything

for free here …  however, the DOW30 is better than the SP500 and the NDX100

when it comes to cost … and while I don’t entirely trust Turnkey’s LP’s to handle

trades fairly 100% of the time, I also got to apologize for saying they’re “rip offs”

… they aren’t … just right with everybody else at the end of the trade.

Today sees another blowout headline day for GBPUSD / CABLE, with Truss

resigning as PM, a 44 day stint that makes her the dubious record holder of the

shortest Prime Minister of Great Britain in history … Cable goes straight up, then

one of the FED PIE HOLES reiterates higher rates for longer, and Cable goes

straight down … ditto for the DOW30, while crude diddle farts around and has

another very sub par range day relative to its 20 Day Range MA … unless the

spread is right, and unless oil is moving, leave it the Hell alone, there’s better

markets for dollar gains … I’m adding DOW30 to my list of tradeable markets, so

now we got 4 … GBPUSD / CABLE, USDJPY, WTI CRUDE OIL, & DOW30 … right

now I’m not watching YEN much cuz of intervention fears around the YEN’S 30+

year lows of 150, and the fact cuz of that it’s lost much needed VIX in the process

… oil is doing us no favors by shrinking ranges, and the fact that Turnkey’s LP’s

in oil are playing games with the spread … that leaves tradeable candidates of

Cable & DOW30, which provide decent VIX and range movement.

It looked early on like there could be some DOW30 algo buy signals, but once the

FED PIE HOLE took away the punch bowl from the rally party, “Stock Bellies”

headed south in a hurry and have never recovered … Cable traded better, but not

by much … only 1 algo buy signal in Cable today … TURNKEY PAMM UP

SLIGHTLY … too much one-way action followed by news that took it the other way

in a straight line … a nice FAT “V” reversal today lower in the Dow 30, with Cable

correlating nicely but lagging slightly … we need better up/down in terms of

corrective activity for a higher number of algo signals, which is cyclical so I’m

expecting a return to normal. 

This straight move shit is for the birds! … adding DOW30, even with dubious fills

sometimes will help with profitability on days when FX is nothing but chop city,

and oil is relatively dead … no worries, we’re headed in the right direction with the

proper markets and trading algorithm … onto tomorrow!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of  sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

TRADING IN FANTASY LAND

“Inside a secret meeting of the “Plunge Protection Team”!”

Only two things move markets anymore; 1) POLS & Apparatchiks moving

their lying lips, and 2) those large positions caught “short gamma” in a

market and then they panic … nothing else matters, literally nothing, and

paying any attention to it will bring heartache. And quite frankly, this is just

what they want to see at manipulator HQ each and every day.

It will be interesting to see today, if the NDX100 starts going tapioca city, how

many times one of Trump’s flunkies gets rolled out in front of the microphones,

or quickly invited to CNBC for an economic pep talk sham interview to

stabilize, or even lift stock prices. “Just think WWII, the bombers are

overhead, the city is being destroyed, and you’re being told there’s victory at

every turn … what’s the difference really”?

Meanwhile, if it wasn’t so “Hoover Dam” funny it would be pathetic, gold is

over in its corner pretending to exist and be relevant … the only way to

describe this market is the following … “a little song, a little dance, a little

seltzer down your pants” … thank you, your scumbag bullion dealer friends.

The folks heavily buying gold today, IMHO, simply the next iteration of the

chumps who buy the rock as it’s getting rolled up the hill, so that it can

“Thelma & Louise” again later … question is, how many days/weeks will it be

before the sell stops get hit off on the downside cuz of no upside momentum

being carried forward?

The action today in the stock indices, particularly the NDX100, is surprising

me … I thought today could have had a “washout capitulation” event early

on … huge 3 strikes against tech today: 1) broken down China trade deal,

2) a major technical breakdown through the HR4 200 period MA on the

downside, and 3) the Supreme Court ruling against one of the FAANG

darlings, Apple. However, what we’ve seen today, is what I would call the

“3 steps down, 2 steps up” market that is a B. I. Itch to trade … neither longs

or shorts feel very comfortable trading, and the spikes from hell all over the

M1 charts. As we move into the afternoon trading, I get the distinct feeling

there are traders and investors looking for somebody to say something and

ignite a rally … I think the market is on the verge of a “suicide watch”, and

any moves after 2 PM EST that start hitting a new low for the day could get

very, very ugly … which by the way is what we need to see before any decent

bounce can commence. Quite frankly, these markets should be a lot lower

given the news.

There isn’t anything here today [NDX100] that makes me want to buy

anything … it’s a train wreck lower, with spikes down that come quickly, and

then stabilize for awhile before the next rinse & repeat drill … and again

today, what do we see at the NYSE open? … more buying not appreciated if

you want the market to go higher later … as I’ve said, we need to see a lower

NYSE open that attempts to go lower, and then fails … that sets the stage for

a very nice short squeeze … so far the last 7 market days, not one of them has

had this including today.

The backdrop of negative news today outweighs anything Trump could tweet

… that’s probably why nobody has been on the wires with the BS brigade

… that doesn’t mean it’s a “slam dunk” to be short though … the moves up

are just as dangerous, although they come quicker. It’s simply not a day to

buy … period.

Onto tomorrow … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

NOBODY GETS TO SEE THE WIZARD

“Yea well … I clicked my heels 3 times & all I got is sore ankles!”

The only thing left, is to send in the “flying monkeys” … first 4 hours in the bag, and it’s a complete “shit show”, replete with the now obligatory Cable “rumor mill” spikes while EURUSD is in a coma. No less than half a dozen 20 – 30 PIP+ blasts to the upside/downside taking every GBP cross to the woodshed for some “bloodletting”; and of course, add it all up, and the market is nowhere. Everything from PM May being assassinated by ISIS, the “Brexit” deal is imminent [well, not quite], and finally it’s “over and a failure” [well, not quite] … and here we sit at Noon London time, and anybody trading anything has to be in complete shock at the utter lack of a market in anything … it’s been nothing but a panic driven rumor mill, no doubt inspired and given credence by LP banks who pass rumors to corporate clients right before they front-run their orders.

And for you doubters out there, just remember the $3.5 billion Dollar notional order to buy GBPUSD via HSBC, that HSBC traders got caught front-running to the tune of an $8.5 million-dollar profit at the corporation’s expense, just a few months ago. Sure, they got caught, and got fined $100 million … big whoop … they do this every single frickin’ day multiple times … pay the fine, fire a few traders, it’s back to biz … now STFU and leave us alone.

Meanwhile, people are starting to notice the obvious; to wit, the following ZH headline [linked below], about how one bank dealing desk has labeled today as “headline havoc”.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-06/pound-tumbles-amid-brexit-chaos-headline-havoc

Cuz I got a news flash for you folks; there isn’t anybody with one functioning brain cell trading at the moment … it’s simply corporate order flow and dealers sticking it to them … and until the “Brexit” negotiation insanity is over and done with one way or the other, EURGBP is a complete hostage to these “out-of-nowhere” spikes that aren’t confined to simply a few PIPS; you get caught in one of these, and your stop is filled at the extreme price … and now, you got no way of getting it back. This is like going into a darkened 90 MPH wind tunnel and peeing, and then hoping for the best … cuz when this “Brexit” crap breaks, the algorithm is going to be “Zero, Zilch, & Nada” help to you if you’re on the wrong side. The good news? It will be over soon, and trading can resume again with something else to worry about.

Almost closing time in Europe, and while the LP’s have settled down with front-running corporate orders and jacking Cable up/down, the EURUSD has quietly slid below 1.18000 to put some slight pressure on EURGBP. But quite frankly, I could care less about the Euro at the moment; the full-fledged danger here is Cable, cuz the market is sitting on top of a very big truck of dynamite, and it’s gonna blow, one way or the other, and expect it to be very messy. So, while the algorithm is very good at what it does, it has no idea of what is going to happen shortly. My guess here is that it’s going to be Cable negative, or otherwise the market would have heard something about this slam-dunk, done deal, that is increasingly looking “iffy” … and if that happens, Cable will be in the car with “Thelma & Louise”, and EURGBP will be “to the moon Alice”, and there’s no way of side-stepping the risk other than leaving it the hell alone.

Everybody is standing in line waiting to see the “Wizard”, but the Munchkins are saying, “sorry, nobody gets to see the Wizard, cuz he’s too busy doing God’s work, and making the world a better place … figure the Brexit shit out on your own”. Well, that’s good advice, but the truth is nobody in the U.K. Gubermint has a clue either … and the silence here at the end of the European day is deafening … they’re stalling for time and grabbing at straws, but it’s “fish or cut bait” time and the clock is ticking … and failure is a real possibility.

I thought at the beginning of the day, right before Europe opened, that all of this would be solved before the close … it hasn’t been, and that in and of itself, says more than anything they can say. It means there is no solution that’s gonna fly. The only other scenario, is that DUP and the other coalition partners of May’s government are playing “hardball”, refusing to accept Brexit conditions until the last minute, in order to get more concessions for their vote. So, bottom line is that this could extend into Friday; but if it does, I would expect Cable to get punished … which begs the question, how low is low for bad news, and how bad does it have to be to pummel GBP further? And you wonder why anybody trading EURGBP was absent today?

This is the sixth day in a row of EURGBP looking to close the day within about 30 PIPS of each other, and right now it looks like a small “doji” day on the daily candlestick chart; this entire process is the typical government “shit show” you can almost “take to the bank” when it comes to either making a decision or solving a problem … this one is no different. The fact that it has caused almost total paralysis in EURGBP should be no surprise … the problem is, you simply don’t know when the info is gonna break; the only way you know is when your screen goes berserk.

Hopefully, it gets “solved” one way or another tomorrow; it’s a total bummer sitting here in limbo, watching the market go up one tick down another all day long with very little follow through … cuz if you end up trading it, you’re risking 100 PIPS+ to make whatever … so, no trades today, while we wait for these clowns to do something. Tomorrow sees no data from the U.K., but the E.U. reports GDP for Q3 at 4:00 A.M. EST; this has the potential to move EURUSD if the consensus is off the mark, but the real story are the continuing problems May’s U.K. government has in getting a “deal” with her coalition partners to present to the E.U. next week. Everybody keeps saying this week is “make or break”, so we just have to wait and see what happens … to say tomorrow will be interesting is an understatement; terror filled might be more appropriate. I, for one, will have my ruby slippers on just in case I need them. Onward & Upward!!

 PAMM spreadsheet directly below, and I’m outta here …

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!