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Friday, June 30, 2017

WHEN HEARTACHE RULES

“When you ignore rules, this is what can happen!”

Only because we have been experiencing record low volatilities in the stock indices for months on end [50+ year lows for intraday volatility], did yesterday’s mauling of stocks seem to some “like the end of the world”. Granted, even from years ago, yesterday’s decline was no slouch; but it wasn’t record breaking or somehow noteworthy in terms of its destruction of longs in the marketplace. Simply put, yesterday was a result of 2 factors; 1) the day before [Wednesday], which saw massive “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] intervention and prices going straight up, and 2) said prices going straight down when they failed to show up and defend the 21390 – 21400 price level on the way down. That, set off alarm bells all over the place, and the rout was on.

When you are trading, you have to have not only a theoretical framework that sets the foundation of your trading, this “framework” has to be implemented as well … and that gets done with established rules, that if you break them, what you are in essence doing is saying to yourself, “well, yea … I know I shouldn’t be doing this, but I have a “feeling” about this, that makes this time different … and if your “feeling” makes you a little cash from the effort, all you have done is made money to put into a theoretical savings account for the day when you’re gonna need it from getting whacked hard. The problem is, all those “feeling” days that made you money, aren’t going to come close to covering the losses incurred ONCE FROM STUPIDITY”. The trick, of course, which most people neglect in their haste to get rich from trading, is putting in place acceptable “trade-offs” that eliminate catastrophic risk while maximizing potential gain from day-to-day activity. What’s the point of any kind of trading rule if it limits gain and has no cap on risk?

On so many levels, yesterday provided a Ph.D. course in trading on what NOT TO DO, so you can be here today. And as I said yesterday, one of the rules of version 4 volatility algorithm is that either the 4th or 5th [you pick ‘em] leg down BOTTOM from the New York open [horizontal aqua line] has to be treated as your “line in the sand” for getting long either as a scalp or some kind of short term position; if that last level gets taken out, you simply have to “back away” up and until prices rebound back up above that last level. For example, yesterday morning 21402 was the 4th leg lower bottom … if that level gets taken out and prices go lower, you cannot get long again up and until the market rallies back above this level and you then get a subsequent buy signal. And the reason is simple: once the market starts taking out these lower levels in succession, you have in essence [whether you either know it, recognize it, or simply choose to ignore it] slid down the probability bell curve into “tail risk” territory.

And when you enter “tail risk” territory in trading, anything and everything can happen cuz there are NO RULES in this section of the bell curve. Sure, you can make a fortune when the market is in this stage, but you can also suffer career ending losses as well … and, knowing how well the universe works for traders at all levels, why should it favor you? … the fact is, in “tail risk” you’ve entered “The Twilight Zone” of trading where the laws, rules, trading activity, and otherwise chaotic “normal” conditions simply are not in play … they’ve been sent packing, and there’s a new Sheriff in town … one ruled by sheer panic on a grand scale. And while it’s easy in hindsight to come back later and look at a chart for the bottom, in real time you get literally slaughtered buying M1 algorithm signals too early and then getting forced out on further lower prices. So, how many “shots’ are you going to take? 2 … 4 … 6 … how many? And when each one hits you like a brick in the face within seconds, and the losses mount up, when do you “pull the plug”? These are simply questions I don’t want to be asking myself. Directly below, I’ve cataloged from yesterday the “selling hysteria” on the M1 on its race to the bottom, with arrows and commentary that highlights what I’m talking about.


Now, make no mistake about it, when you implement a rule inside any trading algorithm, or trading method, you “give up” something; nothing in financial trading is free. What I give up are gains from any/all bottoms lower than the 4th or 5th legs lower from the open … of course, somewhere has to be the bottom, so I know I’m giving up a real potential gain by not trading. For me, that is a totally acceptable “give up”, cuz there is no way for me to know where the selling carnage stops once the market gets into the “tail risk” portion of the bell curve. This isn’t a “faculty lounge” type of question where I’m debating existential bullshit from afar; this is real money on the line, and when SHTF there isn’t a person on earth that has any clue where it stops on the downside; markets pretty much always go farther and faster than anyone thinks is possible, and it simply doesn’t do anybody any good to lose substantial amounts of money.

Fact is, there are infinite days where the market never comes close to a 4th or 5th bottom leg lower from the open; there are “finite” days when this happens, and so I recognize that on these days it’s more important to limit risk than it is to “chase rainbows” and hope for the best. When the market gets into “SHTF mode”, it must come back up the bell curve and resume standard operating procedure [SOP] within prescribed standard deviations and trading behavior. In reality, we all have limited funds to trade with … nobody here is bill Gates or Uncle Warren B., and can keep buying no matter what until the cows come home …

Unless you have lived through the financial devastation of a stock market crash, you have no idea how quickly all of your money and your career can literally go down the drain. I was at the epicenter of the great crash of ’87 … I was front and center in the SP500 trading pit that day, and I saw many a good floor trader get wiped out within minutes, and at the end of the day got to hear all of the obligatory, “this can’t be happening to me … somebody wake me from this nightmare … WTF do I do now”? Did anybody think it was possible, that it could happen? Hell no they didn’t, and that’s the problem … there was no plan in place to deal with “tail risk” cuz it happens so infrequently.

So, when Newbies to trading tell me stuff like, “Aw c’mon man, you got to be buying on the way down for the inevitable rally back up, it simply tells me they have no clue what the hell they are doing, and simply can’t comprehend the risks to capital”. If all of your money gets taken away, how do you go forward? Now, yesterday didn’t even come close to this kind of scenario, but in the heat of battle, who the hell knows what’s coming next when the market starts to come unglued. “I may not be the “smartest guy in the room”, but I’m sure as hell not the dumbest, and you won’t find me surfing the ocean when a CAT 5 hurricane comes blowing in … “oh dude, the waves you’re missing” … I think you’re missing the point Skippy, I really do”!

Of course, there will be times [days] when the market will make a 6th low and then come roaring back and make new highs for the day, or something on that order, and that’s why the algorithm allows getting long on signals when price goes back above the 4th low from the open; so, if price does stage a dramatic comeback, we are all able to try and capture it; when that happens, price will have climbed back up the bell curve, back to normal.

Turning to today’s market … of course we’re higher … Chipmunks got to be fed at the open, what else is new? … what will be interesting today, is the depths to which the PPT will show up and ramp prices higher [maybe, maybe not], cuz if they do, on a Friday at the end of the quarter, things could get real interesting on the upside [yes, really].

First half hour, and you can clearly see the PPT at work … jamming the market higher through buy stops up to 21415 and making you wonder what kind of alternate universe have you walked into the last few days? From a “higher prices later” standpoint & “setup”, this is the worst case scenario for the day … get beat up yesterday and then open higher and try and go higher and fail … would expect nothing less from government types who don’t know Mr. Jack Squat about markets and market psychology.

Some very wicked down action in both the DAX30 and the Dow30, but relatively calm in the SP500; this has made for a very confusing and somewhat volatile trade. Whereas we’ve seen the PPT in the opening minutes, the rest of the day has been clear of anything they’ve done or attempted.

I have increased my trading volumes in this past week, so now we are running around 8X leverage; this is higher than past leverage, and reflects my trading philosophy going forward. With the way the indices are trading today, what with the LP “games and general thievery”, small commissions, and potential slippage, it’s a waste of time to scalp the Dow30; I simply have to “big game hunt”. What that means, is that you cannot compare PAMM results from April, May, and early June [started version 4 algorithm on June 19], with PAMM results from today, tomorrow, or in the future. As I have stated before, I’m looking for gains in the thousands while keeping losses in the hundreds, with the understanding that anything you see from a results standpoint ± $100 or so for the day is basically a “scratch day”; the numbers I’m tossing around while trading make $100 look like “paper clip” change. It doesn’t take but a few points to get that, and with the way the Dow30 trades, and the realities of the marketplace with the scumbag LP, I cannot look to get out of a position with simply a couple of points.

That certainly doesn’t mean I don’t care about the “bottom line”, cuz I do, but reflects the leverage and realities of the marketplace and the PAMM’s intent of making you a millionaire in the future. Before I switched to the version 4 algorithm from version 3, there simply was too high a few losses with too many very small gains, which had I been utilizing the version 4 algo, would have produced significant gains well past 1%.

Now, as I said yesterday, the only way the version 4 algorithm loses money [maybe, not a certainty] is a Dow30 market that does nothing but go down; whether by waterfall or some other way doesn’t matter [like 3 steps down 2 up]. The fact is, we are buyers of the first 4 or 5 consecutive lows underneath the New York open aqua line. From my perspective, I usually use the 4th low [if it gets there] as my “line in the sand”, where if the market breaks down from there I will not buy any longer until price recovers above that 4th low and I get a signal from the M1. So, this pretty much has to happen consistently over time, which does not have a very good probability of happening; but even so, the first day the market opens, goes lower and bottoms, and then takes off to the upside 100+ points, the PAMM will capture a lot of this and have a multiple percentage day to the upside. And this ladies and gents, is how I’m trading it.

Even on down days, the probabilities are very high the market isn’t going to be making it past the 4th low [or the 5th if you choose]; if it does, you have slid down the bell curve into territory you don’t want to be. OK, but even if/when you get a few of these a year, they still produce rallies off the lows that can be captured, and that is why losing money on the day is nowhere near a certainty. Granted, it’s worse than an up day, but it doesn’t guarantee a loss. So, most times the Dow30, in order to get past the 4th or 5th low under the NY open, will have to have a day’s down range of at least 150 points, and more likely greater than 200 points; and in order for the PAMM to consistently lose money, this would have to happen day-after-day well into the future. In the central bank trading paradigm we find ourselves in, does anybody believe with trillions of dollars of financial assets on their books, the central banks are going to sit back and allow this to happen day-after-day?

If it wasn’t for 2 mistakes I made, one with an order ticket and the other with dragging the mouse over the order box, and the 2 screw jobs the last couple of weeks from the LP that everyone knows about, June would have been a profitable month for the PAMM. It is what it is … I’m not cryin’ about it, just sayin’ … I’ve taken measures to make sure the LP never again screws us [which I’m keeping to myself and not sharing], so that’s not an issue going forward either. And finally, since I made the switch to the version 4 algo, it’s nothing but winners and some scratches; so, I’m happy with where we are at from a trading standpoint, and where we are going [which is sharply up!].

Today again, produced a blizzard of trades cuz we had 3 legs down in price for successive lows after the New York open; on the day, when the dust settled, we’re off by slightly less than $100 after commissions, which again I consider a scratch day considering the volume; if we were up $100, I’d say the same thing. If you do the math, we lost a couple of Dow30 points in sum considering the volume. So, buckle up mi amigos, cuz I have started max vol trading, and I fully expect the results to be much better than what we’ve seen; the last 2 days notwithstanding [basically both scratch days] July looks to be a great month.

Here in the last 90 minutes of the day, market is rallying, and while I figured it would show strength from some level in the afternoon because of end-of-quarter buying by institutions, I’m surprised that we find ourselves above 21400 in the Dow30. Going forward into next week, this strength is not healthy considering the declines we saw yesterday. It would be far better if the market had some more selling taking us down to the 21250 -21300 level, and then rallying back. My fear is that too rapid a comeback is only going to produce much more aggressive selling next week. I’m much more comfortable with normal declines, rather than waterfalls into oblivion where nobody has a clue where they stop cuz of the level of panic. In any event, we’ll see what happens next week.

And of course, in order to inflict as much pain as possible on those who are short, the PPT shows up 15 minutes to the close and ramps the Dow30 45+ points to the upside in 10 minutes, thus setting off buy stops in the process and taking us back up to 21435 area. “Why not just ramp it up to new all-time highs at 21560 and get it over with? Why should I have to wait until Monday? … and of course, once they are done, market slides 70 points straight down to lower than where it started 11 minutes earlier. Frickin’ morons … thanks, come again”!

I had also planned to have the PAMM spreadsheet fully functional today; seems the “trade history” function on the MT4 has other ideas. Turnkey is sending me via email, the details of yesterday’s and today’s trade so I can produce the spreadsheet; so far, I haven’t gotten it yet, but the back office said I would get it to me some time today. Whenever they get around to sending it, I’ll post the spreadsheet right here, directly below. It could be tonight, or tomorrow, or even Monday, but I’ll get it posted when I receive it. Onward & Upward!

Time for the beach … dog says we are soooo outta here … until Monday.

Have a great weekend everybody!

 -vegas


OUR TURNKEY FOREX  “PAMM/MAM”  IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Thursday, June 29, 2017

THE NEW TRADING BATTLEFIELD

“Oh … I see you’ve discovered trading on the MT4!”

I’ve got bad news and I’ve got great news; first the bad news. Trading the stock indices today, whether futures or CFD’s makes very little difference if any, the markets have become totally dominated by central bankers and their “Plunge Protection Teams” [PPT]; perceived “fun-dur-mentals” concerning the economy, corporate earnings, etc., are so “like yesterday”, and if you base your trading off of anything other than the “whims & wishes” of central bankers, you are essentially spitting into the wind and hoping it doesn’t hit you in the face. And what are these “whims & wishes”? Simply put, keep financial asset prices, at a bare minimum, stable, and with the needed appropriate actions of the PPT, crush short sellers into dust and in the process, increase stock prices. Everything else is dust in the wind.

Yesterday was as clear an indication of central banker “intent & purpose” as you will ever see in modern day trading; 1) comments the night before from ChairSatan Yellen in Londonistan reassuring the elites of the world they have “nothing to worry about” regarding the future, meaning of course the FED has “their backs” in stocks, 2) followed immediately the next morning within about an hour before the New York market opens with a “walk back” from the ECB regarding Super Mario’s speech the day before that the “talking heads labeled “hawkish shock”, 3) sent the PPT into action at the same time as shorts scrambled to save themselves, and most importantly 4) sent a clear message to those looking at taking asset prices down a notch, that their efforts [to put it mildly] will not work and cause them severe economic harm. “I’m guessing the 7 times the PPT came into the market yesterday drove that point home quite well wouldn’t you say”?

The bad news for traders is that it’s getting damn near impossible to compete with those who have invested millions of dollars and trade in nanoseconds [billionths of a second] versus all of us who trade in milliseconds [thousandths of a second]. Simply take a look at the complete “screw job” 2 Friday’s ago when the Dow30 on my MT4 screen rallies and I am long already; market goes 59 bid, then 60 bid, then 61 bid, and finally 63 bid … I had the liquidation “close position” order box up on my screen alongside my chart and the mouse directly on the close button, with my finger on the mouse … as long as it took my eyes to see the 63 bid and my brain tells my finger to “hit” the mouse to close, what are we talking about in terms of time? It’s about 3 – 4 tenths of a second for normal hand/eye coordination; OK, well that’s 300 -400 milliseconds. Even if I take the thieving, lying, scumbag LP at their word [which I don’t and you know it], 300-400 milliseconds is a lifetime to those trading in nanoseconds [like the HAL1000 super-duper computer system the LP uses to screw people … “Dave? … We don’t have a problem, do we Dave”?]. Add to that the normal approximate 150 ± 5 or so milliseconds to submit the order and send it via my ISP and then half way around the world into the LP’s computer system, and now the advantage is clearly in the LP’s favor; he’s dealing in nanoseconds, I’m trading in hundreds of milliseconds, and good ‘ole HAL can do the “shaving” [a/k/a slippage] and fill me with whatever doesn’t get the bankers indicted. As all of you know, I get filled at 56, 7 index points of slippage on a market that went straight up … so, taking the LP at their word [trust me, I can’t get there], the real market changed before I could even see it on my screen, and so it’s “fair”, and we did our job cuz the HAL1000 says so. Without the HAL1000, it’s impossible for humans to even comprehend nanoseconds … hell, regular TV images are streamed at approximately 30-35 still frames per second, and your eyes see nothing but continuity; in reality, the process is discontinuous, but our brains can’t decipher the difference. What chance do any of us have with the nanosecond banks?

Ok, I think you get the point that in the very short term, which I will define as under a second in time, none of us retail and/or small institutional traders stand a chance against the banks making the markets via their hedging in the futures markets … hit the market execution button and close your eyes for the fill … some days you’re the pigeon, and some days the statute.

The great news? Well, first accept the theorems of my premise; 1) central banks control the stock indices and are the new paradigm in financial trading, and up & until a complete revolution in western democracies takes place … both political & financial … this is the last paradigm shift you will ever see in trading, 2) the PPT is in the Dow30 and SP500 almost every day, bidding prices off of corrections, ramping prices up quickly on spikes, and slamming VIX non-stop, and 3) the G3 [ECB, BOJ, & the FED] will not let assets prices go down significantly without their permission and approval, and even with that it’s going to be one hell of a “4 step down, 3 quick steps up” type of scenario that is impossible to stay short in and make money, even if the indices go down some. As yesterday proves in “spades”; just when the momentum seems to be shifting, ever so slightly into the “bear camp”, and people are starting to whisper out loud that maybe … just maybe … the Dow30 or the SP500 looks set to “roll over” and go down some, what happens? The coordinated G3 action, followed by the PPT 7 times yesterday, and within a handful of hours, all that talk of “lower prices” is wiped away like it never existed. Their clear message to you? Get that thought out of your trader head of “lower prices”, unless you like the Pudding Business!

Which brings me to the “great news”; it’s the version 4 volatility algorithm in the stock indices. I said this yesterday, and I will repeat it again now cuz it’s important; this doesn’t mean the trades you initiate are 100% guaranteed wins and the algo is the “Holy Grail”; only an idiot or fool would ever make such a claim, and you’d be a bigger idiot and fool if you believed it. The only certainty in life is physical death; after that, everything is a probability wave function. Having said that, though, the only market event [not LP event like I’ve experienced the last week or so, where we get literally raped by the LP … “I’m sorry HAL, did I hurt your feelings”?] that has the “potential” [not certainty] to defeat the algorithm over a series of daily trades, is a market that plummets lower, rallies ever so slightly [few points MAX], and then continues to plummet repeating the whole process over the entire day. In other words, a market that crashes and never comes back. And realize, this is “potential”, not certainty, cuz if the market gets into this mode, there is a very strong probability there is significant news on the economic and/or geo-political stage, that puts the market into this ‘selling zone”. What’s even more probable if your brain is working properly, is that more than likely if the Dow30 goes down more than 300 – 350 points, and continues to keep going down, you’ll have enough common sense to back away until the dust settles, realizing at once the market is in “tail risk” territory, and a “6 sigma” event can easily become a “10 sigma” event and steamroll you in seconds. Ok, you might miss something … granted … but on the other hand, how many days in the last years, outside of Brexit & U.S. election in 2016, has the Dow30 gone down more than 300-350 points on the day? Whatever it is [likely zero], it’s less than a handful out of the thousands of days the market has traded. OK, there’s the version 4 volatility algorithms risk profile in “living color” explained in simple English.

As I have written before, my mentor Bert bludgeoned into my head, “choose the form of your destruction!”, and in the process, choose the least likely probabilistic event that can hurt you. Probability doesn’t mean guarantee, no matter how low it is on a daily basis; you always have to be “on guard” for things that can hurt you [LP thieving is a whole other kettle of stinking fish, but it has nothing to do with the actual market].

Now, I don’t want people to misunderstand me; I’m not “hyping” my algorithm, I’m simply stating some facts about it, along with the premise [foundation] upon which it is constructed … hell, I give it away for free for cryin’ out loud, so what would be my point? When I’m finished writing it, which I’m doing now, I’ll release it for viewing online or download in PDF. I’m simply laying out the criteria for successful trading in the PAMM, and giving traders who trade their own accounts [futures and/or CFD’s] the same roadmap.

Turning to today’s market … same old bat guano, different day … once we get to within a couple hours of the New York open, the central bank bids start appearing and the indices, no matter where they are, start to ramp up in anticipation of the institutional Chipmunks who show up in the first 5 minutes of every day and do their buying … granted, everybody else wants to sell to them at inflated prices, so we get to play this game every day thanks to the idiotic rules implemented [for the children … natch] so the people who buy for the institutional funds don’t team up with the people at the brokerage houses on their institutional trading desks and front run orders, and then later get bags full of cash under the table for the profitable scam. [Note: when trading pits ruled the world, nobody but nobody was better at front running and general scamming than the CME … it was called “paper bag Monday’s”, where “coincidentally” all of the brokers on the floor who filled orders for large brokerage houses would show up carrying paper bags with their ostensible “peanut butter & jelly sandwich with an apple” lunch, but from which I could see on the elevators looked very much like cash in a bag; imagine, what a coincidence all you guys decide to brownbag it every Monday.] Of course, the dirty little secret is that it doesn’t really make any difference, cuz now they simply pay “the tax” by buying higher prices cuz everybody knows they gotta do their ‘stuff” in the first 5 minutes; all they’ve done is cut out the middleman working for the bank, which the bank loves, and that’s why the rules are there … not for the clients, but for the bank.

Ok … wow … “who wants to be long stocks today?” … it’s good to see volatility return to the stock indices. Action today is the exact reverse from yesterday. EXIT QUESTION: “Where the hell is the PPT today”? Cuz, after yesterday you would expect them to be there … funny thing happened, though, after the NY open, and that’s the DAX30 getting absolutely “monkey hammered”, down 350 points from the day’s earlier high. And when the PPT didn’t show up at 21400 to protect yesterday’s blast off from that level in the Dow30, the sharks circled and the “feeding frenzy” to the downside commenced and hasn’t let up one damn bit. Directly below, conditions at the low of the day [so far], where you can see our lovely, fair, and gracious scumbag LP in the Dow30 jacked the spread way out to between 5 and 7 Dow30 points from 2. I wanted to show you this so you know it’s true what they do.


“Oh yea, the HAL1000 says nothing to see here; HAL, notice the spread please… everything is normal … I’ve checked my systems and all is well!” Crooks and thieves at work.

This is such an instructive day, but basically version 4 algorithm rules state that after the 4th or 5th leg down in prices [absolutely no more than the 5th leg], when the market is under the New York opening bid price represented by the aqua horizontal line, you have to stop BTFD [Buy The F-ing Dip] and “let it go”; only if the market rallies back above the 4th leg low can you even think about getting long again. And what does this do? It lets you “buy the bottom” on about 98% of down days, and keeps your donkey out of trouble on those ‘tail risk” days like today, where 300+ point moves down can really ruin your day. It’s not perfect, but it’s as close as I can get to “having your cake and eating it to”. I know from experience, this rule will save your donkey big time, and today is as “instructive” as it gets; especially, since yesterday the PPT was in here jacking this stuff up 7 times in 2 ½ hours. You think they’ve killed a few traders the last 48 hours; first the shorts and today the longs?

Early on, in the market’s initial weakness, I attempted several times to get long, and efforts to hang on for the “pony ride” off the bottom led nowhere. The 4th bottom led to gains that covered small early losses, and from that point on, it’s been straight down … once the 5th bottom came and went, I simply backed away and put my hands in my pocket, and quickly realized that after yesterday’s PPT clusterfark to the upside, today was seeing that manipulation being completely unwound and the potential for real damage to the downside has a much higher probability than I wanted to see or think about if long.

As I have stated many times, and if today doesn’t drive the point home nothing ever will … nobody has a crystal ball, and nobody knows what this stuff will do … analysts don’t know, traders [for the most part] don’t know, and the “talking heads” on CNBC sure as hell don’t know … what matters is the “setup” and nothing else … coming into today after the open, there was a strong probability breaks in price could be bought, simply from any carryover from yesterday’s straight up action all day long … however, it’s a probability, not a guarantee … so when the first few breaks rally off the low and don’t hold, you have to start to become really careful about buying this stuff … the key today was when the 21402 low was taken out after it rallied all the way back up to 21450 … from there, it was straight down almost 250 points. Remember, the “setup” is all that matters! And when the market goes into “tail risk” territory, you leave it the hell alone cuz I don’t trade in “tail risk” cuz you have no idea how bad it can hurt you, all the while your gains are minimal at best swimming against the current on the wrong side of the ‘tail risk” bell curve. “Thanks, I have no desire to lose big wampum money on market risk, LP shenanigans, and reversal daily candlesticks that look now like death, by being long on a down day, that outside the “Trump Dump”, the election last November, and Brexit a year ago, we haven’t seen in about a year and a half on any market trading day”.

Whoops, just checked the “trade history” part of the MT4 cuz Turnkey has just gotten it fixed from yesterday and emailed me, and instead of making money, I lost $10 today in multiple trades added up… OK, whatever, I thought from earlier I was up, but it doesn’t matter … I tried to hang on as long as I could and not make those long fills a scalp … if I had made them a scalp, we’d be up some, but I’m not upset looking at what the market did today and coming away with basically an unchanged day.

And while it is very tempting to go back in to the market and throw some numbers around, I’m not here to trade, I’m here to make money from trading … there’s a big difference between the two. I know everything in the version 4 algo is “gold” … soon, you’ll know it to … the problem, of course, is encapsulated perfectly by the old pit joke, “what’s the problem with buying a “6 sigma” down move in the Dow30”? ANSWER: “It’s on its way to being a “12 sigma” and it has wiped you out first before it turns from the bottom”. So, when you get into “tail risk” territory, and prices are gapping lower with impunity for the umpteenth time in the day, and like the chart above shows, the LP has widened the spread to ridiculous levels cuz of greed, and you wander in and buy a ‘green M1”, you find yourself up 2 Dow30 points and 45 seconds later you’re down 50 … now what … where does it stop? … why doesn’t it stop? … and the losses mount from bad to worse to “worser-er” too fast for you to be anything other than a “deer in headlights”. Well, guess what? It ain’t happening here. Market will be there tomorrow, we’ll get our chances again then, what’s the big deal? That’s how you have to approach days like today.

EXIT QUESTIONS OF THE WEEK: “Where did the PPT disappear to today, after yesterday’s brute show of force? Why do this to the market”? ANSWER: “They had no choice … faced with large volume selling, they aren’t going to step in and soak up institutional selling, so they simply back away. It’s one day … big whoop … trust me, they’ll be back.

I have more than a few trades to put into the PAMM spreadsheet, and since it’s late in the day and tomorrow is Friday, I’ll have it all updated for tomorrow’s blog post. Wow, what a day. Onward & Upward!

Time for the beach … I need a drink, the dog says ice cream & we are soooo outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

 -vegas


OUR TURNKEY FOREX  “PAMM/MAM”  IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

SOME TRUTHS ARE MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS

“Next to George Washington, the best President evaaaahhhh!”

Libtards, of course, cringe at the sound of Reagan’s name; why? Easy Peezee: Cuz he told the truth about big government and the destructive forces emanating from it. Libtards essentially have replaced religion with government, so when you question it and point out the graft, bribery, corruption, hypocrisy, influence peddling, double dealing low lifes who inhabit government and pretend to want to “help the poor” while lining their own pockets, you are in fact questioning the existence and purpose of those who hand out the “benefits” [a/k/a “the cash”], and that provokes a discernible reflexive and negative reaction from the faithful. However, whereas Christ is always with us no matter what, whatever government giveth, government can taketh away at their whim … Reagan hit this point “out of the park”.

It’s amazing what people will do, and the lengths they go to, to rationalize their behavior towards things. It really shouldn’t be all that surprising, cuz from the time we grow up, and go through the maze of corrupt cottage industries catering to our “growing up”, we get to see up close and personal just how hypocritical and corrupt damn near everything is. We get to see as kids, the rotten teachers, the evil school administrators, the feckless counselors, and before you know it you got the system figured out as to how best to manipulate it for your own benefit.

So, with this in mind, I’m LMAO reading the email I got from Turnkey yesterday about our 2 fills recently and the lengths they [brokerage house & LP] go to in justifying the robbery; it’s just another indication of the double dealing “life under the big tent” of government we’ve all come to know and love [not]. Cuz make no mistake, they get away with it cuz everybody in the food chain is feeding off of customer accounts. You seriously gonna sit there and tell me the regulators care, especially when they get tons of graft “under the table” from the industry? Back when the first of modern day institutional & retail, large scale hit job came in January 2015 with the Swiss Franc, I said at the time that if you wanted to know who was responsible and guilty of insider trading, simply check the Mercedes Benz dealerships in Zurich in the coming couple of weeks for blonde bimbos in their 20’s buying 380SL’s with cash, and you’d have your answer pretty damn fast. Of course, it’s all still a mystery to the regulators.

And so, what impressions do I walk away with when I’m told [apparently with straight faces and they’re serious] two incredibly logic riddled pieces of information; 1) “Our computer system checked our computer system and our computer system says your fills were 100% accurate and on the market, and 2) other brokerage houses that we checked with have the same fills at the same time, proving there was nothing “nefarious” on behalf of the LP”.

OK, my response to each: 1) “Oh, I didn’t know you had the HAL1000 computer system from “2001: A Space Odyssey” as your failsafe corporate “know it all”; maybe you should re-watch the movie and get back to me, and also, did you never hear of the phrase, “the fox guarding the hen house”?, and 2) the LP has hundreds of brokerage houses getting the same treatment; telling me there can’t be anything wrong cuz the LP gave the same quotes and fills to others at different brokerage house clients proves absolutely NOTHING AND SAYS NOTHING”! And, like government, this passes for critical analysis; meanwhile the head of the LP scumbag bank just financed his daughter’s fall ballet lessons. “Nothing to see here Sheeple … move along now … just a little hiccup in the system … we’re here to help you, remember”?

And last night, fresh from her gig in Londonistan somewhere, ChairSatan Yellen goes to great lengths to assure us all, another stock market stock indices crash will not happen again in our lifetimes; cuz, 1) “Everything Is F-ing Awesome Baby!” and don’t you forget it, and most importantly 2) cuz she says so. Well, I don’t know about you, but maybe you should lay in some fresh water and beef jerky in the basement on this “chutzpah” … Oh wait … I forgot … she’s from the government and she’s here to help. And of course … remember …  these are the same types of people who regulate the trading industry. I know I sure feel better. Over on ZH is another take on Grandma Yellen’s idiotic & delusional thoughts; seems I’m not the only one who thinks we are being led down the “primrose path” by a bunch of faculty lounge types who are clueless. The link directly below in case you missed it today … it’s a good read.


Turning to today’s trading … late sell off on the close took stock indices lower yesterday … however, as is so typical lately, better trading in the “wee hours” than anything we are likely to get once New York opens … c’mon, who doesn’t like manipulation when we’re all asleep? … no important economic releases today, so it’s shaping up as another “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] every rally is a “ramp up” on vapors kind of day; we’ll see, but rest assured, it’s highly probable today, the central banks put a lid on market declines and we will most likely see higher prices later … of course, I could be wrong about this. Here about 3 hours from the open, it looks like a slightly higher open come 9:30; early rallies are going to be sold.

As I said yesterday, “thieving LP’s got to be thieving”, and as I write in the early A.M., the Dow 30 is right on its high of the day, so of course the LP goes from a 2 point spread to 2 – 3 point spread; the purpose here is simple enough. They expand the spread to get an extra point to set off stops and pad their pockets … it’s who they are and it’s what they do … it’s got nothing to do with anything else, and when the market falls back from whatever range we have today, the spread goes back to 2. “I dunno, maybe the HAL1000 computer system can run a diagnostic and assure us all everything is completely 100% A-OK … no worries Dave … Dave? … Dave, you’re not worried are you”?

Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … welcome to the bullshit of the PPT, where you to can get short and get killed quickly when they stampede the market … oh, like they just did for 50 points straight up in the Dow30 in 2 minutes, the chart directly below.


And now, this presents somewhat of a problem this morning, cuz they just “burnt through” buying power that they would potentially want and need later from the “crash & burn” crowd … until later when they do it again … and then again.

Now comes the ‘talking heads” with the “official” central bank explanation of the sharp rise in the Dow30 … “ECB spokesman says Draghi’s comments misinterpreted” … oh, very nice … and did this spokesman just decide on his own to trot out and give his opinion, or were there others that saw what the Dow30, DAX30, & SP500 did yesterday and weren’t happy about it … and now, after some “arm twisting”, in order to change the theme for the trading day just before New York opens [I’m sure it’s just a coincidence], he comes out and “bombs” the markets … and of course, the PPT is at the ready to inflict as much pain as possible on shorts, as sure as the sun rises in the east, they knew beforehand what was coming and were prepared to act aggressively … Welcome to the new world order of central bank trading.

And, since it’s a new day, I’m sure our glorious and wonderful HAL1000 LP has filled all the buy stops set off by the PPT and filled them fairly … not that I want to know, cuz you already know every damn one of them is filled up at the high of about 21420 in seconds from much, much lower prices… cuz, you know, it’s where the market really is … our HAL1000 says so … Dave? … Dave, you’re not worried are you?

So, what comes after the forced North Korean confession from the ECB Apparatchik? … try nuttin’ honey … business as usual on Wall Street … cuz you know, these Apparatchik sycophants for the ECB, BOJ, SNB, & the FED of course, all work hand-in-hand for us … right? It has nothing to do with outright theft … OMG, only a tin foiled cynic would think that … “yup, and proud of it”!

Market opens, and of course, the institutional Chipmunks buy the day’s high for the umpteenth millionth time … same bat excrement, different day is all … the blatant and outright manipulation and crucifixion of shorts on full display … so, from an hour ago, the Dow30 is 80 higher and it’s “mission accomplished” … if you are confused by all this, it can only make sense if you subscribe to my premise of central bank manipulation.

Fun & games after the first hour or so, with the PPT having more fun than any quasi-government manipulator should possibly have the right to; already, and we’ve only been open an hour, I’m sure the HAL1000 computer running the show at the LP in the Dow30 is generating floods of happy emails, as these guys have discovered Christmas in June, and the machine is smoking hot from all the action. Already, the PPT manipulators have been in the market about 5 times punishing shorts out of nowhere with the message, in not so understated terms, “you will not be allowed to take the market lower … PERIOD”! Problem, though, is it’s all manipulative central bank buying, and once they’re done prices fall quickly back … market starts to drift lower and then … BOOM! … here they come again … so, am I [or anybody else for that matter] supposed to know they’re coming in half a dozen times in the first 90 minutes and blow both the Dow30 & SP500 to smithereens up the wall with no signals or any kind of market action that is predictive? And as I have said before, these asshats in government don’t understand markets or trader psychology, cuz if they did, what they have done today so far would be done in the LAST 90 minutes of trading, not the first [who knows, maybe they do it in a few hours but I doubt it]. The most powerful rallies always occur in the last 90 minutes of trading when the shorts get trapped with no time left.

In the process today, in 2 ½ hours the entire “the market is gonna crash bigtime!” meme is blown sky-high out of the water, and anybody buying into the theme today, and stayed at the “short party” a little too long, got literally crushed in seconds not once, but about 5 or 6 times in succession. “By all means, be short consistently and tell me how it works out”. And here in the late morning, cuz as we all know the LP’s do such a wonderful job of making “fair & unbiased” market quotes and fills, the Dow30 just hit a new high while at the same time the SP500 went lower … buy stops filled, market goes lower immediately, and thanks, come again soon! … “Dave … Dave? … We don’t have a problem do we Dave”?

I must admit, I didn’t see this coming in the A.M. today … thought there was a chance in the P.M. we could see something like this, but this … I can only imagine the complaints the HAL1000 is going to receive after today … government market manipulation on steroids. Over the last 24 hours, now that order books have gotten cleaned out on both sides … first the sell stop side, and now the buy stop side, I’m sure in central planner HQ the champagne corks will be popped this evening on a job well done. But, hang on … PPT #7 right here before Noon takes the Dow30 up to 21490 area on more buy stops … and we haven’t even gotten to the half way point of the day yet.

Early afternoon in NY, and the central banks are giving a lesson to the stock indices; “you will go down only when we want you to, not before … got it”? And those who refuse to learn the lesson get to go home with lighter wallets. Since the final PPT ramp up in the Dow30 at right before Noon, it’s been a nothing burger of sharp bursts up, then down … rinse … repeat … having fun yet? I’m thinkin’ at least half the traders on the street are suicidal from today’s action, it’s been that vicious and fast, and the upside action has gone much further than I think anybody imagined was possible today. Of course, when you got the PPT coming in every 45 minutes of the day jacking prices up on “vapors”, anything is not only possible but probable as well; with 2 P.M. only a few minutes away, who knows what they got planned for the last 2 hours. Since Noon, when the high in the Dow30 was made, the SP500 is up approximately 2.5 index points and the Dow30 is down 10 points … sure, talk to me about correlation.

The first 2 PPT explosions to the upside occurred before the market open; the second one was almost finished on the NY open, and it was after this correction to the downside that I made the days only trade; the algo got us long a hair early, which didn’t cause any problems, but the third move higher via the PPT saw the Dow30 rally only slightly, while the SP500 rallied 4 full index points. I can take a hint, and liquidated; and for a while it was a good idea, until the PPT came back in for rounds #4 - #7 during the next hour. And while we made money on the trade, and the algo called it, after that the market never did Mr. Jack Squat until expanding the day’s range up to 170 points. And if you think I’m getting long up anywhere near the high of 21493, you’re simply nuts … I do not buy rallies … the probability of expanding this range even higher is not good. If we can get some kind of real correction of 30 – 40+ points from the high and then a good reversal off of that correction low … sure, I’ll make the algo trade … but since I got out of my trade today, the market hasn’t corrected much more than about 15 points … not enough at these levels to justify the risk; so, a small profit today.

On another matter, the PAMM spreadsheet can’t be done today, not because I don’t have the Microsoft Excel via Office 365 working … I do; got it corrected last night and they hopefully fixed the bug permanently. No, the reason no PAMM spreadsheet today is our wonderful, fair, account loving LP via Turnkey has messed up the trade history for the master pool account on the MT4 trading platform. Since last night, I have no “trade history” from which to get trade prices nor times from June 20th forward; I’ve made Turnkey aware of the problem since early this morning, and was told “we’re working on it”. Maybe the HAL1000 ought to have a talking to, but I’m sure between days off, champagne corks popping, counting all the money, and filling out complaint forms for the LP cuz of bat guano fills, that they will eventually get around to it. So, PAMM spreadsheet is ready once I can get prices and exact times from the MT4 when they get it fixed. By the way, this MT4 “glitch” in “trade history” doesn’t affect the money balance or anything else traded related in the master pool account; everything is good there, it only affects “trade history”.

Near the close, and another frustrating trading day, not because the PPT came in 7 times, but the simple fact that once this freight train gets rolling up, it never corrects back … and no, 2 or 3 M1’s down 7 points is not a correction or break … about the time it does come back, we then get the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] coming into the mix and saying hello, and the propensity of the Dow30 these last months to go from high to low back to a high and then back to the middle is about 20X times higher than we have ever seen it historically … for that you can directly blame the central planners and the PPT for their manipulative efforts. Another very annoying factor today is the breakdown and lack of strong correlation between SP500 and the Dow30 … the vast majority of the time when I’m long the Dow30 and it goes up 5 points while the SP500 goes up 3 – 4 full index points, I know I’m in trouble and living on “borrowed time”. To then see me liquidate and the Dow30 start climbing rapidly while the SP500 then breaks a point … well, I’m left in “la la land” wondering what universe I just wandered in to and how do I get out of it? … cuz stay too late in a trade in this stuff, and the LP will burn your donkey with slippage like you can’t believe.

Whatever the situation, though, the version 4 volatility algorithm is “gold”. I’m not saying it’s “foolproof” or will never have a losing trade; only an idiot or fool would ever make such a claim. What I am saying, though, is that a series of trades taken during any given trading day will give us profits the vast majority of the time, and put us into an excellent probabilistic scenario to make money … obviously, some days are better than others, and we can’t control market behavior; whether it’s dead or bat guano crazy, it is what it is. Right now we are sitting at 50+ year lows in Dow30 intraday volatility based on percentage moves … as I’ve stated before, I don’t think this can last very much longer. So, we take what the market gives us and move forward; I’ll have more on the version 4 algo tomorrow. Onward & Upward!

Time for the beach … the dog says it’s DQ ice cream time first & we are soooo outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

 -vegas


OUR TURNKEY FOREX  “PAMM/MAM”  IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

YOU HAVE NO IDEA

“Kudos to the Mrs. for taking this pic of me yesterday afternoon!”

Whatever it was you had last night for dinner, you could have saved some bucks by letting the fire off the top of my head cook it well done for you; to say I was pissed yesterday at what transpired in the Dow30 via the Turnkey scumbag Dow30 LP, is a gross understatement. Walking the beach … playing with the dog … nothing worked. By the time I sat down for dinner, the wonderful words of the Mrs. were upon me; ‘just let it go honey … just let it go … there isn’t anything you can do … you know it happens in this biz … you know I’m right … everybody and their brother knows the LP banks are thieves and crooks; no news there … I know you’re upset cuz everything was right and it all turned out wrong … just let it go babe”! And, of course she is right.

I did have a good telephone conversation with management yesterday, not only about yesterday’s ripoff, scam fill, but also about the BS fill from 2 Friday’s ago, which the LP refuses to address with management at Turnkey, and I guess we are all supposed to just forget about. Quite frankly, it’s hard to tell over the phone whether or not they are sincere in recognizing we got royally raped; yes, they confirm the very bad execution, and calls and emails into the LP are not being returned, so I don’t really know whether they are just paying “lip service” to what happened, or are sincere in going to bat for us. Right now, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt, but I’m waiting [just like they are] to hear what the scumbag LP says in their own defense. I’m not naive, so I’m not sitting here expecting one iota of admission of anything wrong coming out of these dirtbags; all the while they steal from accounts, they will never admit anything … ever … no matter how egregious, they will lie right to your face … while taking the money … and tell you everything checks out and the fills were good. It’s all bat excrement, but I know what they are going to say before they say it. In the end, it will boil down to what Turnkey thinks and how they view the matter and whatever concessions they can get from the LP [without them admitting anything natch, cuz Hell would have to freeze over first]. So, we will see; I’ll let everybody know when I hear something, most likely end of the week sometime.

Last night, without any emotion I might add, I attempted to analyze the various “pros & cons” of either switching to the SP500 or simply staying with the Dow30 … after all is said and done, it still makes more sense to stick with the Dow30, despite what I think of the LP; with the SP500 LP raising the bid/offer spread to 0.4 index points, and keeping it there, it just doesn’t make economic sense to make the switch … it wasn’t the “market” that mauled us yesterday, it was the damn LP, and to be sure it can and will get equally nasty at some point in the SP500, so switching markets isn’t going to remedy anything all the while costing us more to trade … so, I’ll stick with the Dow30.

Here with over 3+ hours to go until the New York open, with the exception of the DAX30 [which is hyper-ventilating up/down while Super Mario speaks Vampire Squid BS and rattles everything European with “Hawkish Shock”], the Dow30 and the SP500 are relatively quiet … after yesterday’s overnight central bank vapors rally and subsequent “Thelma & Louise” very shortly after the open [blamed by the “talking heads” on Bitcoin moving sharply lower … yes, seriously], it was either going to be a downward slaughter or a relatively quiet night and quiet won; there was simply no appetite for more upside vapors. Looking at both stock indices, and especially taking a gander at the weekly candlestick charts, I am immediately struck with a couple of conclusions from both the Dow30 & the SP500; 1) weekly candlesticks that are so tiny in comparison to the past, they almost look like “smudges” instead of candlesticks, and 2) not if but when volatility picks up [like it appears it’s starting to do from 50+ year lows], both indices are “ripe” for a move to the downside in what could easily transpire into some very ugly market conditions, as everybody who has been on the “stock train” these last years since 2008, decides it’s time to sell and temporarily leave the game. If that happens, don’t look for the central banks to come to the rescue immediately; instead, look for the PPT to show up and punish intraday short sellers with “rip your face off rallies” … remember, the biggest gain days in the history of the stock market occur the vast majority of the time in so called “bear markets”. For sure, the central banks and the PPT aren’t going to make it a “slam dunk” for anybody to stay short and pick money up off the floor … that isn’t going to happen.

This presents us with both challenges and opportunity; we’re going to be getting a lot more “yesterdays” in the future, and at the same time trading conditions will worsen. The stop hunts will get worse, the slippage will get worse, and if you don’t “buy it right” they [the LP] will hang you out to dry; there simply is no way you can buy the rally and get away with it. You have to buy the breaks on the turn, and sell it on the way back up, and then not care what happens next. The “key” of course, is central bank behavior and raises 2 crucial questions; 1) will the BOJ & ECB join the FED and stop the asset buying to the tune of trillions per year, and 2) at what levels of intraday moves to the downside, either by way of “waterfalls” or simply steady moves down, is the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] going to show up and ramp prices higher quickly? You come anywhere even close to answering these questions and profit will be there for you in abundance.

Turning to today’s market … ChairSatan Yellen speaks at 1 P.M. eastern, at some chicken lunch event; oh fun oh joy … my head hurts from even thinking of her speaking she’s so full of it … of course, the usual gaggle of FED financial sycophants in the MSM will be there to worship … Steve Liesman, call the Mariner Eccles building for your secretly coded prearranged question. So, don’t know if the market stays quiet until then, or rips lower like yesterday first, or even higher … we’ll see.

Here, an hour into this mess, the Dow30 is right where it opened, with general “thieving” on both sides of the market from the LP bank, as it appears the market is in “hurry up & wait” mode for Grandma Yellen at 1 P.M. So far today, all the market is doing is separating money from trader accounts into the arms of the LP bank, with spikes up/down going nowhere as fast as they came.

Noon time in New York, market is dead waiting for Yellen speech somewhere … Scumbag LP’s couldn’t resist the buy stops above 21450, so they went after them to enrich themselves, and of course we go straight down from there, albeit not very far, but nonetheless it shows the BS shenanigans used to separate accounts from money and into their own. Also notice a new phenomenon; as the Dow30 approaches a high or a low, the LP widens the spread to 2 – 3 Dow 30 points. This is to give themselves one more point to set off stops on either end of the spectrum and of course screw customers, all the while their futures arm [who, by the way is a separate legal entity domiciled somewhere else where no questions are allowed to be asked by anyone, including clueless regulators, where of course the LP bank is the beneficial owner but it is shrouded in either trusts or a PIF (private interest foundation) to hide everything] are the ones who set the buy/sell futures stops off to begin the entire charade… and when the LP bank computer system sees that, the entire CFD complex worldwide gets their stops set off a nanosecond or two later, and delivered on a silver platter to guess who? … well, if you said the futures arm of the LP bank [not really legally, but in practice for sure] pretending to be some non-interested third party, then you win a cookie.  This is illegal in the U.S., and by pure dumb luck, former FX powerhouse FXCM got caught doing exactly this, and was subsequently barred from U.S biz and forced to close a few months back. No such rules in London or Europe.

In essence, this is how modern day financial networks work at the institutional level worldwide for trading … it’s a chain letter Ponzi scheme, where money flows from customers to banks, all the while they lie to your face and proclaim their objectivity … and for sure, don’t ever expect the regulators to do anything about it; they’re too busy pocketing part of the skim and aren’t going to upset that apple cart anytime soon. And while the stock indices aren’t anywhere near as corrupt as the FX universe [including gold & silver], where in the last 2 ½ years we’ve seen unprecedented FX moves out of nowhere. All for the express purpose of skimming the retail public trader. What it all boils down to is a hidden tax on trading by the LP banks; without the graft and corruption, they can’t meet profitability expectations, and the purest form of revenue is us.

Which brings me to the email I got from Turnkey very early this morning; well guess what? Seems the LP bank says they checked everything, and wouldn’t you know it … according to them, everything is fine! All systems check out and your fills were 100% totally legitimate and the system worked perfectly, and aren’t we simply fantastic … thank you, come again!

Now, no news here really, but the “chutzpah” of these lying assholes is amazing, cuz while assuring me that [like the FED] “Everything Is F-ing Awesome Baby!”, and touting their own “in-house” detective team to get to the bottom of these bogus bullshit fills, they somehow overlooked my questions to them; to wit, 1) did your bank or any subsidiary you own or have a beneficial interest in [limited partnership, LLC, C corp. trust or group of blind trusts, and/or PIF] offer the Dow30 futures lower at the 21411 – 21403 level to set off stops in the Dow30 futures yesterday, and 2) did your bank or any subsidiary you own or have a beneficial interest in take the other side of my trade for the PAMM? Well, knock me over with a feather, cuz they must have somehow forgotten my questions cuz they didn’t address them or answer them, but simply ignored them! See my shocked face!

Which, of course says volumes about these scumbags that we must do business with cuz we got no choice. And, I’ve been assured by Turnkey, that they in no way profited by our misfortune by somehow getting or receiving a “kickback” from the LP; something I have a very hard time believing, but life is too short so we move on. What’s the point of pressing them, nobody is going to part with a penny they stole from us?

The rest of their long email to me is embarrassing in its effort to try and show nobody was trying to “screw us”; more than likely the email is for regulator consumption at some future date if/when they ever get pressed about it. It certainly didn’t “fly” with me. But again, there isn’t anything we [I] can do but bitch, not in the hopes of ever seeing somebody say “whoops, we screwed up … sorry for the shit fill … here’s $X to compensate the account”, but in the hopes of bringing it to light, they maybe won’t go after us next time; I doubt it, but it’s our only avenue available to us from the robbery.

Early P.M., and Grandma is speaking in England somewhere; I tried listening to the live feed, but my eyes started bleeding from the bullshit, so I had to stop. I can’t listen to this tripe. Dow30 isn’t doing anything; a very tight range today, with multiple small trips up and down, with every point ± the open price of 21420 convincing you of either a new low or new high coming shortly, until the reversal back up/down, right back where it started. This is frustrating to say the least, but it is what it is, and we simply wait for some kind of move here.

Here in the mid-afternoon around 1:30-ish, welcome to the stop hunt, where once again you can see with your own eyes, the blatant filling of sell stops below the market by the LP, and more than likely a fill you aren’t going to like. And, in like fashion, after cleaning out the SP500 sell stops below 2434 … all the way down to 2426.9 … you too can watch the “Plunge Protection Team” come in and totally ram the market up anybody’s donkey who is short, and watch the fireworks cuz in 3 very long minutes [if you are short] the Dow30 blasts up 40 points, the SP500 6 index points… remember, this is a market that for approximately 17 hours can’t put in a 70 point range in the Dow30, but in 3 minutes can go up 40 points cuz the PPT comes in and literally “steamrolls” shorts. For some of you, now you know why, unless there is a specific news event or theme taking place in the market that is going to cause “uncertainty” going forward, I’m not interested in being short; whereas in years gone by the PPT used their power selectively, now we live and trade in a paradigm where they come in daily multiple times and wreck havoc … and if you’re short, they will force you to cover. This is why it is almost impossible to trade consistently from the short side and make money over time.

For the day, 2 winning algorithm trades that helps win back partial losses from the LP highway robbery yesterday. Really, literally nothing to do in the market except for some very small windows of opportunity; one earlier in the day and the other this afternoon after the debacle to the downside. I didn’t take the trades on the lows at the turnaround for one simple reason; with such a very small range up to late in the trading day combined with the time of day, I didn’t want to get “trapped” long in a falling market after 2 P.M., which could be ugly. If the range for the day hadn’t been in the 60’s, but was instead anywhere in the 120 – 140 point range as the market fell on sell stops, I would have been there. You have to keep in mind the potential for disaster and what your risk/reward ratio looks like going in, and with the potential for lower prices on a small range looming, it wasn’t prudent. I simply waited, bid my time, and “cherry picked” the PPT when they entered, and more importantly, liquidated slightly before they finished their ramps; the result, a hell of a lot better fills than I’ve been getting. If I had waited, they would have screwed me royally with slippage.

One last point for today; the version 4 volatility algorithm is a “stone cold” killer in pinpointing initiating buys in the Dow30, and if it hadn’t been for the LP thieves … well, you know the rest. I’ve started writing the manual, and it should be available for you here shortly over in the “Download Links” section of the website. In hindsight, my decision to stay with the Dow30 was a good one … the SP500 has its own problems, which I would have to deal with anyway, so what am I really gaining? [HINT: Nothing.]

When I called Microsoft last night, they scheduled me for tech support tonight, so by the end of trading tomorrow the PAMM spreadsheet should be updated and back up. Right near the close, and the SP500 has hit a new low for the day; Dow30 not yet. Hopefully some overnight downside vapors can appear and we can get a lower open tomorrow; if we do, it sets the stage for a potential good rally later. Onward & Upward.

Time for the beach … dog & I are soooo outta here … until tomorrow.


Have a great day everybody!

 -vegas


OUR TURNKEY FOREX  “PAMM/MAM”  IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Monday, June 26, 2017

I SENSE A DISTURBANCE IN THE FORCE

“I don’t always trade stock indices, but when I do …”

Ah yes, the Sunday night “vapors rally”; cuz nothin’ gets me in the mood to buy moar stocks than banks all over Europe failing from Friday; first Spain, now a bunch in Italy, but not to worry Sheeple, Super Mario from the ECB says all is fine and it’s been cleaned up … move along, nothing to see here. [Cuz, according to ZH, the reason stocks rallied on vapors was because of the bailout … yes, seriously. “If only all banks could fail, the Dow30 would be at 50,000”!] And so, all of Thursday, Friday, and most of last Wednesday ranges in the Dow30 from last week, are now all “engulfed” by central bank buying in the “wee hours” … meanwhile, over in our favorite pet yellow rock market, the manipulators took gold down almost $20 per Oz. in seconds, hitting of course retail sell stops and filling them on the low, with an approximate $2 billion notional value, approximately 18,000 futures contracts. “Yes, by all means, sit there and tell me it’s all a coincidence. We simply can’t have bank failures and gold going up & stocks going down, cuz Sheeple could get ideas. In this Libtard, upside down common sense world, ideas are the most dangerous element and must be crushed. You do realize, all animals are equal but some are more equal than others … right”?

Regardless, more and more of the largest “Muppet Slayers” in the world, to which I refer to JPM, Vampire Squid, BofAML, Citi, and a gaggle of large hedge funds who are becoming more vocal in the chorus of, “the stock party” is over … put a fork in it cuz it’s done. And, as I explained the other day, a growing list of notable financial types are chattering about the FED “engineering” and hastening the next financial crisis by raising rates for 2 big reasons; 1) they got “no bullets in the gun” to fight the next downturn, so doing some back of the envelope cipherin’, rates got to be higher so they can be cut … “I’m sorry, in order to get rid of that flu bug, we’re gonna have to give you malaria first … sure, it might kill you, but hey, it just might work too”!, and 2) the clueless Twits in the faculty lounge hate president Trump with a burning passion and figure the MSM will blame anything that goes wrong on him, and not on their idiotic policies.

So while the FED wants us to believe they are going to cut their “balance sheet” … you know, all those financial assets they’ve been buying since 2008 … over the next 10 years [snickers & giggles], and have even given analysts a timetable of buybacks every month, “so has my deadbeat cousin given the credit card company his “plan” to pay back his balance over the next 10 years cuz he gave them a “plan” don’tchaknow”? EXIT QUESTION: “What happens when they don’t stick to the plan, and will anybody even care”?

Sooner or later of course, the math eventually wins … please, don’t anybody tell Illinois … and the idiocy of the politicians & apparatchiks become noticeable to even the dumbest among us [which are Libtards of course]. And there are no bigger con artists than the FED, and the little whispers we are starting to hear now will grow in strength and intensity. The FED’s plan is too save the economy over 10 years … “go lie down and take 2 aspirin, we’ll be with you in 10 years”! … yes, good luck with that. But hey, “Everything Is F-ing Awesome Baby”! [EIFAB], cuz they’ve said so.

Here 3 hours + from the opening, the Dow30 is about 80 higher, drifting just a tad off it’s high for the day … the SP500 a case of the vapors as well … cuz everything just screams buy stocks. And while the Darth Vader types keep telling us, over and over again about how the market is going to crash, even now giving us dates in the future we can tune in to see it, business as usual is back in town, the central bank “buy vapors” firmly in control, and another week starts sharply higher, what the hell is new exactly?

90 minutes from the open, and of course the Dow30 is up about 100 points from Friday’s close … and I have no doubt, the entire day will be to “defend & protect” the overnight “vapors rally” at all costs, with 1) unlimited bids in key stocks of the index components, and 2) if necessary, another slam down of the pet yellow rock … the stage is most likely set for another crap day of tight ranges, low M1 volatility, and breathtaking boredom.

Ok, today has been nothing short of a disaster … pretty much anything/everything that can go wrong did … and again today, the scumbag Dow30 LP at Turnkey really hurt us; not only because of what they did, but also from the profit they made us miss. We were long from 21428, with a stop at 03, and while the market was 29 bid, in approximately a few seconds it went … and I’m not exaggerating one damn bit … from 29 bid; next bid is 16 bid; next bid is 11 bid; and finally, the next bid is 03 [which hit our stop], and the very next bid on my screen a millisecond later is 15 … to put it mildly, I’m sick and tired of these LP scumbags, and my conversation with Turnkey management on the telephone today made that very, very clear.

Here’s what I want people in the PAMM to do; if you can, please send Turnkey an email [be nice, no swearing, leave that for me], and let them know in no uncertain terms that you don’t like being screwed by the LP in the Dow30; either in slippage or stop fills when they decide to set off our stops on purpose. Please, giving them shit is the only thing they understand. Remember, though, it’s not Turnkey’s fault, they are only the brokerage house … they actually have some good people working there and they are trying their best to work on our behalf; it is the LP banks that are to blame and are nothing but thieving crooks. We simply have no access to the LP, and are forced to go through the brokerage house.

What angers me more than anything is that I did everything right, and when it took off from 28 to go higher, it went all the way into the 70’s before turning back … so, not only did they screw us with a loss [more than likely taking the trade for their own account], they screwed us by us not being long from 28. These people [LP’s] are frickin’ thieves and crooks, and should be in jail for robbery.

All in all, down about 1% today because of this, and it really pisses me off; I can take losses when I’m wrong, but losing money when I’m right frosts my cupcake, especially when I made the correct algorithm trades; taken together as a group, all the algo trades combined would have produced a nice profit today if it wasn’t for the thieving LP. I did what I was supposed to do, the algorithm did its job with the trades, and yet it wasn’t enough to overcome the LP, who simply robbed the PAMM like a thief robbing a 7-11 at gunpoint”.

 I don’t like getting screwed on stops that come out of nowhere [mystery ticks], slippage on fills, and last but not least, having the spread widen 50% to 3 points from 2; did I mention these people are pure scum? Add to that, everything from screen capture software to Microsoft Excel is down on my computer, and it’s been one of those days. I’ll get it back up and running, but in the meantime, I may switch PAMM trading over to the SP500, simply because these scumbags in the Dow30 refuse to make an honest market. Stay tuned, tomorrow’s trading will more than likely be in the SP500; slightly [maybe 1 Dow30 point] more expensive to trade, but a hell of a lot more honest than the fricking thieves they got in the Dow30, where quite frankly, I’m tired of getting screwed by these assholes … and yes Turnkey, if you’re reading this, your main LP in the Dow30 are assholes and crooks, and you can tell ‘em I said so. Question is, what the hell are you going to do about it? Most likely, nothing … did the SP500 go down 3 index points when you crucified my Dow30 stop? Hell no it didn’t, it was purely a dealer LP stop hunt in the Dow30, where the scumbag bank gets to “hit off” and screw their own customers … with more than likely they themselves taking the other side of the trade … did I mention I really dislike these people?

I’ll get the PAMM spreadsheet up, when I get Excel running properly again tonight or early tomorrow. I’ll be back at it tomorrow … look for some SP500 trades instead of Dow30; it trades exactly the same. We should have a “smoother” trading environment in the SP500, but the most important thing is it is a much deeper market with less corruption from the LP. I don’t think it is the same LP as the Dow30, from my conversations with Turnkey … I base that on my talks with them and the fact they are having problems almost exclusively with the Dow30 market, and not the DAX30, NDX100, or the SP500. Of course, we will see, but given the algo works equally well with the SP500, it can’t be any worse than the utter corruption from the Dow30 LP when it comes to execution of trades. It pisses me off we have to make back what shouldn’t have been taken from us to begin with, but that’s life in the pits sometimes; despite these crooks, it’s “Onward & Upward”.

Time for a stiff drink … I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos.

Have a great day everybody!

 

-vegas

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