SUNDAY UPDATE: THE EXISTENTIALISM OF TRADING

 

“Is this even legal!!?”

Miss Gimpy is a “Newbie”, and despite her assertions to the contrary, will be for

some time to come … that is her biggest asset, and at the same time it has the

potential to be her biggest liability … how can one single thing be both the

biggest asset AND liability simultaneously? … welcome to the world of

“quantum mechanics trading”, where EVERYTHING is a probability wave function

of potential outcomes … infinite in scope … until one hits.

For those new to the blog, Miss Gimpy is my wife’s niece, who last Memorial Day

[2022] came down to the Caribbean with some college buds after finals, and while

here and screwing around the pool area, fell and broke her leg in multiple places

… well, that kind of ended this road trip, didn’t it? … to make a long story short,

the Mrs. and I decided to keep her here for her rehabilitation and physical therapy,

and after some lengthy discussions with me [much to her parents disapproval of

course], and some financial help to get her going, she decided she wanted to

become a “trader” … and so, she dropped out of worthless & useless university

indoctrination … “trading is a lifestyle and will ultimately fund your preferred

goals … that potential degree in Anthropology won’t even get you a minimum

wage job at WalMart!”

Like all Newbies, she soon discovered the inherent contradictions and enigmas

surrounding trading … the biggest contradiction being simple … “trading

attracts the brightest, smartest people in the world, who by their efforts have

succeeded in something to be able to fund their accounts … how come 90%+ of

them will fail and go broke?" … the biggest enigma IMHO, is the “perception”

trading is “easy” … after all, just go to YouTube and do a search on “make money

trading”, and within a fraction of a second you’ll be introduced to hundreds of

thousands of millionaires, billionaires, and soon to be trillionaires, where if you

just click the button and watch my short vid, I’ll show you how you can turn $10

into $37 Million within 2 days! … I mean, it’s sooooooooooo easy! … and here’s

where it gets “messy” if you have one brain cell working … if the big

contradiction is “true”, and we know it is from actual brokerage house data over

decades, how come EVERYBODY ON YOUTUBE [tens of thousands of ‘em!] is a

gazillionaire, waiting to line up and show you “the way”?

Well of course, you’ve already figured it out … it’s all bullshit and lies … it’s

“clickbait” for clicks and Google viewing revenue … or the vid is simply a

“honeypot” post to get you to go and sign up somewhere for something … “the

sizzle of this steak is strong!”

It came as a shock to Miss Gimpy to learn the first rule of “vegas trading” … “why

do banks allow you to open a trading account? … they view your money as their

money, you’re just holding it for a while until it can be returned to its “rightful”

owner … them! … it came as a bigger shock to discover bank / HFT “liquidity

providers” [LP’s} are thieving scum" … and they get away with stealing small

amounts of money from your account cuz they shove “skim” up to POLS, central

bank & other government Apparatchiks, regulators everywhere, and when

necessary exchange low life Honchos … the banks do this by creating offshore

IBC accounts in jurisdictions that have no rules and very strict privacy &

anonymity laws … and these “prop accounts” [as they are called] front run the

trading desks of the bank and orders about ready to be put into the market and

executed … and then the bank trading desk executes client/customer/Muppet

orders with the offshore prop account, which from a strict accounting of the

equation is simply a buy and a sell between 2 accounts with the bank as the

middleman … only problem is, IT AIN’T TRUE … now the prop account has the

profit, and it’s from here the “skim” is paid out … most likely crypto, but some

old timers [like Biden] would probably prefer Benji’s.

So there’s the “perception” … then there’s the reality … only in trading, having

the wrong perception can hurt you badly financially … to drive this point home

in the clearest way I know how, below are 2 vid clips … the first is from “Trading

Places”, the quintessential cult classic from the 1980’s, where Winthorp, having

been screwed over by “The Duke Brothers, Randolph & Mortimer”, has to pawn

his very expensive Swiss watch so he can eat … there’s the perception held by

Winthorp [played brilliantly by Dan Akroyd] that everybody knows the value of

this most exquisite timepiece, irrespective of time & place, and then there’s the

pawnshop dealer who brings the reality of Philly down on him … classic! … and

then the very ending when Winthorp asks “how much for the gun?” … just a

brilliant reaction from the pawnshop dealer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLo7tHDHgOc

The second is from Rodney Dangerfield’s iconic film “Back To School”, where he

“educates” the finance professor on how to build and run a company … now

more pertinent than ever in the U.S., where business conditions are 100X more

corrupt than when the movie was made in the 80’s, there is absolute truth in what

Mellon [Rodney’s character] is telling the prof … but the prof doesn’t want to hear

it, cuz it disrupts the narrative [perception] that companies who recruit grads

there want to be taught to “skulls full of mush” [as Rush Limbaugh used to say

on his radio show when he was alive … sadly, “El Rushbo” has passed on] … but

to Mellon, it’s very much a reality, and rightly so, and brilliantly reminds the prof

at the end of the clip when the prof asks the class “where to build”, Mellon tells

him “how ‘bout fantasyland!?” … classic, just a classic!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSLscJ2cY04

Think of these 2 short clips next time you tune into North Korean propaganda

financial network CNBC, or Bloomberg [a/k/a “Dumbberg”] … the perception of

the “agenda” becomes quite clear to anybody with a working brain … and that

agenda must be propagated at all times, for the good of the masses, for the good

of the country … you losing money cuz of these Dipshits? … well, that happens,

you know? … DUH!, market conditions, DUH! … your time would be better

served watching a Goebbels clip from the early 40’s … and all of this bleeds over

into trading … as I told Miss Gimpy, since there’s sooooooo many gazillionaires

over on YouTube, why not just shovel money to ‘em, sit back & relax, and then

pick up the money laying on the ground? … “No, trading IS NOT EASY … IT’S

SIMPLE, but it ain’t easy.

All of which brings me back to trading and the theoretical “perception” of the

v2.1 trading algorithm, and the reality of implementing it … the algorithm on its

face is almost perfect, almost “The Holy Grail” … what matters most is how the

information is realized and then processed by the trader and then acted on

… seconds matter, and if you fiddle fart around clicking the button, the LP’s are

gonna gut you like a fish caught for dinner! … and that’s just the entry, you got

liquidation to consider as well … where when it’s time to exit, it’s time to exit, and

it doesn’t matter what happens next … prepare for the next setup and execution

… nobody should care about price … if you’re LONG ONLY [which I recommend

for U.S. Stock Bellies cuz of the 88/6/6 paradigm in which they exist], it’s all about

“buying at 1 and selling at 2” … if you can do it once, you can do it a million

times! … 30 - 40 years ago, people would pay in excess of $500,000 for a

membership to stand on the trading floor and trade under conditions that are far

worse than today [meaning more expensive!], and now everything is free … it’s

now about execution, not the algorithm or model … and that means it matters

what you trade and where you trade it.

I had hoped to have the v2.1 algorithm finished today, but I’m doing a total rewrite

at the request of the Mrs. & Miss Gimpy, with a section more about the short side

of the algorithm, along with more pertinent examples … I’ll have it done by next

Sunday’s blog update … from there, I’ll tackle the options and how to use the

v2.1 algorithm to trade binary options … so, a busy few weeks dead ahead of me

… turning to Friday’s action, I’m not surprised in the mini melt up in “Stock

Bellies”, only that it happened on a Friday, which is rare these days … in any

event, nice to see ranges extended cuz they’ve been getting monkey hammered

lately … of the 3, the NDX100 holding up the best with the best “Trading Ratio”

[TR] over the course of the NYSE session.

Directly below, this week’s 20 Day Range MA’s for selected markets.

click on table to enlarge

Notice the large drop in the “Stock Bellies”, along with gold and crude oil … and

in crude oil, even with a $4 range on Friday, the New York session drops below

$2 to $1.76 … WOW!, has this market died or what? … the NYSE session for the

“Spoos”, going from 60 to 50 … I don’t think I’ve seen a drop this hard for a long

time … in the final analysis, the most important indicator is the TR, cuz no matter

what the range is [daily or New York], if the TR is good to excellent, you got a

decent trading market … and on that score, the NDX100 at NOON on Friday had a

TR of approximately 8 … SP500 TR = ~ 2 … DOW30 TR = ~ 7 … after a Homer

Simpson weekend of “deep thoughts”, I’m gonna give the NDX100 its chance to

shine this week for the PAMM … if trading stinks, I’ll switch over to either USDJPY,

or GBPJPY … as I’ve said before, everything now comes with warts & blemishes,

and ranges have suffered in FX as well, so there isn’t any market that is avoiding

the VIX carnage … at least with the “Stock Bellies”, we got 0DTE options that are

keeping intra day VIX high, and that phenomena ain’t going away anytime soon

… onto the week!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

WAITING FOR THE LIES THAT ARE SURE TO COME

 

“The front gate entrance to FED HQ! … seems legit!”

Destroying America from within, every year since its inception in 1913 … why

should this year be any different? … the only thing Spicoli and his predecessors

are really good at is destroying the purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar, and

enslaving the entire country in debt that can NEVER BE REPAID … the only

solution is hyperinflation, which the U.S. is well on its way to Venezuela status

… the fact that they are entirely willing to destroy your wealth, savings, and

prosperity for their true masters, tells you everything you need to know about

the “Deep State” … and you don’t get much deeper than the Federal Reserve

… there will be no truth told today at J-Hole, ONLY LIES … how do we end up

with so many corrupt, inept, and genuinely EVIL people running government

at every level?

ATTENTION TRADERS!: “Effective at 10 AM EST, GBPUSD will assume

“Widow Maker” status … quite frankly, as I told readers yesterday, the

“scumbaggery & fuckery” leading up to his speech was likely to see movement

in Cable price … there are no rules in FX … there is no insider trading rule

… there’s NADA! … and hey, leakers got mistresses as well, and do you realize

how expensive it is to stay in J-Hole? … what surprises me to some extent, is all

week long, including earlier today, ALL OF THE FED PIE HOLES are “blah blah,

yada yada” higher rates for longer … yet, markets ignore it and think anything

Spicoli says will be interpreted “dovish” and therefore bullish … and oh how

they [scumbag LP banks] did want those buy stops above 1.18770 in Cable

didn’t they? … well, they got ‘em!

And from the moment Spicoli opened his mouth, Turnkey blew the spread out in

Cable, bid/offer quotes went bat shit crazy [BSC], sometimes seeing 5 - 10 PIP

changes in milliseconds, right along with subsequent slippage I’m sure, and it

becomes untradeable by any reasonable standard … and so here comes the

gigantic yo-yo in price “The Widow Maker” was infamous for back in pit trading

days … straight down, turn on a dime, straight up and take out buy stops … rest

for 60 seconds, and then go straight down faster than “Thelma & Louise” looking

for a quarry bottom … it only hurts when you get the fill! … and all the “Muppets”

that bought Cable cuz “the Dukes know something” before he started speaking,

found out the hard way the “Dukes don’t know shit!” … “Mortimer, we’re gonna

have to have a talk with Mr. Beeks!”

Good grief, what a scam! … over in EURUSD, some ECB Apparatchiks decided

today would be a good day to let loose some 75 bps hike rumors as well for the

September meeting … why not? … why should Cable have all the BSC fun

today? … bottom line is simple … in about an hour and a half, mistress funds

got replenished for August, and so it’s on to the Swiss lake with some extra

needed cash while the world watches Labor Day in the U.S., and Europe takes

a 4 or 5 day mini Holiday … “Ah yes, it’s good to be a part of the Nomenklatura,

the perks of privilege better than any job the Hoi Pollio could possibly imagine!”

And that brings us to the London Fix [yup, somebody is getting “fixed” alright],

where Cable ends up on its ass, with 45 minutes of straight selling off the high

right up around 1.19000 … now sitting OVER 100+ PIPS lower, and a great deal

of traders wondering WTF they got sucked into this shit like they did … go ask

the Dukes!

From the high, to a new low, A NICE FAT DOUBLE REVERSAL … I’ve been saying

for a while, THERE ARE NO RULES ANYMORE … it wouldn’t shock me if it turned

around and made a new high … nothing to see here Sheeple, move along, except

to note that before central bank manipulation via their BFF scumbag LP bank

buds and/or their favorite HFT’s, double and/or triple reversals were quite rare,

happening only about once or twice every 4 or 5 years! … now, it’s like once or

twice every 10 - 20 days!

“Gosh, what happened to all of this JPM & Vampire Squid bullishness pre

Spicoli? … EASY PEEZEE ANSWER: THAT WAS FOR “MUPPETS” TO CHEW

ON!” … but I will remind readers that historically, Double Reversals [unless they

go triple and go the other way again on their merry way] rarely have legs to

extend the day’s range in the double reversal direction … usually it’s just a stop

hunt, killing those again who refuse to believe, getting them to buy/sell the

top/bottom before moving back to the middle for yet more pain … now just

passing NOON EST, with Europe closed, who wants a piece of this hot,

steaming clusterfark of an FX mess in Cable? … ATTENTION TRADERS!:

“The Widow Maker” status has officially expired in GBPUSD … all of the

scumbag LP banks and/or HFT’s that took your money want to thank you for

your participation! … now, Cable back to some semblance of “normal”

whatever the Hell that means anymore, conditions much calmer now that

Europe is closed.

For the vast majority of my readers, the trading algorithm version 3 can’t be

utilized properly cuz LP’s simply won’t allow traders to scalp without taking

countervailing measures, like blown out spreads AND increased slippage

… maybe you have a house that is different, but I haven’t found one yet … most

are like Turnkey, and believe me, Turnkey is by no means the worst of the lot

… they just happen to be “typical”.

Having said this, I think the vast majority of readers / traders will find the

“day trading” algorithm [which I will release this Sunday in the blog update] to

be “right up their alley” … very simple in construct, very simple to follow the

rules, AND IT IS EXCEPTIONALLY DEADLY in modeling the turns, BOTH BULL

AND BEAR … this is the algorithm I designed and created specifically for the

Mrs. & “Miss Gimpy”, who having experienced scalping clusterfarks not of their

liking in EURUSD & DOW30, wanted something that got just a little away from

scalping and more towards “day trading” and riding a short term move, all the

while having the option to scalp if they deem it necessary, and be able to do it

in multiple markets where it works equally well [“oh, is that all? … anything else

you’d like while I’m at it ladies?”] … and from watching it closely in multiple

markets this week while Cable diddle farted around, IMHO it works equally well

in ALL OF FX, ALL “STOCK BELLIES” CFD’S, AND CRUDE OIL … it’s “day

trading”, but could be “scalping” if a trader oriented himself/herself that way

… can be equally used both long & short … you can use the Netdania 30s

charts if desired, but you don’t need to, as the M1 candlestick is enough … has

a very good reward / risk profile, and there’s no mystery to where your mental

stop should be if a “false positive” trade shows up … on the other hand,

depending on your risk profile, the algorithm will allow you to “let the pony run”

for bigger profits as well.

I’m gonna say it right now, and it’ll be repeated in the algo manual … CHANGE

NOTHING … don’t add indicators and don’t subtract indicators … FOLLOW THE

“HOOVER DAM” RULES! … do not allow yourself the luxury of “making shit up

as you go along, and “this time” it’s OK to double, triple, or quadruple up losers!”

… in other words, don’t do “Stupid Shit!” … it’ll be up and posted sometime on

Sunday … enjoy!

Post Spicoli, which forget about the PCE horseshit released at 8:30 AM EST, only

one algorithm BUY SIGNAL trade in GBPUSD … TURNKEY PAMM UP SLIGHTLY

… fact is/was, trading conditions were so horrible after the Head Lounge Lizard

started speaking, I had to pass on frequent signals for quite a while … the

bid / offer spread in Cable at Turnkey got so bad, at one point it was just below

5 PIPS … bid / offer quote changes coming anywhere from 3 - 10 PIPS in

milliseconds, meaning slippage was “out of control” … and in this kind of

environment, you simply gotta walk away or you’re throwing money away.

I’m using in Cable, the same trading algo I’ll be releasing Sunday … I kept

volumes low today cuz of the BSC conditions, but next week they will go up as

we return to normal … for this particular trade, I was in “scalp” mode cuz the

algorithm was under a very specific trading circumstance … knowing how Cable

was trading today, and that it was dancing around the edges of being “The Widow

Maker”, I knew that when price rallied, when it stalled going up, I had about less

than 10 seconds to hit “liquidate” or I’d be seeing slippage on a red spike lower

… and after a few seconds of not doing Mr. Jack Squat, I didn’t hesitate in GTFO,

and got filled less than 1 PIP off the high of the M1 … 15 seconds later it was 10+

PIPS lower and running down … I’m a little bummed we had to wait so long for

decent conditions, as it kinda caught me by surprise we’d see this level of VIX

for as long as we did … but never underestimate central bankers for fucking up

and saying one thing one second, and then contradicting themselves 15

seconds later [yes, like Biden!] and sending markets on a yo-yo roller coaster

ride from Hell … and lo & behold, that’s what we got. 

Blog update on Sunday … OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs

of  sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!!

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas