Miss Gimpy is a “Newbie”, and despite her assertions to the contrary, will be for
some time to come … that is her biggest asset, and at the same time it has the
potential to be her biggest liability … how can one single thing be both the
biggest asset AND liability simultaneously? … welcome to the world of
“quantum mechanics trading”, where EVERYTHING is a probability wave function
of potential outcomes … infinite in scope … until one hits.
For those new to the blog, Miss Gimpy is my wife’s niece, who last Memorial Day
[2022] came down to the Caribbean with some college buds after finals, and while
here and screwing around the pool area, fell and broke her leg in multiple places
… well, that kind of ended this road trip, didn’t it? … to make a long story short,
the Mrs. and I decided to keep her here for her rehabilitation and physical therapy,
and after some lengthy discussions with me [much to her parents disapproval of
course], and some financial help to get her going, she decided she wanted to
become a “trader” … and so, she dropped out of worthless & useless university
indoctrination … “trading is a lifestyle and will ultimately fund your preferred
goals … that potential degree in Anthropology won’t even get you a minimum
wage job at WalMart!”
Like all Newbies, she soon discovered the inherent contradictions and enigmas
surrounding trading … the biggest contradiction being simple … “trading
attracts the brightest, smartest people in the world, who by their efforts have
succeeded in something to be able to fund their accounts … how come 90%+ of
them will fail and go broke?" … the biggest enigma IMHO, is the “perception”
trading is “easy” … after all, just go to YouTube and do a search on “make money
trading”, and within a fraction of a second you’ll be introduced to hundreds of
thousands of millionaires, billionaires, and soon to be trillionaires, where if you
just click the button and watch my short vid, I’ll show you how you can turn $10
into $37 Million within 2 days! … I mean, it’s sooooooooooo easy! … and here’s
where it gets “messy” if you have one brain cell working … if the big
contradiction is “true”, and we know it is from actual brokerage house data over
decades, how come EVERYBODY ON YOUTUBE [tens of thousands of ‘em!] is a
gazillionaire, waiting to line up and show you “the way”?
Well of course, you’ve already figured it out … it’s all bullshit and lies … it’s
“clickbait” for clicks and Google viewing revenue … or the vid is simply a
“honeypot” post to get you to go and sign up somewhere for something … “the
sizzle of this steak is strong!”
It came as a shock to Miss Gimpy to learn the first rule of “vegas trading” … “why
do banks allow you to open a trading account? … they view your money as their
money, you’re just holding it for a while until it can be returned to its “rightful”
owner … them! … it came as a bigger shock to discover bank / HFT “liquidity
providers” [LP’s} are thieving scum" … and they get away with stealing small
amounts of money from your account cuz they shove “skim” up to POLS, central
bank & other government Apparatchiks, regulators everywhere, and when
necessary exchange low life Honchos … the banks do this by creating offshore
IBC accounts in jurisdictions that have no rules and very strict privacy &
anonymity laws … and these “prop accounts” [as they are called] front run the
trading desks of the bank and orders about ready to be put into the market and
executed … and then the bank trading desk executes client/customer/Muppet
orders with the offshore prop account, which from a strict accounting of the
equation is simply a buy and a sell between 2 accounts with the bank as the
middleman … only problem is, IT AIN’T TRUE … now the prop account has the
profit, and it’s from here the “skim” is paid out … most likely crypto, but some
old timers [like Biden] would probably prefer Benji’s.
So there’s the “perception” … then there’s the reality … only in trading, having
the wrong perception can hurt you badly financially … to drive this point home
in the clearest way I know how, below are 2 vid clips … the first is from “Trading
Places”, the quintessential cult classic from the 1980’s, where Winthorp, having
been screwed over by “The Duke Brothers, Randolph & Mortimer”, has to pawn
his very expensive Swiss watch so he can eat … there’s the perception held by
Winthorp [played brilliantly by Dan Akroyd] that everybody knows the value of
this most exquisite timepiece, irrespective of time & place, and then there’s the
pawnshop dealer who brings the reality of Philly down on him … classic! … and
then the very ending when Winthorp asks “how much for the gun?” … just a
brilliant reaction from the pawnshop dealer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLo7tHDHgOc
The second is from Rodney Dangerfield’s iconic film “Back To School”, where he
“educates” the finance professor on how to build and run a company … now
more pertinent than ever in the U.S., where business conditions are 100X more
corrupt than when the movie was made in the 80’s, there is absolute truth in what
Mellon [Rodney’s character] is telling the prof … but the prof doesn’t want to hear
it, cuz it disrupts the narrative [perception] that companies who recruit grads
there want to be taught to “skulls full of mush” [as Rush Limbaugh used to say
on his radio show when he was alive … sadly, “El Rushbo” has passed on] … but
to Mellon, it’s very much a reality, and rightly so, and brilliantly reminds the prof
at the end of the clip when the prof asks the class “where to build”, Mellon tells
him “how ‘bout fantasyland!?” … classic, just a classic!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSLscJ2cY04
Think of these 2 short clips next time you tune into North Korean propaganda
financial network CNBC, or Bloomberg [a/k/a “Dumbberg”] … the perception of
the “agenda” becomes quite clear to anybody with a working brain … and that
agenda must be propagated at all times, for the good of the masses, for the good
of the country … you losing money cuz of these Dipshits? … well, that happens,
you know? … DUH!, market conditions, DUH! … your time would be better
served watching a Goebbels clip from the early 40’s … and all of this bleeds over
into trading … as I told Miss Gimpy, since there’s sooooooo many gazillionaires
over on YouTube, why not just shovel money to ‘em, sit back & relax, and then
pick up the money laying on the ground? … “No, trading IS NOT EASY … IT’S
SIMPLE, but it ain’t easy.
All of which brings me back to trading and the theoretical “perception” of the
v2.1 trading algorithm, and the reality of implementing it … the algorithm on its
face is almost perfect, almost “The Holy Grail” … what matters most is how the
information is realized and then processed by the trader and then acted on
… seconds matter, and if you fiddle fart around clicking the button, the LP’s are
gonna gut you like a fish caught for dinner! … and that’s just the entry, you got
liquidation to consider as well … where when it’s time to exit, it’s time to exit, and
it doesn’t matter what happens next … prepare for the next setup and execution
… nobody should care about price … if you’re LONG ONLY [which I recommend
for U.S. Stock Bellies cuz of the 88/6/6 paradigm in which they exist], it’s all about
“buying at 1 and selling at 2” … if you can do it once, you can do it a million
times! … 30 - 40 years ago, people would pay in excess of $500,000 for a
membership to stand on the trading floor and trade under conditions that are far
worse than today [meaning more expensive!], and now everything is free … it’s
now about execution, not the algorithm or model … and that means it matters
what you trade and where you trade it.
I had hoped to have the v2.1 algorithm finished today, but I’m doing a total rewrite
at the request of the Mrs. & Miss Gimpy, with a section more about the short side
of the algorithm, along with more pertinent examples … I’ll have it done by next
Sunday’s blog update … from there, I’ll tackle the options and how to use the
v2.1 algorithm to trade binary options … so, a busy few weeks dead ahead of me
… turning to Friday’s action, I’m not surprised in the mini melt up in “Stock
Bellies”, only that it happened on a Friday, which is rare these days … in any
event, nice to see ranges extended cuz they’ve been getting monkey hammered
lately … of the 3, the NDX100 holding up the best with the best “Trading Ratio”
[TR] over the course of the NYSE session.
Directly below, this week’s 20 Day Range MA’s for selected markets.
Notice the large drop in the “Stock Bellies”, along with gold and crude oil … and
in crude oil, even with a $4 range on Friday, the New York session drops below
$2 to $1.76 … WOW!, has this market died or what? … the NYSE session for the
“Spoos”, going from 60 to 50 … I don’t think I’ve seen a drop this hard for a long
time … in the final analysis, the most important indicator is the TR, cuz no matter
what the range is [daily or New York], if the TR is good to excellent, you got a
decent trading market … and on that score, the NDX100 at NOON on Friday had a
TR of approximately 8 … SP500 TR = ~ 2 … DOW30 TR = ~ 7 … after a Homer
Simpson weekend of “deep thoughts”, I’m gonna give the NDX100 its chance to
shine this week for the PAMM … if trading stinks, I’ll switch over to either USDJPY,
or GBPJPY … as I’ve said before, everything now comes with warts & blemishes,
and ranges have suffered in FX as well, so there isn’t any market that is avoiding
the VIX carnage … at least with the “Stock Bellies”, we got 0DTE options that are
keeping intra day VIX high, and that phenomena ain’t going away anytime soon
… onto the week!
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
No comments:
Post a Comment