SUNDAY UPDATE: DELUSIONAL REALITY, THEN THERE’S CRYPTO

 

“It’s EVERYWHERE in financial markets … know the reality, then defeat it!!”

I’m gonna start with traditional markets and work my way over into crypto

… there is no bigger “delusional reality” than “Stock Bellies”, with FED

manipulation via the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] when banks get stuck

long futures and need a little help from central bank Apparatchiks … then there’s

the scam of “corporate buybacks”, pumping “Stonks” [the right ones] higher

cuz it reduces the float of stock outstanding, thus raising EPS [earnings per

share] while directors sit and do not a “Hoover Dam” thing, white their stock

options shoot ever higher … biggest Elitist scam going, and totally sanctioned

by the Lounge Lizards at the FED! 

In no way, shape, or form are any of the 3 “Stock Bellies” markets even close to

representing the Banana Republic economy, future earnings that are

intentionally “low balled” by “expert” analysts so they always beat expectations

[just another Wall Street scam], it’s simply a financial derivatives shitshow circus

of monetary manipulation, where Lounge Lizards manipulate rate hikes / rate cuts

“blah blah, yada yada” for the benefit of major scumbag banks on Wall Street

… when these unethical, moral hypocrites & liars retire, where the fuck do they

show up for the “quid pro quo” payoff? … that’s right, on Wall Street somewhere,

getting 7 digit “compensation packages” for their prior “grift” to their masters

… on the other side of the coin so to speak, there’s the ever present sell side

manipulation by the FED via the “”Rally Protection Team” [RPT] to suppress

gold prices, whereby they use the CNTRL-P machine to create fiat they use to

sell futures and options in massive quantities … and since there’s no

accountability OR ZERO transparency, nobody really knows the extent of the

gold market losses the FED is sandbagging on their balance sheet, but it is

generally believed by many gold analysts that it’s in the HUNDREDS OF

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF LOSSES … AND GROWING THANKS TO THE

EFFORTS OF THE CHICOMS IN CALLING THEIR BLUFF!

One of the big problems traders face when they try and analyze any of the

traditional markets on the MT4, is that VOLUME stats are skewed by institutions,

hedgers & dealers … only the banks keep the spec figures to themselves and

we ain’t ever gonna get that information cuz it’s proprietary to the bank and they

use that to manipulate order flow to their “bigly & yuge” advantage … only with

a little logical deduction can we ever hope to get close to the truth of what specs

[and ONLY specs] are doing at the moment in real time … it’s a big problem for

traditional markets, but since crypto pairs are almost 100% spec driven &

oriented [no banks, just “arbs” that reflect spec order flow … they ain’t there to

speculate on where price is going.], volume stats at major crypto houses can be

very valuable indeed!

For “arb scalping” on IQCENT, or simply scalping and/or day trading, you have

to have another major house providing accurate up-to-the-second market

bid/offer data [e.g., Binance or Phemex] for crypto, and if your trading traditional

markets at IQCENT [e.g., EURUSD], a house provider with ZERO SPREAD or a

place like Coinexx, which has a very tight spread, OTHERWISE YOU COULD GET

SCREWED ROYALLY BY PAYING A “BIGLY & YUGE” PREMIUM, to where the

market actually is at … I only use IQCENT for their “tick chart”, so I can see the

bid/offer, and where their very latest quote is at, and order entry and liquidation

… I don’t use IQCENT for charts … cuz of their “premiums & discounts” to price,

if you only use their charts you will get inaccurate information, as well as the

fact you could end up buying premium and then selling a discount, or vice versa.

Starting today, I’m changing the “arb scalping” and/or scalping & day trading

algorithm to reflect volume [MA VALUE = 10], and I’m changing the parameters to

reflect faster changes in market sentiment, especially crypto … the “TEMA”

[White line] goes to period 13, the the “EMA” [Aqua] goes to period 7 … directly

below, on the “Gann Square of Nine” [So9], you can see that the relationship flips

90°, from a 45° conjunction / opposition straight line [9 & 17 cell values], to a 135°

conjunction / opposition straight line [7 & 13 cell values].

click on ANY image, chart, or table to enlarge

I alluded on Friday to the PAMM going back to the NDX100 … that’s not gonna

happen … upon some analysis & reflection we’re sticking with Gold [XAUUSD]

for 2 big reasons … 1) we’ve finally got gold over 2K, and it looks favorable for

further range and VIX values to go substantially higher … in other words, gold is

finally reflecting the reality of the Banana Republic being on a PAR with the

Weimar Republic circa 1920’s, along with Venezuela & Zimbabwe … the ChiComs

are calling the Lounge Lizards bluff, and world central banks are noticing!

… physical gold markets in Moscow, Shanghai, & Singapore are trading at

substantial premiums to the “paper manipulation” scheme of the current gold

cartel of “COMEX / LBMA / FED” … the proverbial writing is “on the wall” for

this cartel to meet its demise! … and 2) volume figures, which I’ll show for gold

in a second, are more accurate than any of the other MT4 markets!

Currently, on this side of the globe, and via offshore brokerage houses

[e.g., Coinexx], gold can be trades in one of 3 forms … 1) regular COMEX futures

[1 lot volume = 100 oz. … 2) “MICRO” COMEX futures [1 lot volume = 10 oz

… and 3) LBMA XAUUSD [spot gold, 0.01 volume lot = 1 oz. … and on the

Coinexx MT4 platform, Coinexx uses #3.

From the CME Group, directly below are first the regular futures “volume & open

interest” through Friday’s close on December 1 … right below that are the same

stats for the “MICRO” futures contract … [the “MICRO” contract a direct

response from the CME to all of the traders who trade gold offshore in 1 oz.

increments … they don’t like losing business, but if you trade in the U.S., you’re

inviting government scrutiny and problems for yourself.

If you study these figures, you’ll notice that for regular futures, volume and open

interest [OI] are relatively steady through all of gold’s up / down movement

[note: volume & OI are down from 10 years ago, when they were DOUBLE what

they are now!] … that’s cuz almost NO SPECS TRADE THE BIGGER CONTRACT

… it’s LBMA members hedging, CTA’s [commodity funds] buying / selling, hedge

funds, and the ChiComs buying to either take delivery or using the EFP [exchange

for physical] portal to get physical within 48 hours … whatever, it’s constant.

A different story in the “micro” contract, which is almost 100% spec futures

traders in the U.S. [what idiots!] … with the gold runup in the last week or so,

look at how OI has dropped substantially from prior periods! … position traders

have taken their profits! … “micro” represents about 10% of the regular futures

volume, and it’s where the specs are … and it’s at that margin where volume

figures on a shorter time frame [MA = 10m] can DIFFERENTIATE what specs are

doing versus the ebb & flow from the bigger boys who dominate the regular

futures … directly below, from Friday, gold with 1) the vegas code for

support / resistance, 2) TEMA [white line, period 13] & EMA

[aqua line, period 7, H/L2], and 3) volume figures [LIME UP VOLUME, RED

DOWN VOLUME] with 10 period MA of volume [orange line].

Lime volume spikes ABOVE THE ORANGE MA LINE after runups in price almost

always signal a short term top … lime volume spikes above the orange MA line

after a decline in price are bullish, but you need confirmation from a TEMA / EMA

crossover … Red volume spikes ABOVE THE ORANGE MA LINE after declines in

price almost always signal a short term bottom …  red volume spikes above the

orange MA line after a runup in price are bearish, but you need confirmation from

a TEMA / EMA crossunder … there aren’t any “arb scalps” for gold, but for either

scalping from the long side or day trading, this is the kind of information you

need for good trades.

Same things apply to crypto … directly below, algo and volume IN SUCCESSION

for ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT, & MATICUSDT … here, the difference is “bigly & yuge”

from MT4 markets cuz the volume surges usually come from the Spec community

of traders [who I shouldn’t have to tell you are almost always wrong!].

The volume stats will help identify “arb scalps” at bottoms when you get a

“bigly & yuge” red spike in volume that’s clearly above the orange MA line.

Another market where I’ve identified “arb scalps” is on the MT4 in the NDX100

… at IQCENT, their NDX100 CFD trades between -16 to + 10 index points from the

bid/offer at Coinexx [normal difference is around -7 to -3 index points] … Coinexx

has a very tight “quoted” spread of 0.8 index points [not that you’re ever going

to get that, cuz slippage they’ve built into the quote can be anything from 1 to 5+

index points … yea, they’re that big of thieves and scumbags, but I’ve known that

for a long time in their “Stock Bellies” CFDS … the advantage here is that the

leverage for trading the NDX100 at IQCENT is 500:1 for margin purposes

… enough rope for anybody to hang themselves!

Directly below, the 20 Day & NY SESSION Range MA & MEDIAN values for the

upcoming week for selected markets.

Onto the week! … “Giddy up GOLD!” … OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright

I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!!

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

P.S.

The MT4 volume for charts stinks … over in “Download Links” is

“volumeMA.mq4”, which you can download and install into your MT4 … it’s

much better and allows for a volume MA … in the “Colors” section, RED is

first, followed by LIME, and then ORANGE on the bottom for the MA … enjoy!

PROPAGANDA ON STEROIDS

 

“And here I am, spreading truth over propaganda every single trading day!!”

The 3-ring shitshow circus of central bank lies & propaganda, followed by math

whiz kids who can’t find a job in the private sector so they show up in

government, comes to an end today [for now] with the biggest propaganda pile

of horseshit known to mankind, in the form of NFP Idiocy … yes, the Dept. of

Unicorns & Fairy Tales has worked so hard this month to come up with more

new lies heaped upon old lies, just to keep the fantasy alive that the U.S.

economic picture has a pulse … where that pulse is, nobody really knows, cuz if

it wasn’t for part time jobs at Applebee’s & Chili’s waiting tables or serving

drinks, what would you think reality would look like?

Right now, if things are so good as Creepy Uncle “Taliban Joe” reminds us, how

come the Banana Republic is running $2 TRILLION DOLLAR DEFICITS? … when

the depression comes, as it surely will, what happens with $5 TRILLION DOLLAR

DEFICITS? … Grandma Yellen’s treasury dept., has already admitted that in

2 years WITH ROSY FORECASTS, INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL DEBT WILL HIT

$2 TRILLION DOLLARS ANNUALLY! … that’s what “they admit to” … imagine

what the real numbers will be if the rosy forecasts are in “error”? … and how the

fuck does that ever get paid off without hyperinflation, somebody in Libtard

Nation enlighten me? … and in the midst of this, the ChiComs are flooding their

system with printed Yuan, and the idiots over at the BOJ are about to lose total

control over the world’s largest pile of stinking debt, with YEN DEBT IN THE

QUADRILLIONS, all at super low interest rates that are now creeping higher! 

And since I’m your “truth detector”, here’s some advice … “GOLD / SILVER /

CRYPTO [BITCOIN] is your financial salvation in coming weeks / months / years,

and you need to get your wealth OUT OF THE BANANA REPUBLIC ASAP, before

they either outright confiscate it, or tax it to death, and leave you financially

ruined cuz you have one more penny than somebody else … that they will do it,

there’s no doubt, it’s only a matter of “WHEN”, NOT “IF”! … there is no way out

of the “death spiral” the Banana Republic is in, only hyperinflation or

confiscating your wealth … and they won’t give you any warning when it

happens … remember, “it’s better to be 10 years too early, than 1 day too late!”

… if you’re late, you’re screwed!

Well now, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … misses all around to the downside

for the data, and it’s clear that rate hikes from the FED Lounge Lizards are

O.V.E.R.! … question is, with fiscal policy of the Banana Republic a first class

train wreck, and Treasury borrowing headed to the stratosphere, can rates go

lower and dollar FX pairs go higher? … we’ll see, but it sure looks like

uncertainty is likely to prevail for the foreseeable future.

Upon “Homer Simpson” reflection and “deep thoughts”, it’s pretty clear I made a

mistake … yes I know, hard to believe and all that, but the data doesn’t lie … quite

frankly, all of the crosses are “not so great” places to either scalp or day trade,

you’re better off simply trading the dollar pairs … it used to be certainly before

the 2008 financial crisis, and then placed in permanent stone on one of Moses’s

tablets after the great EURCHF debacle on January 15, 2015, that central banks

sang their own song on monetary policy … immediately following 1/15/2015 that

changed, and outside of the nutjobs at the BOJ, every other central bank in the

world started singing from the same hymnal … EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM!

… as a result, VIX collapsed, ranges dwindled, and the nature and scope of FX

trading changed forever … one of the biggest changes came about in the non

dollar crosses, where before 1/15/2023 4 out of 5 days saw both numerator and

denominator most likely go in opposite directions … now however, IT’S THE

EXACT OPPOSITE! … 4 out of 5 days sees a pair like GBPUSD be equal to or

exceed the range of any of the Cable crosses … and this leads cross traders

into a very big problem.

And that problem is simply this … what was once before, ain’t any more, and to

make matters worse, unless you recognize the switch scumbag bank LP’s are

gonna feast upon you as if your account was a free buffet! … 1) you got a higher

spread in the cross versus the dollar pair, yet 80% of the time you don’t get any

reward for that extra vig you pay … and 2) on average 4 days of the week sees

pathetic range in the cross, which leads to ever tighter scalps or trades in terms

of PIPS, and then when it explodes and surpasses the dollar pair, traders are

extremely hesitant to chase it cuz they know they’re pissing into the wind that

sees them not at a probability advantage … you end up cutting trades short in

order to make a buck, and then aren’t there when it explodes! … how on earth

does this help anybody?

Today a perfect example of this, where GBPUSD [Cable] has an approximate 200

PIP range [so far], and GBPAUD is sitting there with a 67 PIP range … WTF IS

THIS!? … well, both Cable & Aussie are moving together higher, and whatever

range in the cross comes about cuz the denominator influences the cross more

than the numerator … the other day, it was just the opposite, where AUDUSD

went up and Cable didn’t do Mr. Jack “Diddly” Squat … how many traders got to

capture that full ride on the trade pony? … my guess is “Hoover Dam” few!

On the surface, it would appear that EURUSD has the advantage over Cable, but

in watching both over time, IMHO EURUSD gaps more in price from bid to

another bid, even though the spread is slightly lower by a few tenths of a PIP,

than Cable … don’t get me wrong here, Cable has its moments, but on the whole

I think EURUSD is a somewhat rougher trade, especially when it gets moving

some … but even when it sits, the gap pricing is still there … DIRECTLY BELOW,

3 screenshots of GBPUSD from today in succession, the first from 14:00 server

time to 16:30 server time, the second from the NYSE open [16:30 server time] to

the London Fix [19:00 server time], and the third from 19:00 server time to 21:30

server time … the first chart has RM=1, RM=2, & RM=4 due to the fact that the

NFP comes at 15:30 and there was severe panic gap pricing upon release … the

other 2 charts I’ve left off RM=4 … from normal trading movements, unless there

are economic reports or “blah blah, yada yada” from central bank Apparatchiks,

99.9% of the time you won’t see any movement above RM=2 in any

significant way.

click on ANY chart to enlarge

Looking at these 3 charts, notice that I’ve changed the ZERO LAG STOCHASTIC

OSCILLATOR [ZLSO] overbought and oversold levels [yellow lines] to 100 & 110

on the upside, and 0 & -10 on the downside … this oscillator can go past 100 and

go under 0, and these levels reflect better overbought or oversold conditions

… this will be reflected in the manual as well … and looking at the day, how

much better can the algorithm be at calling the turns? … granted, Cable is putting

in an overextended range based on its 20 Day daily & NY session Range MA, by

a factor close to 100% … so this is kind of an outlier, but it gives a good look at

what happens when SHTF and market sentiment abruptly changes form 5 - 6

weeks of dollar buying and attempting to get Cable under 1.21 - 1.20 and failing,

and then catching everybody and their pet rabbit with short positions and

watching the carnage as that melts away “el quicko mucho” … the vast majority

of days won’t see RM levels get above RM=2 [up or down], and most of the time

RM=1 nails support and resistance to the barn door! … and as you can probably

guess, I’ll be back in Cable come Sunday night for Monday’s trade for the PAMM.

No trades for the PAMM today, I wasted too much time post NFP looking for

decent long trades in EURAUD … and outside of the first move from the

downside at RM=3, and the subsequent small rally, there wasn’t

Mr. Jack “Diddly” Squat for movement in the crosses across the board

[excluding YEN, which I want nothing to do with] … in retrospect, I’ve known

for a good long time that the dollar pairs offered advantages, but I thought

[wrongly] with a much faster algorithm in place we could get as many trades

… NOPE! … I’ll also be adjusting my trading times, and be at the ready just

after the European open … given the uncertainty of the FED now, war

everywhere, and fiscal irresponsibility a given, ranges should stay elevated

from where they are now and maybe expand some … in any event, it doesn’t

really matter cuz the algo uses “zero lag” with both HULL & EMA in the

computer code to give us the fastest change in order flow you can get … and

you’ll notice, that when the “zero lag MA” [ZLMA] period 96 is steel blue

[up slope], and the 9 & 19 ZLMAs are plum & aqua respectively, the market

rallies with few and far between red m1’s … sometimes 1 m1, maybe 2 m1’s

usually small in scope … and at the turn, the algo is very, very fast in warning

you to get out and liquidate, and come back later … flip it around and when

the ZLMA period 96 is pink, it’s mostly red m1’s down, and the exact opposite

occurs … this is not by accident, but rather it reflects scumbag bank LP

activity and how they fade order flow and screw specs … that’s why I say,

“the algorithm as presently constructed, makes the scumbag bank LP WORK

FOR YOU … let the “Hoover Dam” bank take it higher!, you don’t stand a

chance when you’re against them! … let them do the work … it repeats

endlessly, hour after hour, day after day, the same process at work to

separate specs from their money … don’t be one of ‘em!!”

Over at IQCENT, good scalping via EURUSD today, with a very robust 132 PIP

range … who do we have to kill to get this every day!? … “The Syndicate” UP

APPROXIMATELY 0.3% on very light volumes cuz I absolutely hate / detest/

stinkin’ NFP Friday’s with a passion … rarely does anything good come out of

any NFP Friday, but I have to admit this one was pretty good … next week sees

volumes go up, now that this shitshow circus of data & Apparatchiks is over

for now … I’ll have more on Cable via Sunday’s blog update, and I’m aiming for

a next Sunday release of the latest version of the scalping algorithm … it will be

more comprehensive in scope than prior versions with plenty of examples of

how I handle trades under varying circumstances … stay tuned!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas