Nobody sends you an email informing you of a change in “the rules” … it
happens silently, and if like the dinosaurs you don’t adapt, you’re gonna die
… over these last years since the EURCHF crisis in January 2015, which almost
brought down the entire FX market and would have impacted “Stock Bellies” in
a major way, “the rules” of trading have changed and changed mightily! … [“I
can’t seem to find that email from the FED informing me of this … I’m sure it
was just an oversight, if I was left off the list accidentally, right!?”]
I’m gonna cut right to the chase … for short term directional trend in any market,
there is NOTHING MORE POWERFUL than the “Heiken Ashi Smoothed” [HAS}
indicator … Blue color for UPTREND with positive slope, and Pink/Red color for
DOWNTREND with negative slope, using a 12 period parameter setting on the M1
… it models short term direction of price behavior better than anything I have ever
seen or developed … until it changes and goes the other direction.
For the longest time, I have maintained that when it comes to trading any of the
“Stock Bellies” markets, that any trader would be best served by maintaining
long positions only cuz of the “88/6/6” paradigm which they trade under
… however, some statistical research on my part shows this NOT TO BE TRUE
under certain circumstances! … and so, I have an algorithm paradigm change for
trading any of the “Stock Bellies” … I don’t do this lightly or on a whim, I do this
cuz the facts of trading shed light on the truth.
In any market, it should be obvious that for max results, you want to be ONLY
LONG when the HAS indicator is Blue, and SHORT ONLY when the HAS indicator
is pink/red … for markets like GBPJPY, that has always made sense, cuz over the
years since non dollar crosses have been traded [turn of the century with the rise
of electronic trading platforms], there is no permanent bias one direction or the
other … but for “Stock Bellies”, I have always maintained that’s not the case … if
you look at the totality of the years since the 1987 crash, the “88/6/6’ paradigm
numbers prove my point … but on closer examination it’s not the case … what’s
the “deal breaker”? … The FED interest rate policy … if the FED is in a steady or
easing cycle, the “88/6/6” paradigm works to perfection, and only on rare
occasions will being short yield profits … therefore, you want to be LONG only
during this cycle, and most importantly the HAS indicator will be in a blue state
most of the time … when the FED is in a tightening cycle [like we are in now and
have been since they started with their first rate hike in over a decade in February
2022], it’s a different story and being both long and/or short, DEPENDING ON
WHETHER THE HAS INDICATOR IS BLUE OR RED WILL DICTATE LONG OR
SHORT POSITIONS … … if a trader doesn’t want to be long or short in a
tightening cycle, just make sure your position is on the side of the HAS
indicator.
For FX, it’s basically the same thing, only here it’s all relative to what the FED is
doing versus other central banks interest rate policy, and especially for crosses,
between those 2 central banks … however, it’s mostly a function day-to-day of
what the HAS indicator is doing … Blue long, pink/red short … easy peezee!
What matters to a trader should only be 1) what’s the paradigm of the market I’m
trading, long or short only or a combination, 2) where’s the HAS indicator, blue or
pink/red that determines the direction of positions, and 3) is the “Trading Ratio”
[TR] good enough for me to trade it, assuming of course your total cost to trade is
in the top tier of brokerage houses offering the pair you want to trade … this is a
slight “paradigm shift” for the v2.1 trading algorithm, and all I would say to those
who don’t believe it, is to go back and look for yourself!
What you should notice when using the v2.1 algorithm, are 2 critical phenomena
… 1) trend changes in the HAS indicator very often bring rapid changes in price
that weren’t there before … meaning, when blue goes to pink/red, selling will very
quickly find its way into the market, and when pink/red goes blue, buying comes
fast and heavy lifting price … question is, will it last or stall, and the pdf manual
out this coming Sunday addresses that … and 2) if you get long when HAS is
pink/red, or get short when HAS is blue, you’re asking for major trouble … the
volume parameters of the algorithm, the TVI and MFI, may give a buy signal when
HAS is pink red, and price may rally some … but when the market turns back
towards its short term trend, which is down cuz the HAS is pink/red, it will do so
with a ferocity that sees all of the gains made over minutes, disappear in seconds!
… now what? … flip it around, and it’s the same on the upside only reversed
… you’re getting short based on volume parameters that show it’s going down,
and the HAS is blue … and in fact, it may show a small profit … but what happens
next comes deadly “el mucho quicko”, and that’s the green spike from Hell
straight up in seconds that takes away minutes of being lower, and the trend up
continues … we see this soooooooooooo often in the “Stock Bellies”, it’s
ridiculous, and with the same vigor it happens in FX when the HAS indicator
is blue.
You would be much better off, not only from a risk / reward perspective, but from
the perspective of “ease of the trade” to wait patiently and then go with the HAS
indicator trend as it approaches the HAS indicator [down to the blue when getting
long, and up to the pink/red when getting short], AND THEN WHEN THE VOLUME
PARAMETERS TELL YOU IT’S TIME TO MAKE THE TRADE! … made easier if the
candlestick patterns I talk about in the manual show up at the turn! … now, you
have another positive confirmation of the trade … and for options, especially
binary options, these turns have a greater than 90%+ probability of success
[profit] … [more on that in the upcoming binary options manual in a couple of
weeks.]
CUZ HERE’S THE DEAL! … it’s a B.I. Itch getting price to change the HAS
indicator color of trend … in other words, “it’s the SLOPE STUPID!”… the vast
majority of the time it takes multiple attempts at the “HAS Indicator ZONE” to
change colors for trend … these spell trade opportunities with small risk, and
ALWAYS has you trading with the predominant short term trend at the time
… and of course, we’re dealing with probabilities here, so the trend does change
… I cover this extensively in the v2.1 pdf manual … coming Sunday, so don’t
miss it!
Today is slow so far, as the world awaits Spicoli in front of the “buffoon
contingent” at the Clown College … tomorrow he speaks in front of the “retard
contingent” at the Clown College … when he opens his PIE HOLE for questions,
things will get interesting “el mucho quicko!” … he starts at 10 AM EST, so the
majority of the day lies ahead of his mouth … as for FX and Cable/Yen, you’re
splitting hairs if you’re gonna say it’s slightly more active today … FX, like
everything else, awaiting the manipulators musings … boy does this stuff need
a kick in the ass!
Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … thank you Spicoli … and GBPJPY got the
kick in the ass it needed to break the “ho hum” of nothingness it’s been in for 4
days in a row … good, now I can go and start trading it again … NDX100 getting
smacked around, but given the Lounge Lizard’s “higher for longer” mantra with
interest rates, unless the data starts coming in soft, tech stocks got nowhere to go
but down, and that’s likely to result in painful chop with occasional blow outs both
up and down that go nowhere … if Cable/Yen can maintain its 20 Day Range MA, or
anywhere close to it, it will offer better long and short position trades than
anything in “Stock Bellies” … TR for GBPJPY right around 3.5 - 4, and after he
started his Pie Hole going it went up to around 8 … here 3+ hours from the London
Fix, and the close of European trading, the TR is still a robust ~ 4 … with a bunch
of other things going on the rest of the week, it appears Cable/Yen has found its
trading legs again … “mortician, cancel that funeral!”
Things were not helped today with platform problems at Coinexx … right after
Spicoli started to speak [3 minutes to be exact], the vps platform went down
… 3 hours later, it’s fixed … see my shocked face … and yes, they really do think
we’re that stupid, to think it was a “glitch”! … looking back at the m1’s for
Cable/Yen, some short opportunities we missed cuz of it, but whaddaya gonna
do, sue ‘em? … nothing you can do but move onto tomorrow.
No trades for the PAMM today … not for lack of effort, but from lack of a
trading platform that was functional and working … by the time everything was
back up, Spicoli’s done his “blah blah, yada yada” routine, Europe has closed,
and from a trading perspective watching Cable/Yen, the day is over … the TR is
holding up, but the market isn’t really going anywhere or extending the range
… since he stopped and Europe closed, there isn’t much of anything going on in
GBPJPY, except plus/minus a few PIPS on either side of a median … onto
primarily trading GBPJPY cuz it broke out if its hibernation of the last week,
starting tomorrow … and if things slow down in the New York afternoon, I’ll track
the NDX100 if it’s doing anything … if not, I’ll leave it alone as well … “let’s just
hope Santa’s Elves over at Coinexx can keep the platform running by feeding the
gerbils on time so they don’t walk out on strike.”
We now have everything I need for trading … the market(s), and the finished
algorithm in v2.1 … onto the playing field … OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so
bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!!
… Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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