Time for the lies & propaganda to spill over into the financial realm … goodness
knows we’ve had our fill of both, from stonewalled train derailments, the usual
copious quantities of slush money to Ukraine, and the disgusting behavior of
government & the MSM in the J6 insurrection hoax … why should financial
trading be able to escape the carnage? … “how many more bartenders &
waitresses can Applebee’s & Chili’s hire?”
Quite frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised to wake up one day and see Kim Jong Un
as a political analyst on cable news … MSNBC or CNN, natch … why not, what
would be any different in tone to what’s seen now? … and when they break for
commercial, it’s a fundraising message from Zelensky demanding more American
money … what’s not to like?
Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … too bad nobody gives a shit about the
numbers, cuz what matters today is the existence of the banking sector,
especially smaller, regional banks, and the escapades of Silicon Valley Bank
[SVB] going down … what happens when treasury rates go north, but the bank
CD’s don’t pay shit? … well, you lose depositors, and that means share prices
go down cuz the bank can’t stay profitable … and what that means, is a FUBAR
mad scramble for short term treasury fiat cuz it pays more … even though said
fiat is really nothing but glorified toilet paper.
“Stock Bellies” got hit early, but have recovered on the usual government
shenanigans, no doubt the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] out in full force after
the mini meltdown after the NYSE open … but the real story today, though, is over
in FX, where the U.S. Dollar got mugged across the board “bigly & yuge”
… biggest moves since late last year.
These rumors of small bank failures started to make the rounds late Wednesday
& very early Thursday, and while ignored early, as time has gone on they’ve not
only become credible but real … SVB is gone … who’s next? … that’s uber bullish
for treasury paper, uber bearish for “Stock Bellies”, and uber uber bullish for FX
against the U.S. Dollar … crosses it depends … and out of the European open
today, even with NFP on the immediate horizon, things got interesting “el mucho
quicko!” … I got to my screens later than usual today, simply cuz I don’t step in
front of crap like NFP, or the pre positioning bullshit that accompanies it all too
often … even so, hours before NFP, ranges in anything / everything FX blown to
shit, and it was due solely to this banking mini crisis in the U.S. … “Lounge
Lizards at the FED doing a wonderful job aren’t they?” … and up to the time of
NFP. all of FX roaring higher like they’re giving money away … the freight train
down the tracks showed no signs of weakness … then came release of the NFP
numbers … nobody cared … at first blush it seemed hotter than expected
consensus estimates … but treasuries started falling in yield and the race
higher was on again.
I stated yesterday I was looking to trade GBPCAD today, and if the trade logistics
there were somehow disappointing then GBPAUD … both of those pairs
skyrocketing … once NFP came and went, bid/offer spreads widened in both, to
well over 1 PIP … of course it’s bullshit, but the LP’s do this kind of shit all the
time cuz they can get away with it … whatever won’t get them indicted they’ll do!
… meanwhile, spreads in dollar pairs held steady and barely moved at all … time
for “Plan B” … and “Plan B” is gonna become “Plan A” as a result … cuz upon
analysis and further reflection of events, the difference in “Trading Ratios” [TR]
between GBPUSD [Cable], and the 2 Cable crosses, GBPCAD & GBPAUD is
roughly equal … and their 20 Day Range MA’s aren’t that far apart, with the
crosses only slightly higher … so where’s the big advantage of the cross versus
the dollar pair? … remember, crosses have 4 potential outcomes, dollar pairs only
2, so if you’re gonna trade the cross where’s the advantage? … and if they raise
the spread at the drop of a hat? … oh Hell no, I ain’t paying a higher spread for
roughly the same treatment … why should we pay 1 - 1.7 PIP spread versus
roughly 0.6 or 0.7 PIP spread? … at least double, maybe higher than that … and
so after NFP, I shifted my focus to GBPUSD, and I think I’ll stay here and trade
this versus trading any of the crosses.
Cable today having its best range since the beating it took on February 3
… “The Widow Maker” showing signs of a resurrection of sorts, and what I
wouldn’t give to have ranges like this every day going forward … but given the
current central bank manipulation theme & paradigm running FX since the
EURCHF debacle in January 2015, that more than likely ain’t gonna happen
… this isn’t normal trading … this is trading where there’s a systemic financial
problem in the U.S., namely failure of U.S. small banks … and that “bigly & yuge”
affects the flow of funds into U.S. Treasury fiat … and that domino affects FX of
which Cable is a big part … it would be nice if it was “normal” FX trading, but it
most definitely is not.
And what that means, is that you got to be really, really, ultra careful on days like
this, cuz you never know 1) what’s the next small bank reporting trouble, and
2) what’s government gonna do about it? … and that WILL change things in a
hurry, before you can find out WTF is going on … and it has the very real potential
to get ugly quick … up, down, or BOTH!, and not just in small bands of PIPS
… throw in the fact that it’s a Friday, and it makes it doubly worse cuz we got the
weekend where anything can happen … Cable could look a whole lot different
come Sunday night, than it does on a New York afternoon on Friday … and that
fear will shape trading decisions, good or bad, up or down, as everybody in FX is
in the same boat … and the way things are looking here in the early afternoon,
“Stock Bellies” melting down again, treasuries going back to their low yields of
the day, and nobody has a clue what the FED is gonna do … forget NFP, that’s
just stupid econ shit made up by math whiz kids … what’s in focus is the health
of the small banks in the U.S., and that’s systemic and a Helluva lot more serious.
I only made one algorithm signal trade today in GBPUSD … PAMM UP
SLIGHTLY … sure, there were a ton of signals I could have taken today … I didn’t
cuz of the news flow, and the fact that the range was blown to shit before I ever
started trading … quite frankly, I’m not real keen on making trades after it’s
moved some 200 PIPS … seriously, where’s it going? … too often it corrects from
there, but if it does, where’s the buy fuel gonna come from after a major
explosion upward? … how easy is this to get your donkey in trouble? … take
away the news flow, and a lot of the signals I would have taken … we’ll know by
Monday whether or not this problem in the U.S. is isolated to some dumb ass
Kalifornia bank, or whether other banks are also threatened with loss of deposits
cuz of high treasury fiat rates, meaning whether it’s systemic or not … my guess
is it’s isolated, but who knows? … by Monday we’ll have a better idea.
And then we got the “Tale of Two Cities” … 1) Europe trading with part of the U.S.,
and then 2) the scumbag banks in New York after the London Fix and Europe
closes … night and day, and given what’s going on, it’s difficult to think of
higher “scumbaggery & fuckery”, than what’s gonna transpire after a huge range
morning once Europe closes … one look at today’s Cable chart and you’ll know
what I mean … JPM, Squid, and the rest of the cabal putting the screws to longs
with about 2 hours to the close.
The version 2.1 trading algorithm performing excellently across FX pairs today,
and I’ll have the manual ready this Sunday on the blog update … I’ll be hitting
Cable hard come Monday, and I’ll be at the trading helm from the European open
‘til I’m done … can’t hardly wait!
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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