TEACHABLE MOMENT

“Be careful Skippy; you know what happens when you don’t pay attention!”

It’s early still today, and tomorrow sees economic data being released in the U.K., but so far the weekly candlestick of GBPUSD [with important commentary], which is directly below, tells you all you need to know to understand this disastrous week of extremely low volatility, and the effect it’s having on the “Scalper’s Algorithm”. Take some time, please, and understand what it is you’re looking at in the chart below.

The chart above covers about 110 weeks, going back to September 2015, with the exception of the “Orange Arrow A”, which is a mistake on the chart, the 9 white arrows cover the worst volatility weeks in the last 2 years and 2 months; only one of these is a Holiday week, and that was Christmas week back in 2015, the rest all scattered throughout the year. What does it say, when this week [so far] is 20% below the worst week of the last 2 years 2 months? Well, either SHTF sometime today, or tomorrow, or this indeed will be the worst week by far in years.

Ok, so what does that mean? Well, if you remember what I wrote in the “Scalper’s Algorithm” manual, I said something along the lines of, “if you follow the algorithm, there’s “almost” no way you can’t make money over time”, and I went on to explain the “almost”. Basically 2 scenarios must play out; 1) central bank [CB] manipulation like you see in the stock indices, which have literally ruined those markets for trading, and/or most importantly 2) a lack of volatility, which places the M1 algorithm signals on top of each other. And this week, so far, this has “played out” in spades, and makes algorithm signals much less statistically advantageous to take, simply cuz the market isn’t going anywhere. It’s a back & forth “chop-fest”, with LP’s feeding on stops and front running corporate order flow … for them it’s an early Christmas … for the rest of us, it’s a clear danger signal. All you need do is look closely at the M1, and literally 5 -15 minutes go by with M1 ranges so tiny, it makes you wonder if the MT4 is malfunctioning … and then BOOM! … a 5 -25 PIP move on nothing but “vapors”. And, it is a hallmark of choppy, illiquid markets that you see this type of action, with the then noticeable lack of any follow-through … rinse, repeat, and it can be a real “account killer” cuz it inevitably leads to the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD], a professional trader’s worst nightmare. I’ve seen in my trading career, so many people get “carried out on a stretcher” from nothing days and weeks, that go “nowhere” and do nothing except get you to buy short-term highs & sell short-term lows multiple times. At the end of the day, you add it all up, and nobody can believe how much money you lost, including yourself. These 9 weeks I’ve highlighted at the start of today’s blog are the most dangerous weeks of the last 2 years 2 months!

From an algorithm standpoint, it can be summed up, quite nicely, by today’s reversal from the high … hitting a new low … everybody gets short looking for stops under 1.30800 to get them profits … and then BOOM! … here comes the nasty spikes up catching everybody off guard. What this leads to is what I mentioned yesterday or the day before; a market where the 121 & 183 EMA’s can’t “sync up” with the 5 & 9 signal generator, and the market goes up when the trend is down, and then the market goes down when the trend is up; simply put, nothing works, and the reason it doesn’t is cuz there is no daily or weekly volatility for the market to play off, and thus impact the M1 signals, and/or give us the necessary market moves to liquidate with profit before they spike the market the other way in seconds. Plainly, I’ve just described “chop”.

Looking at today’s M1, directly below, and a picture says a thousand words; 3 algorithm short signals that don’t work while the 121 & 183 EMA’s are clearly negatively sloped and telling us there is negative momentum in the market; but that doesn’t matter to a market that isn’t going anywhere … all it does is produce chop, and that usually produces losses … and by the time everybody figures out that maybe the market will go higher … it moves down and traps retail specs yet again. Traders sold the 90’s & the 80’s, covered at 00 & 10 area, and get long at the 20 area … now what?

And so, my point today is a “teachable moment” for situational awareness in volatility and how it impacts everything … and I do mean everything, we do as traders. Without it, we’re all “dead meat”!

And even looking at the worst 9 trading weeks of the last 2 years 2 months, none of them are nowhere near close [except Christmas week of 2015] to the pathetic range, so far this week here on a Thursday, of a paltry 119.8 PIPS. Something has to give here soon; all of the 9 weeks highlighted, preceded some good volatility weeks in their respective aftermath. But I will mention once again, why it is critically important to not get “whacked” in these slow weeks, and end up doing “stupid shit” chasing PIPS that aren’t coming or aren’t there cuz volatility is so low [at the moment] … trust me, it will come roaring back soon!

Two examples for you to “ponder” and think about today; the first is, “I am guaranteed a 300+ PIP range each week in GBPUSD … I’ve spoken with the trading Gods, and they have assured me 100% this is the case going forward … of course, nobody but me knows this”. Well, if this was a 100% certainty; within a few years, I would have all the money in the world from trading, simply cuz I could start at Monday’s open and position myself for whatever happens, knowing it will probably go in my profit direction until the range for the week is 300 PIPS, where I would take profits and stop trading … I couldn’t lose if I tried!

The second example is the opposite: “the trading Gods have told me GBPUSD will not have a weekly range over 120 PIPS going forward; again, I’m the only one who knows this”. Now, though, every time the market approaches either extreme of the range I take heavy positions the opposite direction and thus profit handsomely; again, within a couple years, I have all the trading money in the world.

The first example, is plainly “trees growing to the sky”, and the fact that volatility will always be there to bail you out; the second is the opposite, where you fade volatility at every opportunity. Both, when they don’t work, will kill your account, especially the first with large stop moves against you in seconds, and the second with the “drip, drip, drip” of losses accumulating as you prepare to trade the expanding weekly range, which by the way never comes!

So, the bottom line is this: “unless you are willing to literally bury your account in the “trader’s graveyard” at some point [this week, next, a year from now, what does it matter cuz it WILL happen?], you have to have the discipline and patience to “walk away” from these weeks when they start unfolding themselves to you with no action by Tuesday or Wednesday. That is the time to pay attention, and if Thursday’s or Friday’s action isn’t expanding the range to “normal” levels, you have got to back away and say no thanks”. And really, who wants to “bury”” their account?

Sadly, though, this is what happens to most traders; instead of “reading” volatility and reacting to it, they try and impose their “thinking” on it, and end up either trying to fade increases in volatility, where the stop hunts will kill you, or they’re increasing leverage looking for volatility to increase, and when it doesn’t, the illiquid trading conditions exacerbate the fill you get from the scumbag LP; in neither event do you have any chance of long-term trading success.

Specifically, I want to address what I call the “Newbie Disease”; the logic of which has as its base a totally flawed premise; namely, a very tight range will continue “tight”, so he/she can short the top of said range and buy the bottom of said range all day long for big bucks, with a stop slightly over/under the range so the potential damage is minimal. “Ummm, yea, that ain’t gonna work, cuz your stop will get pummeled unmercifully, and your risk is at least quadruple what you think it is. Worse, are those who simply ignore stops, cuz as we all know it’s in a tight range and has to come back, who 7 minutes after a 100+ PIP move against them, are staring at a 50%+ drawdown in equity of their account, and all those 1 – 3 PIP winners aren’t there to carry the day, cuz you spent them already on your “trader lifestyle”. So, you win 15 and lose 1, and you’re down 50%+ … that’s the problem with fading volatility, and thinking tight ranges will stay tight … they won’t, they don’t”!

Turning to today’s market … well now, “that escalated quickly in Japan didn’t it”? Nothing like the highest Nikkei stock index prints in over 20 years, and then 2 hours later almost 1000 points in the hole [860 to be exact]. Of course, “Peter Pan’s “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] got right on it, and by the close had rallied the index back up. Still, markets as they say, were “unsettled”.

With that said, the Nikkei getting “monkey hammered” should be Dollar bearish, and sure enough Cable is rallying from late Asia into the European open; $64,000 question is, can they extend the weekly range, or is some kind of reversal in the cards? And what about the “Brexit” talks? It looks early on like new highs are in the cards. Ummm no actually, how about a nasty reversal off the high and straight down to yesterday’s low, taking it out by a PIP or so, just to get the retail sell stops of course … and then rallying it smartly about 36 PIPS.

First trade of the day, and I’m reading the algo signals, and I get a buy signal up near the high … “OK, the high for the day so far is 1.3152-ish; the weekly high is around 1.31774 … the probability is still high that this range gets taken out; 119.8 PIPS is very, very low … at this moment, I know that if/when the market goes back up to test the high from late Asia, it has got to do something quickly … any farting around … up/down a PIP or fractions, and I’m looking at a 3-10 PIP move down in 1 second when it comes … sooner or later somebody “whacks” this stuff if it can’t sustain any rally. So, when it got above 1.3151, my thought is it has to MOVE RIGHT F-ING NOW TO NEW HIGHS AND THEN GO HIGHER STILL … if it doesn’t, it spells trouble … and guess what, we got the trouble … after failing and before the plunge, I liquidate with a meaningless, small profit. No winner-winner chicken dinner here”. Again, like yesterday, I don’t see the point in posting a pic of the trade … simply a signal of dubious value, in a tight market, about ready to reverse and go to the lows.

And then the stop-hunt induced frenzy to new lows … from which every spec in the world gets caught short and is forced to pay up. If the market could have busted 80 on the downside, I probably would have sold a small rally, but barring that, all I could see was the dreaded FWD and all its horrific manifestations. So, until something happens, there isn’t any way I’m getting sucked into this mess. It is what it is, and none of us can change it, until its time … and we don’t decide that.

Ok, I’m hearing now that the “presser” over “Brexit” is to be tomorrow morning [Friday] in Europe, between the U.K. & E.U. negotiators; coupled with economic data, this is gonna make for an interesting Friday … buckle your seatbelts … any break above 1.3177 or below 1.3057 and it could get very nasty going into the weekend.

Early afternoon in New York, and the FWD clearly present in Cable, with a few shorts getting new donkeys carved with a chainsaw, free of charge from the dealer community; after you lose 15 PIPS in 4 minutes, tell me how you plan to get it back going forward into the New York afternoon, cuz I’d really like to know “Plan B” here; especially now knowing the Brexit presser is tomorrow morning. And, like all predatory markets, SHTF early tomorrow with a data dump, and the “comedy show” of the EU vs. UK, where anything can happen. Some “fireworks” shortly after 1 P.M., and taking a look at the M1, this is what happens to stops … first the sell stops, then the buy stops … all-in-all about 40 PIPS for the round trip … If you were on the wrong side of this, good luck in making it back now. “I rest my case”.

Please don’t anybody misunderstand, I don’t like getting up in the wee hours and watching paint dry either; however, I hate losing more, so it’s wait ‘til tomorrow and see what the cat drags in, in terms of news … it is what it is. Just glancing at the computer screen, I can see that the FED’s ‘Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] is now out and bidding stocks higher … we’ll see if it holds through to the close; I guess some folks were “unsettled” after all with Japan, what with the 30+ handle range in the SP500 on the downside; Cable now sliding slightly with the rest of FX, as the panic stock selling seems to be over. Oh, won’t tomorrow be fun.

Over this coming weekend, I plan on doing the data for USDCAD; both the weekly going back to 2012, and the 8 hour from January – August 2017. When I’m done, for those interested, I’ll post it Sunday night over in the “Download Links” section of the website. View it online and/or download from my shared files folder at box.com. All files are in PDF (Adobe). Until tomorrow everybody … I’m outta here. Onward & Upward!

Pamm spreadsheet directly below.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

CABLE JOINS “THE WALKING DEAD”

“I showed him today’s M1 in GBPUSD … smart kid!”

Where do I start with this POS for today? Yea, I knew Sunday night the news calendar was backloaded to Thursday & Friday, where we should get some price movement fireworks, and I said yesterday things could … could be slow until then … but this? … “why do you have to listen to me on this? … And then abandon me when I’m asking for a little attention on price movement in my profit direction”? [Stupid aliens in another dimension!]

You know things are bad, when 6 hours into trading we got a 30 PIP range [European open] at the extremes, with “mystery ticks” galore on the sell stop bottoms; more like a 20 – 25 PIP range, and the average is 50 – 70+PIPS. Yes, people are waiting on Grandma Yellen, who speaks in the New York early afternoon … she’s retiring, what’s she gonna say other than, “please JPM or Squid … hire me as a consultant for 7 digits plus”!

One of the problems Cable has at the moment, is the abysmal HR4 “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD], since October 18, 2017 [2 weeks and counting with expanding highs, then lows, then back and forth; each time hitting yet another new high/low, and then reversing quickly]; the HR4 directly below.

Let me sum this up for position traders in 2 words; “1) Yuck, and 2) losses”. And so, until this gets obliterated, expect daily M1 activity to be very sloppy & choppy … where it literally takes 10 minutes to go down the “4 steps down, 3 steps up” routine from say 37 to 30, and 3 seconds to go from 30 to 36.

And once again, for the second day in a row, Asia & 80% of Europe do nothing, and starting about 90 minutes before the European close, here comes the short squeeze in earnest; the entire day has been nothing but a stop hunt … first on the downside with grinding action lower into a low, then BOOM!, up 3-7 PIPS literally in 2 seconds … then, as if somebody blew a whistle and said, “ok, enough … time to go the other way”!

Approximately 80% of the day, the 121 & 183 EMA’s were flat; the other 20% of the time, very slightly negatively sloped, with action in the last M30 showing a little tilt to the upside, now that price is back at the 1.3150 area. Every sell signal came when the 121 & 183 were flat, and the buy signals came when they were flat or negatively sloped. All-in-all, a crap day with tight ranges that jumped quickly and then saw any gain wiped away.

Gtrandma Yellen speaking this afternoon at 2 P.M. Eastern time … all day, I thought the lows were a buy, but the algorithm just couldn’t sustain anything long enough to get me long or short … simply put, everything was “out of sync”, and it sure looked and felt like anything you contemplated doing would be an immediate loser. In addition to that, Saudi Arabia rumors on all of the arrests against the “big wigs” has got some people very nervous … what’s real and what’s for show, and is it more serious than what appears on the surface? Too early to tell, but combined with everything else going on, traders have “stepped back” today and let the scumbag LP’s run “roughshod” over retail spec stops all day long; bottom line is this … today has been nothing short of a giant transfer of money from yesterday’s gains … banks sold the 50’s, 60’s, & 70’s, and today bought the 30’s, 20’s, all the way down to the low around 08. And really, this level had to hold, cuz if it doesn’t and we get under 1.31 again, those sell stops down to and under 1.30 come into play … and they come a lot quicker than anybody realizes when SHTF and people are caught long. So, it’s little wonder today is a big piece of kitty litter.

A legit buy signal, here in the early afternoon of New York in Cable, but I know what the algo doesn’t … namely Yellen to speak within the hour … no thanks, I got no room to give blood today.

However, earlier today, USDCAD put in the first of a series of excellent algorithm moves, the first directly below.

This is textbook Scalper’s Algorithm, buy at the white arrow and liquidate on the SAR, right on top, with both the 121 & 183 EMA’s sloping nicely positive on the pullback.

Well, here we are only a couple hours from the NYSE close, and as far as I’m concerned, a “FWD” in Cable … I hit the computer about 3:30 A.M. New York time, and Cable was at about 1.3150 … fits and starts down in a “4 step down, 3 steps” up psychotic trade that saw mystery ticks for lows, and immediate 5-7 PIP rallies that went nowhere … fourth new low, still only 40 PIPS from the extremes, sees a massive short covering rally that takes the market back up and hits a new high since I came in, up at 60, and of course it goes nowhere … as I write, back in the 40’s, not but a few PIPS from 11 – 12 hours ago. Needless to say, no trades today in Cable; not only did the algorithm components not sync up, the low for the day wasn’t “low enough” to use any of the “special situation” setups I mentioned in the manual to get long, even though the low showed a “hammer” and a “bullish engulfing pattern” on the “fat” portion of the candlestick … In the end, I simply sidestepped the FWD and did not take the “bait”.

Ok, apparently Grandma Yellen isn’t saying anything of importance, cuz no market is moving … day looks to be over, and it couldn’t come soon enough for me … what a bag of bat guano in Cable.

PAMM spreadsheet is back, directly below … Until tomorrow … I’m outta here … Onward & Upward!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

WINNING BY “DEFAULT”

“You lost the second she walked in the door; you never saw it coming, did you?”

The new “Scalper’s Algorithm” having been posted yesterday, it should dawn on readers the overriding premise; using the algorithm you “win” by default. Wait … what? It’s really that simple, cuz in the final analysis, after you read it, think about it, and then come to understand it, all of the trades have as their common thread, lowering risk to the utmost possible [potential loss], while at the same time initiating a position for the highest possible reward [potential profit], in the shortest time possible.

So, the main premise of the “Scalper’s Algorithm” is to avoid risk, cuz if it can do that, all that’s left is profit … we don’t know how much, it could be a PIP or two, or it could be a whole lot more; point is, initially it’s going in our profit direction, and that places us in the enviable position of being “up” on a trade right from the start … now, we are in the “driver’s seat”, and have a whole lot more flexibility than everybody else in the market. “I simply don’t spend my time thinking about where the “big move” is; I spend my time following the algorithm and looking for the “setups” that give me the highest profit with the lowest risk, cuz that is where my advantage lies. All the elements in the manual will allow you to do this, if you can follow them and then implement the trade. Will it always work? Of course not, nothing is 100% in trading, but I like my chances on each and every trade cuz of the very high statistical probability of potential profit built into the position. I make money cuz I focus on risk … I let the actual profit take care of itself”!

Does that mean every turn in the market the algorithm captures? “No, our parameters have to “setup” correctly, so as to give us the highest probability of potential profit in the trade … NEWS FLASH: not all trades are equal, or have the same probability of success. Why take marginal positions when throughout the day we will more than likely get numerous valid signals”? This doesn’t mean, that every trading day I back the “Brinks truck” up to the backdoor to haul away all the money … trading does not produce linear results … slow days [like today] & “doji days can present headaches at times, but the signals will still be there. You have to accept what the market gives you, and not try and “force” your will on it … that you will never do and succeed”.

Bottom line is this: up and until the daily candlesticks in any of the 5 recommended markets starts to look like this directly below, the algorithm will produce consistent, profitable signals.

Here, in this “doji” example of daily candlesticks, is where our greatest “tail risk” lies on the “normal distribution” probability bell curve, simply cuz the 121 & 183 EMA’s will be flat and on top of each other, and M1 signals will result from spikes more often than not; both not conducive to profits. And while the daily candlestick doesn’t have to look exactly like the “picture perfect” doji at the end of the day, all it really takes is for the 121 & 183 EMA’s to be “flat”, and about 2/3 of the time all the signals generated by the M1 will come on sharp spikes that go literally nowhere minutes later; you’ll need the “ones that work” just to pay off the 2/3 that don’t, simply to “breakeven”. “Well hell, if my objective is to breakeven, after a whole bunch of trades are made when the 121 & 183 are flat, then I can do that just by sitting here and doing nothing with zero risk”.

Turning to today’s market … looking over news flows last night, it’s a very, very light reporting schedule today through Wednesday in Cable, and then Thursday sees “Brexit” talks with a presser [could be interesting], and then Friday, the proverbial economic “data dump”, with a whole host of stats being released that should “shake things up” in Cable going into the weekend … looks very much like we might see dull trading until Thursday … not much for the U.S either. Cable below 1.30600 and the market has got some potential, real sell stop problems facing it down to 1.30 and below… be very careful getting long below that level this week, until stops are cleared out … bounces up could be met with some “nasty” selling, if it plays out.

Coming in from Asia early this A.M., very small daily ranges throughout the entire complex, except for USDJPY, where President Trump is visiting and commenting all things China, N.Korea, S. Korea, and of course Japanese trade; other than that, it’s a “snooze-fest” … nonetheless, some slight upward slopes to the 121 & 183 to get us long on a couple of trades … neither really went anywhere, directly below the 2 trades from early today.

 I’m in the first trade 5 minutes, and then cable puts in the tiniest M1 I think I’ve ever seen during the European session; this is a giant “red flag” to liquidate, which I did. Second trade is simply the market moving higher, plum very slightly rising over yellow, expanding the day’s range through the old high, and I’m looking for some kind of spike to either 1) fail, or 2) take out the previous week’s high at 1.31330. Sure enough, we get the first, and I liquidate on the spike up.

What I want you to focus on today are 2 very critical components of the algorithm, that did their job perfectly today; 1) it was a slightly “up” morning”, and the 2 moves higher both had mini-blow off spikes up, which if you happened to be long, you had to liquidate, cuz THAT’S WHAT WE DO ON SPIKES IN OUR PROFIT DIRECTION, and 2) when the 121 & 183 EMA’s go flat, “just back away Skippy and come back when there are slopes”, cuz this means more than 2/3 of the M1 signals will come on spikes that go nowhere. [And I know what some of you are thinkin’: “well, I think I’m good enough to see the SHARP retracements coming and get out before they happen”. MY RESPONSE: “hahahaha”.

One other thing; my volumes today were very light. That stems from almost “zero” happening in the Asian session into the European open; these very tiny ranges are “ripe pickings” for reversals, double reversals, and worse, the infamous account killer, the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD]. Specifically, in GBPUSD, you really have to be alert to these phenomena when the daily range is under 35 PIPS coming into the European session [it was in the 20’s today] … with normal trade volumes, getting “cut up” early, with little prospects for making it back if things continue, it behooves you to cut your leverage. Don’t worry, things will be “heating up” on the leverage front soon enough … why waste dry gun-powder on “nothing ranges”?

As we approached the last 90 minutes of the European session today, I don’t know whether it was because of the FED Pie Hole speaking, or just general Dollar weakness, that managed to rally pretty much every pair higher … what I do know, is that as Europe closes, with no news to speak of anywhere that I can see, there isn’t any way I get stuck in Cable in the New York afternoon … that is a recipe for disaster, cuz what I know and the algorithm doesn’t, is that time is in short supply and ticking lower, and if you get hit with a loser, you got no way of getting it back today … at this point in the day, I don’t care what the 121 & 183 EMA’s are doing cuz I have no position … I can see already the market is slowing to a crawl, so whatever algo signal you get, I’m saying you got no time and no fuel for any gain of significance … sure, I could be wrong, and sometimes you get surprise moves in the afternoon New York session… 90%+ of the time, you don’t get Mr. Jack Squat. Very tiny profits today … just taking what the market gives us in the European session.

Really a strange day, though, when you consider the entire Asian session and about 80% of the European session don’t do anything … and then boom! … everybody starts hitting the buy button within the last 90 minutes … and now New York? … you’ll be lucky to see a 10 PIP range by the close at 8 P.M. This type of trading activity is rare, but eventually, even the dumbest of moves shows up and manifests itself.

PAMM spreadsheet is back, directly below … starting a new ledger from today on, as I’m now using the Scalper’s Algorithm going forward. Until tomorrow … I’m outta here … Onward & Upward!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

SPECIAL SUNDAY UPDATE: SCALPER’S ALGORITHM RELEASED!

 My security guard Butch says, “It’s about time!”

Rest easy Butch, and take a deep breath before you whack me some, it’s all available in the “Download Links” section over in the right-hand column. Some days, there’s no pleasing these testy security professionals!

As always, questions and/or comments, write me at traderzoogold@gmail.com and I’ll get back to you with a personal response ASAP; enjoy everybody!. Onward & Upward!

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

ANOTHER NFP FRIDAY … OH JOY! [“RUH ROH!”]

“Well, only if you’re dumb enough to trade news!”

Another NFP Friday comes and goes, and with it the sad reality that for some traders who just can’t help themselves and do it anyway, they end up trading “news”, and get to watch once again buy/sell stops get brutally beaten by the huckster LP’s. “At what point do you “walk away” and refuse to get your donkey kicked for nothing”? But, the truly great news from the Department of Unicorns & Fairy Tales, is that 88,500 bartenders and waiters/waitresses got hired last month … [wait … what?] … at the same time almost 1 million people left the labor force in the month … “does this mean 911,500 aspiring waiters/waitresses got rejected by Applebee’s & Chili’s? Do these two “darlings” of the restaurant world have stock prices like Amazon or Alphabet [Google]?”

Maybe they all went to work in Britain, under some kind of “Export Act” … “you know, like the one Obama & Cankles did with Uranium going to Canada, then Europe, then …”. Could explain Cable’s jump, yet again taking out shorts via buy stops, before the inevitable drop back to reality. Need I remind readers from previous algorithm’s; large spikes up or down need to be liquidated in your profit direction, at the slightest hint of retracement. It simply doesn’t matter what happens next!

Well, “my guy who knows a guy, who knows another guy” proves once again to be right on the money; internet is back 100%, a full 3 days early. That means, of course, I’ll start trading the PAMM Monday … why wait for Wednesday? “I’m not sure if it was the Soprano’s crew of Sil & Pauly Walnuts I had flown down here to camp out in front of his house, just as a “gentle” reminder of what I was told, that did the trick or not … but hey, results are results, right? Still, I’m wondering why Sil & Pauly “insist” on going deep-sea fishing over the weekend with me, and buying rope and cinder cement blocks at Home Depot? Hmmm, it’s probably to keep the beer cold underwater … yea, that’s the ticket”!

“Scalper’s Algorithm” will be finished this weekend and posted over in the “Download Links” section in the right-hand column, sometime Sunday afternoon or evening. I’ve still got some work to do with it, but it’s minor in nature. Just a reminder to Newbies and new visitors to the website, ALL OF MY FILES are in my “shared file” box at box.com and are available to everybody, free of charge, to either view online or download to your device, in PDF (Adobe). Whichever of the 5 recommended markets you trade, it works and works very well … if you can follow the rules and directions, you’ll make a “shipload” of money over time. How much? It’s all in the manual, and I recommend everybody … yes, even those who have been longtime readers/clients … everybody needs to read it “front to back” the first time through, and then if need be, go back to sections you want to think about in more depth.

In addition to the manual, there will also be the full raw data for GBPUSD, and ½ the data for GBPJPY, titled as Appendices to the “Scalper’s Algorithm” posted as well. For those interested in the raw data, it is stored in these files. Also, in the days and weeks ahead, I’ll be cataloging and posting data for all 5 markets. It’s a “shipload” of data and work, and I need some more time to get Cousin It to get the data in the spreadsheets. 

“8^th grade graduation picture … hey, it’s all we got!”

“Really, I don’t know what the problem is … I’m paying him $0.95 per hour, letting him sleep in the garage, and I even got him a new set of combs! … c’mon, for cryin’ out loud, get it done, will ya”? [Truth be revealed, he hasn’t been the same since Maria washed away his set of rubber ducks out of the back “cement pond” … yes, heartbreak.]

“Customer service is his middle name!”

Longtime readers are probably wondering where the other member of the -vegas “staff” is these days; well, chief of Staff Milton Waddums [pictured above, at his spacious desk, right before Hurricane Maria] is recovering nicely at the island Sanitarium [they used to call these “nut houses”, but that is so 20^th century pejorative … “the Mrs. prefers the term “recovery house”, so we’ll go with that”!]; after Maria wrecked his red stapler, he kinda went into a “trance”, mumbling about how “… burning down the building or something”. He’ll be back soon contributing something … what, I dunno, but something!

In any event, end of week Friday humor aside, when you are finished, if you have any questions or comments you’d like to share, please email me and I’ll get back to you ASAP with a personal response. For complete Newbies, please demo the algorithm until you know what it is you’re doing … that means picking a market from one of the five, becoming familiar with the MT4, and then making some PIPS each day, before you put real money into an account and start. Until Sunday when I post … Onward & Upward!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

CABLE GOES “SPLAT”!

“Err, it looked really good a second ago!”

How many months have the BOE [Bank of England] “hacks’ been barking that a rate increase is “in the cards” real soon? And so, making sure that nobody in the civilized world didn’t know it was coming, meaning of course banks are short and retail specs are long, here comes the BOE today with a rate increase, that surprised nobody, but nonetheless crucified a few shorts first via some “buy stops” … and then the “sure to go higher” Cable ice cream cone fell out of the kid’s hand and went … SPLAT! … on the ground.

“I dunno, but the words “buy the rumor, sell the fact” come to mind rather quickly”. Blame quickly shifted to the two dissenters, in the 7 – 2 vote for higher rates, thus denying a 9 – 0 tally many FX “analysts” [that would be former traders who can’t trade] considered necessary for a “rate hike cycle” going forward into the months and years ahead.

But as history has shown with GBPUSD, getting ahead of the curve is a dangerous proposition … “I guess the analysts forgot this part … however, the market reminded them today”! … none other than the BOE itself has produced a couple of interesting charts [via ZH] that prove my point. Directly below, the first is market rate hike expectations going all the way back to 2009, and quite literally shows that every quarter analysts got it wrong, since today’s rate increase is the first in 10 years.

“Ok, so we’re all wrong 8 years in a row … I don’t think that’s a “trend”, do you?

Proving once again, that every time you leave the rake in the yard, and then go out in the grass to play, you step on the rake [again] and hit yourself in the face, I present the second chart, which were analyst’s expectations back in March of this year.

So, with everybody convinced, thanks to the “smartest-guys-in-the-room”, that rates in the U.K. got no place to go but up … ergo, Cable has to … just frickin’ has to … go higher … it didn’t. “Honey, cancel that red Porsche order; I’ll be over at the Kia dealer … no, not the new ones, the used ones”!

The point I want to drive home today, outside of the fact the interest rate announcement was an event to avoid, is simply to reiterate that trading [especially a non-correlated market like GBPUSD] has nothing to do with reality, and everything to do with perception; more specifically, how “perceptions” in the market ebb & flow like flood waters. As I point out in the new “Scalper’s Algorithm” manual in detail, the psychological makeup of a non-correlated market has in it the “normal” collective behavior of “fear & greed” which feed it constantly, and is the same today as it was 500 years ago when Sokyu Honma traded rice warehouse receipts. All of this is “stripped” away in correlated, manipulated markets, as the manipulators will not allow it; what you end up with is “speed of light … crickets”, with no chance to get in.

There are 4 markets that I have identified as “non-correlated”; in order of preference, 1) GBPUSD, 2) EURUSD, 3) USDCAD, and in the non-dollar crosses 4) EURGBP. While it is true, that to a certain extent the “Loonie” [USDCAD] is seen as a commodity currency via the crude oil market, that correlation is more medium and/or long-term, and not day-to-day, tick for tick. There is also one market that is lightly correlated in the non-Dollar crosses and that is GBPJPY; here, we suffer some correlation that is offset by much higher intraday volatility in the pair. If you’re going to trade it, cut your leverage some and give yourself a little more room, or else random order flow will take you out too quickly. All-in-all, there are 5 markets; AUDUSD, NZDUSD, & EURJPY didn’t make the “cut” cuz they don’t have consistent enough day-to-day “intraday” volatility. USDMXN didn’t make it either cuz the “net” costs to trade it are too high.

Some might be surprised that EURGBP made the list; and while you can say that the Pound rallied/fell today right along with the Euro, that type of correlation has no “causation” other than general U.S. Dollar strength or weakness. It would be like saying that on days when the sun comes up Cable moves …wonderful correlation, but what does it mean and represent? [Hint: Nothing!] Another consideration for EURGBP, is the fact that a ± PIP in EURGBP translates into an almost 50% higher Dollar value versus GBPJPY, for a PIP gained or lost; that kind of changes the dynamic of the cross!

I’ll have more on the new manual tomorrow … right now, I’m downing an icy cold Corona with lime … doctor says I need more vitamin C in my diet … you can’t argue with science, can you? And, last time I checked, vitamin C is water soluble, so no matter how much you take, you can’t really have too much! Oh, the wonders of science.

Dog says, “blah blah yada yada” let’s go! … until tomorrow … I’m outta here.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

OCTOBER 2017: LOWEST EQUITY VIX EVAHHHHH!

“Umm, I dunno … quiet as a manipulated stock market?”

With “crazy” October now in the books, Zero Hedge makes it official; October 2017 was the ‘QUIETEST MONTH EVER” in the history of the U.S. stock market, as measured by VIX. When you consider that October is historically the most volatile month of the year, that’s saying something. From my vantage point, though, “don’t sell the FED manipulators short … there’s still plenty of months ahead of us to see it go lower still. Hell, 5 years from now, when the VIX is at 0.97 with record short spec open interest in VIX futures, you may look back and pray for the “wild month” of October 2017 … I’m just sayin’, it can get worse if you’re looking for volatility from this rotting carcass of a trading market”. I’m simply amazed anybody with an account still looks at this group to trade … the “handwriting” has been on the wall for months; both the Dow30 & the SP500 are a “ghost” of their former selves.

To give you an idea how bad things have gotten, in 2011, the average 3 month daily volume in the SP500 e-mini futures contract was approximately 2.6 million contracts a day; yesterday it was a few thousand over 1 million, and many days it falls well below 1 million. So, it isn’t only the gold market traders have fled, indices volumes are down over 60%+ from just 6 years ago.

Well, this is great news! … if you’re a central banker who wants things quiet … you know, cuz it’s in the public interest to have and maintain a very quiet stock market that only nudges higher during the night in Asia, and then doesn’t do Mr. Jack Squat during the New York day. Mainstream Wall Street [JPM, Squid, etc. … round up the usual suspects] loves it, and just where do you think Grandma Yellen goes when she retires next year? To ask the question is to answer it … sadly.

Which is one of the reasons, in the new “Scalper’s Algorithm” manual out at the end of this upcoming weekend, and before I start trading again next Tuesday night / Wednesday morning, I go to great detail in the “Introduction” to explain my reasoning in abandoning the equity indices. Well, you just got another dose of “manipulator pie” handed to you in October, and it’s only going to get worse cuz they ain’t ever going to give up control of the stock market in the years ahead … unless the FED is abolished. “Ohhh, be still my beating trader heart … I can dream can’t I?”

And another thing … since I’ve been running around the island counting cloud formations [“I think I see a technical pattern up there”.] … I don’t know which is more enjoyable to watch after 5 – 6 weeks in the social wilderness: Hollywood Libtards eating their own, or Cankles attempting to remain relevant. “Who knew I’d miss the internet so much”!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

ALMOST THERE, PART DEUX

“Government official in charge of Island electrical grid repair.”

What I know about modern telecommunications theory & practice you could put on the head of a pin and still have plenty of room left over … ditto for running an electric utility. Life has almost … almost … returned to normal for us here at trading central, in the dark depths of the Caribbean, where the “rich, carpet-bagging, ex-Pat Americans" [unless they live on the wrong side of the tracks with island natives] enjoy electricity, water, cell phone service, and almost 100% internet. Meanwhile, on other parts of the island, it’s still a “train wreck” with very little being done, while people still stand in line for 4 -7 hours in the hot sun with umbrellas to buy a bag of ice [and no, I’m not exaggerating].

“So, Sgt. Schultz, you think you can bypass the graft, bribery, corruption, and influence peddling that totally dominates the Caribbean from Bermuda to Puerto Rico [God, what a frickin’ mess], all the way down to Trinidad & Tobago”? Of course, the answer is a resounding NO, simply cuz the Oligarch families who run things wouldn’t dream of it; and why should they? Islanders keep returning the same corrupt Pols into power every election, so why should things change?

Today we had internet, except from about 3 A.M. to about 6 A.M.; this of course is the lowest load peak time for use on the island except for “dingbat” trader types [“wait … what”?], so if you’re going to take the internet down to add further cells for coverage, this is the time to do it. Put ‘em up during the day, test them at night, then add them to the system in the wee hours when everybody is asleep.

I have it on good authority, that the system will be 100% functional by next Tuesday night … “Ok, it is what it is, and we got no choice but to wait … if you had told me this the day after the destruction when I was looking at an island in total ruins, I would have put the probability of this happening at less than 1%, it was that bad. So, between 6 -7 weeks of down time is nothing short of a miracle. Seriously, hats off to private enterprise for responding and getting the phone system and internet going again”. Meanwhile, government diddles while most of the poor islanders suffer. This is an object lesson of the failings of government to provide necessary life services to anybody … and you Libtards want single payer health care with the government in charge … sorry, you are delusional. The dirty little secret is it never is the “services”; they want control over people’s lives … every facet, from cradle to grave.

"Scalper’s Algorithm" manual almost finished … will be done by the end of the week, and then released over in the “Download Links” section; I’ve had a full 6 weeks of uninterrupted research and writing on it, so if you’re looking for a “silver lining” from Hurricane Maria, this manual is it. More than likely, I would have needed 6 months if I were trading to do the job. Basically, there are 5 Non-Correlated markets [or in the case of GBPJPY, lightly correlated] I’ve identified to trade with the algorithm; the best is GBPUSD, followed by EURUSD, and finally USDCAD; if you want crosses, more volatile GBPJPY, and much less volatile [relatively speaking] EURGBP. All manual examples, for brevity, are with GBPUSD. From “The Tunnel Method”, there are some subtle but powerful differences, and there is an entirely new indicator; remember, this is for “scalping”, which I define as round turn trades made within an hour.

It’s nice to be “somewhat” back, and by next Tuesday night, “the guy who knows a guy, who knows another guy” says internet will be 100%. I tend to believe him for 3 reasons; 1) every day, connection times are growing longer and uninterrupted, 2) he’s always been “spot on” in the past about things like this, and 3) I’m clinging to the “hope rope” and want my internet back 24/7! 

Until tomorrow everybody, when I’ll be back with another post; “you shall no longer be in the wilderness, as I am back now”! [“Umm, why did the dog just roll over, put his paws over his eyes, and moan? Me neither … it’s a total mystery”!]

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!