SPICOLI PIVOT PUKES

“Surprise, I’m sick of raising rates!!”

After that clusterfark performance yesterday, does Spicoli now send out his

Lounge Lizard Minions to walk back “moderation” [a/k/a a pivot], or was this a

scam yet to be played out, and it’s full speed ahead on rate rises? … so far, the

FX space is convinced it’s a pivot, and that U.S. rates have peaked and are now

heading lower … I would debate that, wondering how a 10 YR. Treasury rate in

the mid 3’s makes any sense whatsoever when “real” inflation [not the

government bullshit barometer] is above 10% … and to add insult to injury, you

have to pay taxes on that “ghost” income.

And as pretty much is the norm now, the Asian session goes bat shit crazy [BSC]

in USDJPY, rendering it a chopfest for the rest of the world after Mrs. Watanabe &

gal pals get finished and pass it on to Europe, and from there the U.S., where it

can die a slow “chopfest” death … cue the broken record … “WTF, do I have to

move to frickin’ Thailand to get some decent trading action?” … however, both

Cable and EURUSD are picking up the slack well today while YEN fiddle farts

around and probes lower levels grudgingly … as I write, EURUSD has a

“Trading Ratio” [TR] = ~ 5.4, which is excellent … FOMO in full throttle as shorts

panic and cover, and long position holders come back in looking for more in the

weeks ahead … not sure we’re gonna get it, but who cares, I’m a trader not a

frickin’ analyst!

What we’ve seen so far today, since shortly after Europe opened is straight up

in EURUSD … any corrective activity we have seen has been very shallow in

terms or price and time … that doesn’t translate very well for traditional trading,

cuz we need to see longer corrections for statistical reliability … but when any

market goes FOMO, it goes until it burns itself out, usually multiple hours later,

and then starts to correct … and that corrective activity is usually a trap cuz the

market has burned itself out and left ZERO buyers in the short term, and so

corrective activity becomes deeper than most would want to see, and in many

cases starts to hit off sell stops … however, with binaries the only statistical item

that matters is “what happens in the next 60 seconds”, not where is the market

moving over the short term … EURUSD today giving excellent buy signals for

use in binaries, with limited scope for use in regular trading … either way, I don’t

care as long as the TR is good.

As we move past the London Fix and into the New York afternoon, this isn’t a

normal Thursday FX trade the day before NFP … far from it … and while USDJPY

has been choppy with a bias lower all day, even now some 2 hours after the Fix,

the TR is good at ~ 4.5 - 5.0 … ditto with EURUSD & Cable as well, although the

PIP moves in YEN have been larger … great for binary option “bets” [a/k/a

“trades”] … and while NFP usually moves something, this time around given the

big rallies in FX, there’s gonna be Hell to pay if payrolls comes in hot and rates

rise … the FOMO to the upside has been strong cuz of Spicoli, and with new long

positions on the books from specs, it’s danger time once again as markets are

drastically getting ahead of themselves.

Only one algorithm trade today in EURUSD … PAMM UP SLIGHTLY … I got to my

screens late, had some technical issues throughout the day, and passed on

some buy signals … in retrospect that was a mistake given today’s action

… tomorrow sees NFP Idiocy once again, so another fun filled “Spike-A-Rama”

morning, oh joy oh fun … can’t hardly wait … onto tomorrow.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

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