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Wednesday, January 31, 2018

NO WONDER THE USD IS CRAP!

“San Fran Nan’s message to working Americans.”

Over the years, I’ve only occasionally watched a “SOTU” [State of the Union] 
address; usually they’re nothing more than a laundry list of “wishful thinking” 
this year was remarkably different. In my lifetime, I don’t think I’ve ever 
witnessed a more “out-of-touch, tone deaf, America hating, average working 
American hating, traditional values hating, intolerant, cry babies”, than what 
you saw last night from DEMS, lead down the path to total irrelevancy by 
none other than their leadership, during President Trump’s address to 
Congress. 

 Once again, President Trump trolled Libtards, allowing the entire nation to
 see for themselves, the petulant, narcissistic, America-hating group that have 
“D’s” after their name; who doesn’t want higher wages? Who doesn’t want 
 more jobs in the economy? Who doesn’t want African-American & Hispanic
 unemployment levels to be at RECORD LOWS [“where were you for 8 years 
President Empty Suit”?]? Who doesn’t want lower food stamp rolls? And 
 finally, who doesn’t want greater prosperity for every American? “Well, it’s 
 pretty damn obvious who doesn’t want these things, cuz when you’re the 
 “VICTIM PARTY”, and all you got is “hate Trump” and not a damn thing 
 else … and you can’t even acknowledge greater American prosperity, cuz that
 might upset your core “tinfoil” fringe lunatics, then you need to be called out for
 what your are, and you shouldn’t even be in Congress; sorry, your behavior was 
fucking reprehensible … run for office in Venezuela”!


And my first reaction after it was over was, “Christ, no wonder the U.S. dollar
is shit … after what I just saw, I’m repulsed as an American. Please DEMS, run 
for office in 2018 & 2020 using these same tactics … I’m sure working 
Americans just love the idea you fucking hate them, and favor illegal aliens 
over U.S. citizens every day of the week! … and like the blind idiots you have
become, you walked right into President Trump’s trap, and showed the entire 
nation who you really are … and you call him stupid? … take a look in the 
mirror Chuck &Nancy”! In essence Libtards, last night you wrote the script 
for the ads against yourselves in the mid-term elections coming in 9 months 
… get used to the idea of seeing yourself in plenty of ads.

Turning to today’s market in EURUSD … a heavy day in terms of news and 
data, with the 800 lb. gorilla being the FED interest rate decision at 2 P.M. 
EST this afternoon … a more “disjointed, erratic, & psychotic” market I 
haven’t seen since the Greek crisis hit 4 years ago … straight up, straight 
down, with very little in between … rinse, repeat, run some stops, and you
have the basic outline of EURUSD trading lately, especially since the Holidays.

This week, though, has seen the “psychosis” level of EURUSD jump to the 
point, where if it gets much worse, it’s gonna need therapy. Seriously, the 20+ 
PIP “blitzes in seconds” out of nowhere are a real concern, and at least so far
this week, it’s almost impossible to ‘hang on” to any position, cuz the market 
price comes back into your position, leaving you little choice but to liquidate.

I had a phone discussion yesterday with another fund manager, who I’ve 
known for quite a while, and he was totally confused as to the nature and 
scope of today’s FX moves … and what I said was, I don’t think it’s just a 
“coincidence” or a “statistical accident” that we are seeing an increased  
frequency of 1) reversals, 2) double reversals, and/or 3) the “Flying Wedge of 
Death” [FWD]. And while I’ve identified the “non-correlated” FX pairs, 
which I now trade, that doesn’t mean they are separate and not influenced by
the “long arm” of the world’s central banks. Simply put, being non-correlated 
doesn’t mean non-manipulated … and really, simply buying/selling and 
positioning anything, you have to have a 200 PIP threshold for losses … and 
your gains? This is why you now have “The Scalper’s Algorithm: The Final 
Solution”, and accompanying addendum “The Teacup Handle Turn”.

The FED’s interest rate decision is out … no big news here, but the dollar is 
rallying … most likely cuz they got the longs in EURUSD trapped, looking 
for a dollar decline on the FED news … add to that the undeniable fact of the 
Chuckleheads in Asia bidding EURUSD higher into the Asian close, and once 
again, Mrs. Wantanabe needs another funding check from the hubby for her 
account … can it be just one big coincidence they’re almost always wrong?

Two trades today, both winners … not many algo signals today, nor many 
“Teacup Handle Turns” to wrap your arms around; the entire day has been 
a total reversal clusterfark [again], with very strong M1 spikes both up & 
down dotting the chart landscape … a very, very, tough trade. Nonetheless, the 
PAMM is up between 0.1% - 0.2% in today’s trade … and tomorrow starts 
February, so maybe all these corporate EURUSD flows analysts have been 
talking about will end as abruptly as they started, and the “Jimbo” corporate 
types will stop skewing the market will very large orders that the scumbag LP’s 
rip apart like teenagers eating a pizza … well, I can dream can’t I?

So, it’s on to a new month, and while I’m attempting to hold onto positions as 
long as I can, when I’m faced with crap like today [ADP & FED], and a 
psychotic market that puts in dozens of large spikes daily now, when the tide 
turns I’m out the door. It’s the only way to get a decent handle on risk, while at 
the same time adding yield to the PAMM. Overall, I’m pleased with our first 
full month of trading EURUSD utilizing either the “Scalper’s Algorithm”, or 
“The Teacup Handle Turn” … while not as consistently volatile [daily range, not 
intraday volatility] as the ancient pit traded Swiss Franc futures from back in 
the day [about 80%], it’s as close as we’re gonna come in the electronic trading 
realm of today … and yes, if current levels of volatility hold over the year, I still 
believe by the end of 2018, the PAMM will be up triple digits “plus” from the 
end of 2017. I’ve got all the tools I need, and finally … yes finally … I have 
figured out the market necessary to trade to achieve these goals. Bring on 
February! Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND 
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN 
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN 
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND 
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO 
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!



  

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

SANITY TAKES A RAINCHECK

“EURUSD: Testing your sanity each and every day.”

There are only 2 rules in FX; 1) check your sanity at the door, and 2) there
are no rules in FX … and as the intraday volatility picks up to levels not seen 
since the Greek crisis in EURUSD, it only makes things more insane … 
Today being a very good example.

I got to my computer screen a few minutes after the European open … I 
missed the low at 08:15 server time, and got to trading about 5 minutes later. 
And while the low today came off quickly, that’s the only thing about it that 
you could look at and say, “well, that might be a low”. No bullish engulfing 
pattern, no nada … simply a quick move of about 10 PIPS … and then the 
rocket climb upward, that saw no retracement whatsoever until we are about 
110 PIPS higher above 1.24 … “Oy is an element best avoided”!

And the speed & scope at which up spikes go higher off very small 
retracements [3 - 10 PIPS] lasting a couple of M1’s, is truly astounding … if 
you look at today’s M1 candlestick chart, there are dozens of M1 up spikes 
10+ PIPS and higher that dot the landscape … truly treacherous &
dangerous. Add to that, as I’ve said before, if you happen to buy on the uptick, 
the slippage from the scumbag LP banks is horrible … and quite frankly, even 
if you buy on the downtick, it doesn’t guarantee a decent fill, only a better 
chance at one … ditto with liquidations as well.

And here we go again with POL’S opening their Pie Hole; today’s installment 
of abject stupidity, none other than Mnuchin, who now says, “Of course, I 
absolutely favor a strong dollar over the long term”, and it’s a race to the 
downside in EURUSD… nothing like 80 PIPS down, 120 PIPS up, and now 
60+ PIPS down, with very little in between … “Any of you bigger players got 
any capital left, now that both sides of the order books have been taken out and
shot in about 3 hours”?

Meanwhile, now that we are in the New York afternoon, trading has ground 
to a halt around the 1.23850-ish area … so far, the market isn’t seeing any 
more big spikes, up or down, but a slight drift sideways to up, and the “talking 
heads” I’m sure, will now say everybody is waiting for the “State of the Union” 
address tonight with President Trump … and with the market officially up for 
the day, about 5 - 7 PIPS as I write, “hey, just another unchanged day … right”? 

There’s no way I can predict intraday volatility, just as there is no way I can
 predict when one of these asshat POLS shows up in front of a camera and 
says something stupid that roil markets … “apparently, Mnuchin owes 
somebody some money, otherwise why state the obvious? … what’s the point”?  
Simply put, volatility begets more volatility, and today is a good example of 
that … once shorts felt trapped, and we passed the early 50% retracement 
line around 1.23610 on the upside, volatility ramped higher again. Remember 
what I have always said; “he who panics first, gets to panic again later”. Not the 
best choice, obviously, when you’re getting “monkey hammered”, but better 
than waiting for far worse results. And if you weren’t participating in 
EURUSD today, trust me, things went out of control rather quickly.

A couple of trades today in this hyperbolic volatile clusterfark … neither got 
what I consider good fills on either entry or liquidation ...not that they were 
horrible, except to say they weren’t the usual “right on the money” I am 
accustomed to getting even when it’s volatile … no matter, the PAMM is up 
just a couple of bucks short of 0.1% on the day. And while I would have loved 
to capture more, this is the kind of day where about 99.99% of traders got
 ‘whacked” one way or the other, and wish they had stayed in bed … to be up 
anything in this clusterfark is a miracle, that’s how bad the price action was 
earlier. 

I have said before, but it bears repeating until I’m convinced you have it
 tattooed  on the back of your eyelids so you can see it while you sleep: 
 “successful trading begins and ends with risk … identifying it, controlling it, and 
then trying to eliminate it the best you can … only then does profit matter, but it is 
always secondary. Risk can be sharply curtailed by concentrating on “trade 
setups”, and not by traditional technical analysis or the “fun-der-mentals”; those 
only allow you to win enough to get you to come back after you make another 
deposit into your account after you got whacked, for the umpteenth millionth 
time. Think about it … no trade is worth getting whacked … why? … cuz the 
market will be here tomorrow and every biz day after, and opportunity is always 
infinite … your capital, though, is finite”. And what this means, is simple;  
“don’t chase a market … look for the setup, cuz that’s where the highest 
probability of profitable trades lie … do you end up missing some? … sure, so 
what? … would you rather get whacked and lose money, but you were right it 
was going up today”?

And while I’m not happy about the lack of setups today to get long, it is what 
it is, and we just move on to tomorrow … yes, still made money, and sure, 
there are tons who would trade places after getting whacked, but I expected 
more from today and didn’t get it. Tomorrow’s another day … back at it to slay 
the market dragon once again … I’m outta here … ‘till tomorrow mi amigos … 
Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
 OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
 “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN 
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND 
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO 
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!