AS AUTHORITARIANISM RISES, MARKETS LOVE MANIPULATION

“When does the “Humpty Dumpty” FED begin to panic!?”

From just the last couple of months, just remember “Build the Taliban Back Better

Again”!, “No American left behind”!, “inflation is transitory”!, and who can forget

“the adults are now in charge”! … I could list plenty more, but my computer lacks

the necessary memory to finish the list … has “propaganda” from government at

every level ever been more prevalent than it is now? … have traditional financial

markets ever been more manipulated? … quite frankly, I see a disturbing

correlation here, that the “Little Joe Stalin’s” think you’re too stupid to notice.

Although crude oil is a traditional market, it’s way more of a physical

commodities market than a financial market … markets as far back as time itself

have always been subject to manipulation, but those groups doing it did it for

profit, unlike the group of Satanists running the FED and manipulating financial

markets for enriching the Elite class over the middle class … and they’ve been

doing it since 1913. 

Crude oil shares some of the things that make crypto the very best trading

markets going, but there are items that are worrisome as well, so while crude is

up there near the top in terms of volatility when it comes, like other markets there

is ZERO transparency in pricing, no accountability for shit fills off the market, and

no mechanism to judge slippage … you simply get the shit sandwich to eat, and

too bad if you don’t like it … sprinkle some more cinnamon on it is their preferred

solution.

What makes crypto the best markets going, specifically BTC, are things you can’t

get on the MT4 / MT5, or other proprietary platforms that emulate Metatrader, and

that goes for the entire list of markets offered … 1) an “open order book” platform,

where every order is seen by others, and where every order no matter how small

enjoys the same privileges as the big boys … in other words, complete

transparency … all you get on the MT4 / MT5 is an LP who wants you to think their

bid / offers are on the market, but where you really have no idea if that’s true or not,

and 99.99% of the time they aren’t fair or on the market … 2) limit orders that really

are limit orders and not the bullshit “Market If Touched” [MIT] orders EVERY

SINGLE LIMIT BECOMES ONCE TOUCHED … and that leads to some very ugly fills

in a fast market, where they win of course, and you lose … 3) markets [crypto

pairs] that trade 24/7/365 and never close … the market is always there and open,

so if you wanna trade on a Saturday night you have the option … 4) your order,

and your money IS THE MARKET … your options are different than simply having

to sell the scumbag LP bank bid, or buy the scumbag LP bank offer, and it’s this

option that scares the banks the most cuz they want ZERO competition and a

sole monopoly in terms of determining pricing … and last but certainly not least

5) bank bullshit and the FED’s CNTRL-P machine don’t mean shit in crypto, so the

scumbag banks are mainly ABSENT from the trade, and that means almost 100%

of the trading action is driven by spec order flows … and with millions upon

millions of “Noob’s” trading worldwide in every time zone, going FOMO on the

way up, and panic selling on the way down, about 100+ times a day, and thus

creating unheard of volatility in terms of ranges, this is as close to “trading

heaven” a professional trader like me is ever going to see!

And all of that and more, is present in crypto and generally totally absent from

the manipulated markets … just another reason why Government Apparatchiks

at the Lizard Lounge [a/k/a the FED] hate crypto … can’t control it, can’t

manipulate it, can’t effectively tax it, so I don’t care what they say it’s simply

propaganda, and more than anything puts the POWER OF MONEY in the hands

of the individual and takes it away from corrupt government … in other words,

“go piss up a rope fellas”!

Inflation numbers today at 8:30 AM EST, and then at 11:00 AM EST tomorrow

comes the crude oil inventory numbers, where for a few minutes crude goes

spastic like “Stonks” do for NFP numbers … this comes every Wednesday, but

Monday was Columbus Day, so it’s a day late this week, and it’s just something

you have to skip, unless you like playing “crude oil roulette” … tomorrow,

unless something can move crude in Europe, the trading day really starts

after the crude  inventories number.

Reversal, double reversal, & even triple reversal days are now commonplace

among the manipulated markets … not surprising really, cuz manipulators gotta

be manipulating to keep the narrative, and produce the “skim” necessary for the

POLS, Apparatchiks, & regulators … today’s excursion into bribery, corruption,

& graft comes from the ECB and the BOE, which today announced that they will

no longer have “secret” meetings with bankers … “well, isn’t that special”?

… right up there with water will no longer be wet cuz we say so! … it seems

there’s a call for a member of the ECB to resign over financial trades … hey, no

problem, the FED Lizards do it so what’s the big deal? … still wanna believe

things are on the “up & up”?

Crude today can’t get out of its own way, and not much happening except some

very small probes lower hunting for stops … now at the London Fix, crude almost

a full dollar under its 20 Day Range MA … some hours to go for the day, but the

M1 trading action is pathetic … nothing really poppin’ or droppin’, but instead

just sitting … quite frankly, longs feel tired up here, but that won’t mean much if

there’s news to pop it … this market needs a day or two of price declines to weed

out some froth, and if it doesn’t get it, you know what happens next at some point

… and then out of nowhere, from the bottom to the top straight up the fickin’ wall

… still can’t expand the range, and M1 trading action is terrible today … now into

the New York afternoon, there isn’t anything positive to say about crude today

from a trading perspective except disappointing … just not seeing any kind of

flow to the M1’s, cuz remember, we got a 3 cent spread to scale, so the M1’s need

to be moving, and for the last hour at least, this stuff can’t move 5 cents on the

bid side to save its life … not what I want to see moving into the afternoon trade

… if things hold where they’re at now, one of the worst range days since the dog

days of Summer … and as I write, in the blink of an eye, the buy stops get blown

out, and crude goes from 80.65 to over 81.00 … if I wanted shit like this, I’d stay

in gold! … and of course, once the stops are filled by whoever really wanted to

sell it, it’s right back down the rat hole to where it started “el mucho quicko”, just

a penny or two from 80.65 … third day in a row of this type of bullshit, where the

bottoms have been wicked “V” shaped moonshots, followed by nothing much,

followed by buy stops getting it stuck to them with ZERO mercy … all with

“Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] trading patterns that get specs to buy rallies

and sell breaks, cuz they’re looking for an expansion of the range, which doesn’t

come … as I said yesterday, it’s too early in the calendar for crude to be popping

to multi year highs … longs need to be flushed at a minimum … “well, there was

5 minutes of fun for those that got sucked in long on a supposed breakout!

… can you say “pump & dump”? … yes, oil companies and large hedge funds

in oil can read trading books and look at charts to”!

No trading today in the Turnkey PAMM. The trading action simply terrible.

I want to be clear here … I’m not looking for some big selloff in oil in order to get

long … I’m looking for time tested “patterns” that produce bottoms, before the

panic buying starts … and since we’re dealing with probabilities here, remember

that in the long run EVERYTHING HAPPENS, meaning there are gonna be bottoms

we don’t capture cuz we can’t model them … and “V” shaped bottoms that then

scream higher can’t be modeled effectively, and so we miss them … no big deal

cuz nothing is 100% … but when you see it 3 days in a row, it does have a

tendency to piss you off some … “well, welcome to trading Skippy”! … and with

today’s action, on the daily candlestick we got 2 “Dojis” at the high of a 7 year

timeframe … trust me, this is gonna set off some alarm bells among the

positioned longs, if tomorrow we see crude head lower … “Dojis” represent

indecision, and after big moves they very often show up right before the trend

changes … not prediction’, just sayin’.

Meanwhile over in crypto, another reversal day where the M1 RANGES for the

day in BTCUSD perpetual futures, are AVERAGING over $70+ when market action

is “slow”, and right around $130 when action is moving … read that again and

ask yourself why traders have abandoned traditional markets … imagine if you

will, EURUSD with M1 ranges of 10+ PIPS, and a daily range of 400 - 500 PIPS, with

low spread & cheap RT commissions … think you could make any money if that

stayed CONSISTENT? … of course, even the dopiest Noob doing a simple MA

crossover could make money cuz the market would be MOVING SOMEWHERE

AND WOULD BE FREE OF MANIPULATION BY GOVERNMENT! … sadly, that isn’t

the case by a very long & wide mile for most other markets … crude about the

best we can hope for, and as we’ve seen the last 3 days, sometimes it doesn’t

exactly cooperate either … “The Syndicate” today UP APPROXIMATELY 1.1% on

multiple BTCUSD trades … and it’s only gonna get better from here cuz I’m doing

larger volumes … “grinding each day to “millionairehood” for participants”!

… it’ll be one hell of a party when we get there in a few short years! [or sooner!]

A slow market with nothing going on, a classic setup for the infamous

“pump & dump” in crude, and now lower as price got faded quicker than a

“Taliban Joe” promise … “Let’s go Brandon”! … onto tomorrow.

… outta here … “the future looks so “crudely” bright, I need sunglasses”! 😎

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

 

WELCOME TO THE EURUSD “MEATGRINDER”

 

“The FX marriage metaphor!”

It looks like “Peter Pan” Kuroda did his best with traders in USDJPY today, first giving the shorts some pain, and then turning right around and contradicting himself and blistering longs… must be taking lessons from Super Mario, who as we all know, takes the center stage on Thursday. Yen traders got the Central Bank “meatgrinder” today … but make no mistake, the way things are lining up with EURUSD, in terms of a constricted range for the 7^th day in a row [about 50 PIPS from 1.22250 to 1.22750], look for Thursday to produce an FX “bloodbath” … it will matter not whether you are long or short, if you go into Super Mario’s presser with a position, you’re gonna get your stop filled … I’m looking for a total wipe out of the scumbag LP bank order books, as the “rape & pillage” of retail spec accounts goes full throttle retard.

How constrained have things been? Well, take a look at the daily candlestick below.

 

How many small “doji’s” in a row do we need before SHTF? … Tomorrow should see another one, but you never know; that’s why I never assume a “doji” day is in the works, cuz if it decides to break out cuz somebody is nervous, it could hurt you greatly … the day is still young, and you can never assume anything in this biz. And, as has been the case now for 7 continuous days of this crap, EURUSD fails at one of the “edges” of the “chopfest”, rallies back, and now the market drifts aimlessly … and every single trader now subject to the “whims & fancies” of the scumbag LP banks as they spike up, then down, and when it’s all over the M1 candlestick chart looks like spaghetti thrown up against a wall.

“Well, that escalated quickly, didn’t it”? And as I was saying earlier, you simply can’t assume very tight ranges will hold in front of big reports … not only some retail specs, but big money can panic as well, and once the “shitshow” stop hunt on the upside starts, the spikes come in droves … there’s just one problem. And that problem is, when it’s over the trapdoor opens and everybody hits the exit gate at the same time, and while not always “ugly”, it very often is … and if your long, you’re gone.

I decided very early today, right as EURUSD was opening before 08:00 server time, that if EURUSD broke to the upside, I refuse to get long … and the reason is simple. Where’s it gonna go once the buy stops get filled? Quite frankly, I don’t think it can go very far before Thursday’s ECB presser with Super Mario, and that leaves any long position extremely vulnerable to a very fast & vicious break. And what did we see today after the low was put in early? First it started with Cable & Yen, bled over to EURUSD, and once we got above 1.22800, the buy stops above 1.22950 are in play.

Newbie traders might then say, “well, if that’s the case, why not get long and sell the buy stops”? MY RESPONSE: “The last time we were up here, I did just that, and came within about 2/10ths of a second from getting my donkey handed to me … if I was literally a “blink of my eyes” later, my profit would have been a loss. It’s easy to look back in hindsight and see the high at 1.23060, and then say getting long on an upside break of 1.22900, for example, looking to take the 95 stops out, is a good trade … simply cuz you know in hindsight you got about 10 PIPS to go … in real time, there’s no reason a stop can’t get taken out, it trades at 99, and a millisecond later it’s at 85 … I’ve seen that kind of scenario many times. So, while I can’t say where the stops end, I know what happens when they do … elevator down, and I don’t want to get caught in that kind of scenario where reward/risk stinks to high heaven”.

I’m not all that surprised one of the boundaries of the last 7 days got taken out … what surprises me is the total lack of downside action via long liquidation. Today was the first day in 7, that EURUSD opened and started to go lower in sympathy with GBPUSD; however, Cable’s low came many minutes after EURUSD was at its low of around 1.22230. And while Cable put in a good candlestick M1 “hammer” off the low, the low of the day for EURUSD was decidedly nondescript … nothing special about it at all. What’s all the more amazing to me, is that since the Apple repatriation “gift” to the scumbag LP banks via the FED, there hasn’t been anything even remotely close to the 1.22000 price level … if anything, traders can comprehend some long liquidation ahead of the ECB meeting & presser due to the scope of the rally we’ve seen since New Year’s Day, but the upside? That’s why I say, taking nothing for granted.

Quite frankly, unless Super Mario & his band of clueless E.U. twits want to see EURUSD going to the 1.26 – 1.28 handles, he better give the most dovish speech & presser of his life Thursday morning starting at 8:30 A.M. EST, outlining no plans for rate hikes anytime soon, nor plans to scale back QE … if he doesn’t, and the market comes to the conclusion that all he’s doing is “jawboning” EURUSD lower, EURUSD will melt up. Anything “wishy-washy”, and he’s gonna get it shoved where the sun never shines.

Turning to today’s trading, I came in looking for EURUSD to go lower with Cable down … hopefully … into the low teens of 1.22. From that low, depending on how it bounces off the low, either hanging on with profits or letting it go if it looks and feels weak. If it breaks1.22000, I’ll be looking for the classic quick bottom … well, I got neither.

One trade today, basically a pennies profit scratch … I was up in the trade and it came back … for about 45 seconds it looked like a great decision, cuz it went about 3 – 4 PIPS lower from my original long position … and then it just took off to the upside and left no prisoners. Even then, though, I thought there was a decent chance we could still see it go lower … from the 50’s on, though, forget it, now it’s a race to the top as Cable reverses and starts to scream higher.

If not for the ECB coming up, there’s no question I would have been long and hung on for a while, cuz we got the early drop followed by a move through the 50% retracement level, and then to a new high … a classic reversal that happens very often … but until Super Mario pontificates, where’s it gonna go, cuz you know Super Mario is gonna cause a tsunami in EURUSD? As I said yesterday, and Yen traders found out today, we’re all hostages to the Central Banks … no market is immune. And now here in the NY afternoon, EURUSD is a few PIPS above that 1.2225 – 1.22750 range we’ve been in for 7 days, and is trading around 1.22800, after filling buy stops above 1.22950 to 1.23060, and then quickly falling off.

This constricted range has been frustrating, but volatility will most definitely pick up once the ECB meeting & presser are out of the way. Despite what Super Mario might say to try and tame EURUSD, the market feels like it wants to go much higher. A “mush” presser, and it will get there a whole helluva lot quicker than anybody thought a month ago. We’ll see what tomorrow brings … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.

 

 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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