LIFE IN THE CRYPTO NUTHOUSE

 

“We’re all Chimps just chasing ENDLESSLY REPEATING chart patterns!!”

Yes, that seems “normal” doesn’t it? … after getting monkey hammered into

oblivion late yesterday afternoon, both ETH & BTC go orbital in the Asian and

early European session, and I hit my screen this AM, and ETH has already got

an approximate $470 range … sure, perfectly normal in the nuthouse located

in “The Twilight Zone” … worse for BTC, where I don’t have a clue how anybody

mitigates risk exposure in a market that goes up/down at the speed of light

… get on the wrong side of this trade, and the HFT LP will skewer you worse

than shishkabob at a barbecue. Normal models of volatility “off the charts”,

especially the m15, where RM=4 isn’t holding anything … these are dangerous

markets!

RM = 3 & RM=4 HOLDING SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE ON THE M1, reflecting

the highest volatilities we’ve ever seen in ETH … bid/offer spread is all over the

place, so you can’t buy up spikes and expect any decent fill … today starts the

same as every other day in recent memory, with Asia & Europe blowing it up,

and then NY in an “extend & pretend” keep the gains while setting off sell stops

and then rinse & repeat … we have yet to see Asia and/or Europe maul the shit

out of crypto and then for the NY session to bring it back up … how likely is

this to continue?

Well here we are with this massive “bigly & yuge” range and the criminal,

money laundering NYSE open about to commence, and the last 4 hours in

ETH a complete chopfest bag of shit, giving new meaning to the “Flying Wedge

of Death” [FWD] yo-yo from Hell … typical … the “extend & pretend” starting

early today … seriously, what’s left? … maybe we get some movement maybe

we don’t, but history isn’t kind when shit like this happens, and we got a

“Twilight Zone” range for the day and the day hasn’t even started!

In this month-long runup in price, we’ve yet to see Asia & Europe go lower and

then have positive flows in NY, with both the m15 and m1 going higher,

WITHOUT the range already being blown to shit earlier in the day … we’ve

gotten some FOMO flows to be sure, but in order for those to work profitably,

you better see action heretofore unseen in markets … and of course, that’s what

we’ve seen! … but for how long? … you keep buying FOMO, and when it burns

out you’re screwed … remember, EVERYTHING has to happen at some point,

but that doesn’t mean it’s the optimal way to trade … hang your hat on

consistency, not wishful thinking that may or may not ever happen in your

lifetime … how do you make a living from that?

The upshot from this setup scenario that we’ve seen lately is not optimal … from

a scalping perspective, it means the m15 is spending way too much time in

negative price slope for the session I’m trading [NYSE], and that usually means

rough and quick m1’s up followed by nasty ass downdrafts … flip that around

and I’ll do larger volumes cuz the “wind” is at our backs for the trade, but I’m

not about to get blindsided by killer m1’s going deep red and forcing me to sell

a “Thelma & Louise” trip down … you wanna see slippage? … trust me, there’ll

be slippage that will choke a horse!

Only one PAMM trade today in ETH … every day waking up and seeing price

already having exploded higher in Asia or early Europe is bullshit … WE’RE UP

SLIGHTLY … ONTO TOMORROW. 

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

AWAITING APPARATCHIK PROPAGANDA

 

“Success, Inc.!!”

We’re patiently awaiting FED bullshit, and from the looks of it so is Bitcoin

… ranges again suck today, most of the action came during the Asian session

… it’s been a chopfest so far.

I don’t view leaving rates unchanged as positive … with ALL THE RATE CUTS

STILL BAKED INTO THE CAKE, AND THE LEVEL OF HOPIUM & PROPAGANDA

still off the charts, unless Spicoli says something truly stupid at his presser

[always a chance], where’s the FOMO gonna come from? … quite frankly,we

need to see BTC above 44 - 45K again, to 1) blister the FTX sellers, and 2) get

the ETF FOMO juices flowing into the April halving … and if by chance that 50K

level goes, look the Hell out above!

Powell uttering bullshit … nothing has legs … another wasted day of chop

… onto tomorrow.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

DANCING NUMBERS ON A SCREEN IS ALL WE GOT

 

“Does it even matter what we trade? … NOPE!!”

Fact is, you have to see and analyze the information given you, then act before

the vast majority of other traders get the message … then when they pump the

market [if you’re long], you have to be willing to give it back to ‘em at a higher

price… just the opposite for shorts … if you wait for the “turn”, the LP’s will turn

you into toast … doesn’t matter what happens next, you move onto the next

trade setup … every trader uses & relies on charts, and the technical wizardry

they think holds the key to profits … the problem is they ALL LAG … except one,

and that’s volume.

Does it matter what we trade? … NOPE, it doesn’t, only that it doesn’t have

ridiculously low VIX that makes everything a chopfest not worth paying attention

to  … you may think you have a handle on “fun-durr-mentals” [whatever they are]

for a particular market, but you’re only kidding yourself cuz nobody has a clue

… then, it breaks down to trade dynamics … and at the source of every move up

or down, is volume … trade when your market has the busiest and best conditions

for volume AND leave the rest alone.

Quite frankly, I’m getting disgusted with the “Stock Bellies” … VIX should be

substantially higher but it’s not … 0DTE shouldn’t be the determining factor in

price volatility and up/down movement, but it is … and 150% depending on FED

PIE HOLES that most importantly micromanage the “Spoos” … I’m sick & tired of

being sick & tired of the scumbag LP’s we have to deal with in market CFD’s

… while there are no “Boy Scouts” in FX, generally they’re cleaner than the scum

hanging out in CFD’s pretending to make a market … both the NDX100 and the

DOW30 are notorious for ridiculous “out of nowhere” scam bids [selling] and

offers [buying], almost rivaling gold for bullshit fills … but since we can adjust

volumes to our risk/reward model, and choose the size of our trades that suits us,

it doesn’t really matter what you trade as long as 1) the total cost to trade it is

LOW, and 2) intraday VIX allows for good movement throughout the day … and

lately, trading conditions in “Stock Bellies” just keep getting worse, worse-er,

and worse-er-er-er.

Quite frankly, I’m not asking for anything special … simply fair fills on the market

AND CONSISTENT VIX during the day … apparently, that’s too much from the

manipulator's perspective, as getting either is becoming harder and harder

… ETHUSD appears to have both, but lately it’s had problems with gaps higher

and lower out of nowhere to nowhere, where the only purpose I can see is a bunch

of LP’s or large traders running stops to fade them … it feels coordinated, and the

problem is these gaps are too large for the current ranges ETH is putting in … so

if you happen to get caught in one of ‘em, you got a problem cuz how you gonna

make it back? … the moves & VIX in the market aren’t sufficient to make the loss

back without a lot of hard work trading.

Granted, “Stock Bellies” are in the “88/6/6” paradigm, and no other market

complex has that … but so what, when the back “6” shows up and beats the Hell

out of price and there is ZERO CORRECTIVE ACTIVITY? … I want to trade it … am

I the only one? … a market needs to project fear on both sides of the equation,

not simply a one-way street depending on 0DTE options.

Now into the New York afternoon, where we “hurry up & wait” for FED minutes at

2 PM EST … new high new low, then new high and then new low … then back to

the middle … again with the reversal bullshit, and with very little volume or

interest, it doesn’t take much for some of these Asshats to run stops and have

their way with price … and that’s what we got, all inside a ridiculous range waiting

for the Lounge Lizards to “WOW” us with their brilliance … somebody wake me

when this shit trades again … if ever … what happens if “Stock Bellies” get stuck

in a range of 200 index points over the next 10 years?

Time for some “Back to the Future” trading with something that moves, like

GBPJPY, although you wouldn’t know if from today’s “hurry up and wait”

adventure courtesy of the Lounge Lizards … FX like everything else, and that’s

watching and keeping one eye on the “Spoos” for “risk on / risk off” [RORO] while

sitting and doing nothing … time to grab my heat shield to defend myself in the

“Dragon trade” as it’s known, and simply follow the volume … everything is there

we need, question is can we get in and then exit when we want … I think so, and in

the days ahead we are about to find out!, especially if “Stock Bellies” continue to

waffle and not do Mr. Jack Squat … about the only complex that has been

consistent lately with halfway decent VIX are the FX pairs … gold, oil, and

“Stock Bellies” are turning into a pile of shit, where’s there’s nothing but stop

runs and chop with too high spreads & slippage.

Well now, that was wonderfully anticlimactic wasn’t it? … we waited all day for

this? … the usual “scumbaggery & fuckery” from the usual suspects on display

right after the release, natch … but within a couple of minutes, it’s back to a more

normal trading environment, with somewhat higher movement but not much

… Cable/Yen not acting strongly, it seems to me the minutes haven’t fooled

anybody … as far as trade execution goes, it’s much easier to trade 1 - 5 lot

volumes [10 times the index per 1 lot] @ SIMPLE FX, than it is to trade 10 - 50 lot

volume [1 times the index per 1 lot] @ COINEXX … I simply don’t trust Coinexx

LP’s to make a fair and honest market at those volumes … FX is a different story,

but it’s way past the London Fix and Europe has been closed for over 3 hours

… unless the minutes showed us something out of the ordinary that was a

surprise, all FX is gonna do this late in the day is react to what the “Spoos” do,

and even at that not by very much … and we got no surprises from this [see my

shocked face] … no trades for the PAMM today, simply cuz with very subpar

LOW ranges, it was  a total chopfest across the board, waiting for Lounge

Lizard fairy dust to save markets … it turns out the “fairy dust” was just plain

dirt … onto tomorrow. 

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

THE LOUNGE LIZARD FIX IS IN

 

“Upon learning the FED is a criminal organization!!”

The fix is in for tomorrow … expect “Stock Bellies” to explode higher, then at the

presser Spicoli throws ice on everything and down goes Frazier … only “shock &

awe” on the rate front from Spicoli is gonna get a negative reaction … anything

less than uber hawkish is gonna be seen as a pivot or a pause coming up shortly

… the “pain trade” is alive and well.

Today’s markets a bag of dog poo as everybody waits for tomorrow at 2 PM EST

… not unexpectedly, the DOW30 a real chopfest today, with again seeing

reversals all over the place … new lows beget rallies, and new highs beget

breaks … nothing can sustain itself and really move anywhere … the “Trading

Ratio” [TR] in DOW30 is fine, but as you’d expect ranges are very subpar … that

will change tomorrow and beyond … no trades today in this bag of slop … onto

tomorrow.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

SPICOLI PIVOT PUKES

“Surprise, I’m sick of raising rates!!”

After that clusterfark performance yesterday, does Spicoli now send out his

Lounge Lizard Minions to walk back “moderation” [a/k/a a pivot], or was this a

scam yet to be played out, and it’s full speed ahead on rate rises? … so far, the

FX space is convinced it’s a pivot, and that U.S. rates have peaked and are now

heading lower … I would debate that, wondering how a 10 YR. Treasury rate in

the mid 3’s makes any sense whatsoever when “real” inflation [not the

government bullshit barometer] is above 10% … and to add insult to injury, you

have to pay taxes on that “ghost” income.

And as pretty much is the norm now, the Asian session goes bat shit crazy [BSC]

in USDJPY, rendering it a chopfest for the rest of the world after Mrs. Watanabe &

gal pals get finished and pass it on to Europe, and from there the U.S., where it

can die a slow “chopfest” death … cue the broken record … “WTF, do I have to

move to frickin’ Thailand to get some decent trading action?” … however, both

Cable and EURUSD are picking up the slack well today while YEN fiddle farts

around and probes lower levels grudgingly … as I write, EURUSD has a

“Trading Ratio” [TR] = ~ 5.4, which is excellent … FOMO in full throttle as shorts

panic and cover, and long position holders come back in looking for more in the

weeks ahead … not sure we’re gonna get it, but who cares, I’m a trader not a

frickin’ analyst!

What we’ve seen so far today, since shortly after Europe opened is straight up

in EURUSD … any corrective activity we have seen has been very shallow in

terms or price and time … that doesn’t translate very well for traditional trading,

cuz we need to see longer corrections for statistical reliability … but when any

market goes FOMO, it goes until it burns itself out, usually multiple hours later,

and then starts to correct … and that corrective activity is usually a trap cuz the

market has burned itself out and left ZERO buyers in the short term, and so

corrective activity becomes deeper than most would want to see, and in many

cases starts to hit off sell stops … however, with binaries the only statistical item

that matters is “what happens in the next 60 seconds”, not where is the market

moving over the short term … EURUSD today giving excellent buy signals for

use in binaries, with limited scope for use in regular trading … either way, I don’t

care as long as the TR is good.

As we move past the London Fix and into the New York afternoon, this isn’t a

normal Thursday FX trade the day before NFP … far from it … and while USDJPY

has been choppy with a bias lower all day, even now some 2 hours after the Fix,

the TR is good at ~ 4.5 - 5.0 … ditto with EURUSD & Cable as well, although the

PIP moves in YEN have been larger … great for binary option “bets” [a/k/a

“trades”] … and while NFP usually moves something, this time around given the

big rallies in FX, there’s gonna be Hell to pay if payrolls comes in hot and rates

rise … the FOMO to the upside has been strong cuz of Spicoli, and with new long

positions on the books from specs, it’s danger time once again as markets are

drastically getting ahead of themselves.

Only one algorithm trade today in EURUSD … PAMM UP SLIGHTLY … I got to my

screens late, had some technical issues throughout the day, and passed on

some buy signals … in retrospect that was a mistake given today’s action

… tomorrow sees NFP Idiocy once again, so another fun filled “Spike-A-Rama”

morning, oh joy oh fun … can’t hardly wait … onto tomorrow.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

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