“Houston, we may have a problem!”
Pick any financial market, and lately it’s like going airborne when the wheels
fall off … stocks, interest rates, FX … literally everything. Eventually, markets
catch on to this, and you wake up one morning, turn the machines on, and there
is … crickets … and what you discover is pure “bull market” fatigue. And that’s
what we got today in EURUSD; the market simply cannot sustain the level of
“frenzy” it’s been in since the great “Christmas Day Heist”. We’re starting the
8th straight week of gains on the weekly candlestick … to say it’s been a few
“full moons” since the last time this happened is an understatement; in fact,
you have to go back to September 2004, when EURUSD put in a 1000 PIP up
move in 11 straight weeks.
That doesn’t mean the downside is a “piece of cake” … far from it, as there
are enough up spikes to shake shorts out on the slightest provocation. What
it means, is the long side is tired. I fully realize, that “big money” longs will
protect positions, and they’ll do what’s necessary for as long as possible, to
keep the scumbag LP banks from clicking off sell stops on the downside, but
you should notice today, that there is no “fire” in the marketplace for either
getting long, adding to longs, or going for buy stops, and the resultant
manifestation of this is no really decent spikes up the entire day. Simply put,
the market is tired.
Turning to today’s market … the first 6 hours of European trading was
“zzzzzz” … a 20+ PIP something clusterfark that did nothing but yo-yo back
& forth … that all changed about half an hour from the NYSE open in New
York, as EURUSD moves quickly to challenge 1.24 on the downside … light
stops all the way down, and as I said before above, the century mark gets
defended as well. One trade today, PAMM up just shy of 0.1% … really, not
much to do from either side of the market; simply a “chopfest”, with very
tight ranges from what we’ve seen in the last weeks.
I’m not really looking for any major downside action in EURUSD this week,
unless the 10 YR. benchmark German Bund rallies and yields get lowered
… first day in 10 today, that yield is backing off the torrid pace of interest rate
increases we’ve seen the last 2 weeks. And that’s leading to the softer tone in
EURUSD. Just for the record, it’s tough to find offshore brokerage houses that
offer interest rate CFD’s, cuz they get pressured from the U.S. Treasury Dept.
[especially when ex-President Empty Suit’s regime was in power]. However,
HOT Forex does offer the US 10 YR., the 10 YR. German bund, and the 10 YR.
UK Gilt. While HOT Forex does not accept U.S. citizens and/or residents, you
can open a demo account and follow the rates … it’s better than Bloomberg
and/or CNBC, and it lets you follow the all important 10 YR rates in real time.
Hopefully, tomorrow sees some more pressure that takes EURUSD below 1.24.
It needs to spend some time lower, and my fear is, that if they blow it yet again
out the topside, and close higher for the week, all it’s doing is setting up an ugly
ending when it comes. We’ll see … so far, the sell stops on the downside have
been very tame and orderly … I’d like to see that change to wash the market
out of some long positions … to go higher, it really needs to see something along
those lines.
Nevertheless, the “name of the game” is making money … you can play
“analyst” all day long. It simply doesn’t matter what you make; what matters
is not losing and moving forward … and to that end, all that matters is the
“setup” … cuz if you got the “setup” correctly, the probabilities are so heavily
skewed in your favor it’s ridiculous … I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi
amigos … Onward & Upward!!
PAMM spreadsheet directly below.
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
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