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Showing posts with label correlation trades. Show all posts
Showing posts with label correlation trades. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

THE SHIFTING SANDS OF “RED LINES”

“Amazing! … you have a career as an investment analyst ahead of you!”

So, our head of security “Butch”, weighs in above, and discovers an ugly truth 
… “all the things you think you know cuz they come from those in authority, are 
nothing more than whimsical illusions attempting to influence behavior … like 
for instance, “talking heads” on financial MSM who talk their positions endlessly 
to get others to join the position so they can get out … shifting sands or pure 
bullshit”?

Everything is “certain” ‘till it isn’t … like EURCHF at 1.20 … like stocks have 
to go higher … like the FED knows what they’re doing … and finally, 
USDCNH is a lock to go through 7.0000 sometime soon. Gold? “Only 
Americans [collectively, not everybody] don’t care … everybody else in the world 
views it as money”.

So, it should come as no surprise to see investment analysts “poo poo” gold 
endlessly like it’s a religion … “analogous to Libtards and “global warming” 
… err wait, that didn’t work … make that “climate change”, cuz that way it 
covers all the bases for the clueless”. Gold only matters when it does … like if 
you live and have any wealth in Venezuela, Argentina, or Turkey. But, and this 
is  very big “but”, it’s predictable behavior due to collective fear & greed 
among the masses, makes it a great trading vehicle … “you wouldn’t know it 
this week, cuz markets are in an “Alice in Wonderland” environment, with ranges 
that redefine the word “tight”, but it’s only temporary”.

Turning to today’s gold market … “wait … what”?


Another low volume, low liquidity, bullshit day … “are all gold traders in 
Northern Florida? … it’s 2 PM EST., and this is about as bad as it gets, not 
that anything else but stocks getting “monkey hammered” is going on,, cuz all 
around the FX arena it’s “deadsville”. So far today, a paltry $6 daily range, 
and about a $4.50 New York [7AM onward] range … throw in the false 
breakouts and “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] on both sides of the ball, mixed 
in with panic spikes to catch traders off guard, and you get today. 

Directly below, the daily candlestick chart, and you can clearly see, the second 
 “doji” spindle day in a row … stuck in the middle of an 8 week range.

click to enlarge
“Seriously, can it get any worse than this”?

Two [2] algorithm trades today … PAMM up a few bucks.

Two [2] legit algo buy signals, the first is a “false positive” small loss … no big 
deal, but with intraday volatility very low and ranges so tight, it creates a 
bigger problem for statistical significance of profit than if both are higher 
… the second was long as gold powered [snicker, snicker] through its old high 
and made new highs for the day, and I liquidated on the spike … the high in 
XAUUSD was 1291.72, but I never saw anything on my screen higher than 57 
… a break of 40 got me to liquidate, and the fill was excellent at 37 … this is 
about as tough a trading as you’ll ever see, and if you don’t use the spikes to 
liquidate, you’re toast. It is what it is, though, and ya just move on … in this 
market we simply grind higher with profits!

Ok, it’s after 2 PM in New York, USDCNH not really doing much of anything 
to contribute to the “correlation trade”, and holding in a very tight [for it] 
range of approximately 250 PIPS … market here has moved slightly lower 
[Yuan/Reminbi higher], which powered the panic short covering in gold, but 
it’s nowhere near the days low … I’d be surprised to see a sustained move up 
in gold here in the late afternoon, but like I’ve said previously, it’s all about 
China and the Yuan/Reminbi at this point in gold trading, so any kind of  
“monkey hammering” of USDCNH lower will see spurts higher in XAUUSD 
and gold futures … any serious price appreciation in gold, and you’re gonna 
need to see the $1203 price level taken out on the upside, followed quickly by 
$1208 … anything less than that, and the bias is clearly to the downside on the 
charts … problem with being short this market, though, is that shorts 
ALWAYS panic first at the first sign of water overtaking the ship, and your 
buy stops get brutally filled and beaten to a pulp on the upside.

Some slippage today on the futures side of the “e micro gold futures” on C2 for 
our signals there … you’ll remember, US brokerage houses can’t offer spot 
gold, cuz STFU and trade futures. In any event, I’m sticking with it another 
day, and if tomorrow sees more slippage, then I’ll trade the regular gold 
futures front month after that … not gonna waste any time monkeying around 
if the prices aren’t right and in line with XAUUSD and the P/L generated in the 
PAMM. So, we’ll see what tomorrow brings and make a decision after that.

Gold extending a little bit here in the NY afternoon, but just marginally … the
range for the day now $7 [wait, I’m breathing heavily], and USDCNH not 
doing anything … shorts on the run into the Wall Street close it looks to me.

Given the fact that the entire day was bullshit, anything on the P/L to the 
upside is a bonus … and quite frankly taking trades after 2 PM is very risky on 
a “normal” day with range … the last 3 days has seen anything but that, as the 
financial world goes comatose over China, its currency, rising global bond 
yields, and falling equity prices [“wait! … aren’t they supposed to always go up? 
… No? … if only somebody had warned me”!]. So, onto tomorrow … until then
 mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM Spreadsheet directly below.

click to enlarge

UPDATE: “Well, that escalated quickly to the downside, didn’t it”? After 3 PM, 
and US stock indices are doing their best imitation of “Thelma & Louise”, and 
it has gotten ugly quickly … still, with the SP500 down over 80 index points 
from its high today, and gold is up about $1.50 from my last trade liquidation 
… rather pitiful response to a global meltdown of equities IMHO, although 
USDCNH has rallied, which I’m sure has traders extra cautious. “Oh, won’t 
tomorrow be interesting”?

Have a great day everybody!!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!



 





  


 


 

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

QUANTUM MECHANICS & TRADING … OOF!

“The parallels are truly scary, freaky stuff!”

Nobody truly understands Quantum Mechanics [QM] … does anybody truly 
understand trading financial markets? They both defy logic and common 
sense, and while one has crude approximations of what “moves” look like in a 
2-dimensional plane [trading], the other defies visualization and is purely 
explained by mathematics. Both rely on “probability wave functions”, and 
squirm & protest all you want, but that’s the way it is.

Which, brings us face to face with another bullshit August day, where at 00:30 
to 00:35 [server time] last night, thirty minutes into the new day in Asia, the 
“Chuckleheads” did their thing and blew EURUSD out in 5 minutes, thus 
buying the high like they always do … and of course, for the next 15 hours, 
EURUSD literally still cannot decide WTF to do but chop … “where in the 
probability tail risk curve is this”? Good grief, what a pile of shit … literally, 
figuratively, metaphysically, whatever … and like I said yesterday, the 
European session a complete fucking joke with zero movement anywhere 
… they’re literally useless.

Turning to today’s EURUSD market … “well, that escalated quickly didn’t it”? 
… of course once Europe is closed, cuz they don’t do shit anymore 
… apparently new all time highs in the SP500 means EURUSD rallies, cuz 
quantum mechanics … makes as much sense as anything else … remember 
Turkey? … neither does anybody else, except if you’re short and now is the 
time they all swear off “correlation trades” forever.

A shipload of trades today … PAMM down slightly more than $150.

Ain’t the EURUSD algorithm’s fault … it shined, I didn’t, cuz very simply I 
screwed up a buy order that I made a sell … why? … I asked the dog, and he 
doesn’t know either … I saw red, clicked red, and then said, “WTF did I do 
that for”? … was thinking long, was ready to buy, and then clicked sell 
… “Oy vey”, got no excuses except I’m a retarded kitten … covered it but it 
cost us about $120, but more importantly it cost us a long trade that more 
than likely would have been about a $300+ winner, maybe more cuz it came 
right off the bottom.

Late in the New York day, and EURUSD bid/offer via Turnkey’s vaunted LP’s 
is a total fucking joke … “you know, the guys who have deeeeeeep, sooooooooo 
deeeeeeep liquidity with Tier 1 banks, the largest and best in the world 
… yea right, I already emailed them and asked if this is a joke, or do you really 
have & use the worst fucking scumbag LP’s in the world”? Oh wait … I forgot 
… “duh, market conditions, duh”. And with Asia closed [fuck Europe], we got 
nobody but the scumbags at JPM, Vampire Squid, & Citibank to fill orders 
… some choice huh?… “if you trade, who would you like to be mugged by”? If 
it wasn’t so serious, it’d be funny as hell. Fortunately, I’ve been able to sidestep 
most of this, but one order got a fill ½ a PIP off the offer, but that’s about it.

So yea, the EURUSD algo is completely GOLDEN, and it’s going to be a 
stellar performer in the future … Cousin It put a ‘post it’ note on my screen
when I took a little boys room break … “Hey, buy means buy, not sell, OK? 
… Just helpin’ you out”. Good luck finding your combs, it’d be a shame if they 
disappeared.

Onto tomorrow, where we got FED minutes in the afternoon, but I don’t think 
it means anything. We’ll see if the “Chuckleheads” panic again tonight in Asia 
with another blowout to the upside … whenever the up move is over, you can 
count on Asia to buy the highs early before it goes lower, cuz it’s the classic 
fade signal they are famous for and repeat endlessly in every market.

I apologize for the screw up today … seriously, some days I wonder, but it’s 
part of the biz … more importantly, though, our EURUSD algorithm 
performed as well as you would want it to … that’s good news going forward. 
And with that, I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos 
… Onward & Upward!! PAMM Spreadsheet will be back soon.

Have a great day everybody!!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!