DON’T MAKE MOUNTAINS OUT OF MOLE HILLS

 

“Trading is SIMPLE! … I never said it was EASY!!”

Before we get to actual trading, a few things need to be said … 1) traditional

financial markets are RIGGED, MANIPULATED, & SKEWED against specs

… 2) trading platforms are dishonest and a disgrace to the concept of trading

anything representing a “free market” … and 3) liquidity providers [LP’s]

everywhere, no matter the platform or house, are scumbag thieves and crooks

and belong in jail … their sole purpose is to enrich themselves at your expense,

and they all employ to varying degrees very sophisticated mathematical

algorithms to trip you up into losses … they understand spec psychology better

than you know yourself, and most likely you never realize you are constantly

being enticed into psychological reactions you don’t understand or fully

appreciate.

I’ve written at length about “arb scalping”, which is only available with LP’s that

are not on the MetaTrader MT4 or MT5 platforms … you are completely at the

mercy of a scumbag LP for a bid and offer, without knowing whether or not it’s

legit or bogus … most are “BOGUS” / phantom bid/offers, and you have ZERO

chance of ever getting a fill near them … under the surface, the LP is skimming

the shit out of markets worldwide, and you end up getting the worst bid/offer

imaginable WITH SLIPPAGE TO BOOT! … it’s called life at the bottom of the

MetaTrader totem pole!

Open Order Book [OOB] platforms are only available in crypto, but are just as

susceptible to abuse from “arbs” [SPOOFING ORDERS] and “Whales”

[RUNNING STOPS], and most of the time that depth of market you’re looking at

is a complete joke … again, manipulation at the highest psychological level

known to humans, and the “spoofing” bullshit that goes on here is legendary

… bid/offer spreads are about as tight as tight can be, with the problem being

“gas fees” [a/k/a commissions], which are “high” to say the least … then we

encounter places like IQCENT, which have the OOB tight spreads, and also

have ZERO commissions … it begs the question of “how do they make their

money then?” … EASY PEEZEE: “they split slippage & thievery with the LP

[Thompson Reuters], and probably sell customer account information to boot

for extra income [nothing personal, just trading info about you]”.

I mentioned briefly the other day about “anti” scalping measures LP’s employ

against specs … 1) the bid/offer quote doesn’t correspond 1:1 with a primary

market [e.g., Phemex] … so while a crypto pair rallies 7 ticks on the bid side at

Phemex, at IQCENT, the bid/offer doesn’t change at all, it remains the same as

before the rally … if the market keeps rallying, then the IQCENT LP will in one

jump, up the bid/offer by a factor set by a mathematical algorithm that represents

a statistical “T DISTRIBUTION” based on current volatility in the marketplace … if

VIX is low or medium it can jump 7 - 15 ticks, and if VIX is bat shit crazy [BSC], it

can go much higher to levels over 70+ ticks into the hundreds! 

Bottom line is simple … what seems like random up/down movement AIN’T!

… it’s the LP attempting to thwart specs who are “scalping” cuz the market is

volatile enough to do it and make money at the LP’s expense … and the LP is

saying to you, “we have ways to defeat you that you aren’t aware of!” … only,

they didn’t reckon on me coming along and spilling the beans! … generally

speaking, “T DISTRIBUTIONS” are an attempt to normalize small sample sizes

… directly below a generalization.

Generally speaking, you have to determine the scope of “BASIS PREMIUM” &

“BASIS DISCOUNT” for the crypto pair or pairs you are trading, and get a good

idea given the VIX level of the pair when you’re trading it, of where PREMIUMS

& DISCOUNT values are at and when you should adjust them for major VIX

changes … remember “BASIS” = (price at PHEMEX) - (PRICE AT IQCENT)

… NEVER EVER buy a DISCOUNT [price is higher at IQCENT than Phemex]

… I’m most familiar with the crypto pair MATICUSDT [POLYGON] … under

normal VIX for the pair, PREMIUMS & DISCOUNTS will be in the +25 ticks for

PREMIUM to -25 ticks for DISCOUNTS … when m1’s start to go BSC, they can

go into the hundreds! … realize that these measures taken by the LP are to

thwart scalpers looking for a quick hit at the LP’s expense … they may look

random, but I can assure you they aren’t! … you need to know the SCUMBAGS

YOU ARE DEALING WITH!, and how to defeat them at their own game! … very,

very few understand this, but now you do!

The trading algorithm for crypto pairs is as POTENT AS IT CAN POSSIBLY BE!

… TEMA period 13 [white], and SMA period 7, hl/2, [orange] … both in the library

of indicators on the Phemex platform [ https://phemex.com/trade/MATICUSDT ]

… and in crypto, volume is often a harbinger of tops and bottoms, especially after

a medium to long run in price [up or down, doesn’t matter] … large sell volume

[red] at bottoms and large buy volume [green] at tops … directly below FROM

EARLIER TODAY, can you spot the top in MATICUSDT price and match it with

volume?

click on chart to enlarge

Crypto pairs love to run and squeeze cashews! … “Whales” love to “pump &

dump” pairs at will, and the TEMA & SMA lines are almost perfect in calling

short term TRADEABLE TOPS & BOTTOMS! … “just follow it Skippy” … when

TEMA is above SMA BUY PREMIUM … liquidate on jumps higher … rinse / repeat,

what’s the problem? … don’t turn mole hills into mountains by adding a whole

bunch of technical indicator shit that is only going to rob performance … nobody

can deliver the “Holy Grail” so stop looking for it! … and btw, as 2024 unfolds,

more and more people will make the move to crypto pairs and abandon

traditional markets altogether … “it’s dead Jim, it’s DEAD!”

Like previous days, monster ranges in SOLUSDT & MATICUSDT, and if you can’t

make money in this, YOU CAN’T MAKE MONEY PERIOD! … blog update on

Sunday … cya then!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

DON’T LOOK NOW … SOLANA [SOLUSDT] IS ON FIRE!

 

“I don’t care what they do or don’t do … I’m strictly watching price!!”

While the traditional financial world goes “sleepytime” cuz the government

manipulators demand it, over in crypto Solana [SOLUSDT] goes orbital, having

doubled in approximately a month from $60 to $120+ … traded at Phemex

[primary market] and also at IQCENT, it has the largest ranges currently running

… however, when markets [even crypto] run sloooooow like today, the LP at

IQCENT isn’t exactly moving and shaking things up, and small moves in the

primary market [Phemex] aren’t going to be reflected at IQCENT cuz the LP

refuses to move the bid/offer … so be careful and mindful of liquidity and

volume levels when trading crypto.

This day is bullshit with literally nothing happening, and it’s not as if I didn’t

expect this … tomorrow might pick up some … might … but it feels to me like

the trading year is over and there isn’t anything left … we’ll see … no trades in

anything … onto tomorrow.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

THE START OF A NEW INFLATIONARY CYCLE HAS BEGUN

 

“In 5 years or less! … the Banana Republic is about to go Weimar!!”

Historians have noted, that a caving FED Chairman [Bill Martin] did the same as

Spicoli, when in 1965 he caved to LBJ, cuz LBJ wanted the FED to print cheap

money to finance the Vietnam war … the inflation that caused lasted a little less

than 20 years and didn’t end until Reagan became Preezy … how many hundreds

of times bigger is government now than back then … this new inflationary cycle

will be many times worse than anything you can think of, and may end the

Banana Republic as you know it … my prediction? … “Within 5 years that $100

bill will only buy you a loaf of bread! … you keep returning the “Uniparty” to

the Clown College, and voting for Marxist Libtards for Preezy, and somehow the

laws of money will remain the same? … Keep dreaming!”

Well now, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … the Lounge Lizards playing

“good cop / bad cop” … Spicoli the “good” cop, now comes Williams the “bad”

cop saying March is too soon to be cutting rates … and down goes Frazier!

… what a bunch of fucking nobody LOSERS who haven’t a fucking clue what

they are doing, except to create unnecessary chaos … retarded kittens on meth

could run monetary policy better than these Assholes! … EXIT QUESTION: “so

why didn’t Spicoli say this shit in his presser on Wednesday? … why the

good cop / bad cop bullshit? … who benefits from this game you’re playing?

… they need to be called out by the financial MSM hacks on North Korean run

CNBC, or Dumbberg, BUT WON’T! … call out the FED and you lose your job!

The phone lines must have been burning up with major banks screaming at the

FED to do something to stop this freight train higher in pretty much all markets

… remember, what is bought is sold to you by scumbag banks … Spicoli’s epic

“flip flop” has left the banks mucho short … well, trot Williams out for the splash

of cold water on everything that is hot, and it ends “el quicko mucho” … this is

how modern markets work, and it being a Friday with record history OPEX

[$3.1 TRILLION worth], and gains from Wednesday at a minimum, it’s a perfect

recipe for corrective activity to the downside … no need to ask who benefits!

And once he opened his mouth and said exactly the OPPOSITE of what Spicoli

said on Wednesday, it’s look out below … Cable gets monkey hammered of

course, gold gets battered of course, and given the dynamics of his comments,

who wants to buy anything now? … the problem? … these Assholes have no

credibility left … LESS THAN ZERO! … by next week, Williams will have changed

his mind about 15 times, and echo Spicoli as ALL of the Lounge Lizards get the

hymnal in the choir … simply looking at a daily Cable chart. It’s easy enough to

see it needed a rest with some corrective activity anyway, but the FED PIE HOLE

decided to give it a push off the cliff just to make certain his buds at JPM, Squid,

and all of the other virus scum on Wall Street got their correction and their books

squared away before the weekend … what a crooked pile of dinosaur shit! 

And this is how things are done in the modern era of central bank manipulation

… “If I went back to B-school, any chance they’d be teaching this?”

… Bwahahaha … and once it became patently obvious of what was going on,

there’s no way I want to be on the buy side of Cable today, or buy cheap gold

that’s gonna be cheaper still in 5 minutes … none of this shit has anywhere to

go on the upside today … No trades for the PAMM today in Cable.

Especially now, when we know with 150% certainty that these shit weasels will

change their mind at the snap of their greasy fingers, and end up screwing you,

that you have a reliable schedule of when they are to speak … Market Watch is

just the place. Directly below the link at Market Watch [MW] for the most reliable

calendar for FED speakers.

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

I always check them to see when these shit weasels are gonna flap their PIE

HOLES … forexlive.com is good for econ data, but often times they miss FED

speaking engagements … today a perfect example, cuz they missed Williams

appearance on North Korean state run CNBC. If you’re trading ANYTHING,

before you start your day, ALWAYS check the schedule and make sure you are

out of the market when these Dipshits speak, CUZ NOBODY KNOWS WHAT

HORSESHIT THEY’RE GONNA SPEW FOR THEIR MASTERS ON WALL STREET!

So going into his appearance on CNBC I was flat … Cable looked to be

bottoming after Europe took it lower, but I didn’t bite minutes before he spoke

cuz I know the damage these Ass Clowns do to any market that is highly

sensitive to interest rates, and Cable is near the top of the list! … and once it’s

over, it’s the “Loser Formation” until the London Fix, and then when JPM and

the boys take over, it’s pretty much right down the stairs … I want no part of this

as a buyer.

“Arb Scalps” have disappeared … over in crypto, looking at MATICUSDT, light

premiums all day long in the “Basis”, but nothing you can “hang your hat on”

as they are to skimpy … ranges in crypto from early AM simply awful

… MATICUSDT with an approximate 300 tick range … you know interest is

lagging when MATICUSDT is quoting a 1 tick bid/offer spread at Phemex when

it’s usually between 7 - 12+ ticks normally … whew, this stinks! … and so, no

trades for “The Syndicate” today cuz nobody in crypto really wanted to play!

… blog update on Sunday.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

FANTASY NUMBERS FROM THE WHIZ KIDS

“Me on my roof … I have captured & detected government bullshit!!”

Well now, most important inflation numbers EVAHHHHHH!, until of course the

next one, and while the “Uniparty” destroys the Banana Republic with profligate

spending on the dumbest shit possible for the “Free Shit Army”, it’s important to

know if you’re one of the “math whiz kids” calculating inflation horseshit, that

the fate of the country depends on you lying … and then when the numbers

either meet or exceed lower the expectations of Wall Street analysts, the Ponzi

con game can continue unabated for another month.

But what if the “whiz kids” didn’t get the White House email for mandatory

lower inflation numbers, and inflation truth takes hold? … then Skippy, markets

have a very big problem!

Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … well, for a few minutes anyway … and

after the immediate mandatory rollercoaster in USDJPY, that screed both longs

and shorts, scumbag banks decided to take it slightly higher … then the fun

began, cuz after that second leg up to the 145.50 area, the bullshit chop that

ensued for about 20 minutes allowed me to multiple “arb scalps” in quick order,

with PREMIUMS of about 12-15 PIPS, which almost immediately came back to

“basis” ZERO or a slight discount … “OK, fine so far, let’s keep the party going

shall we?” … err, no let’s not! … and as fast as it started, it ended even faster as

USDJPY died on the vine “el quicko mucho” … and it never came back out of

about a 25 PIP range of bullshit chop for the next 5+ hours … and with that kind

of bullshit going on, which is just pre-positioning for tomorrow’s FED interest

rate horseshit, there’s no way you get any “arb scalps” that mean anything or are

going to go somewhere, simply cuz the market isn’t going to give you the

PREMIUM to buy cuz nobody is panicking any longer … well yes, this is

disappointing, so when they won’t play, time to move over to the area that’s

always “playing”! … crypto … and MATICUSDT is on the move again, with half

the New York session over [7 AM EST - 7 PM EST], it’s already got an

approximate 500+ PIP range and is delivering the bacon so to speak.

Now follow me here, and make sure you understand the importance of what I’m

writing … there’s a “bigly & yuge” difference between USDJPY [maybe EURUSD]

AND THE CRYPTO PAIRS when it comes to “arb scalps”… they act differently,

and the dynamics of the trade are entirely different … I’m going today to

highlight how “arb scalps” are set up in crypto pairs, particularly my favorite

pair MATICUSDT [POLYGON] … let’s first remember how “basis” is determined,

cuz you absolutely CANNOT trade at IQCENT without a primary market for price

on another platform … I like Phemex, but there are others like Binance

… “BASIS” = the BID price of MATICUSDT @ PHEMEX - THE PRICE OF WHERE

YOU CAN BUY IT @ IQCENT … therefore, I want to buy PREMIUM BASIS, and I

NEVER buy DISCOUNT BASIS!  

Now let’s remember how IQCENT & their LP [Thompson Reuters] make their

money when the bid/offer spread is only 1 tick at the 4th decimal place AND

there are no commissions … EASY PEEZEE: “They blatantly screw their client

base on fills, and whatever they steal the LP splits it with management of the

brokerage house, in this case IQCENT, but remember the LP probably has

dozens of houses where they act as LP.” … which immediately begs the

question of why I would recommend a house that does this? … it’s cuz of the

fluctuations of the “basis” from positive to negative, back & forth, all day and

night, and our ability TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THIS … AN ADVANTAGE

WHEN DONE RIGHT, YOU’RE NOT EVER GONNA GET ON THE MT4 OR ON

OPEN ORDER BOOK [OOB] PLATFORMS BY THEMSELVES EVER! 

Since crypto is essentially 100% spec, where arbs in the primary market

[Phemex or Binance] are present to reflect spec order flow while making

guaranteed money making trades with specs, it’s the source of the calculation

for the “basis” … then along comes lesser LP’s like the one at IQCENT, and they

have an entirely different agenda … their computers keep close track of all of the

clients trading a pair like MATICUSDT, AND THEIR COMPUTER SYSTEMS KNOW

TO THE NANOSECOND WHEN IT’S OVERBOUGHT OR OVERSOLD … when it

gets overbought, that means future sell pressure cuz they all got to sell and

liquidate at some point … on the way down, specs often double / triple /

quadruple up losing positions, SO YOU ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO SEE

PREMIUM BASIS … why? … cuz the LP knows there’s sell pressure cuz your

long, it ain’t gonna give you an out unless you “SELL IT IN THE HOLE!” … in

other words, you sold MATICUSDT @ 0.8614 cuz that was the bid, while at

Phemex the bid was 0.8630 … when specs puke collectively all at once, the

PREMIUM will balloon out to levels of around 25 - 30 ticks … that’s the usual

norm … but when conditions get truly bat shit crazy [BSC], and MATICUSDT

goes down 200 - 500 ticks in 1 or 2 m1’s, the PREMIUM HAS IN THE PAST

BALLOONED OUT TO 200+ TICKS … I’ve shown the trades I and Miss Gimpy

have made in MATICUSDT, where in 30 seconds or less we’ve made this 200

ticks as the “basis” comes back near ZERO “el quicko mucho”!

On the flip side, when traders get oversold in MATICUSDT, off of any bottom

you’ll see a DISCOUNT GO ORBITAL … it’s not unusual to see anywhere from

-20 on the basis, and if the rally is acute going straight up, to -40+ DISCOUNT

… the reason should be obvious! … the LP isn’t gonna let you out unless you

“PAY THE PIPER BABY!” AND HIT THE OFFER TO LIQUIDATE some 40 ticks

OVER where the offer at Phemex is at … and what if it sits for a minute or two

and goes down slightly? … if history is any guide the DISCOUNT WON’T COME

IN VERY MUCH … and if it takes off again higher, you are truly fucked, where

you’ll end up buying the high some -30 to -40 “basis”!

The entire premise then of the LP is pretty easy to figure out, and unless you

maintain discipline & patience, they will catch you and screw you! … and the

system favors long positions cuz when you buy PREMIUM, all that needs to

happen is for the bid at Phemex to stay steady or go up a few ticks, and that

PREMIUM disappears “el quicko mucho” so fast it will make your eyes water

… literally seconds … THAT’S NOT HOW IT WORKS ON THE SHORT SIDE OF

THINGS! … and that’s why I strongly recommend for crypto pairs, you trade

them from the LONG side and get the proper PREMIUM … I’m not your MOM, so

if you want to venture to the short side, it’s fine with me, but don’t email me with

tears in your eyes when you get short a fat DISCOUNT, and some pair like

MATICUSDT JUST KEEPS GOING STRAIGHT UP, AND ALONG THE WAY TO THE

TOP IT KEEPS THAT -20 TO -30 DISCOUNT, and in the process it blows the shit

out of your account … I don’t wanna hear about it, cuz I warned traders

NOT TO DO IT!

And as I have repeatedly said, you don’t buy PREMIUM on the way down in price,

cuz neither I nor you have any idea where it can land … it will eventually bottom,

and that’s where the nice, juicy, fat PREMIUMS WILL SHOW UP FOR

PROFITABLE LONG TRADES … for a pair like MATICUSDT, I’m looking for

PREMIUM in the vicinity of 20+ ticks once it bottoms … and if it doesn’t happen,

OK fine, I just wait cuz it will happen at some point! … and if SHTF on the way

down to hundreds of ticks lost, 20 ticks of PREMIUM ain’t gonna cut it … just

wait and there should be a MASSIVE PREMIUM COMING SHORTLY FROM

SYSTEM STOPS.

A truly disappointing day in USDJPY, where 1) U.S. CPI came in right on

consensus, and 2) once the dust settled from the report the market simply died

on the vine giving not only “arb scalps” the “deep six”, but simple algo signals

the kiss of death as well … no trades in the PAMM, but tomorrow sees PPI early,

then the “Biggy”, the FED at 2 PM EST … I doubt the PPI does anything, but

we’ll see.

For “The Syndicate” today multiple arb scalps” in USDJPY in a short time frame,

and then I moved over to MATICUSDT, where “arb scalps” were plentiful cuz

MATICUSDT IS/WAS MOVING! … WE’RE UP APPROXIMATELY 0.8% on light

volumes, here before FED day … and while MATICUSDT was moving, BTC &

ETH didn’t do Mr. Jack “Diddly” Squat in the U.S. session so far … go figure!

… but it’s crypto, so anything / everything can happen and usually does

… onto tomorrow.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas