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Monday, July 31, 2017

MR. MARKET, PROVE MY CONTRADICTIONS WRONG!!

“I desire the proof of the negative that can’t happen!”

The Version 4 Algorithm “Quick Guide” is out and available, and while very brief and concise, there are 2 important criteria I want to bring up; 1) the reason it works and is powerful, is that it pinpoints the end of the corrective phase inside a contra short term trend, and 2) it first waits for the “trend followers” and moving average folks to “puke” and liquidate, and then on the turn makes the call for a position; it simply uses the M1 against all those using it for trend and “fades it” at the turn. So, in essence, the algorithm waits for and wants the Moving Average [MA] folks using the M1 for signals to liquidate on a trend change that is 1) the least effective of all time frames and highly unreliable, and 2) takes the appropriate opposite position.

As I have written before, there are “non-computable” problems in trading that computers can’t solve; so, if for example, I tried to “code” this Version 4 algorithm into an EA [Expert Advisor], how do you define “at the turn”? Exactly what is it? An engulfing pattern, a reversal, simply a color change, what? And here is where the problems mount exponentially, cuz if you don’t “act” in a literal second, the trade more than likely will be gone … there is “zero” time for you to analyze the setup and make a decision … which of course can lead to paralysis and that’s not good either.

Now, we all know that there is absolutely nothing in the trading financial realm that is 100% guaranteed; always have and always will be dealing in “probability waves”. Over time, everything will happen, you just have to wait long enough to see it. Having said that, in the “Quick Guide” I mentioned the algorithm’s limitations, one of which is that when the M5 changes trend, and goes from one side of the “Kumo Cloud” to the other, the position has a much higher probability of loss than at other times. But, inside the short-term trend, it gives some great turning points … some give the signals from the Version 3.2 algorithm, but whether they are present or not, if the M5 doesn’t change trend, the M1 signal trade will be a good one from a profit perspective.

What I’ve done, essentially, is turn the market on its donkey and ask it to prove me wrong; I’m not asking for a continuation of a “breakout” trend on the M1 “Kumo Cloud”, or try and follow any breakout of the traditional MA’s (2) that come with the indicator on the MT4, that says to the market, “can you please continue a little further so I can profit”? With probabilities greater than a casino in Las Vegas enjoys, I know what the answer is … to ask the question is to answer it!

It all starts with, “tell me what you can’t do with ease? … what’s hard for you Mr. Market? … what and where is the highest probability event inside a short-term trend to make a trade and profit? … and what is it approximately”? And the answer is,  all of the “fake out” breakouts on the Ichimoku MA’s, the “Kumo Cloud”, and by default the other indicators that follow right along and get people to make the wrong trade [e.g., MACD, RSI, etc.], cuz what’s happening in real time is that the “big money” has the time, money, and computer capability to know with certainty what the top 500 trading systems are doing in real time, and the software “know how” to exploit traders without the trader ever knowing he/she is being exploited by a large hedge fund or bank. [“What, you expected them to tell you first”?]

And as we find ourselves [without anybody’s permission of course] in the “Central Bank Paradigm” of trading now, the first question every trader should be asking themselves is, “why has trading changed and what can I do about it”? … but instead ask, “things have changed but I don’t know why … should I be worried about it, or just trust the market? So, the Version 4 algorithm started out in its genesis, not with “help me with better trend following signals Mr. Market”, but with “show me … Mr. Market … what’s the most difficult thing for you to do to NOT screw people, the least amount of the time”. Cuz when I know that, or have a good idea of what it is, I can do the “OPPOSITE” and achieve consistent success and profit.

And really, that’s what lies at the philosophical heart of the Version 4 Algorithm and how it is different than previous versions. Once I realized I didn’t have to “reinvent the wheel”, and that the math was available inside the “Ichimoku Kinko Hyo” indicator on the MT4, and that I could pick apart what I wanted and discard the rest, things fell into place rather quickly.

Turning to today’s market … “vapors” anyone? … seriously, I’m getting more than a little annoyed with the Dow30 showing every single damn day that basically, about 99% of every rally happens away from New York, when the market is easily manipulated when everybody is asleep. Then, New York is a simple “protect & defend” the manipulations higher, but no more … the action is disgusting, the volumes pitiful, and the ranges along with volatility [VIX] the worst in 50+ years.

The DAX30, on the other hand, exhibiting what a semi-free stock index market looks like when allowed to go up and down. Not the best of days, as the market has put in a solid reversal to the downside, inside a somewhat small range… going in and out of the M5 “Kumo Cloud” twice with a short term trend change. A little unusual, as reversals of this magnitude are somewhat rare in stock indices [approximately 3% - 5% probability on any given day], but certainly not a “one off” like a “double reversal” which are extremely rare and happen once every 5 – 10 years.

In total, I made 3 DAX30 trades today for the PAMM [yes, the Excel spreadsheet is working now], 2 from the long side and 1 from the short side; on the second long trade, the market trapped us with a “twofer”; 1) price on the M5 went into the “Kumo cloud” thus going from bullish to neutral, and 2) price slowly drifting away from my entry point on the M1 … in sum, took a small loss and moved on. The other long trade and the short sale played out very well, so it’s a profitable day … not as much as I’d like, but the fact is the cash market in the DAX30 opened today and went straight up … after its high, its straight down to new lows … even the M1 spent an enormous amount of time over, and then under, its “Kumo Cloud”, and therefore there were only a few signals generated before the cash close at 11:30; smaller than most days to be sure.

The Dow30? … I’ve run out of adjectives to describe the trading action … it’s simply “nonexistent”, and it’s pointless to mention what’s going on, cuz nothing is going on that is worth repeating in front of children … leaving it alone until something / anything happens that can get an M1 > than 3 – 5 points! … I’m not sure there aren’t 15 minute intervals where you can’t even get outside the 2 point spread … and the SP500? … worse than the Dow30, and to be totally honest, I don’t know how anybody can be expected to trade this puppy it’s so sickly. Two great markets placed into utter obscurity by central bank manipulators hellbent on using the stock market as a social policy tool … the utter hubris and pomp they place on themselves, that history may show them soon what total fools they really are in retrospect.

Well, here we are about 30 minutes from the close in New York, and it has been truly one of those days in the Dow30 & SP500 you can forget and file under “waste of time”. I don’t know how much worse the price action can get … it’s simply unbelievable how pitiful conditions have become, especially when you realize that outside of less than a handful of days, since April which is 4 months, practically every day the Dow30 is higher comes from overnight “vapors” … New York is a disaster, pretty much a nothing burger with more movement in the DAX30 when it is closed, than the Dow30 when it’s open. But, here we are, and this historically low VIX [50 + year lows, and an all-time record low the other day at 8.63; something the market has never seen … ever.] has people lulled to sleep with complacency and risk, so over loaded on the hype the FED “has their back” … “hi, I’m from the government and I’m here to help”! Onward & Upward!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


 “Hey, who put my ice cream dish in here? … I wasn’t done yet!”


Time for the beach! … “the ice cream King” and I are outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas


OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Sunday, July 30, 2017

SPECIAL SUNDAY UPDATE; DAX30 WEEKLY DATA & VER 4 ALGO

“Some fall off from last week’s surge up in daily ranges.”

Quite a fall off from the weekly ranges we saw last week, and as you can see from the data, the estimated daily range for this week, both on an “average” and as a “median” have fallen some … it’s summer, I wouldn’t expect the values to stay up where they were. Directly below, the data in table form for the year.



In addition, over in the right hand column of the website, under “Download Links”, is the “Quick Start” guide to the Version 4 Volatility Algorithm. View it online and/or download to your PC, tablet, or phone, it’s your choice. The file is in PDF, and of course it is free for everyone; the file is in my shared files box at box.com. [And if you play chess, browse my “Super Duper” chess library as well … 164 chess books in PDF (some very hard to get) for your enlightenment!]

I’ve got an appointment tonight with Microsoft Excel tech support to get the Excel files working again … PAMM spreadsheet should be up by tomorrow’s close totally updated and current. Other than that, enjoy the “Quick Guide” and email if you have any questions and/or comments. Once you see the version 4 work, you’ll see it’s a killer algorithm for profit.

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”! 

Friday, July 28, 2017

TGIF: SUMMER EDITION

“Yea, I’m with her!”

No health care reform; yawn. No tax reform; yawn. Problems in Russia, Pakistan, India, North Korea, & China; yawn. Amazon miss on earnings & guidance forward last night; yawn. So, how come stock indices aren’t about 2% lower on the day on all of this, and instead the Dow30 is sitting right up near all-time record highs above 21800? I don’t know, you’re asking the wrong person, cuz none of it makes any sense to me or any of the other thousands of trading professionals around the world, However, the difference between me and them? Well, I’m not dumb enough to sell it and hope like they do that it goes down, cuz I let the market tell me what to do, not my preconceived notions of what I think is gonna happen and why. But still, this is amazing to me, even with the manipulation behind the Dow30 and the SP500.

First the night before with everything going down, then early today a water main breaks in the house [honey, can you fix it now?], then after that, I get the classic “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] in the DAX30, with trading conditions in that market an absolute nightmare, right out of the starting gate; nothing but vicious spikes up and down taking it to new highs twice and new lows three times during the day at the “speed of light”, an LP that can’t decide which spread to use since it went between 0.6 and 4.6 multiple times, and finally the Dow30 which is so pathetic today, I’ve run out of things to say about it. TGIF!

Short blog today, cuz I’m tired, grumpy, and have spent to many hours watching pure bullshit fly by my screen; don’t forget Sunday I’ll have the “Quick Start” version 4 algorithm posted for viewing and/or download. Oh, and now, just to make things perfect, Microsoft Excel has decided not to work … I’ll have the PAMM spreadsheet up over the weekend … as for today, with the classic FWD showing up in the DAX30, I’m lucky to have lost only about $130 … it could have been far worse given the action, which was simply schizophrenic in nature; and as I have said many times before, it is the FWD that you must survive and not lose much. Many times, these turn out to be some of the greatest trading days a trader will ever have, even if he/she loses money. On the surface, it doesn’t make any sense, but it’s all about risk/reward, and reading the market when you are wrong and getting out with tiny losses. The FWD has a way of creating large losses multiple times, as many professional traders would tell you if you could talk to them.

Little less than an hour to the close, and the stupidity continues unabated; at some point here soon, this stuff is gonna get obliterated, and the FED has only itself to blame. But, just a quick comment before the weekend; the Dow30 & SP500 together, I have never in my trading career seen trading action this bad for this long; the ranges in New York border on “Christmas Eve” conditions for way too long. Everything comes via the “vapors” during the wee hours on the upside, and then New York is a frickin’ joke; no buying, no selling, just “protect & defend” what they stole during the night via the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT]. Today, the Dow30 has been open 5 hours and the range extremes are about 25 points at the widest, with most of that 5 hours ± about 7 points from 21805. Throw in the scumbag LP, who is looking to add slippage to anything you do, and it’s almost “mission impossible” to be up money on anything; long or short makes no difference! And, in the SP500, conditions are worse. Really bad folks, really bad; if only the manipulators would go away. But, the weekend beckons, and Monday is a new week. Onward & Upward!


Time for the beach! … “the ice cream King” and I are outta here … until Sunday sometime.

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Thursday, July 27, 2017

PROTECT & DEFEND THE LIES

“Even the nothing burgers are lying!”

An interesting last 24 hours, as here in “island paradise”, last evening around 9:30 P.M. everything went down and has just recently [a short 15 hours later in early afternoon] come back up … and I mean everything; phone, internet, electricity, you name it, and it went “buh bye”.  I have no idea what happened, as there weren’t any bad storms or anything like that, but first internet went down, then the phone system, then the electricity, all within about 5 minutes time. Even my back up internet went down when the phone system went down. Finally about 1:30 this afternoon in New York trading, things returned to normal. So, the DAX30 day got shot before it even started, from a trading standpoint, and I didn’t trade it today obviously. The algorithm version 4 needs the windows MT4 to run at full strength, and all I had was my mobile phone app when the phone system came back on, which gives access to quotes and order tickets, but practically nothing else; it’s good for emergency liquidations if necessary, but that’s about it, as I wouldn’t use it to trade other than that.

We are witnessing 2 big “LIES” in the marketplace at this moment in history; 1) markets aren’t manipulated, and 2) corporate earnings are wonderful. The first needs no comment, simply because so many observers have shown proof of the manipulation, including me, and secondly corporate Amerika is sick, and not at all as healthy as the CNBC cheerleaders would have you believe.

What sense does it make for a company to improve things, when all they have to do is take [or borrow] cash earnings and buy back corporate stock? Revenues and sales go lower, but earnings per share go up cuz the company stock goes from 100 million shares outstanding to 50 million shares outstanding, and the EPS almost doubles setting off panic buying on Wall Street; meanwhile everything sucks in the company, but it doesn’t matter to the directors simply cuz their stock options go way up making them filthy rich. So, whom are the only “net” buyers of stock over the last 2 years? According to BofAML, it’s only been corporate stock buy backs and central banks … that’s it … everybody else have been net sellers of equities. “So yea, tell me again how wonderful McDonald’s is”.

Here again today in the U.S. markets, from what I’ve seen since things are back to normal, it’s “protect & defend” the “wee hours” manipulations; nothing moves during U.S. hours, as prices that were manipulated higher earlier, simply need to be propped up and defended. As I’ve said before, why spend the energy and money to manipulate it higher when you can do it when everybody is asleep or going to their trading desks?

Gee, I get everything back to normal here in command central [internet & phone], and didn’t that escalate quickly on the down side? About time the SP500 got “monkey hammered”; this is what manipulation brings when the manipulators back away from their bids, and the FED has nobody to blame but themselves.  Talking heads are blaming JPM for the drop, specifically their head “Quant” guy.

Down near the low, the quote and order box feeds on the MT4 have gone out and are “dark”; is this the trading day from hell or what? I was thinking of buying the Dow30, and as I’m watching, while the rest of the trading platform is Ok and working fine for everything else, I got “nada” in the Dow30. Market is 20 higher when the feed comes back on 17 minutes later, and I can’t tell if the LP shut the feed off cuz they didn’t want to sell, or if there was an internet problem from the MT4 platform. In any event, I can take a hint from the trading Gods, so I’m doing nothing today trade wise. It’s late afternoon, the market is going down, and I’ve been hit with the kitchen sink in regards access to trading, and besides that, the market is sooooo overdue for a corrective break [especially the SP500], that even if it was a normal day, I’m not sure how strong any of these bounce back rallies can be; one of these days, the break after 2:30 is going to be a killer. Notice, you didn’t get this break in the A.M., cuz if you did it would be bought like crazy; no, it happens in the P.M., and now that means it’s a different story indeed. In any event, tomorrow is another day.

I’ll have more tomorrow, as today has become a “lost day” for me. I followed some of the DAX30 action from my phone very early this morning, so I could see the quotes going by, but I’m going to spend some time tonight before I retire to analyze the day. Tomorrow looks very interesting, and has the potential to be a volatile day … we’ll see … but the daily candlestick in the SP500 from today is going to be a bearish engulfing pattern up at all-time highs, with the action taking out the last 7 days on the downside. “Hey, who’s up for staying long the SP500 over the weekend? … What could possibly go wrong”?

Here near the close, the market has rallied back strongly, and correlations continue to be messed up with the SP500; just a reminder, it was only a couple of days ago when the Dow30 dropped 110 points while the SP500 went down 3.5 index points. Here this afternoon, the SP500 breaks approximately 23 full index points and the Dow30 goes down about 80 points; and, just to show you how messed up things can get on messed up days, the Dow30 is now only about 20 points off its high for the day, while the SP500 is a full 13 index points away from its high. “Sure, explain to me again how correlated things are”.  And, like most days recently, to add insult to injury, the DAX30 CLOSED, is more volatile than the Dow30 OPEN. Seriously, some days I wonder what universe I wandered into to trade? I’ve never seen markets this screwed up, which in the final analysis, is exactly what the manipulators want and desire.

At the close, new highs for the day in the Dow30; thank you "Plunge Protection Team" … things have gone full retard in stocks, and the bubble top just keeps going. Oh,, won’t tomorrow be fun! Onward & Upward!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Time for the beach! … “the ice cream King” and I are outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

DISSECTING THE STOCK INDICES

“Boerse Frankfurt: Home of the DAX30.”

Over the course of my trading career, which spans more years than I want to admit, it’s only been until very recently [like this year!] that the stock indices have been able to be traded inside a PAMM [managed money module for you Newbies] using CFD’s, at excellent “net” trading costs with terms and conditions that actually favor the client. There have been other places and other times over the last 3 years that have tried to host stock indices, but they were fraught with some very disadvantageous structures and terms for trading.

Managed money software is expensive, and neither the brokerage houses and/or the LP’s are going to be the ones paying for it; nope, it’s the customers, and add to that structure all the people in the software companies who created it standing in line and wanting their piece of “your pie” as well, getting a piece of the commission structure and/or spread on every trade as a continuing royalty … yea, welcome to the wonderful world of finance, where the vast majority of brokerage houses et al view you as “muppet money”; i.e., to be taken advantage of and bilked as often as possible without getting indicted.

For years … and yes, I mean for years, from about 2005 – to the start of this year, I have been screaming at the top of my lungs, meeting with management types, and pleading with LP banks to get up off their collective asses and offer stock indices for trading that make sense for the investing public. And for years, I’d get blank stares followed by, “sure, we’ll look into it and get back with you”. [Yea sure, and Santa Claus is gonna visit too, right?] Back in the fall of 2014, it looked like ASSETS FX [Finland] was going to do what I had desired for a long time, but only after about 5-10 days of trading, the LP bank [Finsa] pulled the entire program for reasons nobody would ever divulge. Then came TRADERS WAY, and in the first week of trading they were marginally Ok … not great; at that time there wasn’t anybody that was “great” … but it only took days for the LP to double the spread, raise commissions, and start handing out outrageous slippage on fills that made the entire effort a non-starter.

So, why does any of this matter when there is FX, oil, gold, and some other markets to trade? SHORT ANSWER: Cuz starting in 2015 with the “Swiss Debacle” they all went into the “untradeable” category and are nothing like the markets they were prior to 2015. Anybody that trades any of that stuff currently has my sympathies; all of it is manipulated beyond belief with the simple objective of transferring wealth from customers to banks, in any way and amount you want to give it to them. And the “proof” is simple; just recently ZH had an article regarding the state of Commodity Pools and hedge funds. Both are facing terrible markets and trading conditions that are seeing their collective worst results since 1987, the year of the great crash. Why? Simple; “speed of light trading … crickets”; and there isn’t any way to recover from the spikes up/down that go 3 – 6 sigma and chew these guys new ones … rinse & repeat endlessly, and you got a nightmare on your hands.

Which brings me back to the stock indices; currently, trading conditions in the DAX30 have never, ever been better. Trading at Turnkey gives us a “net” trading cost of 0.62 index points, and intraday volatility right now is at its highest level of 2017. Simply put, a market that trades like the Dow30 used to trade before it and the SP500 became the poster boys for central bank manipulation starting in February 2016. And the amazing thing is, the index is priced at 60% of the Dow30, has a spread 300%+ LOWER than the Dow30, and most importantly has far bigger ranges than the Dow30. Liquidity is excellent, with the futures market in the DAX30 trading well in excess of 100,000 contracts a day; and, there is very little manipulation of the DAX30 by the ECB, which means it goes up and down, unlike the bullshit that goes on daily in the U.S. indices with propped up prices 24/5, and the vast majority of the gains coming on “vapors” when nobody is around. Open the idiot markets up, and you got butkus!

There are 2 conditions present in stock indices, not found in other markets that are very important, and are key in why I have always gravitated towards them for my trading; first in futures, now in CFD’s, simply because the CFD’s offer better flexibility in terms of managing your risk profile than futures ever have. The first is that, over the long term [many years and decades] stock indices go up about 80% of the time and go sideways to down about 20% of the time, and secondly, once past a certain range for the day, stock indices rarely put in reversals, very rarely put in double reversals, and while I won’t say there simply aren’t any, I can’t remember in my entire career of any triple reversals in price in the major indices. These two factors are “Yuge & Bigly”, and I have always used them to my advantage; you simply cannot find these two factors in any other group of markets.

Long time readers/clients know I used to trade the DAX30 almost exclusively before the offshore brokerage houses “got in the game” and started to offer CFD’s in the U.S. indices that were reasonable; up until just a short year or two ago, it was not unusual to see offshore brokerage houses quoting 6 – 8 index point spreads in the Dow30, and just as ridiculous 1 – 2 index point spreads in the SP500; anybody that finds this acceptable is nuts. But the DAX30 has been around on offshore electronic trading platforms since the beginning around 2003 – 2005; most often quoted around a 2-3 index point spread and maybe a commission or maybe “net”. Not the best, but not the worst either, and when it moved the spread wasn’t an issue.

However, and this is important … today the DAX30 futures trade on EUREX, and a 1 lot = 25 * the index, and the minimum tick change for price is ± 0.5 index points. If you trade the futures, obviously whoever you trade through is going to charge you a commission … usually futures commissions are now charged based on volume at the largest and best futures houses, and if you’re trading 1-5 lots and doing a couple of trades a day, you’re probably going to fall into the camp of traders under 5,000 lots per month … and that usually means a round turn [RT] commission of about $3-$4 per 1 lot … Ok, so it adds marginally no more than 0.01 index points to your cost … well, at Turnkey traders enjoy a solid 0.6 index point spread [except when news or important economic releases are due, and the spread may widen to about 1.6 – 1.8] with about a 0.02 index point RT commission. Now, you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to observe that our trading conditions are only fractionally higher than the futures market … somewhere in the 0.11 - 0.12 index point area, in a market that for this week the average 20 day MA [moving average] for ranges is right around 145 points! And, to top it all off, the PAMM gets the same cost structure with no added costs, no matter how many clients I have, as any individual account trading for themselves. How does it get any better than this considering the brokerage house and the LP banks must make money, and aren’t in the business of giving things away? SHORT ANSWER: “It doesn’t, won’t, and can’t GET BETTER THAN THIS”!

Since I switched over to the version 4 volatility algorithm, I have been involved in more statistical research and work than you know in the DAX30, going back and redesigning prior DAX30 algorithm code and signals, and adapting them to the new paradigm of “central bank trading”. Remember, the DAX30 is not nearly as manipulated as the U.S. indices; sure, take it down 500 points and see what happens next, but outside that, the ECB doesn’t mess around with the DAX30 stocks, it lets them trade [“gee, what a novel concept”.] That doesn’t mean there haven’t been changes, though, cuz there surely has been, the most notable being the number of large spikes during any given day; now much higher than before February 2016.

To broaden your scope and knowledge, here are the important components of the DAX30; 7 stocks make up approximately 60% of its price movement. I’ve listed them in order of name of company, percentage share of the DAX30 index, and the industry group they are in: SIEMENS/ 10.46% / INDUSTRIAL ELECTRONICS;  BAYER/ 8.95% / DRUG; SAP/ 8.91% / SOFTWARE; BASF/ 8.30% / CHEMICALS; ALLIANZ/ 7.84% / INSURANCE; DAIMLER/ 7.18% / AUTO; DEUTSCHE TELEKOM/ 5.18% / TELECOMMUNICTIONS. As you can see, it doesn’t take much to move this puppy, as a small group of stocks can have a very large influence on the index price.

As I stated in previous posts, I’m now trading the DAX30 from its European open … it gives us diversification, a non-manipulated market, and a guaranteed mover in the equity indices; like the Dow30 used to be before it became a policy tool of Twits in the faculty lounge. Again, I’m not anybody’s guinea pig for social research, and the FED’s unbridled, overt, manipulative actions in the U.S. markets are doing more damage than they can comprehend. My biggest fear is that come September & October, they are going to find out how bad it can be.

Turning to today’s trade … “can you say ‘vapors’ in the wee hours”? … isn’t it simply a coincidence that from 7:30 – 9:30 this morning, they can manipulate it before it opens but can’t move it ± 15 points over 2 ½ hours to save its life. Probably just a coincidence that once again, not only do the idiot institutional Chipmunks get to buy the high from the manipulators at prices that 2 hours earlier were much cheaper, but the same goes for anybody trading … sorry, you get nothing!

And so once again, you can clearly see the manipulation at work in U.S. markets; seriously, outside of a day or two over these last months, has there been any days where the Dow30 has put in a good rally DURING New York trading hours? SHORT ANSWER: “hell no, it’s been 99% vapors”. And today? Well, the talking heads will tell you we got the FED meeting results due at 2 P.M., and that’s keeping activity down; “excuse me, how come that didn’t matter to the assclowns who bid it up 80 points before the open”? [Well, we’re not supposed to ask questions like that are we?] As I’ve stated before, I’m running out of adjectives to describe U.S. equity markets … I’ve got a few adverbs and nouns I’m saving, but you hopefully get the drift.

Yes, by all means, let’s wait for the clueless FED at 2 P.M. … hurry up and wait is the watchword for the day … and then what? … can it move after the FED, or does it simply sit at “record-er-er” highs for the umpteenth day in a row, and we can do it all over again tomorrow?

Again today, the DAX30 [although we won’t know for sure until closing time at 4, but the cash market closes at 11:30 EST] is substantially off its projected range for the day of about 145 points, coming in right around 100 … yea, the FED at 2, but I’m not sure what the DAX30 will do with anything the FED says barring some “out-of-the-blue” shocking surprise. If it’s biz as usual, with the usual hypnotic bullshit that puts 99.99% of all traders into a coma, it probably won’t move much at all.

Still, there were some great version 4 algo signals today … especially early, even with the 3 dramatic spikes up before the sun was up … the first one was impossible to capture, as the market went up about 20 – 25 points in a heartbeat … the second one we captured for profit, which in my mind, is “about time”. Given the limitations of the day and the way it has unfolded, I’ll take it.

This coming Sunday, I’ll have the “Quick Guide” to the version 4 algorithm done and posted … just the basics of the “how, what, where, when, & why” I [we] trade the DAX30 & the Dow30 [when it’s not dead and/or being manipulated at the same time] … it’s short and to the point, with maybe a few examples, to get you going … the full manual goes into much more detail and explanation, with tons of examples as well as theory, logic, and risk profile. The “Quick Guide” isn’t a replacement for the entire manual, it simply takes time pressure off me to finish it the way I want without having to look at the clock. Since I don’t ever think in our lifetimes the FED will stop manipulating the equity indices for policy purposes, now that they’ve started and been somewhat successful, this most likely is the last trading manual I’ll do. Maybe in the future if it needs updating with current examples, I might do that, but the core principles and trading strategies I don’t think will change. Simply because of the way it trades [a/k/a “non-manipulative”], the DAX30 is especially powerful with the version 4 algorithm. Trust me; once you see it, think about it, and study it for a day or so, the logic and sheer “PROOF” that I offer that it works, will set off a fire in your head. It will be done sometime on Sunday, and you can either view it online or download the PDF to your phone, tablet, or PC. Right now, it looks to be about 20 pages long ± a couple of pages, so while it’s not idle reading, it’s not “War & Peace’ either, and it’s in simple “non-trader professional” English.

And for you “Newbies” out there wondering … and you know who you are … “can I understand any of this and then implement it”? … the answer is a resounding “YES” [everything is Grandma approved!] … you can use your laptop, tablet, or desktop PC to run the windows full version, and if need be, you can use the phone app [once you know what’s going on] for emergencies and/or emergency liquidations. Or, alternatively you can join the PAMM where I do it for you, details over in the “Download Links” section of the website. But, please understand, while trading is simple, it’s not easy; you follow the rules [always a big if] and it’s clear sailing … you don’t, it’s hello Pudding Business I missed you!

Markets right now are “dead” [DAX30 is closed]… see my shocked face … the manipulative “con job” pulled today and yesterday in the SP500 & Dow30, with the pre-open and then the subsequent action of each day, just a classic illustration of how the FED, in bed with their criminal TBTF bank buds, rob individuals and institutions on a daily basis. It’s criminal, but nothing will ever be done about it … learn it, live it, deal with it.

Ok, now for the clueless Twits in the Mariner Eccles building giving us their “oracle” findings after huddling in the faculty lounge cafeteria. Well, market does “not much” and VIX crashes to 8.84, an all-time record low … what an F-ing joke. “Ok, tell me again … how does the market rally 80 points on “vapors”, then open and stay in a bullshit tight range the entire day? I’ll tell you how; the same manipulators buying it in the wee hours are the same schmucks selling it to the public once the market opens … thanks, come again”! Nothing to add but how pathetic equity index trading has become in the U.S.; I’m outta here early cuz I can’t take watching paint dry. Onward & Upward!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.



Time for the beach! … “the ice cream King” and I are outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

THINKING & TRADING DON’T MIX

“Well, here’s what I was thinkin’ …!”

There are times for thinking and there are times for trading; there isn’t a time when you are doing both; cuz if you do, over your trading career you will be the loser more times than “your thinking” made you a winner. As I have said repeatedly over the weeks/months/years, thinking must be done “outside” of the markets, not during trading time … your only job is to follow the trading model, method, or algorithm you have set up, not to question it or try and change the rules “on the fly” … attempts to do so will put you back into the Pudding Business faster than a Congressman cashes a campaign check.

You can view it in many ways; I’ve often said it’s like falling dominos a thousand deep from where you started. When the dominos start tipping over you have no way to know where “the tipping” eventually takes you; often, it takes you to a place you don’t want to be. In stock indices, especially, when the train gets rolling down the tracks, it makes you think there can never be another uptick ever again … a few short hours later and it gets you thinking there can never be a down tick ever again … back and forth your mind runs, from one panic side to the other. Don’t get me wrong here; I’m not saying don’t think … just do it when you aren’t trading … tinker with it, run hypothetical “what if” scenarios, consider and maybe even implement probability into your model, and demo it for a while if you have to … but don’t sit there, and in the heat of battle decide to 1) fade the algorithm, or 2) buck what you’ve put in place just because you “got a feeling”.

Turning to today’s market … I’ll say it again, “the DAX30 is a better trading market when its cash market is closed, than the Dow30 when its open”! … oh boy, another manipulative bullshit day in U.S. indices where paint can dry in real time … can’t hardly wait for this clusterfark to begin … of course, both the Dow30 & SP500 are higher this morning cuz … what else, STFU and buy moar you idiot! … reinforcing what I said the past couple of days, which is the SP500 will never be allowed by the central bankers to go down ever again … and while some of you think I’m being sarcastic, prove me wrong Mr. Market, cuz every single time it goes down even the slightest amount, it’s manipulated higher yet again. And if they don’t feel like letting it go lower, they won’t, and right now the FED is scared shitless over the upcoming budget battle & debt ceiling fiasco, and there are literally no options on the table that look good. “Oh, what a hell of a ride we are all in for in the next 10 weeks or so … fasten your seatbelts, cuz it’s got the potential to be eye watering in scope and intensity”.

And while the DAX30 [Germany’s Dow30] trades in a relatively free market exempt from the government manipulators [except in extreme circumstances], and therefore goes up/down like you would expect a market to do with millions of players of all stripes buying and selling, U.S. markets simply sit and don’t do Mr. Jack Squat cuz all they got is central bank bids propping stuff up with no sellers, and therefore you get no trading. The only time price moves is when they adjust their bids, and the Wall Street guys are quick to act accordingly. I’ve traded the SP500 for more years than many of you reading this have been alive, but you’d have to be an idiot to attempt to trade it now, in the era of central bank manipulation; why? Cuz it doesn’t move, and when it finally decides to move, it “lurches” to the whims of a group of Twits who haven’t a clue WTF they are doing and/or why … their bosses tell them what to do. But, here’s what I do know: “At some point, most likely real soon, reality is going to “bite”, and when it does, the carnage will be worse than you can imagine. Their manipulations have a price that is being deferred, and it will come due all at once in the form of destruction of the market”.

And if some of you newer readers and/or visitors to my website think I’m full of bat guano … fine, think what you want, it’s Ok … but my question to you is, “why at these all-time record highs in the Dow30 & SP500, is there no trading going on during the day? Over many days now, I’ve shown the M1 charts during the New York day of the SP500, and it looks like somebody trading butter spreads … in other words, why no activity during a time when there should be a ton of activity … either from people taking profits or people getting long some more … but there isn’t any of that … why? Well, I’ll tell you why, cuz traders have been killed for the last year and a half trying to sell it, and so the short sellers have been driven back to the Pudding Biz, and there are no buyers either, who want to be long any of this stuff at these levels, and except for the central banks who are propping it up, we wouldn’t be anywhere near these levels on either index; so, where’s the trading gonna come from with a dearth of sellers and no buyers? Well, there isn’t any”! And unfortunately, that’s where we are at in the central bank universe.

Here we are 2 hours from the open in New York, and the “vapors” to the upside have struck again … hard to say if it’s from the DAX30 being slightly higher, or do we simply round up the usual central bank morons shoving it higher cuz they can … I dunno … from where I’m sittin’ right now it looks and feels like new all-time “record-er-er” highs in the U.S. indices; why? … fun-dur-mentals of course [haha].

We’ll simply see what takes place after the Chipmunks get to buy the highs at the New York open … my best guesstimate is that it just sits all day with a slight “manipulative drift” up, and that nothing really happens except maybe marginal new highs in the Dow30 up to the high 21600’s; and yes, I’d be surprised if we went past 21700, as there is no reason anywhere for this to happen [which, knowing the manipulators, it’s in the cards somewhere].

Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? Talk about manipulative openings, this one wins the top prize for the year so far; I’m reading ZH, and they say because of Micky D’s stellar earnings report the Dow has broken 21700 on the upside. “Oh yes, nothin’ says strong economy like Sheeple gorging themselves on $1 doublel cheeseburgers cuz they can’t afford anything else … right, yea I see the logic here [not]”. And then, on well timed “news” to coincide with the open, a flurry of negative political news starts to hit the wires … all of course causing prices to plummet … and presto, bammo … 45 minutes later we’re 110 points off the highs in the Dow30, while the SP500 is down about 4 ½ points. And again, I’m sittin’ here wondering why the hell the SP500 isn’t getting “monkey hammered”? It surely deserves it, but more importantly, if it starts to lurch lower, what then happens to the Dow30? SHORT ANSWER: I don’t think it would be pretty.

Now of course, after the fun and games of the open, we sit … ahhhhh, the wonders of a manipulative market that can now go “manipulative drift” higher the rest of the day. What a crock of bat guano; and really folks, I’m starting to get more than a little pissed off at how this manipulative crap gets played out almost every day in the SP500 & Dow30, to the detriment of everyone but the dealers and the LP’s. Cuz the problem is simply this: if you’re wrong on a trade, and the market starts moving lower, you have no idea … literally no idea … of where it will end … will it be 20, 40, 60, a 100 points against me, cuz the SP500 will give you no correlation and no clue what your risk is? So, where do you draw the line? And neither I nor anybody else has a clue. So I buy that midday spike up to 64 in the Dow30 and 2 minutes later it’s at 50 … Ok, now what? … is 40 safe? … how about 20? I dunno, cuz while the Dow30 is going lower the damn SP500 is being manipulated steady to higher, and I get to sit here and wonder why they are diverging … or worse, cuz if the SP500 breaks I’m toast. Throw in the scumbag LP for some extra slippage, and somebody tell me what my risk/reward going forward is in this bag of crap?

Add to this is what I have written before; when the market dies, and you’re out money cuz you got long too early, how do you make it back when the Dow30 goes into its ±7 points BS for 3 hours? Well, you don’t, cuz there is no trading this stuff … you can position yourself, but you can’t trade it … and the SP500 is much worse … fugetaboutit for that market!

And now, here a Noon time in New York, we got the worst of all worlds; an SP500 market that is sitting right on its all-time high bid price, and a Dow30 that is 50 points off the high set before the open, when the SP500 was 3 points lower. Ok, Skippy what’s the plan here cuz nothin’ is trading? It’s simply central banks upping their bids with no buying and/or selling and [as usual] muscling the SP500 market higher by sheer brute force … there aren’t any sellers cuz they are all metaphorically dead from the last 18 months of trying to pick a top in this crap … and buyers? … who besides corporations buying back their stock and central banks is even remotely interested in buying a blow off top? And so, we sit here and do nothing with the market at literally all-time record highs. And of course, all it takes is for the SP500 to go 0.1 index points off that high, and Dow30 traders panic, and it’s 10 lower in a heartbeat.

First they can’t wait to get in line to “monkey hammer” it lower, sending it down 110 points, with the 4th low holding, and then as if somebody [umm, like the FED] sent out an email, it flips and within 60 seconds everybody is in line to buy anything/everything straight up the frickin’ wall with nary a 5 point break before the market is back up 70 … yes, please … tell me again how it’s not manipulated [haha].

Ok, now that I got that off my chest … the good news is the DAX30 … say what you want, it’s a much better “trading” market than the Dow30, and light years ahead of the SP500. Anybody still trading the SP500 needs to have a psychological evaluation done … the DAX30 still trades the way the U.S. stock indices did prior to February 2016, the date the FED became actively involved in all futures markets but especially the Dow30 & SP500. It goes up and down, and isn’t simply a “one-way street” in one panic direction or the other. Don’t get me wrong here; if you don’t trade it right, it will eat you for lunch, but the version 4 algorithm has a great handle on how to trade this market for consistent profit. And, if you want the unbridled truth, “the DAX30 market trades better [meaning up/down] WHEN IT’S CASH MARKET IS CLOSED [11:30 A.M. – 4:00 P.M. in New York, but the CFD still trades with a 0.6 index point spread], than the DOW30 TRADES WHEN IT’S OPEN”! Seriously, how screwed up is that … a sad commentary on how far down the rabbit hole U.S. markets have travelled and why U.S. markets are losing traders.

You think I’m kidding? … directly below the M1 in the DAX30 and then the SP500 … you tell me.



Is there any comparison? And you do realize, the DAX30 cash market has been closed the last 60 minutes of the DAX30 chart? What’s the SP500 excuse, except to say government manipulators are hard at work keeping the stuff propped up?

So, if they’re gonna manipulate the crap out of them, I’ll trade the DAX30 when the algorithm gives a good buy or sell signal [yes, you can both buy and sell the DAX30 for initiating a trade because it isn’t manipulated; therefore, both sides offer good trades. This isn’t something we can do in the Dow30.]. I’m not gonna sit here and be a “guinea pig” for the manipulators. If they continue with this “panic in the Dow30 / let the SP500 sleep”, they’re gonna be doing it without me, cuz I’m not giving money away just to trade so I can say “I’m trading” … trades need a reason, and when U.S. markets don’t give us one, we simply go across the pond to the “German Dow30” and trade. And right now, with heightened uncertainty in the EU regarding a host of things including the EURUSD, QE, and interest rates going forward, there is plenty of news to keep European equity markets like the DAX30 hopping.

Now it’s mid-afternoon, and the SP500 hasn’t moved ± 0.3 index points in the last hour, but the Dow30 has traded between 45 and 63; now, what sense does this make? You might as well be flying a jet aircraft somewhere at night with no instruments and hoping you don’t hit the side of a mountain or crash it into the ground, cuz if you get long and find yourself down 10 in this puppy, what do you do? “Hope is NOT a trading strategy”! As I said the other day, I’m running out of adjectives to explain this crap, cuz in no way, shape or form does anything make sense, especially the relationship of the Dow30 to the SP500 … we are in “Bizarro World”!

It’s mid-afternoon in New York, and this is a cruel joke … I’m just sittin’ here shaken my head … SP500 can’t go up and can’t go down … the Dow30 for its part acting like a schizophrenic meth addict, shooting 5-7 points on “vapors”, only to go back and forth via the LP whims in filling orders off the market with slippage.

Well, enough of the Dow30 & SP500 … both need psychiatric help. Not a great day in the DAX30 … range only about 2/3 of the expected range for the day based on 20 day MA of ranges, but a day nonetheless where the algorithm did a good job of pinpointing long trades given its “buy mode” most of the day. Again, and it’s not an unimportant point, this market “trades”, and that produces very decent risk/reward setups in its trades. One trade today, and I simply had no choice but to take a quick profit, as the market severely spiked higher … and we know what that means, as large spikes are a very big signal to liquidate. So, a profitable scalp for the day … and after that trade, the market couldn’t hold a bid, even with hitting a marginal new high some time later … whenever it went up, it simply went back down just as fast if not faster than it went up … not exactly the kind of action I want in a long position. Looking at the daily candlestick, a little “meat” on the fat part of the candlestick here in the late afternoon, but nonetheless in my mind’s eye still mostly a “doji” day in the DAX30; and anytime we make money on a “Doji” day it’s a big victory. “So, I’ll take it and treat me and the dog to some soft serve at the DQ when we go to the beach later”! Onward & Upward!


PAMM spreadsheet directly below.



Time for DQ & the beach … “the ice cream King” and I are outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Monday, July 24, 2017

WHEN THE DESPERATE PANIC

“A quick guide summary of FED policy!”

Anybody but me notice, we haven’t had many upside “vapors” nights the last couple of weeks; think it’s a coincidence that at the same time practically every major investment house on Wall Street has “called out” the FED and lambasted them for being “misinformed to downright ignorant & dangerous”? Think there’s much panic over at the Eccles building in D.C. inside the faculty lounge?

Well, I happen to think that yes there is some mode levels of panic going on; for one thing, ChairSatan Yellen retires in a few months come the start of 2018, and the foremost thing on her mind is a smooth last few months with zero problems, and as little criticism as possible. TRANSLATION: FED policy on automatic pilot, just get me the hell outta here to that “gushy” 7 figure gig over at JPM or the Squid, and get the book publishers lined up with their checkbooks open for my memoirs. That’s about all you need to know, but there’s one slight problem.

It’s called September & October, historically the worst 2 months of the year for stocks, stock indices, and bond markets the world over; and this year, we have not only the most “nuclear toxic” political environment since Reagan, we have a budget battle & debt ceiling battle that has the potential to be “epic” … grab the popcorn, cuz my gut feeling is President Trump is going to call the bluff of Libtards & Rino’s, and shut the government down for maybe a good long time … which is a good thing, cuz it will at least show Sheeple life goes on without the “Nanny State”, and that … yes, your life can survive and prosper without Apparatchiks micro-managing everything. Of course, the political theatre will be LOL, as Libtard’s heads will explode and provide more comedy than a string of Nancy Pelosi & Maxine Waters speeches combined.

But the other problem I mentioned the other day; and that is, what is the FED & the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] afraid of, that they can’t let the SP500 break or close lower [more than a fraction of a point] for more than one day in a row? Why do you protect and defend a market that is so far over extended to the upside it borders on ridiculous? Cuz if it doesn’t “correct” soon and take away some of the sell pressure, by the time the budget battle and debt ceiling become “front page” news, you are going to see a group of markets that “blow up” and get the living snot beat out of them; and the very thing the FED says they don’t want to see, which is investor panic to the downside, is exactly what they get. “Now Grandma Yellen, you got a problem, and it threatens your legacy and “gushy” retirement … cuz there ain’t gonna be no 7 digit consulting job if you let markets go into the shitter right before you leave … and you know it”!

Turning to today’s market’s … the Dow30 & the SP500 continue to be downright dead, while the DAX30 is trading all over the place … there is no question, that at least for right now, the DAX30 has better intraday volatility and better trading opportunities; even with the auto industry news from Germany, the fact that it isn’t nearly as manipulated [despite what the babe over on ZH says, who was in the PPT for years, and CLAIMS they don’t do much … yea, right] as the U.S. indices, makes for better trading. If you took a look at the DAX30 M1 from today, what you would see is what the Dow30 looked like prior to February 2016.

Yes, please tell me how correlated these markets are … since the open the SP500 is down about 3 ½ index points, the Dow30 is down 70 points, and the DAX30 is up 30 points … in a world filled with manipulators, anything/everything happens. But, I’m not buying the Dow30 until the SP500 breaks … and 1 point isn’t a break … I don’t want to get caught in an SP500 downdraft and be long the Dow30 when it happens, especially when the range in the SP500 is a paltry 6 points … I’m supposed to think this is going to be it for the day?  I’m not looking for some kind of crash, but simply for some kind of movement from the SP500 that can give me an idea of where support/resistance and stops are at. Right now, we got “nada”, and a Dow30 market that is simply either panic buy or panic sell … take your pick … and all it pretty much takes is the SP500 to move ½ of an index point to set things off in either direction. Simply put, this isn’t trading, it’s gambling.

Here in the early afternoon, the DAX30, which the cash market in Frankfurt, Germany closed 2 hours ago … it has a bigger trading range closed than the Dow30 has open. There have been many outright pitiful trading days lately, but this one takes the cake … day is half over from the New York open, and the SP500 has less than a 3 index point range, with no indication from anywhere it can move even the smallest amount it is soooooooooo manipulated by central banks. It’s no wonder nobody is trading it … why? But, don’t take my word for it; directly below, the world’s most manipulated & corrupt stock index futures market, which supposedly has the highest volume and deepest liquidity, the SP500.


Oh yea, take  look at this beauty above and tell me there isn’t outright manipulation going on … no buying, no selling, no trading, it’s simply a frickin’ joke … just central bank bids that get adjusted. And from this we get the Dow30 panic attacks, where all it takes, is literally a 0.3 index point move and the Dow30 can rally or drop 20 points.

Trading the Dow30 without some kind of guidance [meaning correlation] from the SP500 market, is like flying an airplane at night with no instrument rating … only bad things are gonna happen. Earlier today, the Dow30 broke from the open almost 90 points … meanwhile the SP500 went down grudgingly about 2.8 index points … as if somebody hit a light switch and changed everything, the Dow30 then has climbed about 40 points while … wait for it … the SP500 has gone back up the 2.8 points it lost earlier and is sitting [literally] right where it was at the open. The first series of lows on the Dow30 all got taken out in quick order, despite the bullish engulfing patterns as it went down … all-in-all, the first 4 legs down would have produced losses in the area of about 10-12 points if you acted quickly … the fifth low, again if you acted quickly, would have gained you about 40 points low to high [and has been sitting here for the last hour] … somebody tell me what is gained by breaking even on a series of trades when the SP500 by comparison is doing “zip, zero, zilch, nada”? Simply put, without the SP500 moving somewhere [up/down I don’t care], it makes all the Dow30 quotes and prices suspect, and it’s the reason I didn’t trade the Dow30 this morning.

Earlier in the day, the version 4 algorithm gave a buy signal in the DAX30, which I took, but after 3 minutes of attempting to go higher it couldn’t and failed … so, I treated it as a profitable scalp. In retrospect, I should have stayed in the DAX30 its entire cash trading day [3 AM – 11:30 AM EST], but left it alone to watch paint dry in the U.S. markets. Whatever it is you want to call today in the U.S. equity indices markets, “trading” isn’t a term I would use. It’s about an hour until the close, and I simply can’t take this crap anymore today … pathetic would be a compliment it’s so bad. Onward & Upward!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Time for the beach … dog and I are outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Sunday, July 23, 2017

SUNDAY DAX30 UPDATE FOR 7/23/2017

2017 PLOT OF DAX30 RANGES 20 DAY MA [BLUE[ VS 20 DAY MEDIAN [RED] [Click on chart to enlarge]

Directly above is a line chart, from the start of 2017 to present, that shows the average 20 day simple MA [moving average] in blue, versus the average 20 day simple MEDIAN in red for the following week in the DAX30. The blue line is the “simple average” of the last 20 days ranges for each day; the red line is the MEDIAN [meaning the 50% value of 10 days above and 10 days below] of the last 20 days ranges.

When the BLUE LINE IS OVER THE RED LINE, it means there are some outlier large ranges [up/down doesn’t matter] in the last 20 days that were well above average for the series, and tends to skew the data higher. WHEN THE BLUE LINE IS UNDER THE RED LINE, it means there were some abnormally “low range” days that skewed the data for the series lower. And finally, when both lines are relatively equal, the data is consistent for the last 20 days and most days fall relatively close to the average and median; in other words, no outlier days.

What this gives you is a very good “snapshot” of intraday volatility in the DAX30, and whether it is increasing, going down, or relatively stable in terms of expected ranges each week. You can tell from the above graph, for example, that at the start of the year intraday volatility dropped, as that data is dependent on data from December and the Holiday’s, where ranges can be very low. In addition, we also had a drop during the period surrounding the Dutch and French elections, as uncertainty gripped Europe and stock traders and investors backed away. You can also see, that right now we are at the highest levels of intraday volatility of 2017.

From now on, on Sunday, I’ll post the chart for the UPCOMING WEEK, and give the raw data for the year in table form directly below it, so you can see the actual values for each week of the year. For each date and corresponding value, it means for example, that for the upcoming week of July 24th that starts Monday [tomorrow], you would use either or both of the values in your trading for each day of this week. Next weekend, I’ll post a new chart with new values for that upcoming week. Directly below the tables of the raw data for the DAX30.

[CONTINUED]


The complete “-vegas Version 4 Volatility Algorithm” is a long document, and it’s taking me longer than I had originally anticipated to finish it. Once I started writing it, I quickly realized that “what I know” isn’t what you or trading Newbies know, and that I had to make a greater effort to explain things in simple English, along with more examples than ever before. Therefore, it’s taking me some time, and it looks as though it may be a few weeks yet before I’m happy with it and it’s released here on the website.

I’ve decided, that what’s needed is a “quick guide” to the version 4 algo, and to that end, next weekend I’ll have a very brief summary available for viewing online or download [Over in the “Download Links” section in the right hand column], that is only a few pages long yet gives a summary of the algorithm rules, how to apply them and trade the DAX30 and/or the Dow30. This will get all of you going, as well as give me some time to finish the big enchilada without worrying about time constraints or rushing to finish and forgetting something.

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!