“Say again!”
Trading has now boiled down to either 1) waiting for President Trump tweets,
or 2) headlines that spark algo HFT’s to buy/sell in a nanosecond … everything
else is “chop”. “Well, right on cue, shortly after 6 A.M. EST, here comes the latest
“I didn’t say what I said yesterday” tweet, and the DOW30 algos go berserk on the
upside … so, why not jump on board and catch some of this algo easy money”?
… Directly below, the reason why.
“Nothing says “liquidity provider” like a 13 point “Pacific Ocean” sized spread,
now does it? … and once again, for newer traders, you get a real life lesson in
trading from the scumbag LP banks who make markets for us, cuz when they
don’t want to play, you only have 2 choices; 1) sit it out, or 2) give them free
money out of your account for the experience, in which only pure luck will see
you profit now. And so it goes, another day filled with adventure via the 7-11
thieves, who then have the utter gall to tell you, “everything is F-ing AWESOME
baby!, when in fact they are attempting to rob you blind”. Scumbags top to
bottom, but we already know that.
Meanwhile, over in China, they’re quick to point out that Xi’s speech the other
day, in which every “talking head” on Wall Street said was “conciliatory”, and
led to a mini melt up in the DOW30, wasn’t according to the Chinese … no
matter, cuz that’s “old news” anyway … all that matters is can the initial
“headline” spur the “algo ramp” and benefit the banks who front run the
orders… up or down doesn’t matter; chaos is what matters, and we’ve
certainly had plenty of that, and not really gone anywhere in the process over
these last weeks.
My point in highlighting this today is simple: “if things really do get out of
control, especially on the downside via real events, not simply “coulda, woulda,
shoulda” headlines that for the most part are total bat guano, expect spreads to
blow out considerably, and trading conditions to deteriorate rapidly to the point
you won’t recognize what you’re trading. For that simple reason, you must have
some sense of “situational awareness” I have talked about repeatedly … know
where your risks are, and know when to leave it alone”.
Turning to today’s trading … “Chipmunk ramp” ✔, spreads widen ✔, scumbag
LP banks handing out slippage like Halloween candy ✔ … “what could possibly
go wrong in the new wartime stock market”?
And while trading conditions continue to deteriorate, almost to the level of a
roulette wheel, the daily ranges are shrinking somewhat, but the intraday
volatility is still “off the charts” … these “air pockets” the market goes through
on a daily basis, you can place right at the feet of the Twits at the FED, and
their idiotic QE program … this is what you get when it all ends!
A shipload of trades today … PAMM up a few bucks shy of 0.1%.
Quite frankly, at times during the NYSE day, the quickness of the speed at
which price moves in the DOW30 takes your breath away … with a current M1
grid of 15 - 20 points, price covers that in almost 75% of all M1’s, and it goes
from top to bottom and back again, multiple times in a minute … problem is
when it runs, look the hell out, both on the upside and the downside, cuz you
have no idea the scope to which it can gallop away.
And as bad as the first half of the NYSE day is, the last half is a nightmare
… get caught on the wrong side of one of those moves, and I have no advice on
how to get it back. Again, I don’t mind being long in the afternoon if price is
rallying … but throw in some serious breakdowns in price, and there is no way
I want any part of this given the recent headlines that can get a helluva lot
worse before they get better. Fact is, nobody knows when the bombs start flying
in Syria… nobody knows if any Russians get killed or seriously injured and/or
how they would retaliate… nobody knows what the hell the ChiComs are really
up to with the trade war … nobody knows when the corrupt Special Counsel is
gonna drop another leaked bombshell through the NYT or the WaPo … and,
nobody knows when another Trump tweet is coming. Add it all up, and with
minutes counting down to the close, the potential for a real disaster.
ZH [Zero Hedge] picks up on a meme today, that I mentioned yesterday, and
that is how everything rallies in the morning, and then breaks in the afternoon
… we’ve yet to see a serious “ass kicking” of the DOW30 at the NYSE open, or
in the first couple of hours; it’s always been in rally mode … well, today is no
different, but the key here is what happens “FIRST” in the afternoon, AND
when does it happen; “does price break first or rally first, and MOST
IMPORTANTLY, when does it happen”.
New highs for the day, or new lows for the day, that occur during the Chicago
Noon hours 11:30 A.M. - 1:00 P.M. CST [this is 16:30 - 18:00 server time on the
Turnkey Forex MT4], have a very high probability of those moves not being
able to go much higher or lower, respectively. The reason? The market has
spent all it’s “fuel” to early, and there isn’t enough left going into the close to
see either new highs or new lows. “If I had to put a probability expectation on the
non event, I’d say it’s above 80%”. Remember, though, that’s a probability, not a
guarantee.
My last trade today, I’m long and figuring a spike to a new high during this 90
minute time frame, and I’ll liquidate, but if it can hold off until after 18:00, and
continue to hang up near the highs without any serious breaks, then you could
get a DOW30 screaming higher into the close. As it was, the market breaks to a
new high and shoots up to 24550 - 24570 area at 16:45 - 16:53 … now, 2 things
here of importance; 1) a large spike up, and 2) the timing of this new high
during the 16:30 - 18:00 time frame … both scream liquidation, which I did on
the initial spike. Now that it’s after 18:00, I don’t see anything but “chop”, cuz
it’s most likely seen the high of the day so I don’t want to be long, and it’s
sharply higher on the day, so I don’t want to be short either … what I want is
to leave it the hell alone, cuz everything is now a “coin flip”!
This is trading at its toughest … the moves here intraday, dwarf all other
markets at the moment, and have for the last few months … I don’t see that
changing anytime soon. The trick here, is riding the raging, wild bull a while
before you get thrown off, and then not getting skewered and stomped on after
you hit the ground, all the while managing risk to an acceptable level. It’s
better to do it early than do it late … volatility in other markets currently
severely lacking in this capacity, and it’s a point that is of utmost importance.
In any event, I feel like I’ve run a marathon today … up, then down, then back
on top … tomorrow’s another day … I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi
amigos … Onward & Upward!!
PAMM spreadsheet directly below.
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
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