SUNDAY UPDATE: SPOTLIGHT SHINES ON THE “SPOOS”

 

“I am not superstitious! … but why take any chances!!?”

That was some New York trading session on Friday … even FX briefly woke up

… for our PAMM markets, it was bat shit crazy [BSC] right down the line

… crypto got mauled, gold & silver put in massive refersals in price, and the

“Spoos” got whacked by Paulie & Sil … ranges blown to shit early, and it was

a race to the bottom.

The very first concern any trader should have is the total cost of what it is

he/she/it is trading … at Coinexx, bid/offer spread + SLIPPAGE in the other 2

“Stock Bellies” CFDs, namely the DOW30 & NDX100, make them unattractive

IMHO to trade … it remains to be seen what awaits us in the “Spoos”, but most

days conditions fall around industry norms and values … what separates the

“Stock Bellies” from other market offerings is that they operate in the “88/6/6”

paradigm of trading [88% of the time higher, 6% of the time sideways, and 6% of

the time they’re getting the shit beat out of ‘em] … and for that reason alone, I

stay on the LONG side of any and ALL trades … avoid getting whacked on the

back “6” and you’ll need super tanker ships to take the money away, IT’S AS

SIMPLE AS THAT!

To that end, a conservative trader might choose to trade “Spoos” from the long

side  when 1) the m15 ZLMA [zero lag moving average], period 15, is “white” [up

slope for rising price momentum], AND 2) the m1 ZMLA is either white, or has

just changed colors with the MACD [8 period fast, 15 period slow, EMA]] going

above the “0” level [yellow line] on the histogram below the m1 chart, or is

already above “0” and starts rising again … of course, “FOMO & MOMO” change,

but they do so with the color changes, not out of the blue … it is rare to get

consistent buy signals in an up market that only trap you before you can exit

with a scalp profit before changing short term “FOMO & MOMO” … it’s a lot

more common when the m15 is “hot pink” on the ZLMA, indicating a down price

move is in effect.

At this time, I don’t think I need to change the “vegas mq4 code” for the “Spoos”

to adjust it for higher volatility … maybe later, but not now … RM levels should

be taken with a “grain of salt” when 1) daily or weekend opens come, and 2) econ

reports, FED reports, and FED Lounge Lizards speaking hit the market and there

are very sharp and sudden up/down moves … RM levels are for normal trading,

not news events!

I’ve changed the “vegas mq4 code” for gold on the m15 chart ONLY … that code

is over in “Download Links” and is for the m15 chart only … the m1 stays the

same and uses the current “vegas mq4 code” … higher volatility in gold

necessitates larger volatilities for the longer time period of m15 … no changes

to silver yet.

Directly below the week’s 20 Day Range & Median values for our 5 PAMM markets.

click on table to enlarge

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😍😍,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

OF COURSE IT’S “RIGGED” … IT ALWAYS HAS BEEN!

 

“When you’re on the wrong side of a trade in a rigged market!!”

They trade billions, if not trillions per day, yet they never get into trouble with

their trades … why is that? … cuz they’re sooooo smart? … maybe it’s cuz of

what I’ve known for decades, first observing it in trading pits … the data game is

“RIGGED”, and they are positioned perfectly for what is coming at the appointed

time … doubt me? … well now we know from the BLS it’s true, thanks to ZH

… the link directly below.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/scandal-rocks-bidens-labor-dept-lying-

about-sharing-non-public-inflation-data-secret-group

I have maintained for decades, that ALL REPORTS ISSUED BY GOVERNMENT

[including the FED] be done on Saturday mornings … this way ALL MARKET

PARTICIPANTS, LARGE AND SMALL, CAN ASSESS HOW THEY WANT TO

TRADE COME SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE OPEN AND BEYOND DURING THE

WEEK … but that ain’t ever gonna happen cuz scumbag LP banks and HFTs

have got to have the ability to screw over institutional & spec accounts for all

they are worth, and since the POLS, Apparatchiks, & regulators want their

“skim”, it’ll continue and never change.

Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … Whoops!, not even the whiz kids can lie

about this one, a little hotter than “Taliban Joe” would like to see, and more

importantly the 10 YR. Treasury over 4.5% yield now and rising … no worries,

just print MOAR! … consumer prices, as measured by the government which are

woefully inadequate as well as inaccurately underreported, are up 19% since

“Diaper Joe” has been Preezy … not a single month this Doofus has been

Preezy have prices fallen … worst Preezy in history, and at least Jimmy Carter

feels a sense of relief! … digging through the data, I do note that typewriter

ribbon and horseshoes fell in price, so at least the Amish might be happy

… question is, though, with everybody and their pet rabbit positioned long gold,

where are the stops you absolutely know the bigger players have their eyes on?

… wait for it, it’s coming!, and you won’t need me to tell you about it, cuz you’ll

see the down “bigly & yuge” red spikes on the m15 and the m1.

With today’s casino action brought to you by government, a few things need to

be mentioned that have a direct bearing on trading these more volatile markets

… 1) especially with “important” numbers being released as determined by the

propagandists on Wall Street, you need to recognize that the RM levels upon

release of data DON’T MEAN MUCH OF ANYTHING! … meaning panic has no

bounds and can’t be measured by us cuz we have no way of seeing order flow

coming through institutional order desks … 2) RM levels currently constructed

for gold and “Spoos” are undervalued and need to be raised to higher volatilities

… RM=4 levels should in no way, at least theoretically, be hitting this MAX as

often as it is … LESS THAN 5 TIMES PER YEAR, NOT EVERY DAY WE TRADE!

… and 3) I’m adding spot silver [XAGUSD] TO OUR PAMM TRADING LIST MIX,

BRINGING OUR COVERED MARKETS TO 5 … the “vegas mq4 code for support /

resistance levels” based on volatility is available now over in “Download Links”

for silver … current RM levels are RM=1 & RM=2 for the m1 chart, and RM=2 &

RM=3 for the m15 chart … I’ll be updating the 20 Day Range MA & MEDIAN, and

I’ll have new higher VIX RM levels for gold and “Spoos” on the upcoming

Sunday blog update.

Now that silver has broken through $26 per OZ., going forward there should be

some really good trading opportunities … better than gold I would say with a

better bid/offer spread of usually under 1 penny per OZ., but will blow out on

sharp moves up/down … quite frankly, paying 35 - 40 cents per OZ. in gold AND

having to deal with sometimes horrendous slippage is a pain in the ass … I don’t

know how slippage is going to be in silver, but I don’t see how it can get any

worse than gold … in any event, I’ll start with low volumes and work from there

… GiddyUp! … once up & running, let me remind traders, though, trade silver

based on silver signals, NOT on what’s happening in gold! … yes, they strongly

correlate positively, but different dynamics for different markets … it’s not even

11 AM EST in NY, and we got a DOUBLE REVERSAL GOING IN SILVER, with an

approximate 89 cent range [so far]! … and as you’ll see, RM=2 on the m15 chart,

and RM=1 on the m1 chart, hold very well … better really … EXCEPTIONAL!,

IN FACT!

With the exception of the 2 crypto pairs BTC & ETH, where spreads and very high

margins require a lot more money in your account, and thus make them less

attractive than the other 3 pairs, all 3 of SP500, GOLD, & SILVER have moved

quite well today … out of the 3, gold the most bat shit crazy [BSC] with price

quite erratic versus the other 2 … blink your eyes, and it can get quite nasty

… the “Spoos” are getting a much needed correction, and going forward it’s a

question of where the support is on the way down … and just as an aside, the

“Spoos” are the only ones we trade that trade inside an “88/6/6” paradigm that

I have written about extensively before … the entire system is rigged to see

“Stonks” go higher, and stock markets don’t exist so prices can go lower

consistently … the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] certainly make sure of that!,

right along with corporate buybacks … and IMHO, it makes complete sense to

trade this market from the long side ONLY, but since I’m not your MOM, you

can do what you like.

Time for FED Lounge Lizards “minutes” from the last rigged meeting … just what

we need today, more VIX! … aaaaaaaaaaaaand, nobody gives a shit … rightly so,

as why would anybody in their right mind listen to these Elite assholes who spew

propaganda daily with the intent of manipulating “Stock Bellies” along with other

markets? … bought and paid for!

One trade today for the PAMM in gold … PAMM UP FRACTIONALLY … not

interested in holding anything for anything but a scalp, and this trade lasted far

too long for my liking … of course, 5 minutes later it takes off to the upside, but

that’s water under the bridge and I don’t really care … hopefully metals can

correct from here, although I’m not looking for much … “Stock Bellies” look to

be the most vulnerable, as headwinds mount via rates and geopolitical events

… onto tomorrow!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: INSTITUTIONS WILL GO FULL RETARD FOMO

“Yes, I know the feeling!!”

I start today’s blog update with the 20 Day Range & Median values for our

3 PAMM markets [BTC, ETH, “SPOOS”] directly below.

click on table to enlarge

Two metrics immediately stand out to me, both disturbing … 1) the SP500

[SPOOS”] as a trading vehicle stink at the moment, and 2) the ratio of NYSE

MEDIAN VALUES FOR BTC & ETH / DAILY AVERAGES HAS SUNK INTO THE

LOW 50’S … more and better moves are coming overnight … how low can this

metric go?

What we don’t know about this latest bull run in both BTC & ETH, simply cuz

ETFs only started January 10, 2024 in BTC, barely 2 months ago, with ETH

coming later this year, is any kind of history of institutions or corporate demand

structures [banks, hedge funds, HFTs, insurance companies, or major

corporations] that can give us a hint as to their behavior … from what I see over

in “Stock Bellies” [DOW30, SP500, and/or NDX100], particularly the mega tech

tulip bulb darlings, the real world versus the prices of the “Stonks” reflects

prices for Unicorn meat … in other words, it’s BTFD FOREVER! … and of

course, that arena is dominated by institutions, so why not the same

phenomena in crypto with heavy emphasis on the big 2, BTC & ETH going

forward? … “WTF!, if the tech darlings can go up THOUSANDS OF PERCENT

OVER A FEW YEARS, with nary a drop in price but ‘tis a mere scratch, WHY

NOT CRYPTO? … in fact, we may be at the very start of the biggest bull run

in any market the world has ever seen, with values for BTC & ETH that sound

insane!” … thank you very much corrupt government that has given us

depreciating fiat!

At the major crypto houses [e.g., Phemex & Binance], it now costs right around

$4 per 1 ETH coin for “gas fees” [round turn commissions = 0.12% of notional

trade size ] … at Coinexx, when conditions aren’t bat shit crazy [BSC] and price

isn’t shooting straight up or down in chunks, the spread is usually well under

50 cents per coin … RT commish has up ticked about a penny to 7 cents per

1 lot cuz of the price increase … and yes, none of that guarantees a decent fill,

as my last trade in ETH at Coinexx was an embarrassment to the concept of

price discovery … still made money on the trade, but still it’s the principle of

the thing with these thieving, scumbag HFT [probably Citadel or BlackRock] LPs

… point is, the vast majority of the time our costs will be lower … much lower

… pretty much NOT the case in BTC, and it’s why I prefer ETH as a trading

vehicle … in my mind, it’s simply the new NASDAQ … give it a few years, and

it’ll be over $10K and climbing … onto the week. 

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: GRASS IS ALWAYS GREENER OVER THE FENCE

 

“Who knew cows are traders!!”

You can slice it, dice it, analyze the data 6 ways from Sunday, but no matter what

you do the inescapable conclusion you’re going to end up with will point to 2

trading “truths” … 1) markets need volatility [VIX], not close to close on the

daily candlestick, but in the session you’re trading … unless you’re willing to be

a “meth head”, nobody can trade the 120 hours in a week … you have to pick

your session, which implies the need for a somewhat steady & stable worldwide

market VIX you can rely on … this doesn’t exist currently in ANY MARKET, and

that includes crypto [BTC & ETH] … this fact alone is a huge advantage scumbag

banks have over specs, cuz the banks simply pass their “book” from time zone

to time zone and never miss a beat … you on the other hand can’t do this … and

if you try [and I have and failed miserably], you’ll end up playing “Whack-A-Mole”

and every market you ignore will move and everyone you watch intently dies on

the vine!

We are in the greatest central banker market manipulation era the world has ever

seen … this is “truth” #2) … ever since the EURCHF debacle on January 15, 2015,

markets have entered a new paradigm of central bank control … ALL OF ‘EM

from crude oil & FX to “Stock Bellies”, and everything in between … with only an

occasional blip of VIX to allow the release of some built up pressure, a simple

look at daily charts before 2015 and daily charts AFTER 2015, and it’s night and

day difference in all of the so called traditional financial “markets” [cough,

bullshit, cough] … they’ve morphed from volatile markets into lottery tickets.

The last few weeks notwithstanding cuz they’ve sucked, historically crypto

[BTC & ETH] and one or any of the “Stock Bellies” markets [DOW30, NDX100,

SP500 (“SPOOS”) HAVE TO A DEGREE MAINTAINED SOME LEVEL OF

HALF-WAY DECENT VIX … 6 weeks into 2024, and it’s a pretty piss poor table

of VIX values, with a day last week not seen in terms of low VIX in the “Spoos”

in over 20 years! … and in crypto, the new kid on the BTC playground, which are

the ETFs [13 of ‘em], have the potential to upend the “Whales” as market movers,

being replaced by institutional Morons … to soon to tell who wins this high

stakes poker game, but my guess is the corporate “Jimbos” in big company

treasury departments have more ammo, and will panic first over & above any

“Whale” sitting out there … and looking at the first 6 weeks of 2024, so far we

have gotten a big break from 49K down to 39K, followed by an almost straight up

move back to 48K on Friday … welcome to BTC ETFs!, how do you like the

“grass” so far? 

I’ve pretty much given up on any hope that FX, gold, and oil can hold and

maintain any consistent level of VIX … what an absolute FUBAR bunch of joke

markets … everything is either a C4 explosion, or it’s dead in the water … take

away microsecond moves on Apparatchik lips moving and spewing lies, or any

of the made up from fiction economic reports, and ranges diminish rather quickly

from bad to worse to worser-er-er … you’re never gonna be able to catch any of

those moves cuz 1) the bid/offer spread blows out, 2) slippage goes orbital, and

3) if you think the scumbag bank or HFT LP is gonna cut you some slack and

hand out a decent fill, then I got farmland in North Korea to sell you! … CHEAP!

… right next to Uncle Kim’s house with a great view!

So my “command decision” is to stay put in the trading pasture of green grass

that makes up 1) BTC [Bitcoin], 2) Ethereum, and 3) the “Spoos” [SP500 CFD]

… all 3 traded on the MT4 / MT5, and while the “Spoos” are slightly higher in

cost at Coinexx [0.2 index points, versus SIMPLE FX which has the best spread],

overall Coinexx has far superior LOWER crypto costs than anybody I’ve seen on

the MT4 / MT5, and depending on BTC price anywhere from 30% - 40% cheaper

than trading costs at Phemex or Binance on an “open order book” [OOB]

platform … and yes, Coinexx can be “slippage whores”, just like anywhere you

go, so if you press the “buy” button and BTC is going up like a shooting star in

the night sky, you ain’t gonna like your fill … BUT I’ve never had a problem with

crypto withdrawal from them, and so at least for now they got that going for

themselves.

Given this somewhat new paradigm for the PAMM’S trading markets, I’ve

rearranged the weekly 20 Day Range MA & MEDIAN values and shortened the list

to our 3 markets … everything else is bullshit anyway! … Directly below the table

for the week.

click on table to enlarge

A couple of things need to be considered when viewing this table … 1) the

average [A] & median [M] values are from NYSE hours, i.e 9:30 AM EST - 4 PM

EST …this cuts out the microsecond large moves that come with bullshit econ

reports from the propaganda whiz kids in “The Swamp” at mostly 08:30 AM EST,

and gives a better idea of what you can expect … while we can’t eliminate FED

meetings that skew the shit out of price, if they skew large enough then use the

median values … 2) in BTC, you need to SUBTRACT ABOUT $30 FROM THESE

VALUES CUZ OF THE SPREAD, AND FOR ETH ABOUT $1 … I could sit here all

day and list the “pros & cons” of ETH versus BTC … in the final analysis, pick

your poison and go with it … as for the “Spoos”, a median value just above 30

index points is really piss poor … remember the consecutive weeks above 100

index points? … now down around 30? … yea, pretty pathetic, but the future

holds unlimited opportunity, just remember that … onto the week at hand!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas