QUANTUM MECHANICS & TRADING … OOF!

 

“The parallels are truly scary, freaky stuff!”

Nobody truly understands Quantum Mechanics [QM] … does anybody truly 

understand trading financial markets? They both defy logic and common 

sense, and while one has crude approximations of what “moves” look like in a 

2-dimensional plane [trading], the other defies visualization and is purely 

explained by mathematics. Both rely on “probability wave functions”, and 

squirm & protest all you want, but that’s the way it is.

Which, brings us face to face with another bullshit August day, where at 00:30 

to 00:35 [server time] last night, thirty minutes into the new day in Asia, the 

“Chuckleheads” did their thing and blew EURUSD out in 5 minutes, thus 

buying the high like they always do … and of course, for the next 15 hours, 

EURUSD literally still cannot decide WTF to do but chop … “where in the 

probability tail risk curve is this”? Good grief, what a pile of shit … literally, 

figuratively, metaphysically, whatever … and like I said yesterday, the 

European session a complete fucking joke with zero movement anywhere 

… they’re literally useless.

Turning to today’s EURUSD market … “well, that escalated quickly didn’t it”? 

… of course once Europe is closed, cuz they don’t do shit anymore 

… apparently new all time highs in the SP500 means EURUSD rallies, cuz 

quantum mechanics … makes as much sense as anything else … remember 

Turkey? … neither does anybody else, except if you’re short and now is the 

time they all swear off “correlation trades” forever.

A shipload of trades today … PAMM down slightly more than $150.

Ain’t the EURUSD algorithm’s fault … it shined, I didn’t, cuz very simply I 

screwed up a buy order that I made a sell … why? … I asked the dog, and he 

doesn’t know either … I saw red, clicked red, and then said, “WTF did I do 

that for”? … was thinking long, was ready to buy, and then clicked sell 

… “Oy vey”, got no excuses except I’m a retarded kitten … covered it but it 

cost us about $120, but more importantly it cost us a long trade that more 

than likely would have been about a $300+ winner, maybe more cuz it came 

right off the bottom.

Late in the New York day, and EURUSD bid/offer via Turnkey’s vaunted LP’s 

is a total fucking joke … “you know, the guys who have deeeeeeep, sooooooooo 

deeeeeeep liquidity with Tier 1 banks, the largest and best in the world 

… yea right, I already emailed them and asked if this is a joke, or do you really 

have & use the worst fucking scumbag LP’s in the world”? Oh wait … I forgot 

… “duh, market conditions, duh”. And with Asia closed [fuck Europe], we got 

nobody but the scumbags at JPM, Vampire Squid, & Citibank to fill orders 

… some choice huh?… “if you trade, who would you like to be mugged by”? If 

it wasn’t so serious, it’d be funny as hell. Fortunately, I’ve been able to sidestep 

most of this, but one order got a fill ½ a PIP off the offer, but that’s about it.

So yea, the EURUSD algo is completely GOLDEN, and it’s going to be a 

stellar performer in the future … Cousin It put a ‘post it’ note on my screen

when I took a little boys room break … “Hey, buy means buy, not sell, OK? 

… Just helpin’ you out”. Good luck finding your combs, it’d be a shame if they 

disappeared.

Onto tomorrow, where we got FED minutes in the afternoon, but I don’t think 

it means anything. We’ll see if the “Chuckleheads” panic again tonight in Asia 

with another blowout to the upside … whenever the up move is over, you can 

count on Asia to buy the highs early before it goes lower, cuz it’s the classic 

fade signal they are famous for and repeat endlessly in every market.

I apologize for the screw up today … seriously, some days I wonder, but it’s 

part of the biz … more importantly, though, our EURUSD algorithm 

performed as well as you would want it to … that’s good news going forward. 

And with that, I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos 

… Onward & Upward!! PAMM Spreadsheet will be back soon.

Have a great day everybody!!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND

OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN

“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN

FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND

START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO

“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

 

TEACHABLE MOMENT DAY IN GBPUSD ALGORITHM

 

“Remember … he who panics first, gets to panic again later!”

A very “teachable moment” today in GBPUSD, and I’m glad it came sooner 

rather than later … directly below today’s M15 candlestick chart with the 

GBPUSD algorithm. 

 

It should become obvious to anyone that has been around markets longer than 

about 1 day, to realize and understand that the main limitation of the Cable 

algorithm is, quite frankly, “chop” … and especially “chop” around the blue 

box … cuz really, what’s the difference between “chop” here at the boundaries, 

versus anything you would get following any type of MA’s [moving averages]? 

… well, of course, the answer is nothing, they both have the same problem. If 

every day, the market was “required” to move away from the first M30 

[2 M15’s], we’d have guaranteed trading profits and found the “holy grail” of 

trading! “Alas, Skippy, come on down from the clouds, cuz there ain’t no such 

thing”!

So, as today so elegantly provides, it was a nothing day filled with “chop”, and 

a slight move lower hunting for stops, before it came roaring back to about 

where it started … and while anything can happen from now to the “official” 

close at 8 P.M. EST, where it sits now is “unched” on the day with another  

“doji” pattern on the daily candlestick. “Oy is an element best avoided at all 

costs”!

And so the question becomes for every trader, “where do you pull the plug on 

movement around the blue box boundaries to avoid getting chopped up all day 

long with small losing trades that go nowhere”? And for me personally, that 

number is “3” [three] on any side of the blue box … and you’ll notice above a 

white “X” on the chart … that’s where I “pulled the plug” on trading today, 

even though up ‘till that point I hadn’t made a trade … from that “X” on, it 

can do what it wants without me, cuz I know from a probability perspective, 

that from that point going forward the rest of the day, there isn’t a very high 

probability the market is going to make a sustained move anywhere, and all 

that is gonna happen, is that I take positions and find myself “trapped” by 

gapping ticks that go up or down 3 - 5 PIPS in less than a second. “You sell 82’s 

and it goes to 80.9, and then before you can get to the “F” in “WTF was that?”, 

it’s 84 or 85 bid on it’s way to 88 2 seconds later where you liquidate your short, 

and by the time you close the liquidate box and get back to the screen, it’s back 

at 81 … no worse feeling in the world, and it comes from buying or selling “in 

the hole”, and it puts you at an immediate disadvantage to the market and 

subsequently forces you out”.

In the GBPUSD manual, I don’t cover this, for the simple reason every trader 

is different in far how out they want to go … my personal “max” has always 

been “3” [three], but that’s me … you could be 4, 6, 9, or whatever to the end of 

the day … my point is, it’s gonna have to be something or else you get “monkey 

hammered” with losses, and end up losing a helluva lot more than bargained 

for on a day with nothing going on. Directly below, the M30 in GBPUSD for 

August 1, 2017, where the market had one of these kinds of days, and even 

though it went about 20 PIPS, it came back to the blue box way to many times 

… my guess is, if you attempted to keep trading it all the way to the end, you 

got chopped up pretty badly … no need for that, cuz it doesn’t happen that 

often; simply call it quits and come back tomorrow. EASY PEEZEE!

One of the big reasons I didn’t get short or long early, on any of the breaches of 

the blue box boundaries, is that the retracements off of all of these, both short 

and long, never came back around in that classic “teacup handle turn” I’ve 

written about before … in other words, as an example from the long side, sure 

it breached 1.3608 a number of times, but every time it did, when it topped out 

and started to retrace down, it never stopped and started to go back up again 

and threaten the high, it just kept going down back into the blue box … ditto, 

only reverse on the short side, and this is the main reason, I don’t want to buy 

rallies out of the blue box, or sell breaks out of the blue box, cuz it can easily 

trap you and come right back … if it’s good, it will stop, retrace a little and 

then move. Take a look again from the other day when I “FUBAR’ed” the 

perfect sell, directly below … the sell isn’t at the breach, the sell is the blue 

rectangle I’ve put in on the retracement back up, and when that rolled over, 

“THAT WAS THE SELL POINT”!

 

Today, we didn’t get any tradeable movement away from the blue box until the 

orange arrow #5, and even that was a complete terror on the way down, as all it 

did was break 4 rally 3 the entire time, with some small sets of sell stops set off 

below 1.36500 … and every time the market hit those stops, the next 

millisecond saw price rise by 2 - 4 PIPS … and when you start seeing that, you 

are either at the low, or very, very close … and when it turns, it’s “lights out” to 

the upside, taking no prisoners and not coming back.

Another reason I’m not really in “sell mode”, is the fact that, “just how many 

days in a row, and how many PIPS does this stuff continue to go lower with no 

move higher”? We’ve been down now 12 trading days over 800 PIPS … and 

you’re beginning to see serious support emerge on any moves lower. The 

action I’m seeing, is reminiscence of bottoming formations … they take some 

time to unfold, and the key is lower highs every day in the series of moves lower 

… well, we’ve got both now, but it’s starting to get very choppy and ragged, and 

we have some HR1 trendlines from the top that are starting to become relevant 

and bear watching … cuz when the trade thinks the bottom is in, and it’s time 

to cover some short positions, look the hell out on the upside, cuz it will be quick 

and vicious in scope … something like 60 - 100+ PIPS in 35 minutes, with 

straight up panic and gaps at the top to take out buy stops … we aren’t there 

yet, but we are getting “Hoover Dam” close. And I’m betting it will coordinate 

perfectly with the GBPUSD algorithm, and after going lower, it comes back up 

and through the blue box and simply goes bananas to the upside … could be 

tomorrow NFP Friday, Monday, or Tuesday, or even later, but it’s coming, and 

the longer it takes the stronger it will be … right now, Cable is a “coiled spring” 

about ready to explode.

Turning to today’s GBPUSD market … no trades today, simply cuz there was 

no trading to do … market didn’t make any serious move until the 5th orange 

arrow, and even then it didn’t go down much, before coming back quickly.

Tomorrow’s NFP Friday, and so we got that to deal with, but watch a breach of 

the daily candlestick highs for some serious buy stops … who knows when it 

comes, but a surprising weak jobs report could be the ticket … in any event, if 

that’s the case, it’ll be fast and brutally vicious to the upside … I’m hoping 

Cable goes slightly lower, and then comes back through the blue box, and if 

that happens, things could get equally exciting … it won’t last long, but who 

cares, cuz if I’m long and it’s gapping higher, we’re gonna be selling the short 

term top … we’ll see what happens … I’m outta here for a very cold one 

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet is fixed, I just haven’t had time to make the entries … I’ll 

post updated results tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND

OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN

“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN

FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND

START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO

“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!