GOLD & CRUDE OIL: IN YOUR FUTURE?

HAPPY CAMPERS MAKE MONEY WITH THE ALGORITHM!

“Everything is F-ing Awesome Baby!” Well, unless you have pneumonia [yea, sure], lie for a living, get “over-heated” from a no humidity 70° day, have to be propped up and eventually shoved face first into a van; but for everybody else trading the algorithm, it’s been a pretty good day!

“The Great Bullion Wall of Selling”; Commercials are waiting for you!

Over the last couple of blog posts I have written about the bullion banks, dealers [LP’s], and the manipulators headed by the Fed &BIS that, in my humble opinion, are erecting a “wall of selling” that is going to be very hard to overcome [at least until 9/21 when the Fed meets], despite bouts of short covering that take the market higher. Nowhere is that more evident than today; if you watch the action, rallies don’t last very long, and then … BOOM! … the market gets hammered on an M1 down spike.

Today, early out of the gate we got our first trade; directly below the buy at the exhaustion “hit” down at the 1322 area.

As I have written earlier, I am very nervous at the moment about being long gold; unless you buy it damn near perfect, you’re going to find yourself under water on the position. Since that “blow off $30 move the day after Labor Day, gold can’t rally more than a few bucks tops before the commercial sellers come in and slap the hell out of it, and here we are a week later and that $30 rally is totally wiped out without anything of substance in terms of a rally since it happened.

So, given the facts, I’m pretty quick on the trigger liquidating on the way up, at least for now. LP’s being LP’s, they will take you “out back of the shed” and shoot you in the head with your sell fill if you wait for this stuff to start going down; you have to sell on the way up and live with the consequences that maybe it can go a little higher.

Over the weekend I posted the crude oil algorithms, and you can download and/or view the information from the “Download Links” section over in the right hand column; well, what a great debut for the oil algorithm!

I had 2 trades today from crude oil, and although I was a little disconcerted that the first 2 potential [I say “potential” because I didn’t make them they happened so damn fast and went to the exhaustion lines] moves of the day happened without me, crude oil being crude oil and it is a very long 6 hour day where literally anything can happen in this market, that feeling quickly gave way. Directly below the crude oil trades.

A couple of things I want to bring up; 1) do the exhaustion lines [aqua & red] “nail” this market or what? [EMAIL ME IF YOU KNOW OF SOMETHING BETTER!], and 2) the second trade I liquidated on the spike up, and if I had waited there was another 30 cents on the upside. And so, like gold, you live with the consequences of getting a good liquidation fill [which I did by the way, and now you know why].

Over 90% of the time, the RM=1 exhaustion lines in crude will hold up and be either a short term top or bottom; other moves will be stronger, and like we saw on Labor Day can be RM=4. I lay out in the components manual PDF why I believe this is the case, and why the algorithm is exceptional in capturing these moves from Gann’s work, along with my ideas.

For all of you Newbies wanting to learn to trade or traders who have been trading but don’t like their results, I’m telling you right now crude oil is a viable market for your consideration; literally any size account , whether you got damn near zero and up, can trade this market via the CFD’s. Once you have the algorithm up and running on the MT4, whether you trade futures or CFD’s, and once you understand the algorithm rules and procedures, all you need is patience & discipline to make consistent money. As long as volatility holds, and I see no reason why it shouldn’t given world politics, the crude algorithm will make you money!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OPEN A DEMO AND/OR LIVE ACCOUNT AT THE LMFX LINK IN THE “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION OF THE WEBSITE TITLED “OPEN TRADING ACCOUNT – DO IT NOW!”

OUR LMFX GOLD TRADING PAMM WILL BE READY AS SOON AS LMFX GETS THROUGH WITH UPGRADES TO ITS PAMM SOFTWARE! WE ARE VERY CLOSE; OPEN YOUR LIVE TRADING ACCOUNT TODAY, FUND IT, AND BE READY TO PARTICIPATE!

 

NON COMPUTABLE PROBLEMS IN TRADING

SOMETIMES THERE ARE NO ANSWERS

One of the major problems we all face [life = trading, trading = life] are the “nitty gritty” details of implementing a plan with 100% certainty where we have insufficient information to produce anything but a probabilistic outcome; none more than trading to be sure.

This reality is the major reason I have never attempted or desired to place my algorithm into an “Expert Advisor” [EA] for people to have “the machines” [hello Skynet?] trade their account while they soak up sun on the beach. It never works that way does it? There are other issues as well, like having the liquidity provider bank [LP] know how your algorithm works because the “code” is placed into their system for execution, and so ahead of time you are letting these financial ripoff artists them know what “your game plan is”. Come execution time you find the fills you were getting on the “demo” aren’t nearly the same as in real time and so all of your hypothetical results from testing become “dried bullshit flakes in the wind” as the LP drops the bid or raises the offer a nanosecond before your EA needs a fill on a market order. I’m sure it’s just a coincidence this happens almost 100% of the time. [Note: There is one way, and only one way to get decent, fair market fills from an LP; sell on the way up, or buy on the way down. That’s it, there is no other option; you wait and sell after it starts to go down and you pay the price.]

When analyzing the gold volatility algorithm, there is a very subjective analysis needed when hunting for that “large spike” to liquidate. Granted, when price spikes to the exhaustion lines, it becomes purely objective, and it’s a “no brainer” to hit the “close position” button on the order box as you know with a very, very high probability that the market price is hitting a top in real time. But on other more popular liquidations, the problem becomes one of “measurement”, and on top of that it really begs the question, “How much more in the spike than what I’ve seen so far in the position; I mean a penny, 10 cents, 50 cents, a Dollar, what exactly?”  Hey, the computer code is calling and it really wants to know.

Often, it’s easy to distinguish the difference, but many times if your “code” is looking for something else, you get banged out before the move runs itself out, and so you are constantly getting out too early. OK, you say, I’ll just adjust the code; well now, your problem is you’re staying in the position too late, because the problem now is that the “code” isn’ calculating [or seeing] what you told it to look for, so you stay in the position past the top and suffer rotten fills again on the way down. In other words, this becomes a game you can never win.

Directly below are 2 algorithm signals from today.

The liquidation points are pretty easy to distinguish, and if I had 100 people in the room I think all 100 would say, “yea, this is the largest up spike since the inception of the position [appropriate white arrow and then appropriate orange arrow liquidation] and it’s definitely time to get out.” But there are plenty of other times, where if you coded a specific Dollars & Cents per Oz. extra gain over an average of spikes, you’d fall a penny short in the bid price and the EA would NOT get you out, and as a result you’d need a “Plan B” criteria in the code to exit. This isn’t acceptable to me as a professional trader; I’m smarter than an EA., and more importantly I know something when I see it! [Hint: In a trading pit you could feel it.]

Now, trading is not a game where you get “one shot” at profits and then the gig is up for the day; so, the upside here for every type of trader that uses my volatility algorithm is that you’ll get plenty of chances during the trading day to implement the algorithm [usually]; even if your best effort on trade 1 or 2 wasn’t “optimum”, and you somehow waited and got a worse price, just do it again the “right way” and learn the lesson. How’s an E.A gonna teach you that?

By making the volatility algorithm “visual” in nature, I can get you to focus your attention on the chart [rather than your equity], and by default get you to make trades based on the trade, not on money; you make the right trades, and the money takes care of itself!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OPEN A DEMO AND/OR LIVE ACCOUNT AT THE LMFX LINK IN THE “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION OF THE WEBSITE TITLED “OPEN TRADING ACCOUNT – DO IT NOW!”

OUR LMFX GOLD TRADING PAMM WILL BE READY AS SOON AS LMFX GETS THROUGH WITH UPGRADES TO ITS PAMM SOFTWARE! WE ARE VERY CLOSE; OPEN YOUR LIVE TRADING ACCOUNT TODAY, FUND IT, AND BE READY TO PARTICIPATE!