CENTRAL BANK BLUFFS ARE BEING CALLED OUT

 

“How long can the BOJ’s bluffs work!?”

It’s not only the BOJ who’s bluffing, the ECB every day sends out Apparatchiks

to hawk rate hikes … the intention to keep EURUSD above par to the dollar … but

for the most part, it’s the insane BOJ that is bluffing TRILLIONS to keep yield

curve control [YCC] … and since they’re printing trillions of YEN to keep YCC,

they’re also the ones solely responsible for a depreciating currency … so, to

B.I. Itch about a rapidly falling YEN seems a little bit hypocritical given the

situation … and so here comes the huffing & bluffing, cuz if you print MOAR! to

intervene, you make the problem worse! … and the “market” [cough, bullshit,

cough] just keeps on heading higher … where’s the top? … 140? … 150+??

… who knows, it’s up to Spicoli to create a depression and take U.S. rates lower,

thus saving Japan from monetary ruin … it’s all they got!

And for those newer readers who discover the website, and are wondering exactly

what the trading algorithm is predicated upon, that’s easy to answer … markets

move, up/down who cares, only that they “move” [a/k/a “VIX” or volatility] … when

they move they “correct”, and then resume the short term trend … and that’s what

the algorithm intends to capture … and when VIX gets too low, there is no

corrective activity, simply going from one end of a small range to the other [a/k/a

“The Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD], which kills a lot of accounts] … everybody

knows this as “chop”, and it can kill an account cuz it gets people to buy highs

and/or sell lows and then cover at a loss multiple times … it’s why you have to

pay attention to the 20 Day Range MA I print every Sunday on the bog update for

the week coming up … for more, read the manual!

Moving onto today’s “Slots-O-Rama” in the world’s largest casino, not much

going on besides USDJPY … even “Stock Bellies” are slow & lethargic, as the

BTFD’ers aren’t quite as sure about rising prices as before, so they aren’t nearly

as willing to chase & FOMO price up the ladder … USDJPY surprisingly weak as

price touched the 137 level [natch … thus clearing out the spec buy stops at 137]

before backing off 30 - 40 PIPS [so far] … this is a new 24 year high for the pair,

and it comes as 10 YR. Treasury rates are moving lower [after being slightly

higher] … comments by the usual Lounge Lizards, including those from the ECB

& BOE, as they continue to hawk for higher rates … well, that’s what they “say”

… let’s wait and see what they “do” … just a scant few days ago, it looked to me

like the cycle high might have been put in at the 136.70 level in USDJPY, as the

10 YR. hit 3.50% before aggressively backing off down to right above 3.0%

… since then, it’s been a straight climb up for rates, but nowhere near 3.5%, so

the weakness in USDJPY somewhat surprising … and it tells you a lot about how

the YEN market feels about the BOJ’s “bluff” of “not gonna ever back off YCC”

… wanna make a bet?

Right now, USDJPY has a 20 Day Range MA of approximately 157 PIPS … today’s

range = approximately 123 PIPS [so far], so we’re running short about 20%

unless things pick up dramatically in the New York afternoon … most of the

session the “Trading Ratio” [TR = approximately 7 - 8.5], which indicates a very

good to excellent scalping market, and at least so far, the bid/offer spread hasn’t

been blown out, but has remained right around 0.3 - 0.5 PIPS … one of the

“problems” we’ve been facing lately in FX, is the growing syndrome of “lightning,

speed of light … crickets” in terms of trading action … today that’s EXACTLY

been the scenario in USDJPY … looking at the range for over 7+ hours, and a

handful of M1’s make up the vast majority of the day’s action … that usually

means somebody puked and puked hard in size, and when it’s done, the market

goes right back to “chop” … in other words, we get “TIME” corrective activity in

the market, but we’re not getting the proper “PRICE” corrective activity, and

today we see that in spades!

USDJPY has just backed off about 65 PIPS from the high, and it’s pretty much all

due to the 10 YR. rate going lower, now down to around 3.1% … somebody tried

to muscle it higher still, in the face of the falling 10 YR. rate, but it never turned

around, and that buyer has appeared to puke … this is a “theme” I can see getting

played out repeatedly over the next months, up & until the inflation numbers come

out and then we’ll see … if inflation doesn’t back off and start coming in UNDER

consensus pretty “Hoover Dam” soon, USDJPY has got a lot farther to go on the

upside before SHTF and “Thelma & Louise” show up.

Multiple algorithm buy signals today in USDJPY … TURNKEY PAMM UP

SLIGHTLY … volumes will increase here shortly, after the 4th Holiday on Monday

… Q2 and month end flows are keeping me at lower volumes, simply cuz they are

unpredictable and sometimes nasty … they haven’t been so far, as things have

been relatively orderly, but the m1 spikes from Hell [we had one earlier today] can

come any second when quarterly & monthly flows are involved … for all of our

trades today, we had excellent pricing & latency, so good job Turnkey LP’s.

Onto tomorrow … outta here … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of

sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!!

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

GOLD ENTERS 4 LETTER WORD TERRITORY

 

“So I’ve noticed!”

Won’t rally, won’t break … and when you realize it’s mostly “scumbaggery”  

on the part of the ChiComs, who usually buy in Asia & Europe and then sell 

in New York, with the occasional reverse just to keep the illusion that this is a 

viable market, everything makes sense … still can’t get out of the range from 

2 Fridays ago … pathetic.

Eric Sprott, from Sprott Metals, nicknamed the gold market, the “Comex Con 

Game”, but it wasn’t the ChiComs he had in mind … it was the scumbag LP 

bullion dealers led by JPM & HSBC, who for years have been at the head of 

the pack manipulating metals markets on behalf of the FED & BIS … “well, 

there’s a new Sheriff in town”.

And that “Sheriff” is the ChiComs, who got more money to throw, throttle, 

and manipulate gold than combined retail & institutional specs times 10 

… and their goal is quite simple; accumulate physical gold without the price 

going up much … and of course, the lovable scumbag banks are only too 

willing to help the largest transfer of wealth the world has ever seen, for a 

few coins in their collective pockets.

Today sees nothing new under the sun so far … rally in Asia & Europe on 

“vapors”, cuz there is no volumes flowing through, or liquidity, and then gold 

“hits the wall” as the sun comes up in New York. So, we got a new  

“Con Game”, run by pajama traders in Bejing … “yes, mi amigos, this isn’t 

what I thought the 21rst century would turn into”.

Problem for us as traders, is that daily ranges are far below historical norms 

and averages … it makes little sense to buy new lows with a $5 or $6 range, 

cuz historically unless you’re gonna see a reversal, you can expect further lows 

at some point … not lately though, cuz all we see is “chop” … and from the 

perspective of the ChiComs, this is perfect cuz it gives the illusion of a  

“random walk” market and gives plausible deniability for the ChiComs in 

front of “do nothing” regulators whose only job is to watch midget porn all day 

on office computers … the bottom line is of course, biz as usual and they get 

their physical gold … gold, I might add, that goes into China and will never be 

seen again.

So, here we are yet again, and New York opens and proceeds to act like a 

bucket of left over shit … bid/offer all over the place, spreads widened for 

absolutely no reason, gaps in the M1’s from close to open of the next minute, 

which shows you just how bad conditions have gotten, and it’s another day of 

gold pretending to trade like it’s a viable market … it isn’t, and just like its 

sister silver, a shadow of its former self.

Cuz what’s happening, is that the ChiComs aren’t letting it go past certain 

points on the range, before trapping those the wrong way and swinging it 

viciously the other way … rinse, repeat, you get the idea … first they fuck one 

side, then they go after the other, and at some point they sit back and let it 

fluctuate some so that their actions don’t become predictable … meanwhile, 

anybody who has been around the gold market awhile, can’t justify trading it 

cuz it’s not really going anywhere, and the ranges are tiny compared to 

historical norms … in the last 6 tradings days, including today, where’s it gone 

and what’s it done besides screw people who’ve been involved in it? … and 

before that, I could raise the same question! “Hello silver market, here we 

come”!

Meanwhile, over in stocks land, stock indices are getting volatility sucked out 

of ‘em faster than money thrown down at a craps table in Las Vegas … and 

this will affect USDJPY flows, which will slow down “risk on / risk off” panics 

seen in December, and as a result slow down gold … as if it could be slowed 

down anymore than it is already. Bottom line is, highest probability is for 

nothing but a “chopfest” with the usual gaggle of bullshit bullion dealer 

“scumbaggery” making trading “Hoover Dam” near impossible. Why should 

today be any different? [Cuz it isn’t, same old shit, different day, thank you 

ChiComs for showing up.]

There really isn’t anything different from today, than what we’ve seen over 

and over again in gold … which is quite frankly, New York suppression of the 

gold price … as I said, it won’t rally, it won’t break … nobody trades it 

anymore, and nobody seems to care one way or the other about owning it, 

holding it, trading it, or even thinking about it … it just drifts … currently, 

we’re in a “drift up” phase, but then we’ll go back to “drift down”, and month 

after month price really doesn’t do a “Hoover Dam” thing. Gold right now, is 

at the same price it was in May 2018, end of April 2016, end of March 2014, 4th 

of July 2013, and finally mid-September 2010 … “anybody but me see a pattern 

here”? EXIT QUESTION: “How many metric tonnes of gold have the ChiComs 

accumulated in the last 8 ½ years, as price has virtually gone nowhere”?  

ANSWER: “12,000 TONNES” [Source: Bullionstar.com]. “Now, this is 

manipulation done right! … how do you accumulate this much gold and not 

have the price go up? … ask them, they know how to do it”!

Afternoon in New York, and this is familiar territory … gold doing nothing, 

going nowhere, the range since stocks opened a miserable $3 and change, and 

anybody who wants to call this a market needs their head examined … “there’s 

no “here” here, and everyday that goes by sees Comex volumes go lower … and 

why wouldn’t they”? People who used to trade gold, have left for greener 

pastures.

Well, I can’t take anymore of this … just miserable on all fronts … maybe 

tomorrow is better, we’ll see … can’t be any worse that’s for sure … I’ll trade 

it as soon as there’s something here to trade. I’m outta here … until tomorrow 

mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS OPEN AND

OPERATIONAL, AS WELL AS OUR C2 OPTIONS ADVISORY 

SERVICE.  DETAILS IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN 

RIGHT HAND COLUMN. START YOUR JOURNEY FROM 

WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

 

SUNDAY UPDATE: WILL MARKETS REACT?

 

“What the G20 is really all about!”

First some bookkeeping; directly below the gold charts correlated with the 

SP500; stock market volatility is going down, while gold remains dead. And if 

you look under the hood, you realize quickly the New York range for gold gets 

“skewed” by a few days where the range is above $11+ [which comes on news], 

all the while most days are between $4 - $6, making the range for what it is. As 

you can see, though, gold isn’t reacting with significance to anything. 

 

click to enlarge

 

click to enlarge

After dining on some fine steaks, Trump & Xi, along with the other G20 

fraudsters, have made nice and can pretend the world will now sing  

“Kum-ba-ya” and hold hands, all the while planning & scheming how to kill or 

incapacitate their enemies when they can find the right opportunity. And since 

the worst case scenario didn’t happen, most likely financial markets will 

respond positively to the “lovefest”. Over in oil, though, Putin says Russia will 

not cut production, and so that sector may cause some indigestion as we go 

through Monday. How will gold respond? … probably with a complete yawn, 

as the G20 confab isn’t nearly as important as the FED, and given the  

“good cop, bad cop” schtick put on the markets by Spicoli & his vice Chairman 

sidekick last week, what kind of language is the FED gonna use at its upcoming 

December meeting where a hike in rates is baked into the cake?

What it all means, IMHO, is more “chop” and directionless markets, 

dominated by bullion dealer “scumbaggery” until a more clear picture 

emerges, OR USDCNH starts to move in reaction to perceived FED changes. 

And while I don’t mind chop, I very much do mind shit low ball ranges, cuz it 

literally invites the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] into the market via dealer 

 “scumbaggery” … “do you need any better example of this than Friday? 

… count the trips to the lows, then the highs, back to new lows, then to the highs 

… rinse, repeat, having fun yet? … all inside a tight range that is going nowhere, 

with the obligatory spikes from hell cleaning out stops. And if you’re thinkin’ you 

can outsmart the dealers and try to play the small range FWD, in essence what 

you’re doing is risking dollars to make pennies … and eventually, all your gains 

go “buh bye” on the loser that keeps going … now, you got no chance to make 

anything back and you’re stuck in trading hell”.

As near as 2 years ago, my algorithm for trading gold under different market 

circumstances, had as its basic rule, don’t even think about trading gold in the 

morning if the range overnight is less than $5 … about 95% of the time, it 

would be $7 - $9 coming in, with $5 a rarity … and then proceed to put in a 

daily range of between $15 - $22+, almost every “Hoover Dam” day. Today? 

… please, I’ve just eaten. In fact, just to show how pathetic trading conditions 

have become, directly below a monthly chart of XAUUSD, with commentary 

… simply put, 2 of the last 3 months have seen monthly ranges as low as you’ll 

see in the last 13+ years. Something has got to give here … either it explodes 

one way or the other, or we go “death spiral” like silver … worth watching in 

the days & weeks ahead.

 

click to enlarge

What has me particularly worried about gold, is the fact that actual news 

events in the economic & political realm should be producing ranges in excess 

of $15 per day, but aren’t even coming close … why? … why are we stuck in 

trading shit day after day with almost no end? … sorry to say, I got theories, 

but no concrete answers. 

Bottom line, as I’ve hinted in previous blog posts, is that when gold goes 

“scumbaggery” from the dealers, you simply have to leave it the hell alone, or 

they’re gonna take your money … they find a way, either via spikes, mystery 

ticks, slippage on fills, something or all of the above. Let’s hope this week 

doesn’t see another low volume, zero liquidity nightmare.

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS OPEN AND

OPERATIONAL, AS WELL AS OUR C2 OPTIONS ADVISORY 

SERVICE.  DETAILS IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN 

RIGHT HAND COLUMN. START YOUR JOURNEY FROM 

WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!