Perhaps the biggest problem facing traders / investors in 2023 is gonna be
generating “alpha” [a/k/a “yield”] … stock markets don’t automatically go up,
there’s gonna be a lame duck, criminally senile Dope as Preezy, energy prices
have a high probability of going sharply higher, inflation is nowhere near being
“contained”, and the Lounge Lizards at the FED are Hellbent on raising rates
and keeping them there for a lot longer than people think … I mean, what can
possibly go wrong here?
Crude oil, barring a complete collapse of the world economy, should base
around current levels and go higher … “Stonks” can be stuck in mud for a very
long time, and FX is a total minefield of central bank manipulation of VIX … and
while I said the other day there are 2 markets to focus on, there are actually 3
… I left gold out, but it’s as viable as a good vehicle as any other asset in the
“Phyz space” … crypto I’m afraid, is in “nuclear winter”, and it’s gonna take a
very long time before that space goes FOMO North again … think gold in the
1980’s to 9/11/2001 … didn’t do Mr. Jack Squat … sure, gold as a trading vehicle
has “warts”, not the least of which is the LBMA and the scumbag dealer banks
that make a market [I use the term loosely] … but a closer look at gold with the
present day trading algorithm, and the modeling behavior of our favorite pet rock
looks great … not necessarily from a scalping mentality, but from a day trading
positional perspective … what’s needed is a consistent bid/offer spread, and for
the most part we have that, right around 25 cents, give or take a few pennies
depending … and that yields a “Trading Ratio” [TR] most days above 3, which
means gold is good to go to trade … if not, leave it alone … for the most part,
though, record setting rate increases by the Morons at the FED haven’t hurt gold
like past historical periods where rates rose … and with the Chicoms buying like
there’s no tomorrow, to no doubt eventually back the Yuan with gold
convertibility, and the fact the CNTRL-P machine is still going “Brrrrrrrrrrrrr”
24/7/365, 2023 looks set to see gold shine … when and for how long,
who knows? … trade it, don’t date it! … bottom line is that I’m putting gold back
into the trading mix, giving us 3 markets to slay.
In the energy sector, although I’ll still post analytics for Natty Gas, as a trading
vehicle in the CFD space, it’s simply not competitive with other markets … way
too expensive to trade, as the bid / offer spread is simply too high … as for the
DOW30, the main warts plaguing this market are 1) inconsistent spread,
2) slippage that can be horrendous, and 3) spikes from Hell … on the plus side it’s
simply it moves, and the ranges are usually pretty good most days … with gold
and crude oil, both long and short trades should be considered when appropriate,
while the DOW30 operates and trades in the “88/6/6” paradigm … not saying
don’t ever get short, but the opportunities are few and far between for
hefty profits.
Of the 3 markets, the DOW30 is my least favorite, while gold and crude oil offer
better opportunities consistently overall day-after-day … should be / will be a
very profitable year coming up, with the world facing a myriad of problems I don’t
see getting anywhere near solved … one look at “world leaders”, and it’s a cinch
they fuck things up even worse than they are now, led by “Taliban Joe” and his
crew of Communists.
Turning to today’s “Slots-A-Rama”, the casino is facing the Holiday period, and
so trading stupidity is taking a breather … despite that, gold getting “monkey
hammered” today on a stronger dollar, and some light liquidation of positioned
longs in the oil complex … “Stock Bellies” looking not so good, and I wonder if
the SP500 3600 level can hold going forward … if not, both gold and crude get
mauled like a baby seal at a Japanese whale hunt … it could get ugly in Q1 2023
… the DOW30 and gold with very good ranges today given the calendar, with
only crude oil seeing depressed range levels … for the most part, players in
crude have closed the year, and unless there is some kind of news that
addresses either supply or demand, I would expect lackluster interest until we
hit 1/2/2023 … we’ll see.
Of the 3 markets, from a technical perspective, only gold looks anywhere near
positive for further gains … the other 2 got major hurdles to climb for price to
advance, and there’s gonna have to be news of some sort for that to happen
… quite frankly, I don’t see it until Christmas & New Year celebrations are over
and done with … could be wrong, but if I am, what’s the catalyst that starts the
fire to the upside?
Crude oil today, once again, shining like the brightest star in the sky at the end of
the Asian session into Europe, and then it’s give it all back plus some … new
highs, then new lows, then back to the middle some … wrap it all up, and it barely
has a $2.50 range for the day, which has come very late in the day … watching the
trading action, just way too many m1’s that go nowhere, followed by m1’s that go
bat shit crazy [BSC] … this skews the TR obviously, and even if you’re on the right
side of the market, you really gonna sit there and tell me you want to be in crude
hour after hour to make 20 cents? … and then in 3 minutes it goes 70 cents up or
down … now what? … this is the hallmark pattern of inconsistent VIX that plague
most markets currently, and the low to non existent volume plays right into this
… so while DOW30 and gold had decent trading action, crude oil didn’t … we’ll
see what tomorrow brings, but I’m expecting trading desks to clear out about half
to 1 hour after the NYSE open … after that, fugetabouit! … no trades today in
crude for the PAMM, the conditions not good enough and the TR not high enough
… let’s see how gold reacts tomorrow … has the potential to be the best of the 3.
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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