CRYPTO TICKER

powered by Coinlib
Showing posts with label strange attractors. Show all posts
Showing posts with label strange attractors. Show all posts

Thursday, March 15, 2018

“ZOMBIE APOCALYPSE” DAY IS HERE

“After a hard day of buying highs & selling lows, an FX trader heads home!”

I’ve been wondering for weeks when this would show up … and why not, 
every other damn thing “tail risk” used to be, is now “normal” … so where is 
the day, or God forbid group of days, when there is no range, no liquidity, no 
volume, and shit fills from scumbag LP’s? [Hint: How about this week?]  
“Dave … Dave … We don’t have a problem do we Dave”? 

Again today, and it’s been a trend that has been repeatedly showing up in 
EURUSD for weeks, and that is the first half of the European session [4 - 4 ½ 
hours] is literally “dead” … hell, today for example, until the almost useless 
crap reported @8:30 EST came along, EURUSD had less than a 25 PIP range 
… “what the hell am I supposed to do with this”? Anything you do, subjects 
you to the high/low “strange attractors”, and places any stop, buy or sell, at 
risk of getting filled within seconds, at a price you’re not gonna like. 

And away we go to the downside, but if you think being short is some 
panacea, guess again … the up spikes are just as vicious as the down spikes, 
and unless you throw risk management out the window, there’s no way you 
can hang on or stay short as it’s rocketing against you, simply cuz you’re 
playing “analyst”, instead of trader. Not only has EURUSD seen a large drop 
in intraday liquidity and volume this week, the ranges have been terrible 
going forward from the European open … very choppy, vicious trading 
action, where the scumbag LP banks are doing their level best to hand out shit 
fills like candy on Halloween … today no exception.

Only one trade today … again, PAMM up slightly, nothing significant.

The “setup” was good, and I couldn’t ask for a better scenario … I hit the 
scumbag LP bank offer when it was quoted at 1.23389, and I got filled at 
1.23414 … “would you thieves like some blood too … maybe you could sell that 
for extra profit as well? Do I get a salami log roll, or box of candy at Christmas 
this year along with that fill”? It took me all of 6 seconds to close the “OK box”, 
bring up the liquidation order box and immediately see I was up money 
… click, I’m out … as I’ve said before, when you get bent over a railing for 
unprotected and unsolicited trading intercourse by the scumbag LP bank, you 
look to get out, with any profit, ASAP cuz it most definitely skews your profit 
outlook … if I had gotten filled properly, that jump is what I’m looking for to 
liquidate upon any sign of weakness in price … it isn’t to be held onto with a 
hope & a prayer … from there, time to reevaluate and look for the next 
opportunity.

Well, that was the only “setup” worth taking, in my opinion, the entire day 
… yes, there were a couple of small rallies, but the down spikes off these bumps 
up were really vicious … if you’re a millisecond late, only God knows what 
your fill is gonna be, cuz it could be anywhere from 3 - 5 PIPS away from that 
price you had your eye on and expected to see.

What bothers me more than anything, is the way EURUSD has been trading 
this week … this is the second day in a row I’ve gotten horrible fills from the 
scumbag LP’s … “yea, we all know they’re crooks and thieves; everybody knows 
that, but today’s 7-11 robbery went beyond their normal Vito Corleone 
shakedown, to a level that frosts my cupcake. Yea HAL, we got an F-ing 
problem”!

Cuz what the market has done this week so far, is to change the risk/reward 
dynamic in its internal trading structure … even though I’ve been right there 
on the proper upticks, most of my fills have been off the market on entry or 
liquidation. This increase in slippage, is a result of lower volumes and 
markedly lower ranges, and the scumbag LP’s are looking for protection from 
any and all orders because of their supposed increase in risk by filling an order 
and not being able to cover it without losing money … so, to cover that, you get 
slippage … and sometimes that slippage is large.

Scanning other markets, trading conditions aren’t any better anyplace else 
either … Cable [GBPUSD] has gone to sleep, with small ranges becoming the 
norm; stock indices are a joke; gold is an even bigger joke; USDJPY is all over 
the place … watching that market for a few minutes, the price gaps are even 
worse than EURUSD … so, there isn’t any other market that is escaping the 
turmoil of high slippage, low ranges, and rotten fills.

As it is, EURUSD barely had a 60 PIP range today from the extremes up to the 
European close … into the afternoon U.S. session we saw new lows … Ok, that 
takes us to 70 PIPS, still not that big of a deal when you’re trying to buy the 
bottom … if you had tried to buy all the other 5 or 6 bottoms from the 
European open, you’re gonna need a 20+ PIP rally on volume to just break 
even from the “monkey hammering” from the first 5 or 6. Cuz bottom line is 
this: “you can’t keep buying bottoms with no range and expect good results, and 
you pretty much have to leave New York afternoon new highs or new lows alone, 
cuz if you aren’t right, you’ll get carried out with sizeable losses … and, as I will 
remind you again, getting “whacked” is not part of the plan … at least not in my 
PAMM. I love to make money as much as the next person, but I don’t “take 
shots” … “shots” are for idiots who mostly now lie in the “Trader’s Graveyard”, 
and never had a clue to begin with in understanding what trading is really all 
about … which is, of course, controlling risk and then identifying “setups” with 
high probability of profit”.

Another frustrating day for me, as I sit here and see the brutal carnage in 
spikes, both up and down, and wondering when this crap will end … all inside 
relatively small daily ranges, which makes things worse cuz it takes literally 
nothing in terms of PIPS to get the market nervous and for those high/low 
“strange attractors” to start exerting their influence … “and let me tell you, the 
scumbag LP banks & large hedge funds will use all of their resources to get you 
to do something you don’t want to do, which is to buy the spike up or sell the 
spike down cuz you have to cut your loss … they know this, and you end up 
adding fuel to your own fire”!

Tomorrow sees nothing of importance on the E.U. docket for release, and for 
the U.S. there are housing starts [8:30 EST]and consumer confidence [10:00 
EST]; we’ll see if Europoe can do anything coming out of the Asian session 
… if so, it would be the first time this week. If not, it’s another case of “hurry 
up & wait” ‘till New York gets going with the first batch of reports, starting 
with housing starts.

Add it all up, and it’s another day of small profits … not thrilled about it, but 
it comes with the territory … the important issue is “up money & equity”. I’m 
sure there are plenty of others who would trade places with us right now, no 
questions asked. In any event, we’ll see what tomorrow brings … I’m outta 
here … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

  
 












 

Monday, March 12, 2018

WELCOME TO A NOTHING MONDAY

“FX trader as a kid … what could possibly go wrong?”

No adjectives really, to describe adequately today’s EURUSD trade, that 
wouldn’t get my mouth washed out with Lava when I was about 8 years old 
… now that I’m an adult, the mouth washing seems a better idea. To say 
today was “pathetic”, would be an insult to pathetic … good grief … no 
volume, no liquidity, & no range to a nothing day that can only get you hurt.

Another “bigly & yuge” treasury auction the main events of the day ...those 
went off according to the manipulative effect of the FED, who no doubt hit the 
CNTRL-P button to sop up the fiat paper and make it look like there’s no 
problem with running trillion dollar budget deficits. EXIT QUESTION: “Will 
it be like this in 5 years when the inept Treasury Dept. auctions off weekly T-bill 
auctions for a trillion dollars”?

Tomorrow sees “the most important CPI number evahhh”! … the trade 
obviously waiting and playing the “hurry up & wait” game we’ve all become 
accustomed to in financial markets, cuz nobody can do nada without some 
kind of breaking news as the “official” backdrop of the “talking heads”. Add it 
all up, and it makes for a nothing “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] day, where 
again, anybody who hangs around any position longer than he/she can hold 
their breath, risks getting that next spike right up your donkey … and so it was 
about 295 times today, where the first 4 hours you can’t get an uptick to save 
your life … somebody at Central Bank HQ throws the light switch … and on a 
dime, the market turns and spends the rest of the day moving higher, almost to 
the Asian high [so far].

And through it all, the market “setups” totally stink … a result of the low 
volume, tight range day with everybody on hold for tomorrow. For example, 
the day’s low price in EURUSD saw action within a PIP or two for about 9 
minutes … “sure, everybody gets a chance to buy the low of the day; why not”?

Only one trade today … PAMM up a few bucks, nothing special.

I wasn’t happy with my long entry fill … in my estimation, it should have 
been about 1.1 PIPS lower, and it was simply the case of getting filled on a 
“mystery” tick … got no “love” from the scumbag LP, that’s for sure. My rule 
when I get “hosed” upon entry of any position, is to look for any opportunity 
to get out at a profit … that opportunity came some minutes later, and I 
liquidated 1/10th of a PIP from the high bid of the M1 … I didn’t hesitate or 
question the decision, cuz when you get a bad fill it skews your profit picture 
… simply liquidate at the first chance and start over. And even though I didn’t 
know it at the time, that was the only good “setup” I saw the rest of the day.

As I stated in an earlier blog, you have to be really careful of tight range days, 
and for EURUSD that definition is less than 40 PIPS … getting long near the 
bottom, or short near the high, opens you up to “stop spikes” that can hurt you, 
simply cuz the early day’s high/low act as Chaos Theory “strange attractors”, 
and will tug a market quickly towards taking one or both out and causing 
losses … losses that have a high probability of being worse than you think, cuz 
you never know where your stop is gonna get filled until it’s over.

And with the day’s range right around 50 PIPS, and price hanging around the 
low of the day for 9 minutes, if you get long in here the probabilities of further 
lows are high … most days, 50 PIPS isn’t gonna be anywhere near the range, 
and playing the “doji” card cuz of tomorrow’s CPI report holding the market 
at bay for the day, is a very dangerous way to trade … you’re inviting a future 
disaster. So, chalk today up as a garbage day, the rest of the week a literal data 
dump of reports and news events the market is surely waiting with hushed 
anticipation … until the next “hurry up & wait” cycle. 

I made some good progress over the weekend with “The EURUSD Aggressive 
Scalper Tutorial” … I still have some issues to resolve, but I’m working 
through them, and I’m hoping it can be ready for release by the end of this 
upcoming weekend … I think it will help many of you with your trading by 
giving you a solid foundation for proper “setups” via short term [scalping] 
trading in the major liquid Dollar pairs that have extremely tight spreads 
[anywhere from 0.0 PIPS to usually no greater than 2 or 3/10ths of a PIP], 
and very low round turn [RT] commissions like we enjoy at Turnkey.

Here, late in the day, EURUSD trying to take out the high now, with a  
“vapors” move to the upside … just another leg in today’s FWD. Back at it 
tomorrow, this day being done an hour ago; if you make a trade now and it 
sours, you got no place to run to get it back. So, until tomorrow mi amigos 
… I’m outta here … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!