website header 2

website header 2

Friday, August 18, 2017

ERASE ALL HISTORY; IT UPSETS SNOWFLAKES

“Liberal logic easily explained!”

The country has hit ABSOLUTE peak idiocy; “yes, by all means, ban all history that’s “uncomfortable”, burn books you don’t like and think people shouldn’t read, only allow credentialed elite liberals with the right indoctrination and pedigree to speak, use violence to curb speech you don’t like cuz you disagree with it; make all women wear Cankles “Captain Kangaroo” dress coat and fat pants and/or Mao jackets, only allow the most egregious hypocrites on the planet to mandate social behavior via their utter immorality and debauchery, and by all means ban Christianity cuz Christians mostly have morals while you don’t, and you don’t like that cuz it makes your secular humanism seem wrong”.

In a sane world, you would simply laugh out loud, and demand psychiatric evaluations of “nut jobs” like Nancy Pelosi, who said yesterday with a straight face that all Confederate statues in the Capitol should be removed at once cuz they’re “offensive” … “maybe somebody should remind Ms. Dingbat, that just a couple of short years ago she was “Speaker of the House” and didn’t do a damn thing to eliminate said statues that are sooooooooooooo offensive; why not? And where were the “Congressional Black “milk-the-taxpayer-for-free-money” Caucasians? How come they never complained, or hit the nearest TV camera to explain their pain … hmmmm”? Of course, we all know the answer and it’s simply SJW bullshit … if it weren’t for double standards, liberals wouldn’t have any.

And through all of this planned charade by Libtard Nation, what do we learn? Well, we learn that the guy who organized the march by the Neo-Nazi’s was an Obama supporter and organizer … surprise! … and we learn the girl next door who got arrested for admitting she helped pull down the statue, is a committed communist supporter of Kim Jong Un, a member of the WWP [World Workers Party] that actively promotes the destruction of the U.S. by any means, and is a staunch socialist and anti-capitalist; and you thought this was spontaneous? … surprise! …. And we also learn that no matter what you say or do, condemning the violence and everything else that went on, liberals and the MSM will constantly and forever continue to “shift the goalposts” to a new “outrage dujour” starting with the next news cycle. Nothing is ever enough, and when it is, they simply erase all memory and move on. EXIT QUESTION: “But … but … what about Russia? Oh, that’s so yesterday. And the real crime by Trump in all of this bullshit? It’s calling out ANTIFA as a domestic terrorist organization and the thugs in it … the Left’s newest social darlings, with all the morality of Robespierre of French Revolution fame, who upon closer inspection, was himself guillotined he was such a louse … oh, the horror to be publicly outed”!

Cuz they think [Libtard Nation, that is], that they have all of the superior “moral authority”; they always do, and that makes everything Ok in their book. You can beat innocent people up, stop free speech, burn & loot others private property, all because the end justifies the means. And the most sickening thing in all of this to me? The spineless Republicans who run for cover and shake at the altar of liberals; and that would be the usual band of suspects from the House & Senate, but mostly the publicity hounds in the Senate like Graham, McCain, Corker, Flake, and some other douche bags as well. While I am sickened by the sheer ignorance and stupidity of the Left and Democrats in general, I detest RINO’s for their utter hypocrisy and levels of deceit [repeal ObamaCare anyone?].

Last night, I got an email from an old client/reader from way back, and I haven’t heard from him in a while, but he sent me an interesting email that I read, re-read, and went through all of the charts he attached. Basically, cutting to the chase, he’s telling me that after dissecting the “Kumo Cloud”, and comparing it with my first published algorithm called “Tunnel Trading”, that it’s basically the same thing”! And he wraps it all up by telling me, “welcome to back to the future”!

Now, 1) I’m a lot more proficient with computers, MT4, and coding than I was back then, 2) markets 15 years ago had much higher spreads and trading conditions that were terrible in terms of “net” cost, and 3) for the most part, “pits” still ruled the world. However, he showed me my data that I used back then, modified it to use it in the M1 time period, and then used ‘Square of Nine’ profit points in the trade that coincide with Fibonacci numbers; if you look at the rules I’ve got today, entries/exits would be very close, but that my original work stills stands as better! And he had a spreadsheet to prove it! And while he enjoys and likes my work and research, he still claims “ain’t nothin’ better” than what you gave me 15 years ago!

Well, what can I say … stayed up late last night anyway to see if stocks tanked [they didn’t … yawn], and while watching USDJPY & SP500 out of the corner of my eye, took a good look at what he sent me. So, over the weekend, I’m gonna reintroduce all of you to my original “Tunnel Trading Method” on Sunday night, for viewing online and/or download in PDF. 15 years ago for example, USDJPY had the low, low spread of 4 full PIPS, EURUSD was 4 PIPS, & GBPUSD was 5 full PIPS; you simply had to trade over longer time periods to defeat the spread, so I originally developed and modified it for use with the HR1 [one hour] candlestick. We don’t need to do that any longer, cuz of course we now have the lowest “net” cost in the Biz at about 0.004 PIPS for a round turn trade via Turnkey.

I can tell you, there are some subtle differences and there are similarities; some will like the “Kumo Cloud” better, and some will gravitate to “The Tunnel Method”. The “Cloud” & the “Tunnel” act basically as the same thing, but in the “Tunnel Method”, there are bands for taking profits as the market rallies or drops … it’s super easy to follow, and it got so popular back on Forex Factory back then, it had over 200,000 followers before I had to scale back answering questions about it cuz I was getting hundreds of emails a day; I simply had to stop going there cuz people would get mad at me for not spending my entire day and night answering questions. So, what I’ll be doing is modifying it for the M1 for use in USDJPY & EURJPY, although it can be used in any FX pair with either 5 digit or 3 digit pricing, and it will be available Sunday night sometime.

Turning to today’s trading … we’re all SP500 traders today … overnight action very light and choppy after a quick selloff of USDJPY on the European open that saw the pair go to the 109 area for a test and a run of some sell stops … mission accomplished, and now time to chop and wait and see if the other “shoe” can drop and take the selloff lower still at or near the open in New York. Doesn’t look like it, as no doubt the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] is out in full force today [like last Friday] to make sure the weekend papers aren’t filled with sell panic.

But, as I have said before, a rally at the open is the worst thing that can happen to this stuff, meaning that every professional trader in the world knows the selling isn’t over until you get capitulation on the open or during the early part of the trading day. And on que, right before the European close on a Friday, here comes political news that blows the living hell out of every short position for the last 8 hours, and fills stops at God knows where, and leaves some very ugly marks on traders who got caught.

I started the European day wondering when this was going to happen, but we got a 30 PIP slide right at the opening European bell; even after some lousy rally attempts, the tone was negative and traders were out for blood … only blood that got spilt was their own; not only was there no sell signal to go on, but the move down was a struggle like yesterday. At what point, does the tsunami of dealer buying wipe some shorts away … well, didn’t have long to wait for that “well placed” Bannon rumor to hit the market … gosh, what a coincidence it comes right as Europe closes … probably nothing [WTF].

But as usually is the case, the problem here for traders is logistics … there simply is no way you can safeguard this kind of action we are seeing on a regular basis … yes, I passed on some short trades earlier cuz I didn’t want to get caught in this nightmare of getting filled on a buy order in a mini melt up … there simply isn’t enough volatility to make this kind of “hit” back anytime soon. There isn’t anything “normal” about trading anymore … these spikes come out of nowhere and catch either long or shorts over extended, and the stops get run and filled at the extreme. And now, after yesterday’s very rare double reversal, today we get a reversal from almost 100 PIPS … and you wonder why I’m cautious about putting on large numbers with stops? Pluhleeze! This is nuts, is what it is; and of course, as you’d expect, once the high of the day is taken out at 55, it’s a straight drop of 15+ PIPS before you can say, “Wha”? Simply put, “mission accomplished” from whoever it was with more money than I’ll ever see, shoving USDJPY into buy stops to take the other side, and not only cover longs but get short, which is more than likely the reason for the stop hunt. What’s next now for today, new lows?

And now the market finds itself hostage to not only the SP500, but politics as well … before, you couldn’t get an uptick to save your life; a little bottoming action, a change in short term momentum, and BAM!! … oh, so sorry, you short? … what looked like gold now turns into bat guano in less than a second, and you can attribute it all to “The Golden Rule”; he who has the gold makes the rules … now, you can’t get a down tick to save your life. This is why lately, aside from the slippage we’ve experienced the last 2 days which pisses me off greatly, I’ve been extremely careful about trades, especially with any kind of size that can see sizeable losses … you simply have to realize who’s long, who’s short, and when do the stops get set off to get the dealers out … just when you think you got the trade of a lifetime on, it changes in less than a second on news … sometimes bullshit news [like today] … and you think the rumor was coincidental to the European close? Ha, what a joke … well placed, well timed, and pre-planned in advance to catch shorts off guard and make them pay. Thanks, come again!

Here in early afternoon, it’s tough to tell if the market “used up” all the buying power for the day, or whether there is anything left … the problem is compounded cuz it’s Friday, and people need to adjust positions for the weekend, and if stocks start to slide again, who the hell knows what happens next. You certainly can’t just sit there and say, “oh well, it’ll come back”!, and then it doesn’t. And if you happened to get caught in that clusterfark, there isn’t any way to get the PIPS back … not a chance in hell … lose 40+ PIPS in a second on multiple lots, and it’s a B.I. Itch making it back … yea, there’s a reason I’m wary of this stuff lately, cuz it isn’t acting “normal”; all we get are FWD’s, massive reversals with huge spikes from hell, and yesterday’s double reversal, which I hope is not a precursor of things to come. Start injecting Pols into this, along with rumors, and it’s a volatile mix of wampum explosives ready to be set off. It would certainly help, if markets could regain some semblance of normal activity, but it’s something you have to deal with if you want to keep trading for a living.

Late afternoon, and as I thought highly likely earlier, the SP500 doesn’t have enough “buy power” off the Bannon rumor to keep it higher … certainly, it’s nice to see stock indices have higher volatility, and that keeps things interesting in USDJPY [our stock indices proxy], but does every damn day have to be a FWD or some combination of crazy reversals on vicious spikes? All told, only one trade today, a profitable small gain … a very small range to start the day, things picked up around 90 minutes before the NY open … I assumed today would see stock indices “take the lead” in terms of trading, and didn’t think it was likely USDJPY would see much of a range and/or trading opportunity unless stocks suddenly got slaughtered starting in Asia … that didn’t happen, so nothing to do until New York stocks were set to open … that said, USDJPY shaved 30 PIPS out of the box, and it was rather dead until the New York open … early action had me very nervous to be short, and the reason was the price action in the market; the snap back retracements up were a hell of a lot faster than the drops down, with only the spikes down providing any comfort if you were short, and of these, pretty much all of them came back in a 3 steps down, 2 up fashion … unless stocks were going to go “Thelma & Louise” on a break of 2420 to the downside, I thought all along both markets were getting “set up” … I’m not some kind of hero looking to pick a bottom, so I waited until conditions improved and also wanted an algorithm signal before I got long … I did get that, and the market immediately went up for us … when it started to come back quickly, I liquidated, figuring there are more of these if we can just not see stocks get creamed any more today. We were coming up off a correction down, and I’m debating whether to get long, wondering what the Europeans were gonna do with about 10 minutes to their close; would they be buying or selling USDJPY and/or the SP500? And BOOM!, the Bannon news, and we take off like a rocket straight up catching shorts in a complete “death liquidity trap”; if you have to buy into this, you want to talk about slippage? Anyway, one trade … cuz after that both the stock market and USDJPY had pretty much used up all the oxygen necessary to lift prices even higher … now, all that’s left is trouble. Of course, it’s better than losing money, and no slippage today from the scumbag LP, so that’s helpful, but the chance for a good gain out the door with the Bannon rumor cuz we weren’t long at that point; still, would have liked to make more in profit, but when the “setup” for any trade [until the one I took] is rotten, you just have to wait. So, I’ll take the small gain and be back on Monday.

We got about an hour to the close, and if you look at a chart, once the panic spent itself with a new high [which was a stop hunt for sure, nothing more], it’s been nothing but down, to where we simply sit doing nothing … the market can’t even manage a 3 PIP rally, and now the pressure is on down to the most recent break in the 109.200 area, and nobody knows just how low it can go if stocks decide to break again. First the shorts get crucified, now it’s time for the longs to suffer … all of these markets have been a B. I. Itch to hang onto anything longer than a few minutes, with changes in sentiment and direction fast and extremely wicked, and today is no different.

I had planned on getting the PAMM spreadsheet back up today, but I spent all my time last night looking over my friend’s email with “The Tunnel Method” results and charts he sent me … I’ll post it Sunday night when I upload “The Tunnel Method” into the “Download Links” section of the website.

Beach time! … the dog and I are outta here … until Sunday night.

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Thursday, August 17, 2017

A COUNTRY FILLED WITH ROBESPIERRES

“America 2017 … A country filled with intolerant Leftists!”

I’ve about had it with the Left in the U.S., where everybody is Hitler, everybody who disagrees with them is a racist, homophobe, sexist bigot; where everybody is “offended” by shit you would have laughed out loud at 2 years ago. Well, time to add me to the list, cuz I’M OFFENDED & I DEMAND SOMEBODY DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT!

So, here are my list of grievances: 1) I want all office buildings, roads, schools, post offices, and everything else in West Virginia that’s got ex-Senator Robert Byrd’s name on it PURGED from public view; after all, he was a KKK “Kleagle” back in the day, and as racist as they come … oh, and he was a DEMOCRAT Leftist morons, 2) I demand that the Left’s darling, one Franklin Delano Roosevelt [FDR] be purged from the history books as a racist as well; he interned Japanese Americans in WWII, and appointed Hugo Black [KKK member] to the Supreme Court … how F-ing racist is this?, 3) a guy, a serial rapist who forced himself onto a White House intern and was unfortunately President, who made racist jokes with Ted Kennedy about your beloved “The One”, and whose wife said young black men were “predators” … I want them banned from all cable TV shows as sexist and racist, 4) I want Planned Parenthood banned from the U.S., not only because they KILL BABIES AND SELL THEIR BODY PARTS like a NAPA store sells auto parts, but also because the founder of Planned Parenthood, one Margaret Sanger, founded Planned Parenthood to kill off blacks in urban, poor neighborhoods. She wanted to eradicate blacks Libtards, and if that doesn’t make her racist Planned Parenthood a societal outcast, what the hell does?, 5) every Stalinist Libtard that demands I live my life like a fruitcake needs to STFU or get a knuckle sandwich if you even think about getting in my face, cuz I grow weary of your utter bullshit lies and faux outrage over Confederate statues that have been standing for, in many cases, over a hundred years and you didn’t utter diddly squat … not even for a second, about your hurt feelz, when Obama was in the WH … so, STFU and go away already, and finally 6) I demand the editors of the Washington Post be arrested and prosecuted for “inciting violence & riots” [a federal crime] for their editorial today calling for their ANTIFA nutjobs to “start throwing rocks” … do you need any more proof than this regarding the Totalitarian Left, that has come completely unglued over losing an election, and is trying to destroy the country? Frankly, anybody that reads this “rag” should have their head examined.

Turning to today’s markets … seriously, today’s trading in everything is a clusterfark mess; “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD], double reversals with wide ranges [this happens maybe 2 – 3 times in 5 years], ECB minutes, Trump rumors … wrap it all up and it’s a big pile of trouble … risk 15 PIPS to scratch or make a PIP, or worse. The highs made in USDJPY today, almost criminal … the lows should put people in jail, but won’t … the wicked spikes up and down for 20 – 30 PIPS in seconds, just wiped a whole lot of people out of the game. And, it wasn’t confined to simply USDJPY; EURJPY had a 40 – 50 PIP waterfall in seconds on the ECB minutes, only to rally back strongly … at the time the market above the “Kumo Cloud”, and in 1 second it’s 40 lower, so God help you if you had a sell stop in anywhere [guaranteed fill at the bottom … “you know, cuz the HAL9000 is so honest and everything”!]

Today’s trading was a frickin’ nightmare in USDJPY; even before the ECB minutes, prices erratically moving higher to make new highs, and then the ECB minutes jacking USDJPY about 40 PIPS in a second, where it promptly fell out of bed and went straight down [after they filled the buy stops of course] … then came the Trump rumors and the SP500 & Dow30 went into a nosedive, losing over 100+ points in the Dow30, and not recovering in price … it didn’t take long for USDJPY to go put in a double reversal low, with the obligatory snap back 1 M1 spike of 30+ PIPS to the upside to wipe out an hour of downside price erosion; all the while, price moving so fast you have no idea where the market is … all you could really discern, was that it was somewhere inside a 10 PIP window, and that no matter what you did, buy or sell, you were going to be handed a shit fill from hell.

Remember yesterday when out of the $400 bucks I lost about $300 of it was from slippage; well, today I’m happy to report slippage only cost us $200 on the $200 I lost. I’m sure it could have been far worse than it was, cuz I didn’t sell on any slide or buy on any rally … nope just everything ½ to 1.2 PIPS away from where I thought it should have been on every single order; “and yes HAL, we got  frickin’ problem”! I could bitch to the LP & Turnkey, but they aren’t going to do anything about it; they’re gonna say it was a wild day with news and political rumors, and that all the fills were fair, whatever that means. To keep things in context, though, I’m trading 3 times the level of past trades, so get used to hundreds losing and thousands winning … it’s what I’m trying to do, while at the same time keep risk under control.

Every day is like an experiment in terror, with the FWD, and now a double reversal showing up with a decent range … this doesn’t happen often, and in fact is quite rare in USDJPY [or any of the other Dollars pairs], about 2-3 times per 5 years … and now we get one today, and the FWD is everywhere as well. And while equity was again down today, like yesterday, it isn’t the algorithm’s fault or my execution, but rather the market is dysfunctional … and it was a whole hell of a lot less dysfunctional than EURJPY, or even EURUSD, where if we had been trading EURJPY [and been long] we could have taken a 5% hit instead of $200 in slippage.

I don’t have an answer as to why the markets have all of a sudden fallen in love with the FWD, or why a double reversal sprang out of today’s action; I simply don’t know, other than to say I’ve been commenting lately on the disturbing pattern of frequent FWD days in everything and how they kill accounts; if you’re not extremely careful, they can leave a real sting.

The other disturbing pattern emerging, and really manifesting itself in the DAX30 first, is very large spikes up & down, that come out of nowhere and once the damage is done, they retrace quickly and viciously … today, USDJPY certainly saw its share, and the purpose of these spikes is to run stops … pure and simple, the “Golden Rule” in effect, and if they got the money and the information, they will do it in a heartbeat; problem is, you don’t have any idea where they can or will stop … will it be 20 PIPS or 40? How about 50 or 60? You think you know, but you don’t.

In some respects, I feel like a guy trying to navigate a sailboat out in the ocean through a CAT 5 hurricane, taking on some water, but the boat is still afloat and the damage minimal; these markets are as treacherous as I’ve ever seen markets … turning on a proverbial dime and leaving traders in the dust … nobody has time to digest information, you can only react. I’m not one to make excuses; since we went to the stock indices format in April, we’re down about 2% after today, and a lot of that 2% is yesterday and today combined via slippage; not exactly heart pumping, but not a disaster by any means either… as I said, I’ve increased volumes by threefold, so losses more than likely will be in the hundreds, and when the algorithm nails it, and we can get away from the FWD, hopefully gains will be in the thousands.

Here at the end of the day, the stock market is getting “monkey hammered” … the SP500 over 30+ index points off its highs and trading near its low; USDJPY reluctantly going lower, but it’s a heavy grind, as there are buyers stacked everywhere … all it takes is for the SP500 to go up a point, point and a half, and the USDJPY shorts panic, sending it up 10+ PIPS in seconds. 20 points ago higher in the SP500 I pondered getting short USDJPY here in the afternoon; we’re only about 15 PIPS lower from that level, not exactly a ringing endorsement for being short. If I had been buying the Dow30 today, instead of trading USDJPY as an SP500 proxy, it would have been ugly … very ugly … instead, losing $200 to slippage from the thieving, scumbag LP seems very light in comparison. In essence, this is another example of one of my best trading days of all time in terms of avoiding disaster. No, I’m not happy being down $200, and it pisses me greatly that the LP feels the need to screw everybody [not just us], but on the other hand it isn’t something that will take weeks to make back either. One of the big problems markets are experiencing, is that even when I’m up in a trade, it turns so quickly and evaporates everything that you had in the trade in literally a fraction of a second; now, you got about 1 millisecond to make a decision as to whether or not to get out.

So, tomorrow will be interesting to say the least … will Asia crater stocks overnight? … will the SP500 & Dow30 start tomorrow’s trade down “bigly”? … and will USDJPY sell off if they do? Looking at the way the algorithm tracks the market, I’m very pleased with the results … I wish I could say the same about market conditions getting in and out and the way the LP fills orders … unfortunately, they need to improve greatly. Onward & Upward!

I’ve got some issues with the PAMM spreadsheet that need to be addressed … nothing for individual accounts, just some new headers and formatting … I’m looking to get it finished tonight, so look for the spreadsheet tomorrow.

Beach time! … the dog and I are outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

ARE WE ALL JUST HOSTAGES?

“For maximum relief, slowly but firmly bang head against window!”

Is it just me, or has the whole world descended into insanity? While I sit last night, and ponder the various manipulations of markets, politics, and society in general, I read and watch video of supposed grown adults kicking, spitting and shouting at a statute of Robert E. Lee that was pulled down by the peace loving group ANTIFA. “Umm, guys, you do realize it’s a frickin’ piece of metal right? … right? It’s been standing there for how many decades? And you just now “discovered” it and are moved to violence cuz your feelz are hurt? Ok, I see … were you blind for 8 years when President Empty Suit was in office?” And I find myself held hostage by “useful idiots” of the Left … spontaneous demonstrations my ass … another George Soros, B. Hussein O., & Cankles production financed and money laundered through various organizations with the sole purpose of destroying not only Trump [who they detest & hate more than anything Kim Jung Un could say or actually do], but the institutions and democracy of the country.

To Libtard Nation, and the entire tin foil hat crowd that makes up modern day Democrats, all that matters is rage, hate, victimhood, race, identity politics, and the need for vengeance … especially against the dumb ass “hicks" between the coasts who simply can’t or wouldn’t see the virtues of the anointed candidate who’s turn it was to be President. It’s an insult to intelligence is what it is … and for those misdeeds, the country simply needs to be destroyed. Let’s face it, we’re all hostages to the antics of these paid Loons, and my only wish is that they all get prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. EXIT QUESTION: “Why isn’t George Soros in prison”?

Turning to today’s markets … FED minutes at 2 PM today, most likely keeping this under wraps; then all hell breaks loose as usual. That doesn’t mean the usual stops hunts and other various manipulations aren’t going on … oh hell yes … it’s that time of year when European politicians and various other EU Apparatchiks take off for vacation, and you know, they more than likely need a little scratch in the kitty for mistress expenses; cuz Candy has needs don’tchaknow! Well, today’s “trial balloon” from the ECB, that Super Mario wouldn’t be laying out new policy directives at the Jackson Hole Summit next week sent the EURUSD reeling quickly. Who says Apparatchiks don’t learn quickly? After Kim Jung Un’s plunder of U.S. markets via long gold & short SP500 before the words flew, all you got to do Skippy is tell Candy to be short EURUSD at a certain time, and when it goes down, click the “close position” button … wait ‘till tomorrow and get the funds shipped out to wherever … go shopping and get all the toys you need for out little trip next week! Who says life has to be complicated? Cuz, as we all know [or should], in FX the only rule is that there aren’t any rules.

Meanwhile, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, it’s “vapors” time once again in the U.S. stock indices … of course we open 70 higher from overnight, stocks vaulting higher quickly in the first half hour of the European open, and then going sleepy time; thank you SNB, you’re doing God’s work. So, it’s the same old, same old in the Dow30 & SP500, which now haven’t moved to let us know they are alive in about 8 hours. As for the DAX30 … pluhleeze! … I just ate breakfast!

It’s midday already, and markets everywhere absolutely dead in the water; bigger waves in a bathtub with nobody in it. For its part USDJPY not doing anything; thirty-ish PIP range very low. Markets across the board waiting for the FED minutes at 2 PM; which if I think about it should be a non-event … it’s the minutes of what they did, not a policy statement; that’s already been issued, so I don’t know what it is the Street is looking for to move anything, although the words “inflation expectations” and “balance sheet reduction” are memes the “talking heads” will scrutinize with a microscope, like an Anasazi witch doctor reading the clouds to see what day is a good day to die in battle. All-in-all, they more than likely are about the same.

Again today, markets everywhere a mess … “Flying Wedge of Death” seemingly a permanent fixture now in markets thanks to the ever present central banker manipulation; the moves are quick, violent … and then they die and go sleepy time … rinse, repeat ‘til the next time, and you get the drift.

Ok, FED minutes out … round up the usual suspects … straight freight train move, thank you … place your bets and then hope … cuz, once the train starts it doesn’t let anybody on until the end, and then of course it’s too late. And so, in USDJPY, no algorithm signals cuz it’s straight down to the bottom with a down signal that began approximately 45 minutes earlier … welcome to the new normal. What utter bullshit, cuz lately every market is mirroring roulette.

One redeeming side to USDJPY over other markets, is its seeming ability to create its own bull or bear market every day; simply put, every day is a new experiment in terror, where anything and everything is possible, and no high or low is out of reach, and if you let this thing get away from you by thinking it can’t possibly “go there”, it will go there and kill you. It creates fantastic trading opportunities, but you have to wait for the algorithm signals, and if you don’t get them you simply come back later.

One trade today, very early in the day … a buy signal off a “Kumo Cloud” break to the upside … it went literally nowhere, and about 10 minutes later I scratched with the tiniest of PIPS profit, cuz market conditions were slowing down already and the M1’s were getting smaller and smaller. As it was, it was a good decision, cuz until the 2 PM FED minutes came out, nothing really happened … and then it’s the runaway freight train off the cliff to the bottom of the ravine. Speed of light … crickets; what else is new? Now, with about an hour to the New York close, USDJPY finally gives an algorithm buy signal … too little too late, cuz not enough time left ‘till the close; I’m simply going to pick up trading in Asia tonight to see if there is any follow through. I will say this, though, my fills in USDJPY were right on the money today, with zero slippage … please, keep up the good work LP.

PAMM spreadsheet will be back tomorrow; got some changes to make first tonight.

Beach time! … the dog and I are outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

YES HAL, WE GOT A PROBLEM!

“Me, talking to the HAL9000 computer system at the LP.”

I’m gonna skip my usual routine of talking about something on my mind in the news, and go right to today’s trading … maybe my name was on all the bullets they use from the alien gallery to decide who wins, loses, and why … to make a long story short, I lost a little less than 1%, and about 75% of that came via slippage from the scumbag LP. Simply put, I couldn’t have gotten worse fills if I sent the orders in via carrier pigeon to a CME broker.

So, I actually got to have a nice chat with a service representative at the LP bank, and I didn’t hold back one damn bit … it felt good, but you know the drill … “Our HAL 9000 computer system checked itself and everything is fine … all the fills were good”. Yes, very good for you, bagging my orders and stuffing them in your account. I talked with more than one person, and of course nothing is going to change … hell will freeze over first before they adjust or admit anything.

For its part, the algorithm worked well, the market didn’t … after the retail sales news broke, and all hell broke loose, bids/offers were all over the place and slippage was 3 – 5 PIPS if you were lucky … we weren’t. Add it all up over 4 trades [1 winner and 3 losers that shouldn’t have been], and out of the approximate $400 I lost, I’m estimating about $300 of that was via phantom shit fills that had no business being handed out. And of course, this is the same old “same shit, different day” routine you get from these guys who are simply thieves. And they want me to take comfort in the fact I’m not the only one complaining today, which gives me the chance to reply, “Gee, I wonder why … you’re so honest and all of that … why would anybody complain”?

Well, this brings back nightmare trading conditions to the fore once again, and no matter how good you are, no matter how good your algorithm is, it isn’t going to help you when they set out to screw you on fills via slippage … and boy, was that day today. Of course, this wouldn’t be necessary if the damn stock indices were allowed to trade … but of course, the manipulators can’t have any of that … the only time stock indices trade is when they are allowed to trade cuz the manipulators find out from their criminal TBTF bank buds that there are sell orders on the books to be filled, and they back out of the way for a while. Once that’s over with, it’s biz as usual, and they go right back to sleep doing nothing.

After talking with some people at the LP bank, and doing some thinking today, I’m going to add back USDJPY into the mix as a “stock proxy”. Make no mistake, the stock indices DO NOT reflect reality, they are manipulated so much … given the trading conditions, the only way you can actually trade them is to hold them overnight and hope they move. USDJPY is the premier FX asset class when it comes to “risk on / risk off”, and I thought EURJPY was on a “par” with USDJPY; well no, it isn’t. So, I’ll be adding USDJPY as my first proxy choice to trade [EURJPY SECOND] because it has tighter spreads, deeper liquidity, and I’m assured I will be happy with the LP bank conditions … yea, well we will see won’t we?

From an algorithmic standpoint, the correlation with the SP500 is good, and the trading signals given via the algorithm are excellent, so I’m going to take the LP banks advice and trade USDJPY as the stock proxy of choice going forward.

There are just some days, when I wish this business didn’t exist … today is one of them. I was there, I had the right signals, I was on the right side of the market, and we should have been profitable … we weren’t, thank you very much LP bank. It boils my blood and frosts my cupcake, but there isn’t anything to be done about it … it is what it is … simply move on and tackle USDJPY tomorrow absent anything in the stock indices. I would trade the DAX30, but again today, the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] making yet another appearance, for like the umpteenth time in as many days … new highs, new lows, gaps, spikes up, spikes down … panic one way, then panic the other … since the big traders left the SP500 & Dow30 and started playing here, this market has been utterly untradeable.

As many readers/clients know, in the past I have traded USDJPY and sung its praises … the problem with USDJPY is when it slows down, but it’s simply something I have to deal with cuz we are left with no proxy alternatives; if it goes dead, then it can join the Dow30 & SP500, and we are in the same boat anyway, so what’s the difference? A dead USDJPY is different how from the Dow30 that has a 2 point spread and sits in a ± 7 point range for 3 hours? And, it still has slippage! So for me, it’s 1) ease of trade, 2) “net” trading costs, and 3) does it move? Well, USDJPY certainly stacks up better than any of the stock indices at the moment, all the while reflecting their overall trend.

More importantly, since USDJPY is a “risk on / risk off” U.S. stock indices proxy, the version 4 algorithm works extremely well with the pair, without the headaches and slippage in EURJPY. We give up some in terms of potential daily “range”, but we get back more I believe in terms of almost no slippage [remember, I’m assured I won’t see any starting tomorrow … OK, show me.], and less “sloppy” trading action.

Markets and LP’s, together, are throwing everything including the kitchen sink at us … you name it, it’s getting hurled at us daily … panic up, panic down … the FWD and its doji candlesticks … speed of light moves & then crickets … slippage on everything … and of course, completely dead markets except when they wake up and panic. The version 4 algorithm can handle the market part, but isn’t responsible for the scumbag LP … that’s an unfortunate wildcard we get to deal with daily. However, even with today’s “paper cut”, if going back to USDJPY is going to save us money in the future, I’m happy to pay the tuition now and get it behind us. I know it’s a pain in the donkey to get clipped by these assclowns, but I [we] persevere and move on to tomorrow where opportunity awaits us. So, Onward & Upward!

I’ve got a trade discrepancy in the master account getting figured out from Turnkey; should be fixed by tomorrow morning. I’ll have the PAMM spreadsheet with tomorrow’s blog post.

Beach time! … the dog and I are outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Monday, August 14, 2017

WELCOME TO AMERICAN ENTROPY!

“Would it be the same people who show up in Charlottesville, VA.?”

Well, no expectations of trouble here, right? Seriously stupid people on the fringe right and ultra tin-foil hat fringe left go at it while the country sits back and watches. Natch, no matter what happens Libtard Nation screams their faux outrage that it’s all Trump’s fault; “Gee, I never thought of that … thanks for the retarded insight … Note to the idiots on the Left: If you want more Trump, this is how you get more Trump, and they wonder why they lose elections”!

Meanwhile, we all wait for WWIII and the end of the world via a nuclear exchange with the Norks that nobody knows how it will end. I’m wondering this morning if Kim has covered his SP500 shorts and/or liquidated his gold longs? Might want to let the money clear first in Switzerland and give the Chi-Coms & the Ruskies their cut before you go spending all that western cash on hookers & blow.

Of course, what would the start to a week be without the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] showing up in Asia and ramping stocks higher on … natch, worse than terrible economic stats out of China, cuz nothing says buy MOAR STOCKS like data that shows the world is in a depression … cuz remember, it’s all about “fun-dur-mentals”. So here we are at the start of a Monday and the Dow30 is up about 50 points on “vapors”, simply cuz they can, and they don’t want anybody to think anything is wrong anywhere about anything … simply STFU and buy MOAR!

As for the DAX30, one look at the M1, and it looks like somebody exploded a grenade inside a spaghetti factory; up/down, gaps, spikes up, spikes down, price everywhere and anywhere, the “Kumo Cloud” left hopelessly wondering what the hell is going on. Well, I’ll tell you; big money that has left the stop hunting grounds of the Dow30 & SP500 [cuz the manipulators won’t let them play anymore] to plunder the German market while the regulators drink beer and watch porn on the office computers. In a nutshell, that’s what’s going on, and if you play in this market, you either lose big or win small, all the while handed shit fills via LP slippage as the bank computer [HAL1000] says, “Dave? Dave? We don’t have a problem do we Dave”?

Turning to today’s markets … EURJPY has now retraced its tight range and is now under the 50% mark on the day’s range; this is worth watching, as the U.S. indices really haven’t moved much, especially the Dow30, but the SP500 is down about a point from a few hours ago [big whoop]. Nonetheless, it seems like the entire world is waiting for another “shoe to drop”, whether its stock indices heading lower via the top floor roof, or the Norks situation deteriorating rapidly into actual missiles. While there are corporate flows that keep EURJPY trading up/down in random fashion, nobody really wants to take a position, or has any confidence in one, when at any second things can go “entropy” quickly.

About an hour after the New York open, and stocks in full PPT mode; the story, though, is the break of EURJPY, with both EURUSD weakness & USDJPY weakness [Yen strengthens]. Those of you that have read the new version 4 algorithm can see the 34 minute Cardinal Cross down move from high to low, that started right after stocks opened. Again today, everything putting in either “Flying Wedges of Death” [FWD] or reversal patterns, and making life difficult for practically everybody.

Noon time in New York, and its “biz as usual” for stocks; meaning simply, they have no range and do absolutely nothing the entire day but drift up ever so slightly on manipulated bids or simply sit… pathetic, but what do you expect after the break last week? Did you somehow think they were just going to go away and leave matters to traders? They’re here forever from now on … learn it, love it, deal with it.

What does it say about EURJPY when the Sunday session that is all of 3 hours long, has almost the same range as the next entire 24 hours [so far]? Another reversal, as we start the day off in Europe attempting to expand the day’s range on the upside, but quickly after about 90 minutes, going into the slow “3 steps down, 2 steps up” grind down to new lows some 6 hours later. And while it isn’t part of the algorithm, the 50% rule I often use saved the day for me, simply because I only want to take algorithm long signals when the market is above the 50% price mark, and vice versa for short positions. Today’s low range in EURJPY complicated things, as literally a couple of PIPS at times is the difference in being long or short … 50/50 on random orders isn’t something I want to get involved in … if that is what trading is about, I’ll go to a casino and get comped playing baccarat or something like it.

Of course, once the sell stops have been cleaned out by restless longs, the market goes up and stays there cuz there wasn’t any real selling to begin with, only traders stuck long at higher levels and being forced out by the dealers and hedge funds that can see the order flow and take advantage of it with their size. In other words, it was a plain old “stop hunt”, once successfully completed, it’s now back to the middle where we can waste away the day doing nothing but waiting for tomorrow.

As I said in the manual, when the “Kumo Cloud” is 1) very thin with no size, and 2) the “Cloud” is sloping straight across and is basically zero, meaning no up or down but simply sideways, you have to be really very careful with trades where price is hanging around whatever “Cloud” there is, simply because random orders can take it a PIP or two any which way and it doesn’t mean anything, but it very well could initiate a buy or sell signal. It doesn’t mean up, and it doesn’t mean down; it was simply a trap for the unwary and “entropy” in all its glory.

Which brings me to the $64,000 question I know many will ask; “ok -vegas, I understand what you are sayin’, but which “Cloud” breakouts are legit and which aren’t”? I can’t answer that, cuz it’s all probability waves at work … nothing more, nothing less. I can only say that when the “Cloud” is thin and going sideways, I will most likely stay away cuz what it’s telling me is that around a PIP or two it’s basically a 50/50 bet, and that’s not good enough for me. Sometimes you win and sometimes you will lose, but you’ll need a breakout that goes somewhere to make up for all the ones you take that are small losers when these 2 conditions are present; you’ll win 1 and lose 5, but more likely than not it’s the 5 losers that come up first, and then the question becomes how willing are you to make the 6th trade? Cuz if you’re going to trade under these 2 conditions, you MUST TAKE THEM ALL!

Where the version 4 algorithm really shines, though, is under adverse trading conditions like small ranges, doji’s, reversals, and the account killer FWD. When everybody and their brother finds out that trading can bring riches, they rush out and will believe anything they find at the bookstore; what they don’t realize is that everything, no matter how stupid, has to work sometime! If it didn’t, you could filter it out and never have a loser, which of course probability theory says is impossible. Problem is, systems/models/algorithms limitations will show up a lot sooner than people realize, thus exposing the weakness of whatever it is they are using to trade … not knowing what to do, the account gets “monkey hammered”. What happened?

What happened is that the system/model/algorithm was being traded under conditions where it had no chance of success because its user did not understand its limitations or conditions, under where it would fail with a greater than 50% fail rate; so, where in the book was the warning? [Yea, right] I can produce total BS, sell it for $99.95, and at some point it will work … and when it does work some month, I can then run infomercials with Grandma’s full of cash in their hands gushing about my system … and when you look at the last 20 years, that’s what you get in many different, yet hilarious forms.

I will be the first to admit, since February 2016 when the FED quietly, and without fanfare took over markets, trading has been a B. I. Itch to make money in and prosper like before. Nobody sends you an email telling you of the change in the rules; trading in the secondary markets like gold, oil, and other FX crosses, the first to feel the brunt of the “new FED rules” for trading. Then slowly, everybody realized the VIX in stocks was getting the life sucked out of it, and wondered why stocks were not reacting to world events, or economic news, all the while daily ranges were collapsing dramatically; nobody wanted to believe the FED, ECB, & BOJ [with some help from the SNB] were manipulating markets … some money managers couldn’t come to grips with the fact. Remember, the “oil king”, Andy Hall … Mr. Perma Bull, multi billion dollar oil trader no more … it hurts when you’re the last one to get the memo and have to shut down your operations.

As I have written before, 2017 is the worst year in the biz for money managers since 1987, whether stocks or commodities doesn’t matter … they’re getting killed; many down 30%+ or more, too late to realize the game has changed dramatically, and how the hell do you make it back? Now, I don’t pretend to be the “smartest guy in the room” … far from it. But when things in trading don’t work, and they’ve been working for years, you have to wake up and smell the coffee pretty damn quick and ask “why not”? The market is very good at letting you know what your weaknesses are, if you’re willing to listen … and I can tell you, I listen more than you know. Nobody comes to trading and is a “perfect trader” … sorry, that person doesn’t exist; we become good because we listen to what its saying to us and we adapt.

Back in my floor trading days, I never, ever envisioned trading like it is today, and especially how acquiescent Wall Street is having the FED manipulate everything. But, here we are, and when faced with problems, you either find the solution or you lose money. That has led my trading algorithm to various versions that fixed one or many problems, but as I have said before, the greatest dangers are the problems you don’t know exist … hell, you don’t even know what questions to ask, let alone have solutions. I simply can’t make the version 4 algorithm more “generalized” than it is for all market conditions we face … it runs the gamut, and when markets like EURJPY trade [or even the Dow30 if it’s ever allowed to trade again … some days I wonder], in its present form, the version 4 algo will 1) keep you on the right side of the market, and 2) make you aware of the short term cycles for tops or bottoms. Of course, it can’t guarantee tops and bottoms … nothing can, only where Gann’s theories on cycles say tops and bottoms “occur here, at this time and place”. Well, that’s good enough for me, cuz it puts me up on a trade while risking little; now I’m in control. The algorithm simply uses Gann’s information and works BACKWARDS in conjunction with my proprietary work in “exhaustions”, and I’m very excited I finally got it released so you know what it is I’m attempting to do.

Today’s trading saw 2 profitable algorithm trades; both were long positions early in the day before the market reversed and went to new lows, while price in EURJPY was above the 50% mark at the time. Both trades directly below.



In both trades, long spikes that went nowhere got me out; this is one of the rules for trading. It doesn’t matter what I think; if I see a large spike up, I’m liquidating on the slightest hint of a turnaround if I’m long. I’ve seen this rodeo before, and waiting for the turn costs you plenty.

On the daily candlestick, if the market closed now after 18 hours, it would be another “doji” … and sure enough, we open, go higher into Europe, go to new lows for the day as the U.S. session opens, and once that’s over with, it’s the slow climb back into the middle, thank you very much FWD. Gets you long up top, short near the bottom, and then traps you into the close for more losses; that’s what the FWD does, and I avoid it like it was the financial ebola virus.

Today’s trade disappointing in many respects, not the least of which is range, but the simple truth is the market caught too many people long EURJPY in Europe, and when higher stocks didn’t produce buying at the U.S. open, the liquidate sell buttons started to get pushed and it was a race to the bottom … all told, it took 34 minutes of the 18 hours, and as I write it’s back into the middle like a good little FWD should. The only real sell signal coming after 4 produced nothing but scratches … the 5th came and took off and never looked back … since then, it’s been a crawl up, hitting off buy stops of those short earlier in the day.
For their part, the stock indices today a complete waste … “vapors” overnight, open higher, “protect & defend” what you stole overnight, rinse and repeat … how many times have we seen this the last 3 -4 months? New York simply a disaster trading arena … what’s the point of it even being open? Somebody please give me one, cuz from where I’m sittin’ I’ll simply quote Art Cashin of UBS, who once said, “today is a waste of a clean shirt and a tank of gas”.

Trading today not as profitable as I would have liked to see it, even with increased volume cuz conditions are excellent at Turnkey, but it is for all practical purposes a “doji” day on the daily candlestick with small tails on either end; this remains the “form of my [our] destruction”, as there isn’t anything else that has a lower probability of occurring day-to-day. So, on days like today, I have to be content to walk out the door with anything to the plus side cuz it’s a “doji” day. Still, I’m happy with how the algorithm performed on its first day available to the public … I hope you can see its power, its logic, how it keeps you out of trouble and on the right side, and how both Gann’s cycle theory utilizing the “Square of Nine”, along with my “exhaustion work [not needed today] comes together to produce consistent profits. If anybody has any questions/comments, please pass them along to me at traderzoogold@gmail.com and I’ll get back with you ASAP. Onward & Upward!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Beach time! … the dog and I are outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Sunday, August 13, 2017

DAX30 SUNDAY UPDATE & EURJPY VERSION 4 ALGORITHM IS PUBLISHED!




The DAX30 chart [red line = median, blue line = average] and weekly tabular information directly above. Things are starting to get completely out of hand in this market … I’d even say, right now for the moment, it’s untradeable. Every bad thing you can dream up is currently in vogue in the DAX30; “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] almost every day, doji patterns from the opening creeping into the daily candlesticks, vicious spikes up/down coming out of nowhere and then … crickets, until it starts again, and gaps in price that make your eyes water, meaning slippage is profound and getting worse.

Starting next week I’m going to replace the DAX30 info with EURJPY information, giving us a much better read on stock indices trading via the proxy. By trading EURJPY, all we are doing is mirroring the SP500 & Dow30 without manipulation in a correlated “risk on / risk off” environment. Take away the blatant and overt manipulation on most days [like Friday], and the Dow30 would most likely look like EURJPY.

The version 4 algorithm for EURJPY is available over in the “Download Links” [right hand column] section of the website. It’s a PDF, and can be viewed online or downloaded onto your PC, tablet, or phone. It’s free for everyone, and it’s available through my shared file box at box.com. If anyone has questions/comments, please email me at traderzoogold@gmail.com and I’ll get back to you ASAP.

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas


OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Friday, August 11, 2017

WHAT IF?

“Clap if you’re short SP500 & long gold!”

Well, it all makes sense if you believe nutjobs like Kim are “crony capitalists” at heart, all the while outwardly totalitarian socialists. Many years ago, in a universe far, far away … specifically the gold pits of Chicago before they lost it to New York [a story for another day], the KGB used to play the gold market like their own personal ATM. Simply put, they’d use a specific house [any guesses?] to buy and sell gold futures through, and every 5 or 6 months, while nothing particular was going on in the world, the “buy brokers” for this house would start one day with bidding on 100 lots, and wouldn’t shut up for 2 seconds the entire day … all told by the end of the day, between 2 or 3 buy brokers, they bought between 20,000 – 30,000 contracts … and I would leave the day behind, go to the train station to go home and get out of Murder, Illinois thinking, “Hell man, who were those guys buying all that stuff”?

And I would wake up the next morning, grab a WSJ at the train station, and see that overnight Russia had moved troops to the border of Poland, cuz apparently to the Ruskies, “tensions” were building that needed troop support. And I’d hit the pit and get an opening call of $15 - $20 higher; “Well now, ain’t this interesting as hell”? And once gold opened, the “sell side brokers” would take over, and these guys started offering 100 lots every 2 seconds for the entire day … and what started out $20 higher, ended the day $5 - $7 higher, as this house sold every uptick the entire day.

Lo and behold the next day, pick up the WSJ and what do I read coming into the city for another trading day; well, the Ruskies overnight withdrew the troops after a meeting with the U.N. secretary general, and he assured the world [after he got his cut, for sure] everybody was interested in “peace & harmony” and all that other BS they dribble out … get into the pit and the opening call is $10 lower. “Ok rocket scientists, figure it out already”!

So, after this happened, and then again a couple more times, you could plainly see that the KGB was using the gold market every time they needed an extra $50 million bucks or so [for expenses] and were running a little short of rubles in the checking account.

So, what makes pot-bellied Kim Jong Un so different? He sells SP500 futures and buys gold futures right before the words start flying … not happy that his first words are sufficient to crack stocks and put a fire bid under gold, he ratchets up the rhetoric to get the desired result. PRESTO … BINGO! The only question now is, when does he cover? And if you got the world stage, a Swiss brokerage house account, and the ability to rattle President Trump’s cage, what could possibly go wrong? And of course, he learned the whole “set up” from the Ruskies and our bud Vlad, since he was in charge of the KGB back-in-the-day, and more than likely got the perfect instructions from one of the masters.

Cuz in my mind, the most likely scenario to this clusterfark with North Korea, is an out-of-the-blue total “everybody is happy” now solution, where some credible third party [the Germans maybe or the Swiss for example], or even some not so credible party [like the Chi-Coms, after they get their cut of course] come up with the “face saving” measure for all parties [after Kim covers of course, and not one second sooner], and the world can breath easier until the next time. In the end, it’s all about the money … and don’t forget, the biggest, greediest, and most ruthless dirtbags in the world are either TBTF banks [our friendly LP’s] or totalitarian dictators who see the “free money” for themselves by playing western capitalist markets … and you think the Arabs got clean hands in the oil market? [hahahaha]

Turning to today’s markets … very quiet overnight, as nobody really wants to do anything after the slaughter of U.S. stocks yesterday … and both the SP500 & Dow30 very quiet, with small ranges … it became very apparent to me as the European market opened and progressed forward, that EURJPY action would be almost entirely dependent upon SP500 price action, and that market moves would be choppy and very tough to trade … so, patiently waiting to get a clue from stocks … having said that, though, this won’t end on the downside until, at a minimum, there is some capitulation selling on the U.S. open; whether it’s today or whenever, opening steady and attempting to go higher invites selling later and more than likely the buying will not be able to be sustained after the slaughter yesterday. So, until you get a lower opening, stocks will be sold on the way up.

Here at midday, unbelievably stocks have been higher since the open with zero selling pressure … not a test of the lows, not even a smidgen of selling to get close to the “unched “ mark … this tells me the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] and most likely the SNB are in full “bid mode” today, and there is no way in hell they’re gonna let stocks drop so it can be in all the Sunday papers for the 401(k)-ers to see over the weekend; cuz as we all know, if the average guy/gal gets the idea that stocks have “had it”, and goes to sell the mutual funds and the passive ETF’s & index funds, the redemption's will make Thursday’s hurricane drop look like “chance of showers”. Meanwhile EURJPY doing a great job of anticipating SP500 moves today, but everything about EURJPY trading today out of kilter, along with a reversal “blow up” the talking heads are attributing to the 8:30 inflation report … nice try PPT, but we all know you use these dumb ass reports as camouflage for massive buying, and as a result EURJPY skyrockets 50 PIPS in about 5 seconds … a few minutes later Vampire Squid adds fuel to the fire by cutting rate hike odds for December, and you got all you need for a “kill the shorts” scramble to the high, where the market promptly goes into a 60 PIP correction.

It’s been a messed up day thanks to stocks, which 1) did not open lower, and 2) PPT efforts all day long at keeping prices comatose to take away yesterday’s bloodbath from investor’s minds [nothing to see here Sheeple … move along now], and going back to “biz as usual” and the Dow30 has about a 25 point range from the open. Of course, it’s early yet and anything can still happen … maybe the sellers show up later, I dunno … but it appears to me the PPT isn’t going to let the market drop today, at least not without a fight.

All day long, EURJPY has been following the SP500 in its minuscule range … SP500 goes up 1 index point, EURJPY goes on a ramp higher … SP500 goes down 1 index point, EURJPY disappointment sets in and price drops quickly. It’s been like this all day long, but the problem is the SP500 won’t move, along with EURUSD that has been “bid spooked” all day long alternating between those who want to sell any rally over 1.18000 and those looking to buy under 1.18000 and then running stops … rinse, repeat, and you’re looking at the entire day since Europe opened.

As much as I’d like to “swing for the fences”, today has not set up at all correctly for this in any of the 3 markets I’m looking at to trade. First, the DAX30 is a basket case of “Flying Wedge’s of Death”, doji’s, reversals, stop runs, horrible slippage, and last but certainly not least spikes from hell both up and down … the chart looks like spaghetti thrown up against a wall, and in its present state I won’t trade it cuz its insane from a risk/reward standpoint. Second, the Dow30 is back to “I refuse to move, thank you” conditions that make paint drying look exciting, along with the usual dealer LP games; no trading here unless it drops. Third, North Korea concerns have USDJPY spooked beyond belief, making EURJPY highly vulnerable to down spikes. Nothing starting today, the way things shaped up as I first surveyed the trading landscape said “big day” … instead, it was screaming “trouble lies ahead, be careful”. Simply put, a scalp kind of day in EURJPY, unless the SP500 & Dow30 can do something except sit. So far, from 10 hours ago, the twiddling is winning.

So, not much to do really, cuz if you throw volume out there and suddenly stocks move, if you’re on the wrong side it’s gonna hurt if you were long, and vice versa if stocks rally and you’re short … ouch; especially if USDJPY starts dropping like a rock in water [Yen rally] … what makes this all the more strange, is that yesterday saw massive moves lower on volume, and today it’s total crickets … go figure. And if stocks go down and up alternatively, and you’re expecting a bigger drop, you end up on the FWD “yo-yo”, and quite frankly you’re trading the DAX30 whether you realize it or not. In reality, everything on the board “out-of-whack” today, and the direct result of that is choppy, sharp action up and down as people panic on a Friday. As much as I’d like to, just not a day to hit home runs.

Over the weekend, I’ll be putting the finishing touches on the full EURJPY version 4 volatility trading manual; I’ll post it for viewing and/or download in the “Download Links” section of the website over in the right-hand column on Sunday night some time, and at the same time I’ll remove the “Quick Guide” that’s up there now. And, I’ll prepare you now … IMHO, the version 4 Algo for our “proxy” stock index is as close as you will get to “low risk, high reward” trading [that everybody says they want and desire] as you’re likely to ever come across. I start with the “logic & theory” behind the version 4 algo, and where it makes much better improvements over prior versions … generally speaking, the algorithm now covers all trading conditions, from very slow to hyper volatile … it builds on prior versions because the version 4 is the “general case” under all probabilistic conditions, and does not solely rely on candlestick signals which have disappeared since central bankers have taken over trading.

It’s not the easiest read on trading, but it isn’t “rocket science or brain surgery” either; it needs you to understand why it works and how it goes about making a visual trading platform like MT4 work for you and when to make trades, importantly when not to, and when to liquidate … all the fuzzy higher math is hidden in the visual components, so you don’t have to do anything EXCEPT follow the damn directions and rules for its use [you can follow directions right? … right?]. Once you read it and understand it, all you have to do is scroll back on the MT4 and see the power … it’s there for you to see, don’t take my word for it, do it yourself and I’m pretty sure you’ll be convinced as I am that it’s as “good as it gets”.

All told today, I did 2 scalp trades in EURJPY waiting for the damn stock indices to do something … shouldn’t have, as it cost me some good trades … on the other hand, I didn’t expect a totally zero day from the Dow30 either, and that’s what we got [so far]. If I had done the trades in the Dow30, I would have gotten eaten alive by the scumbag LP via slippage, and of course the spread, and I doubt I would have profited anything. Our “proxy” stock index has far, far superior trading conditions with the consistently tightest spread and low RT commission in the biz, resulting in a “net” cost to trade less than half a PIP … thank you, I’ll take it; I don’t know of any place else that is better than Turnkey.

Here towards the close in New York, some SP500 & Dow30 selling has appeared, thus erasing all the day’s gains … this exactly what I was afraid of since the “inflation report” jacked EURJPY up to the 128.70 – 75 area within seconds. And although we have had some lurches up since then, the market finds itself only fractionally higher from 7 hours ago … and if I was long from a higher level I’d be very nervous, looking to liquidate anywhere, going into the close. Next week should be a hoot, and it looks very much like volatility is back! Onward & Upward!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Beach time … the dog and I are outta here. Until tomorrow.

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!