UNDER THE HOOD OF USDJPY

 

“Trading USDJPY minute to minute!!”

Jobless claims? … “Thelma & Louise” over this? … welcome to the “hair trigger”

world of USDJPY, where any report, POL and/or Apparatchik utterance, can send

USDJPY skyrocketing or reeling … it’s the new “Widow Maker”!

And at the heart of this mess lies the US. STIRS market … if there ever was a

greater correlation between any 2 markets other than this, I don’t know of it

… every little squiggle in the U.S. 2 YR Note is noticed and acted upon in USDJPY

… in essence, you’re not really trading a currency you’re trading yield on fiat

toilet paper … and it reacts viciously & quickly far too often NOT to be considered

the prime mover of USDJPY … next week sees the June Reichstag meeting of the

Lounge Lizards for a June interest rate hike, and we also get CPI numbers … you

want “rock ‘n roll”? … tune in for that shitshow circus coming next week.

So here early, USDJPY range for the day while exceeding 100 PIPS, 40% of it

comes in less than 1 second … sell stops get flushed and filled at the bottom,

natch, and here comes the manipulative rally in price to keep the natural order

… natural order? … yea, banks win specs lose, the natural order, DUH! … as I

have said before, you need to sidestep any and all reports and/or speeches by

Apparatchiks at the FED, and not get caught in this bullshit … and today jobless

claims were plenty higher than consensus [unexpectedly of course], setting in

motion the nuclear detonation … what bullshit … welcome to the new

“Widow Maker”.

Into the afternoon in Biden’s Gulag [New York], and after the “Thelma & Louise”

on rates after jobless claims, they haven’t done Mr. Jack “Diddly” Squat … very

tiny movement … and after the first bounce in USDJPY, which you have to be

very careful about selling cuz of “V” bottoms like the other day’s double reversal,

there hasn’t been much to USDJPY in terms of a rally to sell … some algo sell

signals after about 10 - 15 PIP rallies, but that’s the extent of the anemic rally

attempts, all the while since 7 AM EST the HULL 204 has been pink [sell mode]

… quite frankly, that’s not good enough for me cuz I’m looking for slightly more

around the 20 PIP range … still have a hard time swallowing this bullshit over

jobless claims, but it is what it is … and once we reach the London Fix, it’s as if

somebody shuts the trading lights off … STIRS staying “sticky high”, more than

likely cuz for bond traders jobless claims isn’t the be all end all for direction some

today are thinking it is in FX … USDJPY has been stuck in this 138.75 - 140.25

range, up & down, for about 3 weeks now … until we get CPI numbers and the

Lounge Lizards interest rate decision next week, who changes this dynamic with

that uncertainty [unless, like the Dukes, they know something]? … looking at this

tiny movement down around 139, and unless somebody has the juice to get it

lower into sell stops, USDJPY is gonna find support here above 138.75.

Get below that and it’s a different ballgame, but after repeated attempts today

have been rebuffed, going into the Gulag’s afternoon trading with Europe closed

it’s gonna be a very hard case to make … and quite frankly, while I don’t want to

be long while the HULL204 is pink [it needs to be blue], until that support is broken

and tested, I’m not very excited about getting squeezed and being forced to buy

back shorts on a rebound … and here as i write, that’s exactly what’s happening

as USDJPY is now back above 139 [barely] … no trades in USDJPY for the PAMM

today, simply cuz we never got any decent rallies to sell after that first bounce, and

we find ourselves staring support on the daily chart right in the face … you

ALWAYS have to be cognizant of spikes from Hell in USDJPY, cuz the banks love

to create the havoc and then run stops … in other words, there are some areas on

the YEN chart where standing pat is the optimal choice, cuz neither buy nor sell

look good … guessing where this shit is going is beyond laughable, all that

matters is STIRS direction and order flow … and when STIRS aren’t correlating

with price very well, it’s ALL fading order flow.

Over at IQCENT, Bitcoin I’m leaving alone for the moment cuz of Binance &

Coinbase news flow, and the fact that ranges have been awful … “Stock Bellies”

are dead markets walking, and so I’m in USDJPY here as well for “The Syndicate”

… today no trades … onto tomorrow. 

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

JUST ANOTHER NFP IDIOCY DAY [WITH A TWIST]

 

“Woof! … I hate these days of lies & propaganda!!”

Time for the lies & propaganda to spill over into the financial realm … goodness

knows we’ve had our fill of both, from stonewalled train derailments, the usual

copious quantities of slush money to Ukraine, and the disgusting behavior of

government & the MSM in the J6 insurrection hoax … why should financial

trading be able to escape the carnage? … “how many more bartenders &

waitresses can Applebee’s & Chili’s hire?”

Quite frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised to wake up one day and see Kim Jong Un

as a political analyst on cable news … MSNBC or CNN, natch … why not, what

would be any different in tone to what’s seen now? … and when they break for

commercial, it’s a fundraising message from Zelensky demanding more American

money … what’s not to like?

Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … too bad nobody gives a shit about the

numbers, cuz what matters today is the existence of the banking sector,

especially smaller, regional banks, and the escapades of Silicon Valley Bank

[SVB] going down … what happens when treasury rates go north, but the bank

CD’s don’t pay shit? … well, you lose depositors, and that means share prices

go down cuz the bank can’t stay profitable … and what that means, is a FUBAR

mad scramble for short term treasury fiat cuz it pays more … even though said

fiat is really nothing but glorified toilet paper.

“Stock Bellies” got hit early, but have recovered on the usual government

shenanigans, no doubt the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] out in full force after

the mini meltdown after the NYSE open … but the real story today, though, is over

in FX, where the U.S. Dollar got mugged across the board “bigly & yuge”

… biggest moves since late last year.

These rumors of small bank failures started to make the rounds late Wednesday

& very early Thursday, and while ignored early, as time has gone on they’ve not

only become credible but real … SVB is gone … who’s next? … that’s uber bullish

for treasury paper, uber bearish for “Stock Bellies”, and uber uber bullish for FX

against the U.S. Dollar … crosses it depends … and out of the European open

today, even with NFP on the immediate horizon, things got interesting “el mucho

quicko!” … I got to my screens later than usual today, simply cuz I don’t step in

front of crap like NFP, or the pre positioning bullshit that accompanies it all too

often … even so, hours before NFP, ranges in anything / everything FX  blown to

shit, and it was due solely to this banking mini crisis in the U.S. … “Lounge

Lizards at the FED doing a wonderful job aren’t they?” … and up to the time of

NFP. all of FX roaring higher like they’re giving money away … the freight train

down the tracks showed no signs of weakness … then came release of the NFP

numbers … nobody cared … at first blush it seemed hotter than expected

consensus estimates … but treasuries started falling in yield and the race

higher was on again.

I stated yesterday I was looking to trade GBPCAD today, and if the trade logistics

there were somehow disappointing then GBPAUD … both of those pairs

skyrocketing … once NFP came and went, bid/offer spreads widened in both, to

well over 1 PIP … of course it’s bullshit, but the LP’s do this kind of shit all the

time cuz they can get away with it … whatever won’t get them indicted they’ll do!

… meanwhile, spreads in dollar pairs held steady and barely moved at all … time

for “Plan B” … and “Plan B” is gonna become “Plan A” as a result … cuz upon

analysis and further reflection of events, the difference in “Trading Ratios” [TR]

between GBPUSD [Cable], and the 2 Cable crosses, GBPCAD & GBPAUD is

roughly equal … and their 20 Day Range MA’s aren’t that far apart, with the

crosses only slightly higher … so where’s the big advantage of the cross versus

the dollar pair? … remember, crosses have 4 potential outcomes, dollar pairs only

2, so if you’re gonna trade the cross where’s the advantage? … and if they raise

the spread at the drop of a hat? … oh Hell no, I ain’t paying a higher spread for

roughly the same treatment … why should we pay 1 - 1.7 PIP spread versus

roughly 0.6 or 0.7 PIP spread? … at least double, maybe higher than that … and

so after NFP, I shifted my focus to GBPUSD, and I think I’ll stay here and trade

this versus trading any of the crosses.

Cable today having its best range since the beating it took on February 3

… “The Widow Maker” showing signs of a resurrection of sorts, and what I

wouldn’t give to have ranges like this every day going forward … but given the

current central bank manipulation theme & paradigm running FX since the

EURCHF debacle in January 2015, that more than likely ain’t gonna happen

… this isn’t normal trading … this is trading where there’s a systemic financial

problem in the U.S., namely failure of U.S. small banks … and that “bigly & yuge”

affects the flow of funds into U.S. Treasury fiat … and that domino affects FX of

which Cable is a big part … it would be nice if it was “normal” FX trading, but it

most definitely is not.

And what that means, is that you got to be really, really, ultra careful on days like

this, cuz you never know 1) what’s the next small bank reporting trouble, and

2) what’s government gonna do about it? … and that WILL change things in a

hurry, before you can find out WTF is going on … and it has the very real potential

to get ugly quick … up, down, or BOTH!, and not just in small bands of PIPS

… throw in the fact that it’s a Friday, and it makes it doubly worse cuz we got the

weekend where anything can happen …  Cable could look a whole lot different

come Sunday night, than it does on a New York afternoon on Friday … and that

fear will shape trading decisions, good or bad, up or down, as everybody in FX is

in the same boat … and the way things are looking here in the early afternoon,

“Stock Bellies” melting down again, treasuries going back to their low yields of

the day, and nobody has a clue what the FED is gonna do … forget NFP, that’s

just stupid econ shit made up by math whiz kids … what’s in focus is the health

of the small banks in the U.S., and that’s systemic and a Helluva lot more serious.

I only made one algorithm signal trade today in GBPUSD … PAMM UP

SLIGHTLY … sure, there were a ton of signals I could have taken today … I didn’t

cuz of the news flow, and the fact that the range was blown to shit before I ever

started trading … quite frankly, I’m not real keen on making trades after it’s

moved some 200 PIPS … seriously, where’s it going? … too often it corrects from

there, but if it does, where’s the buy fuel gonna come from after a major

explosion upward? … how easy is this to get your donkey in trouble? … take

away the news flow, and a lot of the signals I would have taken … we’ll know by

Monday whether or not this problem in the U.S. is isolated to some dumb ass

Kalifornia bank, or whether other banks are also threatened with loss of deposits

cuz of high treasury fiat rates, meaning whether it’s systemic or not … my guess

is it’s isolated, but who knows? … by Monday we’ll have a better idea.

And then we got the “Tale of Two Cities” … 1) Europe trading with part of the U.S.,

and then 2) the scumbag banks in New York after the London Fix and Europe

closes … night and day, and given what’s going on, it’s difficult to think of

higher “scumbaggery & fuckery”, than what’s gonna transpire after a huge range

morning once Europe closes … one look at today’s Cable chart and you’ll know

what I mean … JPM, Squid, and the rest of the cabal putting the screws to longs

with about 2 hours to the close.

The version 2.1 trading algorithm performing excellently across FX pairs today,

and I’ll have the manual ready this Sunday on the blog update … I’ll be hitting

Cable hard come Monday, and I’ll be at the trading helm from the European open

‘til I’m done … can’t hardly wait!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

THE WORLD IS IN BIG, BIG TROUBLE

“Coming? … No Skippy, it’s already here!”

The ruling elite “Emperors” have no clothes … ineptness has never been so well

defined and on parade as it is now … Italian elections have unnerved the E.U.,

and if FX is any indication, the trouble is just starting for the control freaks in

the E.U. & U.K. … this is gonna be fun to watch.

And what you’re seeing today, is the unraveling of years of FX “scumbaggery &

fuckery” by central bank manipulators, as the chickens come home to roost, and

they ain’t exactly friendly or in the mood to be nice … remember 8 weeks ago

when Cable was 20% higher? … things are so bad in Britain, King Chuck now

has to iron his own shoelaces! … I mean, what’s the world coming to? … next

thing you know, he’ll be cooking his own meals and shopping at Tesco with

clipped coupons out of the Daily Mail … even the weatherman is piling on, with

reports of a “cold snap” coming next week … meanwhile, POLS being POLS, and

having no clue whatsoever except to do more of what fails miserably each and

every time it’s trotted out, act like “Deer in headlights” … the “expert class”

exposed as “Courtesan Clowns”, which if truth be told, we all knew anyway

beforehand.

“Never let a crisis go to waste!” … and the scumbag banks certainly have picked

up on that mantra, as spreads in GBPUSD get blown out by 400%+ … and the

message to you should be clear … if you think you’re gonna scalp Cable for 5 - 7

PIPS at our expense, think again … go ahead, make our day!... and when they

start freezing to death in central Europe, the same kind of panic selling will hit

EURUSD … and the very real big problem for both the BOE and the ECB is

simply this … if they intervene and blow billions supporting failed fiat currencies

[their own], and it keeps going lower still, what next? … ditto with rate hikes

… “quick policymakers, call Maduro in Venezuela and get some advice on what

to do to add ZEROS to your currency!” 

Quite frankly, financial markets are in a first stage degree of shock … first the

BOJ intervention, now Cable craters to NEW ALL TIME LOWS VERSUS THE

DOLLAR, and EURUSD ain’t far behind with cold weather about to begin, and

they got no, as in ZERO, energy for their citizens … “Stock Bellies” precariously

close to getting further monkey hammered, and what’s the next shoe to drop?

… asking for a friend.

And as we get set for New York to come onto the scene in a few minutes, all

around it’s a very choppy bag of dog poo with spikes galore for the unwary

… I can’t imagine New York is gonna make it any better, but certainly can make

it far worse … fasten seatbelts.

Turning to today’s Keno board on the MT4, crude & Yen look and feel somewhat

dead … they aren’t of course, but the trade today is in Cable … here, we finally

got SOME KIND OF CAPITULATION IN GBPUSD … talk about panic selling &

liquidation at any price, you’d be hard pressed to see worse downside action in

any market than what we saw transpire today in Europe … simply wicked, as

liquidity dried up, spreads blew out, and conditions worsened to a point of

complete irrationality … haven’t seen this since BREXIT, and before that the

2008 financial crisis … “The Widow Maker” in fine form screwing traders left &

right, with help from scumbag LP banks … this is bat shit crazy [BSC]!

Quite frankly, with everything that’s going on, where does anybody go to get

their sanity back? … my first priority is to not get “whacked” … easier said than

done in multiple markets that have seen BSC up close and personal this year

… last week it was YEN intervention, and today Cable capitulation and trading

action that hasn’t been seen in a very, very long time … today’s Cable trade

simply wicked … Turnkey didn’t help of course, and their FX LP banks were

simply atrocious on fills … nothing new here, and probably not as bad as at

some other houses, but conditions are becoming a very big problem day-to-day.

I decided early on to move over to Cable today cuz it’s where the “action” was

concentrated most of the day … double reversal in crude oil today, and YEN was

simply slow moving … USDJPY looks & feels tired … dunno, but it just doesn’t

have any “oomph” in the trade … crude just looked sloppy the entire day, and so

far its 20 Day Range MA is about 25% lower than normal … what do you say to a

Cable market that goes down 500 PIPS, rallies 600 PIPS, then breaks 200 PIPS, all

before 1 PM EST in New York? … “I call it broken!” … most of the day Turnkey

had a decent spread, but after the London Fix, that blew out to 4+ PIPS, and it’s

still there … they absolutely will NOT let you short term trade this market without

paying the toll + horrendous slippage, so when conditions get like this, I got no

choice but to give them the middle finger and sit.

Multiple GBPUSD algorithm buy signals today … TURNKEY PAMM DOWN

SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 0.1% … given the terrible conditions, I consider this a

victory … add back slippage on fills, and I’m pretty sure we’d be up a few tenths

of a percent … but, it is what it is … I can’t control the behavior of thieves … I

see the trade, I see the entry and potential liquidation, and I hit the button when

I’m supposed to … sometimes that’s good enough, and sometimes it ain’t, and

when they come for you on liquidation with that red spike down, it’s ugly and

vicious and you know you’re gonna get screwed royally with a shit fill if you’re

one microsecond late.

Quite frankly, these last weeks I’ve been looking for some kind of capitulation in

FX … we haven’t seen it in EURUSD, but clearly it has been building towards that

event in USDJPY for some time, leading up to the BOJ intervention … now today,

given the Italian election upheaval, it’s Cable’s turn … it remains to be seen how

much is left to the downside given the scope of the decline already … granted,

Britain is a basket case on a par with any third world country run into the ground

by reckless spending, idiot POLS, and a clueless central bank … on the other

hand, they’ve weathered bigger disasters than what they face now, and the real

question is how much has already been discounted via price … I’ve said before,

it makes ZERO difference whether you want to trade from the long or short side,

simply cuz both sides face the exact same problems … therefore, there is no

advantage one way or the other … I would argue, though, that if anyone had a

time horizon of greater than a few years, Cable might just be a great buy & hold

for the long term, especially if one were in their 20’s or 30’s … and IMHO, down

here near par, it makes more sense to trade it from the long side than the short

side … just some thoughts.

Crude oil today not a very good trade at all … slow, clunky, not very much

“oomph” to price either up or down … a 3 steps forward, 2 back going up, and

then the reverse going down … I expect better trading conditions from crude

than this.

And yes, when it comes to FX, we’re in “The Twilight Zone” of price and VIX

action … it can literally go anywhere and do anything and there are no rules here

… the bid / offer price changes are so fast & vicious, you can easily buy 90’s and

then sell 60’s a few scant seconds later … thank you, come again! … I’m hoping

today is a “one off” in Cable, cuz quite frankly I expect USDJPY to disappoint for

a good long while, and until demand for crude builds back via China, crude may

be stuck right along with USDJPY chopping around and killing everybody that

touches it … reversals, double reversals, the usual bullshit banks and HFT’s

throw at us … and while I’m not disappointed in the algorithm, Cable’s reaction

to the Italian elections, or the trade itself, I’m extremely disappointed in the lack

of liquidity for a “supposed” major market … well, that’s a myth, I can tell you

that right now! … like I said, being down about 0.1% today is nothing … volume

was increased slightly today, and the PAMM yacht is out of the harbor and setting

sail … plenty of action to take into consideration going forward, but I’m hoping

the BSC conditions settle down some, especially going 500 down, 600 up, then

200 down … I don’t think the Cable market can handle that … essentially we have

4 markets I’ll trade … Cable, USDJPY, WTI Crude Oil, & lastly EURUSD if

everything else is stuck in mud … “Stock Bellies” look lost for the next 10 years,

so I’m not expecting good things in that market space for a good long time.

Onto tomorrow … OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of 

sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!!

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas