The 3-ring shitshow circus of central bank lies & propaganda, followed by math
whiz kids who can’t find a job in the private sector so they show up in
government, comes to an end today [for now] with the biggest propaganda pile
of horseshit known to mankind, in the form of NFP Idiocy … yes, the Dept. of
Unicorns & Fairy Tales has worked so hard this month to come up with more
new lies heaped upon old lies, just to keep the fantasy alive that the U.S.
economic picture has a pulse … where that pulse is, nobody really knows, cuz if
it wasn’t for part time jobs at Applebee’s & Chili’s waiting tables or serving
drinks, what would you think reality would look like?
Right now, if things are so good as Creepy Uncle “Taliban Joe” reminds us, how
come the Banana Republic is running $2 TRILLION DOLLAR DEFICITS? … when
the depression comes, as it surely will, what happens with $5 TRILLION DOLLAR
DEFICITS? … Grandma Yellen’s treasury dept., has already admitted that in
2 years WITH ROSY FORECASTS, INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL DEBT WILL HIT
$2 TRILLION DOLLARS ANNUALLY! … that’s what “they admit to” … imagine
what the real numbers will be if the rosy forecasts are in “error”? … and how the
fuck does that ever get paid off without hyperinflation, somebody in Libtard
Nation enlighten me? … and in the midst of this, the ChiComs are flooding their
system with printed Yuan, and the idiots over at the BOJ are about to lose total
control over the world’s largest pile of stinking debt, with YEN DEBT IN THE
QUADRILLIONS, all at super low interest rates that are now creeping higher!
And since I’m your “truth detector”, here’s some advice … “GOLD / SILVER /
CRYPTO [BITCOIN] is your financial salvation in coming weeks / months / years,
and you need to get your wealth OUT OF THE BANANA REPUBLIC ASAP, before
they either outright confiscate it, or tax it to death, and leave you financially
ruined cuz you have one more penny than somebody else … that they will do it,
there’s no doubt, it’s only a matter of “WHEN”, NOT “IF”! … there is no way out
of the “death spiral” the Banana Republic is in, only hyperinflation or
confiscating your wealth … and they won’t give you any warning when it
happens … remember, “it’s better to be 10 years too early, than 1 day too late!”
… if you’re late, you’re screwed!
Well now, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … misses all around to the downside
for the data, and it’s clear that rate hikes from the FED Lounge Lizards are
O.V.E.R.! … question is, with fiscal policy of the Banana Republic a first class
train wreck, and Treasury borrowing headed to the stratosphere, can rates go
lower and dollar FX pairs go higher? … we’ll see, but it sure looks like
uncertainty is likely to prevail for the foreseeable future.
Upon “Homer Simpson” reflection and “deep thoughts”, it’s pretty clear I made a
mistake … yes I know, hard to believe and all that, but the data doesn’t lie … quite
frankly, all of the crosses are “not so great” places to either scalp or day trade,
you’re better off simply trading the dollar pairs … it used to be certainly before
the 2008 financial crisis, and then placed in permanent stone on one of Moses’s
tablets after the great EURCHF debacle on January 15, 2015, that central banks
sang their own song on monetary policy … immediately following 1/15/2015 that
changed, and outside of the nutjobs at the BOJ, every other central bank in the
world started singing from the same hymnal … EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM!
… as a result, VIX collapsed, ranges dwindled, and the nature and scope of FX
trading changed forever … one of the biggest changes came about in the non
dollar crosses, where before 1/15/2023 4 out of 5 days saw both numerator and
denominator most likely go in opposite directions … now however, IT’S THE
EXACT OPPOSITE! … 4 out of 5 days sees a pair like GBPUSD be equal to or
exceed the range of any of the Cable crosses … and this leads cross traders
into a very big problem.
And that problem is simply this … what was once before, ain’t any more, and to
make matters worse, unless you recognize the switch scumbag bank LP’s are
gonna feast upon you as if your account was a free buffet! … 1) you got a higher
spread in the cross versus the dollar pair, yet 80% of the time you don’t get any
reward for that extra vig you pay … and 2) on average 4 days of the week sees
pathetic range in the cross, which leads to ever tighter scalps or trades in terms
of PIPS, and then when it explodes and surpasses the dollar pair, traders are
extremely hesitant to chase it cuz they know they’re pissing into the wind that
sees them not at a probability advantage … you end up cutting trades short in
order to make a buck, and then aren’t there when it explodes! … how on earth
does this help anybody?
Today a perfect example of this, where GBPUSD [Cable] has an approximate 200
PIP range [so far], and GBPAUD is sitting there with a 67 PIP range … WTF IS
THIS!? … well, both Cable & Aussie are moving together higher, and whatever
range in the cross comes about cuz the denominator influences the cross more
than the numerator … the other day, it was just the opposite, where AUDUSD
went up and Cable didn’t do Mr. Jack “Diddly” Squat … how many traders got to
capture that full ride on the trade pony? … my guess is “Hoover Dam” few!
On the surface, it would appear that EURUSD has the advantage over Cable, but
in watching both over time, IMHO EURUSD gaps more in price from bid to
another bid, even though the spread is slightly lower by a few tenths of a PIP,
than Cable … don’t get me wrong here, Cable has its moments, but on the whole
I think EURUSD is a somewhat rougher trade, especially when it gets moving
some … but even when it sits, the gap pricing is still there … DIRECTLY BELOW,
3 screenshots of GBPUSD from today in succession, the first from 14:00 server
time to 16:30 server time, the second from the NYSE open [16:30 server time] to
the London Fix [19:00 server time], and the third from 19:00 server time to 21:30
server time … the first chart has RM=1, RM=2, & RM=4 due to the fact that the
NFP comes at 15:30 and there was severe panic gap pricing upon release … the
other 2 charts I’ve left off RM=4 … from normal trading movements, unless there
are economic reports or “blah blah, yada yada” from central bank Apparatchiks,
99.9% of the time you won’t see any movement above RM=2 in any
significant way.
Looking at these 3 charts, notice that I’ve changed the ZERO LAG STOCHASTIC
OSCILLATOR [ZLSO] overbought and oversold levels [yellow lines] to 100 & 110
on the upside, and 0 & -10 on the downside … this oscillator can go past 100 and
go under 0, and these levels reflect better overbought or oversold conditions
… this will be reflected in the manual as well … and looking at the day, how
much better can the algorithm be at calling the turns? … granted, Cable is putting
in an overextended range based on its 20 Day daily & NY session Range MA, by
a factor close to 100% … so this is kind of an outlier, but it gives a good look at
what happens when SHTF and market sentiment abruptly changes form 5 - 6
weeks of dollar buying and attempting to get Cable under 1.21 - 1.20 and failing,
and then catching everybody and their pet rabbit with short positions and
watching the carnage as that melts away “el quicko mucho” … the vast majority
of days won’t see RM levels get above RM=2 [up or down], and most of the time
RM=1 nails support and resistance to the barn door! … and as you can probably
guess, I’ll be back in Cable come Sunday night for Monday’s trade for the PAMM.
No trades for the PAMM today, I wasted too much time post NFP looking for
decent long trades in EURAUD … and outside of the first move from the
downside at RM=3, and the subsequent small rally, there wasn’t
Mr. Jack “Diddly” Squat for movement in the crosses across the board
[excluding YEN, which I want nothing to do with] … in retrospect, I’ve known
for a good long time that the dollar pairs offered advantages, but I thought
[wrongly] with a much faster algorithm in place we could get as many trades
… NOPE! … I’ll also be adjusting my trading times, and be at the ready just
after the European open … given the uncertainty of the FED now, war
everywhere, and fiscal irresponsibility a given, ranges should stay elevated
from where they are now and maybe expand some … in any event, it doesn’t
really matter cuz the algo uses “zero lag” with both HULL & EMA in the
computer code to give us the fastest change in order flow you can get … and
you’ll notice, that when the “zero lag MA” [ZLMA] period 96 is steel blue
[up slope], and the 9 & 19 ZLMAs are plum & aqua respectively, the market
rallies with few and far between red m1’s … sometimes 1 m1, maybe 2 m1’s
usually small in scope … and at the turn, the algo is very, very fast in warning
you to get out and liquidate, and come back later … flip it around and when
the ZLMA period 96 is pink, it’s mostly red m1’s down, and the exact opposite
occurs … this is not by accident, but rather it reflects scumbag bank LP
activity and how they fade order flow and screw specs … that’s why I say,
“the algorithm as presently constructed, makes the scumbag bank LP WORK
FOR YOU … let the “Hoover Dam” bank take it higher!, you don’t stand a
chance when you’re against them! … let them do the work … it repeats
endlessly, hour after hour, day after day, the same process at work to
separate specs from their money … don’t be one of ‘em!!”
Over at IQCENT, good scalping via EURUSD today, with a very robust 132 PIP
range … who do we have to kill to get this every day!? … “The Syndicate” UP
APPROXIMATELY 0.3% on very light volumes cuz I absolutely hate / detest/
stinkin’ NFP Friday’s with a passion … rarely does anything good come out of
any NFP Friday, but I have to admit this one was pretty good … next week sees
volumes go up, now that this shitshow circus of data & Apparatchiks is over
for now … I’ll have more on Cable via Sunday’s blog update, and I’m aiming for
a next Sunday release of the latest version of the scalping algorithm … it will be
more comprehensive in scope than prior versions with plenty of examples of
how I handle trades under varying circumstances … stay tuned!
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
