SUNDAY UPDATE: CHAOS REDEFINED

 

“Precious metals and crypto!!”

Directly below, this week’s stat facts for our PAMM markets.

click on table to enlarge

VIX ebbs and flows like the ocean’s tides, but what disturbs me the most

heading into this week is that the percentage of trading action as defined by

the “New York session median / the daily range for the day”, has fallen below

50% for Ethereum [ETHUSD] and Bitcoin [BTCUSD] … and what that portends

for both, IMHO, are alternating trading days of pure shit with days of bat shit

crazy [BSC] action … one day a large blow out range and the next it acts like

it’s closed … this is the kind of bullshit that infects FX pairs, purposely designed

to screw specs by the central banks by creating conditions where VIX is highly

inconsistent … and that means banks win and specs lose.

On the other hand, both gold and silver are seeing increased VIX, where NY

headlines about 75% of the daily action in less than 8 hours … and while things

can change, they don’t appear imminent and I don’t foresee gold going

“sleepytime” with a significant drop in range … maybe some, but not enough

to make a difference. … the FED is close to puking gold shorts HARD, and with

solid foreign central bank demand for “bigly & yuge” size, I don’t know how

they see getting out of this FUBAR clusterfark without losing hundreds of

billions of dollars … and that most likely will see gold benefit along with silver.

I’ll move back over to ETH when it makes sense to do so, but 48% versus 75%

in gold is a wide differential and makes for better trade conditions … starting

the week, I’ll be back in gold … onto the week!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😍😍,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: LOOKS CAN BE DECEIVING

 

“Seems legit to me!!”

Let’s start today off with the weekly 20 Day ranges & Medians for our 4

markets … BTCUSD, ETHUSD, SPOT GOLD [XAUUSD], & THE SP500

[“SPOOS”].

click on table to enlarge

While crypto slows down some, which is to be expected, gold has broken above

the $30 mark for daily average, where we’ll see if that holds or is extended further

… and as good as that sounds for gold, there are some “bigly & yuge” problems

with trading it … the spread could and should be better, and slippage on fills is

ALWAYS a problem with the asshole HFT LP’s … and what that means in practical

terms is that your risk on any trade ain’t what you think it is … quite frankly it’s

open ended in the worst case to $10 - $15 per OZ, and most likely to the $5 level

on other occasions.

On the other hand, consider the “Spoos” … NYSE median consistently above 30

index points, and while the micro futures usually trade close to or over 1 million

contracts a day [1 lot = 5* index], the interesting item to note is that volume is

almost always about 5X LARGER THAN OPEN INTEREST [OI] … As an aside, it’s

a couple of notches lower in gold … and that means it’s a day trade / scalp

market by the masses in  the U.S. … the rest of the world hardly trades futures,

instead trading CFDs cuz futures are taxed and CFDs are legally considered

gambling bets and NOT subject to tax.

The problem with the “Spoos” CFDs are the brokerage houses that offer them

and the scumbag banks or HFTs [most likely] that make a market in them … and

what you’ll find is that the houses that offer great conditions frown on scalping or

outright ban it … Coinexx is “middle of the road” when it comes to ranking, and

doesn’t mind scalping, but what happens if your trades are too fast, is that the

LP you opened the trade with gets really pissed if you consistently “pick them

off”, and in order to prevent this they’ll fill your liquidation price way off the

market … you may think you should be up ½ an index point, but your fill says

your down ½ an index point, as they fill you a full index point under the current

bid on your screen … scream at ‘em all you want, they don’t care.

But overall, outside of the occasional straight up / down all day long, which

infects ALL MARKETS to some degree or another, you can make a case that the

“Spoos” are actually a better trading market than gold or crypto … two reasons

… 1) better risk profile, and 2) somewhat better up/down moves during the NYSE

day … not every day to be sure, but most days … it all depends on the spread

and how the main LP at the house your at fills orders … some good, some really

suck … and for whatever risk profile you want, if you want higher consistent VIX

then trade the NDX100 … the spread is higher and the slippage greater, and along

with the DOW30 at Coinexx, both suck as trading vehicles cuz of horrendous

slippage IMHO … your house may be different and better, and it could be worse

as well … in the days ahead, I most likely will do some “Spoos” trades, and we’ll

see how we get treated … onto the week.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: INSTITUTIONS WILL GO FULL RETARD FOMO

“Yes, I know the feeling!!”

I start today’s blog update with the 20 Day Range & Median values for our

3 PAMM markets [BTC, ETH, “SPOOS”] directly below.

click on table to enlarge

Two metrics immediately stand out to me, both disturbing … 1) the SP500

[SPOOS”] as a trading vehicle stink at the moment, and 2) the ratio of NYSE

MEDIAN VALUES FOR BTC & ETH / DAILY AVERAGES HAS SUNK INTO THE

LOW 50’S … more and better moves are coming overnight … how low can this

metric go?

What we don’t know about this latest bull run in both BTC & ETH, simply cuz

ETFs only started January 10, 2024 in BTC, barely 2 months ago, with ETH

coming later this year, is any kind of history of institutions or corporate demand

structures [banks, hedge funds, HFTs, insurance companies, or major

corporations] that can give us a hint as to their behavior … from what I see over

in “Stock Bellies” [DOW30, SP500, and/or NDX100], particularly the mega tech

tulip bulb darlings, the real world versus the prices of the “Stonks” reflects

prices for Unicorn meat … in other words, it’s BTFD FOREVER! … and of

course, that arena is dominated by institutions, so why not the same

phenomena in crypto with heavy emphasis on the big 2, BTC & ETH going

forward? … “WTF!, if the tech darlings can go up THOUSANDS OF PERCENT

OVER A FEW YEARS, with nary a drop in price but ‘tis a mere scratch, WHY

NOT CRYPTO? … in fact, we may be at the very start of the biggest bull run

in any market the world has ever seen, with values for BTC & ETH that sound

insane!” … thank you very much corrupt government that has given us

depreciating fiat!

At the major crypto houses [e.g., Phemex & Binance], it now costs right around

$4 per 1 ETH coin for “gas fees” [round turn commissions = 0.12% of notional

trade size ] … at Coinexx, when conditions aren’t bat shit crazy [BSC] and price

isn’t shooting straight up or down in chunks, the spread is usually well under

50 cents per coin … RT commish has up ticked about a penny to 7 cents per

1 lot cuz of the price increase … and yes, none of that guarantees a decent fill,

as my last trade in ETH at Coinexx was an embarrassment to the concept of

price discovery … still made money on the trade, but still it’s the principle of

the thing with these thieving, scumbag HFT [probably Citadel or BlackRock] LPs

… point is, the vast majority of the time our costs will be lower … much lower

… pretty much NOT the case in BTC, and it’s why I prefer ETH as a trading

vehicle … in my mind, it’s simply the new NASDAQ … give it a few years, and

it’ll be over $10K and climbing … onto the week. 

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: HOT MONEY ALWAYS HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE

 

“Lounging around at home with the “hot money” crowd!!”

The world collectively has about $150 TRILLION DOLLARS of financial assets

floating around, and thanks to central bank scumbags who are inflating fiat at

a record pace, that will more than likely grow at an 8%+ clip well into the future

… how much of that is “hot money” is debatable, depending on how you define

the term, but it isn’t insignificant … and since we came up from out of the goo,

a lot of that money is constantly looking for a home that yields higher returns

… and with the introduction of the modern era of trading in the mid 1970’s,

“hot money” has never had it so good! … and from where I sit, it ain’t slowing

down, especially with those in their 20’s - 40’s, who wonder every 30 seconds

how the fuck do I live in this shit while maintaining anything normal like my

parents & grand parents assumed was the right course … that college

indoctrination piece of paper is useless and worthless in anything but STEM,

so where to turn?

I made the “command decision” a while ago to focus on just 3 markets going

forward … SP500 [“SPOOS”], Bitcoin [BTCUSD], &  ETHEREUM [ETHUSD]

… GOLD MIGHT BE ADDED LATER cuz it has potential, but right now it sucks

with a higher than needed spread and slippage … who needs that shit?

I’ll be presenting in a week or so, the final version of the trading algorithm for

scalpers and day traders, with these 3 markets in focus … today, I want to

highlight the “vegas mq4 files” for these markets, that can be downloaded from

“Download Links” in the Directory “PAMM 3 MARKET MQ4

FILES_SP500_BTCUSD_ETHUSD”.

RM=1, & RM=2 are used on the m1 candlestick, while RM=3 & RM=4 are used on

the m15 candlestick chart … obviously, price can go past these levels when SHTF

in a serious way, but 99.5%+ of the time these levels will hold for traders … when

they don’t hold RM=4, just “let ‘em go” into “The Twilight Zone” until the dust

settles … especially in crypto, don’t get caught doing “stupid shit” and

bankrupt your account by saying, “well, this can’t happen! … and then sit there

like a deer in headlights while it does happen!

Support / Resistance levels calculated for the various 1 - 4 RM [Risk Model]

levels, are calculated from Gann’s Square of Nine, which you can get here and

create your own tables.

https://www.bonniehill.net/pages.aux/gann/sq9.html

The cell values are based on a 15 EMA, and all support / resistance levels are

either on the Cardinal Cross [RED] lines, or the Diagonal Cross [BLUE] lines at

either triangles or conjunctions. Here are the cell values from the Square of

Nine for each market directly below.

Directly below, this week’s 20 Day Range & Median values forSP500, BTCUSD, &

ETHUSD … I’VE ALSO ADDED the percentage move for the day of the NYSE

versus the daily range, where the NYSE median is divided into the daily average.

click on table to enlarge

Onto the week! … OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of

sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!!

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: GO TRUCKERS! … STRANGLE NYC!

 

“Is there a time limit to list ALL OF THE THINGS!!?”

Fuck New York! … another blue city shithole dotting the landscape of the

Banana Republic … arrogant & insufferable Libtards, crooked POLS, even more

corrupt legal system, pays illegal immigrants cash money, a dirty grimy pile of

shit, rude people, home to the money laundering NYSE, home to virus scum

Wall Street banks, sky high inflation, and last but not least the worst sports

teams on the planet … why shouldn’t truckers boycott this third world shithole?

… the effort here by truckers who are Trump supporters and see the outrageous

verdict in his civil trial, which should be overturned on appeal, but who knows?

… the link below.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fk-around-find-out-truckers-warn-loads-nyc

-will-be-rejected-starting-monday

With a completely clueless Marxist Mayor, city council, and local Stalinist POLS

running things, the only 2 things New York City has plenty of are 1) rats [the

rodent variety mostly, but plenty of the human variety as well], and 2) illegal

immigrants … starve the Libtard Cucks truckers, you’ve got my full support!

… then carry it on to all of the other third world, nightmare shitboxes of filth &

corruption, like D.C. [no more “Depends” deliveries to the WH & Senate],

Chicago, Atlanta [no more deliveries of wine & Grey Goose], Philly, etc.

Directly below, this week’s 20 Day Range MA & MEDIAN values for BTC, ETH,

& SP500 [“SPOOS”] … ETH perking up some, but the “Spoos” are simply

pathetic, hovering near decade lows in terms of VIX … ranges & trading action

pathetic … how long can this last?

click on table to enlarge

Onto the week … OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of

sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!!

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas