GOLD & SILVER TRAVEL TO WATERLOO

 

“Happens every time there’s a parabolic move UP … so sorry, you lose!!”

It’s not like this hasn’t always happened before, cuz it has … “FOMO & MOMO”

parabolic moves ALWAYS END UGLY! … gold, silver,, crypto, you name it … and

most often it comes out of a weekend where “all of a sudden”, having killed

shorts to no end and frustrating the shit out of those trying to sell the top, people

throw in the proverbial towel and then get long … “can’t beat ‘em, might as well

join ‘em” … then there’s the other side, the longs positioned and already picking

out the color of their new Porsche, and Bingo!, Bango!, Boom!, you’re selling

the ugly break … hello Kia! … so far it’s mild by comparison to other nose

dives, and maybe it recovers, maybe it gets beat silly like a drum at halftime of

the big game … we’ll see … meanwhile, ETH acting like a corn spread in

January … go figure.

Overnight about a $50 range … 6 hours of this bullshit and we’re looking at a NY

session range of about $20 from the extreme tips, but overall about $12 - $15

mostly traded, with “Nada, Zip, Zilch, & ZERO” FOR UP MOVES LIMITED TO

ABOUT $3 BEFORE IT GETS SHIT KICKED TO THE CURB AGAIN and heads

lower in a crawl … long, gone, so sorry you’re selling the break … have you

ever seen a market so completely devoid of buying interest, where 48 trading

hours ago, the entire world was crawling over each other to get long? … and

this action today, so far, tells me people are stuck long and can’t get out … that

doesn’t mean the great bull market is over, simply what I’ve been writing about

for over a week … namely, too many people are long …  …. shit goes up,

everybody and their pet rabbit gets long, and then shit goes down … elevator

up, and out the window to the ground floor when it goes down on that first

wave of “profit taking” [thank you Bob Pisani, CNBC perma-bull hack]

… I’m not surprised it’s going down, but am somewhat surprised it can’t even

muster a couple buck rally to scare shorts shitless … but hey, welcome to gold!

Meanwhile crypto is acting like it died over the weekend … “what do I say at the

funeral?” … and silver getting mauled worse than gold … call it whatever you

want, scalping and/or day trading, it’s a matter of semantics … but it allows one

to blow with the wind and not get stuck … I mean, it only took 45 years for gold

to do these last 2 months, to get the kind of runaway market we’ve seen … can

you wait that long? … there isn’t shit to do in this, but it’ll be interesting to see

how Asia reacts later during night time hours … was this simply a ChiCom trap

or is there more selling to come with some really good waterfalls shaking

people out? … we’re gonna find out … no trades today for obvious reasons

… onto tomorrow! 

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😍😍,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: CHAOS REDEFINED

 

“Precious metals and crypto!!”

Directly below, this week’s stat facts for our PAMM markets.

click on table to enlarge

VIX ebbs and flows like the ocean’s tides, but what disturbs me the most

heading into this week is that the percentage of trading action as defined by

the “New York session median / the daily range for the day”, has fallen below

50% for Ethereum [ETHUSD] and Bitcoin [BTCUSD] … and what that portends

for both, IMHO, are alternating trading days of pure shit with days of bat shit

crazy [BSC] action … one day a large blow out range and the next it acts like

it’s closed … this is the kind of bullshit that infects FX pairs, purposely designed

to screw specs by the central banks by creating conditions where VIX is highly

inconsistent … and that means banks win and specs lose.

On the other hand, both gold and silver are seeing increased VIX, where NY

headlines about 75% of the daily action in less than 8 hours … and while things

can change, they don’t appear imminent and I don’t foresee gold going

“sleepytime” with a significant drop in range … maybe some, but not enough

to make a difference. … the FED is close to puking gold shorts HARD, and with

solid foreign central bank demand for “bigly & yuge” size, I don’t know how

they see getting out of this FUBAR clusterfark without losing hundreds of

billions of dollars … and that most likely will see gold benefit along with silver.

I’ll move back over to ETH when it makes sense to do so, but 48% versus 75%

in gold is a wide differential and makes for better trade conditions … starting

the week, I’ll be back in gold … onto the week!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😍😍,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

BEWARE, THE “EXPERTS”ARE OUT WITH PREDICTIONS

“I’m a TRADER, I follow reality!!”

Surfing the internet this weekend, the locusts have returned! … not the kind that

come out of the ground every 17 years, the kind that show up after major price

moves in major markets and hawk predictions … go back 45 years to 1979, and

you’ll find the same broad “gold is going to $5,000 very soon” articles

everywhere, along with silver is the new gold … and “Stonks”? … well, it’ll be

another 3 years [1982[ before “Spoos” futures trading starts, but generally

speaking nobody but nobody cares about “Stonks” … EXIT QUESTION: “So,

who predicted this for the next 45 years? … try NOBODY!”

True trading follows reality, and the ability to shift gears constantly and

consistently when criteria changes … it takes the ability to realize you’re trading

numbers and nothing else, that repeat chart formations endlessly along with 

emotions over time … you aren’t trading a market per se, you’re judging human

behavior that endlessly repeats … over time, only the names change, cuz there’s

nothing new under the sun! 

That wasn’t much of an overnight session to say the least … one of the most

boring in recent memory … and of course, we’re all still here, with Iran and Israel

having their snowball fight while useless diplomats chew their fingernails … and

if both aren’t careful, they’ll both be put on “double secret probation” by Twits

who think they have any say in the matter.

First, playout war in the media letting the other side know in advance what you’re

doing … makes no sense if you goal is to win, but since when does any western

democratic power want to win anything? … the idiot criminal in the WH thinks

you lob snowballs, and whichever side lands more snowballs inside the others

space wins! … then declare “victory”! … XI & Putin must be laughing their

collective asses off at this … meanwhile rates on the 10 YR stay comfortably

above 4.6%, which makes me wonder just who is that fucking stupid to loan the

Banana Republic money at that rate, given inflation, taxes, and loss of

purchasing power?

Gold and silver “dead cat bouncing” today, the “Spoos” not liking higher rates

[finally] … crypto simply fucking around and awaiting the BTC halving tomorrow

or on the 17th … from the way the “Spoos” are acting, this is the second day in

a row of the back “6” of the paradigm … given we went up about 1,200 index

points on “Hopium” for lower rates, and they’re not coming anytime soon, WTF

is the index still doing up here in the clouds? … CTA positioning is heavy LONG,

so look out below cuz it may get nasty before it gets better … a couple of hours

to the close, and hanging in RM=4 territory on the m15 for over an hour for the

“Spoos” is not a positive development … you don’t normally get an hour to

buy the low!

We started the open off with a rally, which to be quite frank made no sense given

the move in rates higher off of the retail sales number … then Bingo!, Bango!,

Boom!, here comes the sellers … from there, it’s been non stop selling all day

long, and while me may or may not get a “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT} bogus

rally in the last half hour or so, this is the second day in a row in the back “6”

of the trading paradigm … onto tomorrow.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😍😍,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

 

GOLD $2400 … THE CHICOMS ARE CALLING THE FEDS BLUFF

 

“The ChiComs may be thugs and murderers, but they understand this!!”

Your move FED, as the ChiComs waste no time last night taking gold to $2400

per OZ. … “whatcha gonna do FED Lounge Lizards? … sell MOAR!? … and what

happens some day when the world finds out you ain’t got the 8,000 tonnes of

gold you say you got? … both the FED & Treasury won’t allow an audit, so

nobody knows for sure if it’s there or not … what if it ain’t? … why would

anybody refuse an audit if everything were legit? … SHORT ANSWER: “THEY

WOULDN’T!!” … no need to ever fight a physical war, simply suck them dry and

take all of the gold while leaving them with worthless fiat toilet paper backed by

NOTHING … TO THIS DAY, IT STILL AMAZES ME THAT PEOPLE LOAN THE U.S.

GOVERNMENT MONEY, and get interest BELOW the real inflation rate … what

kind of special Dope does that?

Decades upon decades, and many years being ignored, gold does in a couple of

months everything known to human psychology to literally destroy a market

… and now at last, central banks buying the top and sending price into “The

Twilight Zone”, where if you trade it you’re nuts … this isn’t a market any more,

it’s completely devoid of market qualities … Hell, even Bitcoin when it was

going from 3,000 in May 2020 up to 66,000 for its first major top, had corrective

activity and could be traded … not gold, currently on a bender like sailors on

shore leave at a bar … and you have to wonder, what happens when the FED

finally does fold their cards and stops shorting gold and gets out … hundreds

of BILLIONS in the hole, what idiotic horseshit do they throw at markets then?

Currently we’re at “End of the World” long positioning part II going into a

weekend where Iran versus Israel seems to be a not insignificant probability

… when we wake up Sunday night and we’re all still here, will anybody care?

… Nope, I don’t think so, so why not gap up to $2500 per OZ. in 2 minutes and

just get it the fuck over with for the day? … actually trade some? … no, that’s

what’s known as a “market”, and that doesn’t describe gold any longer.

Bank earnings suck, “Gee who knew?”, rates on the 10 YR. still at 4.5% or

thereabouts, and the “Spoos” seeing extreme long positioning itself since

November lows some 1,200 index points lower, and you wonder when this

market cracks and goes “Thelma & Louise”? … and suddenly, while everybody

and their pet rabbit is picking out their new shiny red Porsche, along comes a

gut wrenching $50 drop in gold just to remind folks shit goes down as well as

up … some crazy ass bid/offers along the way, and I’m sure if you had a sell stop

in there you got treated fairly, right? Bwahahaha! … from a trading perspective, I

don’t care where anything is at in any market … it’s just numbers on a screen and

doesn’t reflect reality anyway … you ain’t trading what you think you are trading,

you’re trading human psychology, and it makes no difference if its “widgets”,

gold, or “Spoos” … they ALL act the same at different times and put in the same

formations on a chart, and by and large get traders to do the exact same things

they would do no matter what they trade … every market has its day in the sun,

and every market goes bat shit crazy [BSC] and gets crushed like all the others

… ain’t nothin’ special here in this arena, other than the “Stock Bellies” operate

in an “88/6/6” paradigm whether you like it or not, and all other markets don’t

… gold for its part, just had a senior moment, and let’s hope it leads to trading

instead of simply one way action before it dies until next time.

“Spoos” proving today, that no matter what the news is [and it was bad], there’s

ALWAYS tradeable rallies anybody can scalp using the algorithm … at least so

far into NOON EST, RM levels on both the m15 [RM=3] & m1 [RM=1, along with

the MACD histogram (8 period fast, 15 period slow)] doing exceptionally well in

modeling price behavior going forward a few minutes for scalps … if it wasn’t

for gold breaking like it has, I’d be paying more attention to the “Spoos”.

There come days in trading, not very often to be sure, where everything is NUTZ

and falling like “Thelma & Louise” headed to the bottom of the quarry … only

thing is, we can’t see where the bottom is … bottom coming in 3 … 2 … 1? …,

or the abyss from “300” that has no bottom … throw in overextended markets

that haven’t seen this level of long hubris, and it’s quite the setup for a Friday

where the world might end this weekend … [again!] … with people trapped,

countdown to the close has the potential to be a real disaster … maybe, maybe

not, but I don’t wanna find out … gold, silver, “Spoos” particularly vulnerable,

especially when those trapped convince themselves it can’t get any worse

… trust me, IT CAN GET WORSE!

Of the 3 markets, “Spoos” about the only one that can be counted on to see

some kind of scalpable rallies, simply cuz of  the “88/6/6” paradigm the rest don’t

have … gold the worst, gapping all over the place … Still, one decent scalp trade

for the PAMM and WE’RE UP SLIGHTLY … QUITE FRANKLY, “Spoos” are more

overextnded than gold to the upside, having put in about 1200 index points in 23

weeks with only 4 “Friday to Friday” weekly closes lower, and those not by much

… UP 30% on what exactly? … oh that’s right, all of those rate cut fairy tale

hopes and dreams that were gonna see 200+ bps of cuts in 2024 … now down

to 38 basis points and still going lower thanks to inflation figures that are vastly

underreported … how about a rate hike? … anybody got that calculus for the

“Spoos” or gold at these levels?

Won’t next week be interesting given what we’ve seen today? … blog update on

Sunday! … CYA then!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😍😍,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas