WHEN SHTF ON A MONDAY

 

“Running a large hedge fund & not caring about RISK!”

Welp! … we now have some answers to Friday’s plunge in “Stonks”, followed by

the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] buy-a-thon … today’s worry, though, is the

brokerage fallout from that and it looks like Credit Suisse is on the hook for

some serious losses … “wait, wut? … there supposed to be “Swiss” and of the

highest pedigree when it comes to managing risk … well, nothing like floating

some dollars in front of your eyes to make you think you don’t see what you

should see"!

Started today with an internet outage that was supposed to end at 6:00 A.M, but

since this is the Caribbean, and nobody here can tell time worth a shit, I finally

got back on around 9:20 A.M. EST … I can B.I. Itch ‘til my face turns blue, but

nobody cares here, they just laugh at you and go about doing all the worthless

shit they always do … so, after living here over 5+ years now, I’m better at

accepting the “manana attitude” prevalent here in the Caribbean.

Dollar flows into Cable at the European open, only to see a massive sell off

[and almost double reversal on the day … still early, so it’s still a possibility]

when gold tanked below 1720 … “Stonks” all over the place at the NYSE open,

and the indices [“Stock Bellies”] mirroring a craps game in Las Vegas

… FUBAR top to bottom.

Meanwhile, rates on the 10 YR go stubbornly higher, which I’m pretty sure has

led gold lower … and the metals look worse than death on a stick at the moment

… from the long side, just nothing but trouble as every frickin’ rally of anything is

sold and sold heavy … when you look at FX, it’s hard to not hate every pair, as all

of the major central banks are filled with Nitwits, Scumbags, Apparatchiks, and

those looking to line their pocket at every opportunity, while simultaneously

screwing the middle & lower classes in their respective country by going full

retard CNTRL-P … none of course bigger than the faculty lounge Lizards at the

FED, where since 1913 they’ve done a bang up job of ruining the dollar and

lowering the standard of living for everyone but the 0.00001%, which of course

is who they listen to and kiss ass … still, it’s hard to see most days which central

bank is worse, as they all race each other to the bottom of currency devaluation.

One algo buy signal in GBPUSD today … TURNKEY PAMM UP SLIGHTLY.

There were 5 signals I couldn’t take from the European open to when I got internet

back on and running … and since gold puked, action has slowed “bigly & yuge”,

and now into the New York afternoon with Europe closed, Cable is slowing

remarkably and it’s drifting with a lower bias, that unless rates or “Stonks” go

magically higher, order flow looks and feels “stuck” long, but who knows what

the criminals of Wall Street have planned for the afternoon … and as most days

will attest, after Europe closes, FX crawls thereafter ‘til the Asia open some 8

hours later … get a trading signal and it doesn’t mean much unless there’s news

… and what that means is it’s time to hit the exit gate.

Over in crypto, BTC up from the weekend on news Visa will be soon taking

Bitcoin for payment on Visa cards … for all of you gold lovers and Bitcoin haters

out there, when do they add gold as a payment option? … oh right never, and

now you know just one of the many reasons why BTC goes up and gold continues

to go down … for “The Syndicate” today, some signals in ONTUSDT [Ontology],

which I’m coming to appreciate more as a trading vehicle … better pricing and

movement than either BTC, ETH, & ADA … anyway, we’re UP SLIGHTLY, as after

New York got going everything but “Stonks” frickin’ dies, and crypto is no

exception … “Asia flies, Europe sleeps, and the U.S. session frickin’ DIES”!

… but I will be trading more ONT going forward, with some early Asian session

action [if it’s there] before I call it a night.

Better trading action today in Cable, but I wonder how much of that is due to end

of Q1 flows? … and with rates [10 YR] going higher, why is Cable hanging onto 3

days in a row up? [close to UNCH now, so we’ll see what trouble the afternoon

brings] … seems like all of FX is nothing but a trading Ponzi scheme, with “you

know who” running the show” … EURUSD with a 30 PIP range for the day … what

the hell is that? … talk about manipulated or what? … playing any type of

“fun-durr-mentals” is a fool’s errand, cuz there ain’t any … on the surface, only

rate differentials, but that leads & lags so badly it’s worthless … every bit of FX

is manipulated bullshit by central bank planners hell bent on implementing their

destructive policies on their country for the benefit of the global elite & their

banker buds who supply the “skim” to their Bitcoin e-wallets, and unless you

realize what you’re up against and how to defeat it, they’ll carry your account

out “toes up”, and you’ll feel like the “Chump” at the poker table and wonder

WTF happened … well for sure, they aren’t gonna tell you Skippy! … the algo

really does a great job of keeping any trader on the right side of the market,

modeling price behavior based on “buy fuel” … cuz all that matters is order

flow, and under the right circumstances the scumbag bank LP will work for you

and not against you! … if the scumbag LP banks aren’t front running corporate

orders, they’re fading order flow from specs of all stripes … and when that

order flow stops, they’ll turn it the other way and make traders bleed … they do

it every frickin’ day! … don’t bleed Skippy!

Just remember, you get rich from trading in 2 ways … 1) not getting whacked,

and 2) money you make is MONEY YOU KEEP! … until tomorrow … “the future’s

so bright I need sunglasses”!  😎 … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

FX IS WAKING UP, ESPECIALLY USDJPY

“Meet your new BFF, the EURJPY market!”

Well, how utterly convenient! … USDJPY finally showing a pulse, since the

bloodbath in markets in March and joining EURUSD in what could be the very

beginning of a gigantic dollar collapse I have warned about before on the blog

posts …. and maybe … no DEFINITELY!, that means a pickup in IVIX and ranges

not only in Yen, but also in EURJPY … and quite frankly, given the way EURUSD

can trade on many days, with downright pitiful European session ranges locked

in the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD], any kind of welcome movement in

USDJPY means more & better opportunity in EURJPY by comparison

… yesterday & so far today a perfect illustration, as today sees after

approximately 3 - 3 ½ hours of European trading EURJPY with an approximate

60 PIP range, and by comparison EURUSD an approximate 36 PIP range … and

as New York comes into trade, who knows what happens in FX as tomorrow

sees a FED meeting on interest rates … “buckle up Skippy”!

I’ve traded EURJPY since the beginning of online trading some 20+ years ago

… before electronic trading it had no spec interest simply cuz the CME in

Murder, Illinois ony had the dollar dominated majors with no crosses, and at the

start of the century it was the only cross that had a relatively reasonable

bid/offer spread … if memory serves me correctly it was around 4 PIPS … by

2010 it had fallen to approximately 2 ½ PIPS, and in “dribs & drabs” since then

it’s now under 1 PIP, where at COINEXX & Turnkey it’s currently around 0.5 - 0.7

PIPS … in the March slaughter of markets, it was running around 1 ½ - 2 PIPS,

but IVIX was off the charts, even though ranges were generally contained to

around 200 PIPS, with one day at 300+ PIPS … it’s by far the most heavily traded

cross, rivaled only by EURGBP & GBPJPY, so liquidity & volumes are generally

excellent.

I hesitate to trade Yen straight up, cuz when it slows down it goes dead quickly

… by comparison, I don’t see any downside of trading EURJPY rather than

EURUSD … if both Yen & Euro are dead, what’s the difference? … if EURUSD is

active, it’ll be reflected in the cross as well, but the added kicker is the fact that

on most days, Yen moves opposite the other majors, which means their

respective crosses exhibit much greater intraday volatility … the other majors

versus the Yen have too high of bid/offer spread for what the market is giving

you … in other words, you pay for volatility, but 90% of the time you’re

overpaying for the other 10% of the time … with EURJPY, the spread is only

fractionally higher [usually 0.2 PIPS] so it’s not an issue, and we get

approximately 20% - 30%+ more IVIX … the trading algorithm works excellently

in this market, so what’s not to like here?

Make no mistake, on most days, it’s the crosses that drive trading in the major

dollar pairs, as cross flows between countries is more important than whatever

Spicoli is saying or whether or not “risk” is “on or off” … bottom line is simple:

we get plenty more algorithm trade signals in EURJPY than we get in EURUSD,

so if EURJPY “goes dry”, imagine what EURUSD would be like? ...yes, horrible

beyond words! … the key criteria here is of course the bid/offer spread, and

having it at 0.4 - 0.6 PIPS with a 0.2 PIP RT commission, means total cost under

1 PIP … given the IVIX & VIX of this pair, that’s a steal for us and about as good

as you’re gonna get anywhere … “in essence, it’s the DOW30 MINUS the

horseshit of HORRENDOUS SLIPPAGE & ranges that make no sense from the

perspective of risk control” … all it takes to move EURJPY are fractional PIP

moves in either Yen or Euro, so if your trade entry is right, it will “pop” … given

the IVIX, there’s no shortage of “buy fuel” at the proper times, and quite frankly

I don’t give a shit whether gains come from Euro or Yen or both, I simply care

about making money! … “just look at this cross and think “soiled underwear”

futures, and you won't be far off”! … So starting today, I’ll be trading EURJPY

as a proxy for Euro.

I thought yesterday was bad … today shaped up in the first half of the day as

worse for EURUSD, with tomorrow looking like death on a stick in the NYSE

hours, as markets will surely wait for the 2 PM EST FED interest rate decision,

accompanying statement, and of course Spicoli’s presser … and that’s some

2+ hours after Europe closes, so tomorrow has bullshit written all over it … but

then after stocks opened today, all hell broke loose, and the dollar dumped hard

and fast led by the Yen crosses, and while EURUSD melted up, there was very

little if any flow to the trade … as for the low of the day, a complete bullshit led

stop hunt by the scumbag LP banks that saw a “V” shaped bottom with

immediate panic buying … these people should be in jail, but we already know

that.

The trade in EURJPY today was dramatically different! … a little over 5+ hours

into the day and EURJPY already had an approximate 90 PIP range, making a

complete “round tripper” from high to low to back to another high … mostly

thanks to Yen, but it dragged Euro higher in the process as EURJPY shorts

panicked … an amazing 10+ buy signals and the day was only about 60% over

… granted, not everyday is like this, but it isn’t “rare” either … looking at the

daily candlestick, about on a par with normal ranges, with this week’s 20 Day

Range MA coming in at approximately 105.5 PIPS, and the days range so far at

about a little less than 130 PIPS … so, nothing unusual here.

What you have to always keep in mind when trading crosses, is that “it’s the

cross stupid” that counts and NOT the individual components … movements in

Yen will move the cross farther and faster cuz it’s the denominator, while the

numerator Euro moves it a little slower … trade the cross, and don’t worry about

the individual FX pairs … crosses “run”, so it’s important to NOT try and catch

the proverbial “knife from the airplane” or you’ll run out of fingers … and from

the “runs” you’ll get very nice trades to profit from on scalps … much better

than in simply USDJPY or EURUSD, and most importantly, you can utilize lower

trade volumes to achieve your profit goals.

If you think buying rallies is a bad idea in the dollar pairs, I got a news flash for

you … IT’S DEADLY in the crosses, so don’t do it … 99% of the time crosses

“correct” and retrace, so there’s no reason to FOMO a cross … understand this,

or they carry your account out toes up! … remember, PANIC rules FX crosses!

… and the trading algorithm specifically targets “panic” cuz that creates

“buy fuel”, and while others create the up spikes, we liquidate into them for

profit … and with meaningless commissions and a spread of 0.4 - 0.6 PIPS,

what’s not to like here?

Two algorithm trades today, one in EURUSD & one in EURJPY … TURNKEY

PAMM / MAM UP SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 0.1%

What I traded yesterday in EURUSD volume wise, today sees BETTER LATENCY

TIME ON FILLS IN EURJPY, AND NO SLIPPAGE, using far less leverage and

volume than yesterday … took an algorithm buy signal in EURJPY and it was

simply “time to ride the pony” up and liquidate on a spike, and in the process

had a lot less theoretical risk on the trade than I was carrying yesterday … so

like I said, what’s not to like here? … “oh, won’t tomorrow be interesting with

the faculty lounge meeting on interest rates? … should be an interesting night

into the European morning, where New York will snooze ‘till 2 PM EST … more

profit less risk, without the bullshit … I like that, and so should you!

Before Europe closed, I was watching both EURUSD & EURJPY like a hawk

looking for food from 1,000 feet up in the air … and what I wanted to discern

was whether the bullshit “mystery ticks” in EURUSD carried over to EURJPY

and were reflected in that market’s quote box … cuz what pisses me off to no

end, is what takes place most days, and that’s the mystery ticks when you go

to buy or liquidate, and even if you do it correctly, you “click” the offer button

and here comes the ½ - 1 PIP uptick in the offer out of nowhere, and once filled

it goes right back down to where it was microseconds earlier … so when I see

that in EURUSD, does it get reflected in EURJPY, and the answer is most times

NOT! … and the reason is, that EURJPY is its own market with its own flow &

dynamics, and just cuz some scumbag LP bank screwed you for change,

doesn’t mean the EURJPY marked cared enough for the bid/offer to change

with it … and this is a definite positive!

Don’t get me wrong, EURJPY has its own sets of moments, especially when

USDJPY goes berserk … in addition, there are stop hunts that can get quite

messy at key daily / weekly / monthly chart points, and you need to have

“situational awareness” of those points … “but, it frickin’ moves”! … not as bat

shit crazy as the DOW30, so risk can be maintained adequately, unlike the

“Stock Bellies” where nobody has a fucking clue where risk is, either on the

upside or the downside … and with increased IVIX comes MOAR “buy fuel”,

which is what the algorithm needs to be profitable … both yesterday & today in

EURUSD points out the problem with Euro straight up trading, and that is one

day the European session ekes out a 40 PIP range, and the next day [today] it’s

120 PIPS … feast or famine, so where do you tell the difference? … you leave it

alone and it blows up, and you get in and hold on and it bleeds you dry as it

just slips away quietly back to the middle and ends the day … it’s maddening to

be sure, but what solves that if you trade Euro straight up, is that your IVIX in

EURJPY is at least 5X higher, and the “pops” are far superior to anything you

get 99% of the time in EURUSD … compare today to both on the M1’s and you’ll

see the difference!

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas