A GOOD DAY FOR OIL TO DIE [SO FAR]

“Trade crude oil & Natty Gas! … discover religion!!”

There will be blood, and rest assured every drop will be from specs … today seeing

so far a very choppy, uninspired trade in crude oil with a dog poo range … trading

conditions at Turnkey OK so far, but that doesn’t mean much when oil sits and

basically does nothing … corn spreads are moving faster this morning than oil.

Day over, and not surprisingly a “hurry up & wait” day [tomorrow worse?] for

most markets going into Wednesday’s FED clusterfark … how much oil reacts to

the FED remains to be seen, but with nothing else really moving, oil took the bait

and decided to sit this one out … and while the New York session [7 AM EST -

3 PM EST] 20 Day range MA in Natty Gas is 35.4 cents this week, today comes

right in on schedule at around 30 cents … both Natty Gas & Crude Oil, the ONLY

markets worth a shit when it comes to 1) CONSISTENT VIX, 2) heavy volume &

liquidity in the physical commodity space, and absence of the FED Lounge Lizards

and their QE CNTRL-P machine that manipulates cash settled markets with

ruthless abandon, and most importantly 4) “purer” charts with regard the trading

algorithm, that makes signals eye watering … nothing else has these 4 key

critical components … nothing … not traditional FX, not “Stock Bellies”, and

certainly not gold & silver.

Over the last month during off hours, including the time spent in the hospital, I

have spent a tremendous amount of time analyzing Natty Gas … how it trades, its

“fingerprint”, and how the crude oil trading algorithm relates to this market … and

it’s even better in Natty Gas than crude oil … to be sure, Natty Gas has its

moments of pure bat shit crazy [BSC], especially via weather … no market shows

any of us any favors … but what Natty Gas has that others don’t is “purity” of the

m1 charts, meaning they trend a whole lot more than they chop … enough of a

short term trend so that the algorithm’s scalps and/or day trades are

predominantly profitable to a high probability event … with good futures

volume & liquidity, slippage is minimal most of the time … sell the big red spike

down or buy the big green spike up, and it’s a different story … directly below,

the CME’s Natty Gas Volume & Open Interest table … and below that, the link

to the page.

click on histogram to enlarge

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.volume.html

I simply don’t know of 2 markets that give us more bang for the buck than oil &

Natty Gas, despite today’s shit range in oil [ughhhh! … about $2 in the New York

session, where the New York session 20 Day Range MA is about $2.78 … about

30% off] … Natty Gas, though, put in signals to drool over, and this market does

this just about every single day … I’m rearranging my priorities some, and

starting tonight / tomorrow my first market will be Natty Gas, and then crude oil

secondarily … only if these 2 markets are absolutely “dead in the water” [stick a

fork in him Jim!] will I look to the DOW30 … everything else can “pound sand”, as

they are simply NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN TERMS OF VIX to be meaningful

for profitability … sorry, but it’s true … a while back I noticed Natty Gas, but

sidestepped it in favor of crude oil … no more … quite frankly, it’s the single best

market traded on the MT4 and/or MT5 HANDS DOWN … this upcoming Sunday

blog update, I’ll be releasing the PDF manual for the updated trading algorithm

… simple … powerful … easy to comprehend and follow … and it won’t be long

in the tooth … most likely it’ll be under 15 pages, so you can get up and going in

a few minutes … the more volatile the market, the better the profitability from

algorithm signal opportunities.

One more thing … Natty Gas can be traded both long and short via the algorithm

… there is no bias to the algorithm, so both are in play … I’d be careful about

being short crude oil, but Natty Gas is a weather market, so have at it … no

trades today for the PAMM … tomorrow starts a new chapter in a new month

with energy being my focus … I don’t like saying it, but other markets are simply

dog poo … and while I’m somewhat pissed at myself cuz it took this long for me

to make the switch to these 2 markets, we’re here now and it’s time to move

forward and book coin … shiploads of cash are waiting for us, and it’s time to

sail and go get them! … onto tomorrow & screw the FED Lounge Lizards!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of  sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

 

SUNDAY UPDATE: THE BIG “MAYBE” PIVOT THIS WEEK

“The financial system is burning down!!”

There have surely been enough hints … the BOJ interventions, the Mary Daly

“wink wink, nod nod” maybe we could tighten “too much”, and Mr. Insider FED

himself at the WSJ giving the ultimate blessing by passing on the rumor … add to

that the abundance of horrible economic news coming out of Biden’s ‘Murica, and

bad news is good news once again in the upside down world of “Stonks” and

“Stock Bellies” … nothing says higher stock prices more than disastrous

economic and/or geopolitical news … “Supervolcano Yellowstone blows … 70%

of the U.S. is under 50 feet of volcanic ash … millions killed … stocks hit all time

highs on hopes the FED cuts interest rates! … [sub headline: women and

minorities hit hardest by racy-ist volcano.]”

And so maybe we get the “open secret” PIVOT [or pause] from the FED … we’ll

see at 2 PM EST on Wednesday … quite frankly, it doesn’t square with slaying

inflation like they say they want to do … political pressure no doubt coming from

the senile, incompetent, & corrupt “Taliban Joe”, but I doubt anybody listens to

this Doofus, and I can’t see anything but “buy the rumor, sell the fact” when the

dust clears for “Stock Bellies” … but when money goes FOMO, anything can

happen.

I have said this a million times, but it bears repeating … if the spread is right and

conditions are volatile enough, the market to concentrate in is crude oil … the

problem at Turnkey always has been the thieving HFT LP or group of HFT LP’S

they use, where one second the bid/ask spread can be 2 or 3 cents, and then blink

your eyes and it goes to 7 cents or some such shit … they use the “variable

spread concept” as plausible deniability in their pricing, always saying the same

thing when they screw an order … “DUH!, market conditions, DUH!”, which is

absolute horseshit … it simply gives them the excuse for slippage … and what

makes it particularly egregious, is the fact that their CFD is an average of front

month, second futures month, AND spot WTI cash, so you never know if the price

they quote is legit or bullshit … AND by pricing this way, they LESSEN overall VIX

in oil, while at the same time fucking everybody with slippage to boot … about

15% of the time during the New York session, you can’t trade it unless you totally

love giving money away for nothing … during the rest of the day, it’s about a

50/50 crap shoot whether or not pricing is fair or bullshit … but for the PAMM, it’s

all we got so I have to live with it.

What makes the energy complex [oil + Natty Gas] compelling to trade, given the

right conditions, is 1) good VIX, and 2) most of the time the m1 charts short term

“trend purer” than anything “Stock Bellies” or FX can offer, meaning fewer spikes

from Hell both up & down … not to say both oil and gas don’t have their bat shit

crazy [BSC] moments, cuz they do like ALL MARKETS, but from a trading

perspective, either scalping / day trading, you’re gonna get consistently better

moves from energy, and you’re gonna get more of them … and for those

wondering, I’m not sitting on my ass pouting cuz Turnkey sucks some of the time

in oil … I’m actively courting some other houses to specifically AND

EXCLUSIVELY trade oil in some format … in other words, I would only trade crude

oil … dunno yet how this is gonna shake out, but the “copy trade” format, if I can

CONSISTENTLY get the conditions I demand, might be a solution … we’ll see in

the days / weeks ahead … I’m talkin’ a “razor thin” cost to trade [spread + any

commissions] over futures, and the CFD is price based on the front month futures,

NOT an average like Turnkey uses.

And just in case nobody reading the blog has noticed, the CME feeling pressure

from the offshore community in oil CFD’s, has their own “MICRO” WTI FUTURES

CONTRACT, where a 1 lot volume is 100 barrels instead of the regular futures

contract size of 1,000 barrels … volume and open interest is directly below, along

with the link to the CME micro oil data.

click on histogram to enlarge

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/micro-wti-crude-oil.

volume.html

Of course, unless you’re nuts, there’s no way you’d want to trade futures over a

good CFD … for most of the world, futures profits are taxable, but CFD’s are not

cuz they are considered “bets” on price with the LP, so they fall under gambling

… in the U.S. all brokerage houses will require FULL KYC with documentation,

and all profits / losses from trading at the end of the year are reported to the U.S.

IRS via a 1099 … offshore brokerage houses report NADA TO NOBODY cuz there

is no legal requirement to do so in the jurisdiction they are domiciled … add to

that there isn’t any KYC whatsoever cuz deposits / withdrawals are done

exclusively in crypto [e.g., Bitcoin, or some of the stablecoins], even though

once deposited you can have the house switch to dollars … I’m not suggesting

anything to anybody here via “opinion”, I’M JUST STATING FACTS … So, a good

crude oil CFD that is only fractionally off futures prices is the way to go.

Directly below is this weeks 20 Day Range MA’s for selected pairs.

click on table to enlarge

Over the last month, crude has lost about 30 cents per barrel, per the 20 Day

Range MA in the New York session … it’s still more than adequate, and we haven’t

even hit winter yet … look for oil to explode once the ChiComs come out of COVID

restrictions [if they ever do], and ramp back up their economy … in the U.S.,

supplies are very tight with diesel especially inventoried low … last I read, only

28 days of supply on the East Coast, so distillate supply [diesel & gas] is

propping up crude’s price … things can certainly change, but for now OPEC+ is

telling Biden to “pound sand”, and the oil market is a potential time bomb ready

to go off … let’s hope here near term, Turnkey can keep their shit together so

we can participate … onto FED Lounge Lizard week! 

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of  sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

 

STUPIDITY ON STEROIDS

 

“FOMO “Stock Bellies” traders at work!!”

Yields higher [bad], inflation not going down [bad], AMZN with horrible earnings,

revenue miss [bad], and even worse guidance [bad] … so natch, “Stock Bellies”

melt up today with nary a break, put in another massive range to the upside, and

the DOW30 is up 6 days in a row on pure FOMO, up 3,200 index points on a

“hope & a prayer” that Spicoli “pivots” with rates come Wednesday … if there

ever was a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” this would be it … dunno what happens

Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday up to 2 PM EST, but if the Lounge Lizards

disappoint look out below … this is ridiculous, this is “stupid on steroids”.

Meanwhile FX looks confused as I’ve ever seen it, subjecting itself to reversals

& double reversals on smaller ranges, and yo-yo-ing up/down in smallish “Flying

Wedge of Death” conniptions of spikes from Hell, followed by enormous laughter

from scumbag bank LP’s gouging and front running order flow … the entire space

now a bag of flaming dog poo.

You can’t trade a market that goes straight up/down, unless you like pain

… don’t confuse brains with luck would be helpful as well, and if there isn’t any

corrective activity worth a shit, you sit … again, this is stupidity on steroids,

something “Stock Bellies” are want to do more often than not, and with CTA’s &

hedge funds stuck the wrong way in hundreds of billions off wrong positions,

the gamma squeeze has got to be hurting … and the only solution is to

“buy Mortimer, BUY!!” 

Crude oil back on track at Turnkey, so I’ll be moving over there for trades come

Monday … consistent VIX even when the range shrinks some from higher levels,

as this week has seen some really great algorithm signals … as always, it’s

always about the cost to trade it, and when it gets stupid you have to leave it

alone … I’d say that happens about 10% - 15% of the time with Turnkey’s thieving

oil LP’s, whoever they are [most likely a large HFT like Citadel or Virtu] … just

something we gotta deal with until I figure out a better oil trading solution, which

I’m working on diligently … when I got something tangible to report, my readers

here on the blog will be the first to know, so stay tuned.

No trades today in the DOW30 … this sitting is driving me nuts … I’m here to

trade, not watch paint dry … the algorithm is gold bars … in the DOW30 it’s not

cuz there weren’t any signals today, but the fact that there have been ZERO

decent signals after miniscule corrective activity … for 6 days in a row now, it’s

been straight up the wall with only very shallow breaks, that I don’t consider

good enough … crude on the other hand, if the cost to trade it is acceptable, has

CONSISTENTLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF BUY SIGNALS DAILY, NO MATTER IF

CRUDE GOES UP OR DOWN, OR IF THE RANGE FALLS BELOW THE 20 DAY

RANGE MA … it’s where I’d rather be given VIX, ranges, and profitability … FX

and “Stock Bellies” can’t hold a candle to oil on a consistent basis, and most of

the time market movement is of a “purer nature” that the whipsaw shit we

constantly see in the DOW30 with m1’s above 50 cents [which is retarded], and

sometimes over 100 index points in scope … I’m here to trade, not play craps or

roulette … not that oil can’t get bat shit crazy [BSC], cuz it can, but that is most

decidedly reserved for oil impacting news events [e.g., Russia invading Ukraine],

not normal routine trading … if a market won’t trade, or gets stuck in a range so

small to make it worthless, as today’s FX space showed, then screw ‘em … come

Sunday night I’ll be in oil, and unless 1) Turnkey gets completely stupid with the

spread, or 2) oil dies on the vine and trades like corn spreads, I’m staying in oil

cuz it gives us the best opportunities for profit during the day.

Blog update on Sunday, and I’ll be talking more about oil then … OUTTA HERE

… “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of  sunglasses 😎😎, and my own

Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

WE’VE JUMPED THE ELECTION SHARK WITH FETTERMAN

“Fetterman after he takes his human mask off!!”

What must the world think after seeing some of the most embarrassing clips

from a debate ever seen in political circles? … this guy Fetterman makes Biden

look sane & functioning … I ain’t buying this MSM stroke propaganda, for the

simple reason his doctor says he’s OK … we all know he isn’t, so who you

gonna believe, you’re lying eyes, or the Libtard hacks in the MSM who carry

water for DEM nutjobs? … from his mumbling & bumbling, he looks qualified

to run the FED.

MOAR! FOMO, as the world is convinced come Wednesday, the FED is gonna

PIVOT some how, some way … when billions [perhaps trillions] are caught the

wrong way, this is what happens when the panic sets in … for USDJPY, it’s new

lows, then new highs, now racing back towards the low in freight train style

… for the DOW30, it’s pure FOMO, just up, up, and away … oil trying to break

out to the upside.

USDJPY behaving like it never wants to go up again … and it’s no coincidence

the BOJ did what they did cuz they knew what was coming with coordination

… in fact, they didn’t waste $50 billion, they snookered the specs, sucked the

last nickel into short YEN, and then took all the money … at best, USDJPY looks

like the bias going forward is either flat to down, cuz in reality it’s got nothing to

do with Japan and everything to do with U.S. interest rates and the clueless

Dopes at the FED … when he loses to Oz, maybe Spicoli can bring him on as

communications coordinator … some days, you can’t dream this shit up, and

then it just happens … my goodness, the world is in trouble.

Too soon to tell how the new Brit PM is gonna make out … Cable looks

vulnerable, but it probably trades sideways to flat into the year end … again, it

depends on U.S. rates … the DOW30 looks like the best horse in the glue factory

at the moment, unless the FED disappoints next Wednesday … if that happens

look out below … but if not and there is some kind of pause, “Stock Bellies” look

supported for a year end rally, and that should make for decent trading, which is

all that matters.

One algorithm buy signal in USDJPY today … TURNKEY PAMM UP

FRACTIONALLY … looking ahead, the DOW30 is leading the way in terms of VIX,

and I expect VIX in FX to tale off some, cuz quite frankly it can’t handle much

more … that has an above average potential to create chop, and it wouldn’t

surprise me to see it … a lot up in the air in regards to FX, and into year end it

ain’t gonna get resolved … DOW30 trades tomorrow.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of  sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas