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Tuesday, August 22, 2017

THE TUNNEL METHOD ANATOMY LESSON

“I looked up “Liquidity Provider” in the Dictionary!”

I think it’s a good day to do an anatomy class on “The Tunnel Method”; specifically, what is it we’re looking for, I can sum it up visually with 2 charts directly below in USDJPY. First, the short side, and then the long side.



Granted, these are near perfect examples, and in real trading they don’t have to be nearly as perfect as depicted above; the slopes could be a little flatter, or the moves not as strong … but generally speaking, something along the lines of what you see above. I ask the question in the charts, and the answers are pretty simple; “not very long”, maybe on the order of 1 minute to maybe 3 – 4 to be ideal. Cuz if the market stays in the tunnel [or slightly above/below it] too long, 1) it works off the momentum in the market we want to take advantage of and capture for profit, and 2) it allows time to catch up to the market; neither would be helping us in either position.

Turning to today’s market … of course, when the stock indices “get in trouble” look for the rumor mill in Washington to come to the rescue; you think this mornings announced “tax plan” on the open was coincidental or accidental? Sure. Cuz if there’s one thing you can always count in  from indices markets, it’s that the Pols and the faculty lounge Twits who control the CNTRL-P machine, will always have the backs of the TBTF banks and trading firms. So, take the usual suspects of Vampire Squid & assorted other scumbag LP’s, dealers, and extremely influential hedge funds who were buying stocks during the recent decline, and within 30 seconds start the rocket move up on panic short covering aimed solely at allowing the friendly folks at Squid to sell them back to you … for a profit of course. WTF.

And of course, through all of this massive stock panic to the upside, you think USDJPY can do anything? Market was at 109.28 early last night … it was at 28 around midnight … it was at 28 early this morning … it’s at 35 right now as I write, and hasn’t had a 30 PIP range in 16 hours … all the while, the algorithm can’t get out of the way to a market that has no idea what it wants to do … except get you to buy the high and sell the low cuz it’s not reacting today with the stock indices or anything else.

In essence, today has seen a miniature “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] in USDJPY, and while price is going back and forth between 109.28-ish to about the mid to upper 108.45-ish area [oh, it just peaked its head above 109.50 … got squished from there], the algorithm lines are flat with almost no tunnel to be seen, and price has been over/under the tunnel dozens of times today. The algorithm by design, at its most optimal use [trades initiated back through the tunnel boundary during a corrective phase], really does an excellent job of defeating the FWD … not entirely, nothing can do that … but very good most of the time. Remember, as long as white is above aqua, you can be long, and as long as white is under aqua you can be short; there isn’t any rule or directive that says you can’t add to a position, make a new one, or wait to liquidate on a spike up or even at the pre-defined “profit areas” … all the algorithm says is that its “optimal & best use” for maximum profit is defined through the 2 examples I gave at the outset.

Late afternoon, and I’m calling the markets bluff … fish or cut bait. The SP500 is up massively, over 25 index points, and USDJY can’t hurdle 109.500 and stay there, let alone take out the high. One trade to see if the market can go higher; and while it did momentarily, it forced me out when it came back .., I had no choice but to liquidate to protect the position from loss. The proposed “tax plan” from Repubs has got the SP500 on fire to the upside … maybe the main reason USDJPY isn’t buying it, is that they know that anything Congressional Repubs have planned on doing, is almost 100% guaranteed to get screwed up and disappoint, given their track record … they’re a bunch of wimps and the other markets know it. This is the main reason I haven’t attempted to buy Dow30 today … I don’t trust the gain, and the market hasn’t backed off since the open. We’ll see what happens, but if you’re counting on Congressional Repubs to “bring home the bacon”, I hope you’re not hungry.

I mean, how high does the SP500 short squeeze have to go to get USDJPY higher? First we’re in the 40’s, then the low 50’s, and so far the high at 2456-ish, and USDJPY can’t move higher … sellers stacked all the way up … and then get the SP500 to back off with a ½ index point downtick, and USDJPY slides 6 PIPS … 37 minutes to get it up, and 3 to bring it down … this is what happens when everybody who is long suddenly realizes it’s not gonna go through the high at 54 and hits the exit gate all at the same time.

An algorithm buy signal, here starting the last hour of trading, but 1) where’s it gonna go on the upside given we haven’t really moved the entire day, and 2) where’s it gonna go to give me profit? … Yea, I dunno either, cuz to me right now, being long looks and feels like a real battle to get it higher, with stacked sellers all the way up.

Here late in the day, they finally take out the stops (mission accomplished!) … big whoop … now it’s right back down to 53 … whatever, a terrible trading day today, a new meaning for the word “slow”; no range, FWD in full effect from European open; vicious spikes to clean out stops on both sides multiple times today, and volume was very thin and lackluster. Tomorrow is another day of opportunity. Onward & Upward!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Time for the beach … dog and I are outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Monday, August 21, 2017

SLOPES MATTER

“Yes it is … and the STEEPER the better!”

Nothing like steep slopes to keep things interesting … and I don’t mean skiing either. Yesterday I released “The Tunnel Method”, and if there’s one thing we want to see, each and every day, it’s a set of steep slopes on our 2 key indicators that signify trend. What I don’t want to see are “flat” or zero slope indicators, cuz that simply means “chop” and the market ain’t goin’ nowhere.

That doesn’t mean it can’t break out at any moment, but again it isn’t a question of “will it?”, it’s a question of how many losing chop trades do I have to eat before that … and that nobody can answer. Cuz it doesn’t do us much good to lose 5 in a row of 4 PIPS each and then make 20 PIPS on a breakout trade … all we’ve done is break even before RT commissions, and I’m already doing that by sitting out!

To avoid “chop” you must keep a close eye on the 2 slopes of the EMA’S, cuz a telltale signature of chop is for the EMA’s to go flat, anywhere from 5 to 10 minutes before the market moves into and/or out of the “tunnel” … and if you trade off of that signal, just be aware you’re looking at a 50/50 coin flip for profit/loss. The dirty little secret is simple: the flatter the slopes, the less probability of success in the trade. What’s really happening when the 2 EMA’S 1) stay very, very close to each other, and 2) “flip flop” back and forth over and under each other, is a stalemate on the HR1 & HR4, where some very large forces [read money] are drawing “lines in the sand” for direction in the market going forward. When one of the sides clearly thinks they were wrong, they’ll panic and the winning side will help them … that’s what’s really happening.

Turning to today’s markets … 4th day in a row USDJPY lower, and since we are all SP500 traders, no matter what we trade, can traders get the SP500 under 2420 today is the $64,000 question … cuz if they can, USDJPY could fall out of bed … if not, who knows, but at some point I would expect a vicious short covering rally to unfold, maybe either mid-afternoon or into Asia tonight.

Well that escalated quickly in stocks didn’t it? … and no, they tried multiple times to do it, and while it looks like the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] showed up just in time [SP500 low of 2420.7] to “jack it up”, the question now becomes, what of USDJPY? The “Tunnel Method” algorithm had some very close sell signals this morning; first one the 121 White Line EMA was flat, the second one simply just missed the “tunnel” by a hair, the third one was flat, and while the fourth one was a legit short signal, I didn’t take it for a couple of reasons.

First reason is, I don’t think with the SP500 8 full index points off its low, the market has much room on the downside, if any, to see additional sell pressure … USDJPY tried 5 times to break 108.60 and couldn’t do it with a cavalcade of lower lows in the SP500 … now a full 8 index points higher on a screaming rally, where’s the sell pressure in USDJPY going to come from when the entire trade has been short all morning? Simply put, I don’t think it can.

The second reason is non-algorithmic but USDJPY related from a logistical angle; USDJPY is NOT a pair that simply lets people follow the trend with no worries. A look at the daily candlestick should convince you, this pair is a new bull/bear market terror every damn day; there simply is no safe trade in this puppy. Having said that, we really haven’t broken down from Friday very much, and it’s the 4th day in a row of lower price; is the trade long or short, and where are the surprise spikes going to come from and go to? … well, I’d have to say the long side, catching the trade yet again too short for their own good. I’ve seen this TV show before … get everybody short, then blitz the hell out of it some 20-30+ PIPS on some mystery spike up [rumor related or not], set off buy stops, and basically rape the trade just like the PPT does in the SP500 & Dow30 … thanks, I don’t want in this.

So, the question isn’t one of “it’s not a good signal”, cuz it was entirely legit; the question is, where’s it gonna go? Cuz, all I see is attempts to go lower that can’t, and it does me no good to be up 4 PIPS, for example, and then have the trade blow up with a 20 PIP up spike cuz somebody got their big girl panties wadded up in a knot, and went berserk covering shorts.

And guess what, I was right, although, there were a few PIPS to be had [not much] if I had taken the trade. One other thing: when a market is trending, and then comes back to the “tunnel”, you only got so many “knocks on the door” before the last one turns and slams the door in your face. Meaning, the first through maybe third times are usually good, but you get to 4 or 5, they usually will stall. The trade I skipped was the 4th attempt … as I said, where’s it gonna go if it can’t bust 108.60?

And now of course, about 12:30 in New York, [and by the way about 2 hours until the solar eclipse passes through here in the Caribbean … from where I’m at, about 85%-90% of the sun will get blocked out for about an hour … this should be fun!] and USDJPY sneaking up to the 109.000 area … is another reversal day in store? How about the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] for the umpteenth time these last weeks? Is it even possible anymore to get any market to 1) open, 2) go in a trend somewhere, 3) correct some, and then 4) continue the trend into the end of the day without all the bullshit of the FWD, major reversals, or even double reversals? I’m beginning to wonder.

Here in mid-afternoon [T-30 minutes to the eclipse! … I’ve never seen one, so I’m hyped!], the trend on the 183 & 123 EMA’S have changed for the 4th time since I opened my screen just after the European open on the M1, and we get another sell signal around the 108.840 area; again, where does it go lower if the SP500 isn’t moving down?  Well, we got the answer … about 7 PIPS before stalling and now ripping higher into the 90’s. A good signal, but late in the day not one I want to take.

Ok, solar eclipse time! With any luck, I’ll get a decent pic from my phone … be back shortly! Well, that’s something I don’t think I’ll ever forget … truly awesome. Phone pics are iffy from what I can see, but I’ll know more when I get back home and put them on the computer.

As I figured, the last signal went nowhere as well … market is simply chopping around; however, this market is due for a rally … maybe it comes off President Trump’s Afghanistan speech tonight to the nation during the Asian session … I’ll be watching, cuz any blimp up that sets stocks going higher and USDJPY will follow. We’ll see.

This was a rotten trading day from the Europe open to the New York close; tight range, a semi FWD, and of course the obligatory spikes. Two algorithm signals that I passed on cuz I didn’t like the setup; in any event, not much on the profit side even if I caught them, although something is better than nothing. Still, I’m not at all thrilled with selling a market that is in its 4th day down, especially one as erratic as USDJPY. So, hopefully tomorrow [or tonight which is tomorrow for USDJPY] the market moves better and we capture an algo signal and move in the market. Onward & Upward!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Dog is with the babysitter [yea, I know, don’t go there … the wife insists] … time to get home and relax … until tomorrow mi amigos!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

UPDATE:  The solar eclipse from the Caribbean; we had about 85% of the sun covered. From the pic you can see the solar flares off the sun, and in the middle of the sun, the light shaded circle is the moon. It was awesome to behold!



OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Sunday, August 20, 2017

SPECIAL SUNDAY UPDATE: THE TUNNEL METHOD

“Skippy discovers trading via ‘The Tunnel Method’; girlfriend totally approves!”

What can I say, other than “what’s old is new”! For those just tuning in, within the last week, I’ve been re-introduced to my original “The Tunnel Method” for HR1 trading that I created and published somewhere within a couple of years around 2003 … I can’t remember to be honest when exactly it was, except to say I remember doing it.

To make a long story short, a colleague of mine that I’ve known professionally since around the turn of the century, sent me an email last week with work that he has done using my “old” method, with some modifications. He made the point of saying, “if it ain’t broke, why fix it”? After some intense work, and some modifications of my own, specifically in regard to some of Gann’s theories with the ‘Square of Nine’, I took an old copy of “The Tunnel Method” for the HR1 that I had kept on one of my backup thumb-drives, and starting with a “top down” approach of first looking at the theoretical and logic approach I wanted to take, then using the ‘Square of Nine’ software available online at bonniehill.net [which wasn’t available back then] to figure out what theoretical parameters I wanted to use on an M1, I modified the computer code and came up with a new mq4 file for M1 use.

I used USDJPY, initially, since it’s the main proxy for stock indices trading; from a theoretical standpoint everything fell into place, and should work Ok, but until you run it and see, you never really know if it has any validity as a trading algorithm. If it doesn’t work well, you have to ask “what went wrong” with my theoretical framework, and what’s the right path going forward and start over. However, knowing this and preparing myself that it wasn’t going to be of much use, what I found truly shocked me it was so good.

So, the bottom line is this: I’m re-introducing “The Tunnel Method” as a trading algorithm, and the “VEGAS TUNNEL METHOD” PDF manual is available for download over in the “Download Links” section in the right-hand column. Along with the manual, there are 3 MQ4 files available for download depending on which market you want “The Tunnel Method” available on your MT4 platform; download any or all you wish. For our stock proxies USDJPY [primary] & EURJPY [secondary] the MQ4 file you want is “VEGAS TUNNEL METHOD FX.mq4; for the Dow30, the MQ4 file you want is “VEGAS TUNNEL METHOD DOW30.mq4; and finally, for the DAX30, the MQ4 file you want is “VEGAS TUNNEL METHOD DAX30”. The MQ4 files are for download only, and can’t be viewed because they are executable files.

If you are new to the process of downloading trading algorithms into the MT4 trading platform, and don’t know how, or are afraid you’ll screw it up, don’t worry cuz in the PDF manual I take you step-by-step from start to finish. In other words, it’s “Grandma & kid tested”!, 100% guaranteed easy to do following the instructions I give you. So, even if you’re a complete “Newbie” … relax, take a deep breath or something … I got you covered!

And simply because I know I’m gonna get asked this via 10,000 emails if I don’t, the “VEGAS TUNNEL METHOD FX.mq4 file will work perfectly fine on any brokerage house MT4 platform that has ANY FX PAIRS with either 5 decimal or 3 decimal FX pairs; so it’s not specific to the Turnkey Forex MT4 platform. The Dax30 and Dow30 MQ4 files will only work under the following conditions if you’re on an MT4 platform other than Turnkey Forex; the Dow30 must be whole integer with no decimal pricing, and the DAX30 will only work properly on an MT4 platform that has 1 decimal pricing. All of this, though, leads me to the obvious question, “if you’re not trading with Turnkey, why have you made a conscious decision to give money away via higher spreads and/or round turn commissions? Hell, let’s make this personal … give it to me instead and I’ll send a Christmas card every year; what’s the LP bank gonna send you”?

Bottom line in all of this: I like the 1) simplicity, ease of use, and implementation of the “Tunnel Method” algorithm, 2) as I explain in the manual, I only have one thing to worry about and not a group of things to worry about, and 3) liquidations, exhaustions, and pre-calculated profit levels are calculated into the algorithm, so you really don’t have to figure out anything … everything is visual, so just follow it and click the buttons when you are supposed to.

I’m going to leave the “Kumo Cloud” algorithm up on the website, for the simple reason it’s good and some people will want to use it. I’m renaming it “Kumo Cloud Algorithm Manual” over in the “Download Links” section. For newer readers, there aren’t any MQ4 files to download for this algorithm, everything is available in the manual to get you started.

However, I can’t deny the power of what I did 15 years ago, and with modifications, how good it is with buy/sell entry and reward/risk profiles; and believe me, it absolutely excels in both these areas. It’s so good in both, I’m switching PAMM trading to “The Tunnel Method” immediately.

I want everybody to realize that nothing of what I do in terms of research, trading algorithms, and/or anything that I share and publish to the public at large is about “me”; everything is about finding the best way to trade and make consistent money without getting “whacked”. To that end, if that’s not why you trade, then why the hell are you here? It’s all that matters to me. As I explain in the manual, I had my reasons in leaving the algorithm years ago, assumptions that I initially made that turned out to be false. Well, no higher power or authority emailed me to tell me of the mistake [duh!], so how would I know? What’s happened, is that over time I’ve come full circle back to almost where I started, only with more math, more complexity, and problems more complex than ever; knowing that markets are “fractal” in nature and form, it didn’t take me but a few minutes to realize “simpler is better” for a host of reasons, not the least of which is the signals are superior. So, it doesn’t matter to me if I have been working on something for 5 minutes or 5 years … if it’s better, then it’s better, so why use anything else?

In any event, I think a lot of you will like the algorithm; I lay out the philosophy and logic, relying heavily on Gann’s cycle work, and how it influences the 2 key parameters used by the algorithm, and I also configured it so that it can be used in multiple time frames as well … all within the confines of a single algorithm. You have the option of creating multiple charts, or simply a couple clicks of the mouse to a new time period, with that time periods algorithm configuration. The flexibility of being able to do this, I know, many of you will enjoy.

So, everything is over in the “Download Links” section for download … have at it, and if you have any questions/comments, please email me at traderzoogold@gmail.com and I’ll get back to you ASAP.

And yes, the PAMM spreadsheet is ready to go, and what I have decided to do is start anew from August 21, 2017 using strictly “The Tunnel Method”. My reasons for doing this are simple; 1) I’m not going to switch algorithms in the future; I’m simply going to use “The Tunnel Method” going forward, either in the DAX30, Dow30, or our primary stock index proxy USDJPY [secondarily EURJPY if USDJPY intraday volatility goes too low]. I’ve been trading markets a very long time, and quite frankly the algorithm’s ease of use, reward/risk profile, and killer entry signals, I don’t think can be improved upon no matter how complex you want to make the algorithm, or how many Ph.D.’s in math you want to employ; at the same time, our risks come 99% of the time from “chop” that can be identified and avoided [see manual], 2) I want people to see the power of the algorithm as “stand alone”, and not mixed with previous algorithms or their versions, and 3) since April, when I went to the “stock indices” format, we’re down about 2% to date; when the PAMM gets profitable, I’ll reconfigure the spreadsheet and keep a running total of cumulative returns. In this way, without having to do a bunch of simple math, people can see quickly how the algorithm is doing as time goes by.

And while it isn’t exactly the same as the algorithm I had on the floor, cuz there are some parameter differences, it’s reasonably close; the markets, though, are just as volatile, trading costs CHEAPER NOW THAN ON THE FLOOR [which honestly, I still have a hard time envisioning], trading hours expanded greatly, and opportunity better than “back-in-the-day”. Granted, we are at the mercy of the frickin’ scumbag LP bank now, that hands out shit fills like it’s candy on Halloween, but in the futures market life can be just as rough. My point is this: I had documented CFTC results from a Big 8 accounting firm with audited results “in real time” as they were happening over a 3 year period … every single day … at the end of 3 years, the fund was up 1400% … Now, I’m not representing I’m gonna do that … maybe I do better, maybe much worse, I dunno cuz it greatly depends on the markets themselves … do I really need to mention past results don’t guarantee future results? No, my point here is not to brag or make somebody think I’m a “guru” or something; what I want is the record to be clear for everybody to see going forward; and the easiest way to do that is start over … right now, starting tomorrow August 21, 2017, and then keeping and maintaining a running total cumulative return for people to see. So, tomorrow’s blogpost will have the starting balance in the fund as of this weekend, and then the day’s activity, with a running total of results.

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Friday, August 18, 2017

ERASE ALL HISTORY; IT UPSETS SNOWFLAKES

“Liberal logic easily explained!”

The country has hit ABSOLUTE peak idiocy; “yes, by all means, ban all history that’s “uncomfortable”, burn books you don’t like and think people shouldn’t read, only allow credentialed elite liberals with the right indoctrination and pedigree to speak, use violence to curb speech you don’t like cuz you disagree with it; make all women wear Cankles “Captain Kangaroo” dress coat and fat pants and/or Mao jackets, only allow the most egregious hypocrites on the planet to mandate social behavior via their utter immorality and debauchery, and by all means ban Christianity cuz Christians mostly have morals while you don’t, and you don’t like that cuz it makes your secular humanism seem wrong”.

In a sane world, you would simply laugh out loud, and demand psychiatric evaluations of “nut jobs” like Nancy Pelosi, who said yesterday with a straight face that all Confederate statues in the Capitol should be removed at once cuz they’re “offensive” … “maybe somebody should remind Ms. Dingbat, that just a couple of short years ago she was “Speaker of the House” and didn’t do a damn thing to eliminate said statues that are sooooooooooooo offensive; why not? And where were the “Congressional Black “milk-the-taxpayer-for-free-money” Caucasians? How come they never complained, or hit the nearest TV camera to explain their pain … hmmmm”? Of course, we all know the answer and it’s simply SJW bullshit … if it weren’t for double standards, liberals wouldn’t have any.

And through all of this planned charade by Libtard Nation, what do we learn? Well, we learn that the guy who organized the march by the Neo-Nazi’s was an Obama supporter and organizer … surprise! … and we learn the girl next door who got arrested for admitting she helped pull down the statue, is a committed communist supporter of Kim Jong Un, a member of the WWP [World Workers Party] that actively promotes the destruction of the U.S. by any means, and is a staunch socialist and anti-capitalist; and you thought this was spontaneous? … surprise! …. And we also learn that no matter what you say or do, condemning the violence and everything else that went on, liberals and the MSM will constantly and forever continue to “shift the goalposts” to a new “outrage dujour” starting with the next news cycle. Nothing is ever enough, and when it is, they simply erase all memory and move on. EXIT QUESTION: “But … but … what about Russia? Oh, that’s so yesterday. And the real crime by Trump in all of this bullshit? It’s calling out ANTIFA as a domestic terrorist organization and the thugs in it … the Left’s newest social darlings, with all the morality of Robespierre of French Revolution fame, who upon closer inspection, was himself guillotined he was such a louse … oh, the horror to be publicly outed”!

Cuz they think [Libtard Nation, that is], that they have all of the superior “moral authority”; they always do, and that makes everything Ok in their book. You can beat innocent people up, stop free speech, burn & loot others private property, all because the end justifies the means. And the most sickening thing in all of this to me? The spineless Republicans who run for cover and shake at the altar of liberals; and that would be the usual band of suspects from the House & Senate, but mostly the publicity hounds in the Senate like Graham, McCain, Corker, Flake, and some other douche bags as well. While I am sickened by the sheer ignorance and stupidity of the Left and Democrats in general, I detest RINO’s for their utter hypocrisy and levels of deceit [repeal ObamaCare anyone?].

Last night, I got an email from an old client/reader from way back, and I haven’t heard from him in a while, but he sent me an interesting email that I read, re-read, and went through all of the charts he attached. Basically, cutting to the chase, he’s telling me that after dissecting the “Kumo Cloud”, and comparing it with my first published algorithm called “Tunnel Trading”, that it’s basically the same thing”! And he wraps it all up by telling me, “welcome to back to the future”!

Now, 1) I’m a lot more proficient with computers, MT4, and coding than I was back then, 2) markets 15 years ago had much higher spreads and trading conditions that were terrible in terms of “net” cost, and 3) for the most part, “pits” still ruled the world. However, he showed me my data that I used back then, modified it to use it in the M1 time period, and then used ‘Square of Nine’ profit points in the trade that coincide with Fibonacci numbers; if you look at the rules I’ve got today, entries/exits would be very close, but that my original work stills stands as better! And he had a spreadsheet to prove it! And while he enjoys and likes my work and research, he still claims “ain’t nothin’ better” than what you gave me 15 years ago!

Well, what can I say … stayed up late last night anyway to see if stocks tanked [they didn’t … yawn], and while watching USDJPY & SP500 out of the corner of my eye, took a good look at what he sent me. So, over the weekend, I’m gonna reintroduce all of you to my original “Tunnel Trading Method” on Sunday night, for viewing online and/or download in PDF. 15 years ago for example, USDJPY had the low, low spread of 4 full PIPS, EURUSD was 4 PIPS, & GBPUSD was 5 full PIPS; you simply had to trade over longer time periods to defeat the spread, so I originally developed and modified it for use with the HR1 [one hour] candlestick. We don’t need to do that any longer, cuz of course we now have the lowest “net” cost in the Biz at about 0.004 PIPS for a round turn trade via Turnkey.

I can tell you, there are some subtle differences and there are similarities; some will like the “Kumo Cloud” better, and some will gravitate to “The Tunnel Method”. The “Cloud” & the “Tunnel” act basically as the same thing, but in the “Tunnel Method”, there are bands for taking profits as the market rallies or drops … it’s super easy to follow, and it got so popular back on Forex Factory back then, it had over 200,000 followers before I had to scale back answering questions about it cuz I was getting hundreds of emails a day; I simply had to stop going there cuz people would get mad at me for not spending my entire day and night answering questions. So, what I’ll be doing is modifying it for the M1 for use in USDJPY & EURJPY, although it can be used in any FX pair with either 5 digit or 3 digit pricing, and it will be available Sunday night sometime.

Turning to today’s trading … we’re all SP500 traders today … overnight action very light and choppy after a quick selloff of USDJPY on the European open that saw the pair go to the 109 area for a test and a run of some sell stops … mission accomplished, and now time to chop and wait and see if the other “shoe” can drop and take the selloff lower still at or near the open in New York. Doesn’t look like it, as no doubt the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] is out in full force today [like last Friday] to make sure the weekend papers aren’t filled with sell panic.

But, as I have said before, a rally at the open is the worst thing that can happen to this stuff, meaning that every professional trader in the world knows the selling isn’t over until you get capitulation on the open or during the early part of the trading day. And on que, right before the European close on a Friday, here comes political news that blows the living hell out of every short position for the last 8 hours, and fills stops at God knows where, and leaves some very ugly marks on traders who got caught.

I started the European day wondering when this was going to happen, but we got a 30 PIP slide right at the opening European bell; even after some lousy rally attempts, the tone was negative and traders were out for blood … only blood that got spilt was their own; not only was there no sell signal to go on, but the move down was a struggle like yesterday. At what point, does the tsunami of dealer buying wipe some shorts away … well, didn’t have long to wait for that “well placed” Bannon rumor to hit the market … gosh, what a coincidence it comes right as Europe closes … probably nothing [WTF].

But as usually is the case, the problem here for traders is logistics … there simply is no way you can safeguard this kind of action we are seeing on a regular basis … yes, I passed on some short trades earlier cuz I didn’t want to get caught in this nightmare of getting filled on a buy order in a mini melt up … there simply isn’t enough volatility to make this kind of “hit” back anytime soon. There isn’t anything “normal” about trading anymore … these spikes come out of nowhere and catch either long or shorts over extended, and the stops get run and filled at the extreme. And now, after yesterday’s very rare double reversal, today we get a reversal from almost 100 PIPS … and you wonder why I’m cautious about putting on large numbers with stops? Pluhleeze! This is nuts, is what it is; and of course, as you’d expect, once the high of the day is taken out at 55, it’s a straight drop of 15+ PIPS before you can say, “Wha”? Simply put, “mission accomplished” from whoever it was with more money than I’ll ever see, shoving USDJPY into buy stops to take the other side, and not only cover longs but get short, which is more than likely the reason for the stop hunt. What’s next now for today, new lows?

And now the market finds itself hostage to not only the SP500, but politics as well … before, you couldn’t get an uptick to save your life; a little bottoming action, a change in short term momentum, and BAM!! … oh, so sorry, you short? … what looked like gold now turns into bat guano in less than a second, and you can attribute it all to “The Golden Rule”; he who has the gold makes the rules … now, you can’t get a down tick to save your life. This is why lately, aside from the slippage we’ve experienced the last 2 days which pisses me off greatly, I’ve been extremely careful about trades, especially with any kind of size that can see sizeable losses … you simply have to realize who’s long, who’s short, and when do the stops get set off to get the dealers out … just when you think you got the trade of a lifetime on, it changes in less than a second on news … sometimes bullshit news [like today] … and you think the rumor was coincidental to the European close? Ha, what a joke … well placed, well timed, and pre-planned in advance to catch shorts off guard and make them pay. Thanks, come again!

Here in early afternoon, it’s tough to tell if the market “used up” all the buying power for the day, or whether there is anything left … the problem is compounded cuz it’s Friday, and people need to adjust positions for the weekend, and if stocks start to slide again, who the hell knows what happens next. You certainly can’t just sit there and say, “oh well, it’ll come back”!, and then it doesn’t. And if you happened to get caught in that clusterfark, there isn’t any way to get the PIPS back … not a chance in hell … lose 40+ PIPS in a second on multiple lots, and it’s a B.I. Itch making it back … yea, there’s a reason I’m wary of this stuff lately, cuz it isn’t acting “normal”; all we get are FWD’s, massive reversals with huge spikes from hell, and yesterday’s double reversal, which I hope is not a precursor of things to come. Start injecting Pols into this, along with rumors, and it’s a volatile mix of wampum explosives ready to be set off. It would certainly help, if markets could regain some semblance of normal activity, but it’s something you have to deal with if you want to keep trading for a living.

Late afternoon, and as I thought highly likely earlier, the SP500 doesn’t have enough “buy power” off the Bannon rumor to keep it higher … certainly, it’s nice to see stock indices have higher volatility, and that keeps things interesting in USDJPY [our stock indices proxy], but does every damn day have to be a FWD or some combination of crazy reversals on vicious spikes? All told, only one trade today, a profitable small gain … a very small range to start the day, things picked up around 90 minutes before the NY open … I assumed today would see stock indices “take the lead” in terms of trading, and didn’t think it was likely USDJPY would see much of a range and/or trading opportunity unless stocks suddenly got slaughtered starting in Asia … that didn’t happen, so nothing to do until New York stocks were set to open … that said, USDJPY shaved 30 PIPS out of the box, and it was rather dead until the New York open … early action had me very nervous to be short, and the reason was the price action in the market; the snap back retracements up were a hell of a lot faster than the drops down, with only the spikes down providing any comfort if you were short, and of these, pretty much all of them came back in a 3 steps down, 2 up fashion … unless stocks were going to go “Thelma & Louise” on a break of 2420 to the downside, I thought all along both markets were getting “set up” … I’m not some kind of hero looking to pick a bottom, so I waited until conditions improved and also wanted an algorithm signal before I got long … I did get that, and the market immediately went up for us … when it started to come back quickly, I liquidated, figuring there are more of these if we can just not see stocks get creamed any more today. We were coming up off a correction down, and I’m debating whether to get long, wondering what the Europeans were gonna do with about 10 minutes to their close; would they be buying or selling USDJPY and/or the SP500? And BOOM!, the Bannon news, and we take off like a rocket straight up catching shorts in a complete “death liquidity trap”; if you have to buy into this, you want to talk about slippage? Anyway, one trade … cuz after that both the stock market and USDJPY had pretty much used up all the oxygen necessary to lift prices even higher … now, all that’s left is trouble. Of course, it’s better than losing money, and no slippage today from the scumbag LP, so that’s helpful, but the chance for a good gain out the door with the Bannon rumor cuz we weren’t long at that point; still, would have liked to make more in profit, but when the “setup” for any trade [until the one I took] is rotten, you just have to wait. So, I’ll take the small gain and be back on Monday.

We got about an hour to the close, and if you look at a chart, once the panic spent itself with a new high [which was a stop hunt for sure, nothing more], it’s been nothing but down, to where we simply sit doing nothing … the market can’t even manage a 3 PIP rally, and now the pressure is on down to the most recent break in the 109.200 area, and nobody knows just how low it can go if stocks decide to break again. First the shorts get crucified, now it’s time for the longs to suffer … all of these markets have been a B. I. Itch to hang onto anything longer than a few minutes, with changes in sentiment and direction fast and extremely wicked, and today is no different.

I had planned on getting the PAMM spreadsheet back up today, but I spent all my time last night looking over my friend’s email with “The Tunnel Method” results and charts he sent me … I’ll post it Sunday night when I upload “The Tunnel Method” into the “Download Links” section of the website.

Beach time! … the dog and I are outta here … until Sunday night.

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Thursday, August 17, 2017

A COUNTRY FILLED WITH ROBESPIERRES

“America 2017 … A country filled with intolerant Leftists!”

I’ve about had it with the Left in the U.S., where everybody is Hitler, everybody who disagrees with them is a racist, homophobe, sexist bigot; where everybody is “offended” by shit you would have laughed out loud at 2 years ago. Well, time to add me to the list, cuz I’M OFFENDED & I DEMAND SOMEBODY DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT!

So, here are my list of grievances: 1) I want all office buildings, roads, schools, post offices, and everything else in West Virginia that’s got ex-Senator Robert Byrd’s name on it PURGED from public view; after all, he was a KKK “Kleagle” back in the day, and as racist as they come … oh, and he was a DEMOCRAT Leftist morons, 2) I demand that the Left’s darling, one Franklin Delano Roosevelt [FDR] be purged from the history books as a racist as well; he interned Japanese Americans in WWII, and appointed Hugo Black [KKK member] to the Supreme Court … how F-ing racist is this?, 3) a guy, a serial rapist who forced himself onto a White House intern and was unfortunately President, who made racist jokes with Ted Kennedy about your beloved “The One”, and whose wife said young black men were “predators” … I want them banned from all cable TV shows as sexist and racist, 4) I want Planned Parenthood banned from the U.S., not only because they KILL BABIES AND SELL THEIR BODY PARTS like a NAPA store sells auto parts, but also because the founder of Planned Parenthood, one Margaret Sanger, founded Planned Parenthood to kill off blacks in urban, poor neighborhoods. She wanted to eradicate blacks Libtards, and if that doesn’t make her racist Planned Parenthood a societal outcast, what the hell does?, 5) every Stalinist Libtard that demands I live my life like a fruitcake needs to STFU or get a knuckle sandwich if you even think about getting in my face, cuz I grow weary of your utter bullshit lies and faux outrage over Confederate statues that have been standing for, in many cases, over a hundred years and you didn’t utter diddly squat … not even for a second, about your hurt feelz, when Obama was in the WH … so, STFU and go away already, and finally 6) I demand the editors of the Washington Post be arrested and prosecuted for “inciting violence & riots” [a federal crime] for their editorial today calling for their ANTIFA nutjobs to “start throwing rocks” … do you need any more proof than this regarding the Totalitarian Left, that has come completely unglued over losing an election, and is trying to destroy the country? Frankly, anybody that reads this “rag” should have their head examined.

Turning to today’s markets … seriously, today’s trading in everything is a clusterfark mess; “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD], double reversals with wide ranges [this happens maybe 2 – 3 times in 5 years], ECB minutes, Trump rumors … wrap it all up and it’s a big pile of trouble … risk 15 PIPS to scratch or make a PIP, or worse. The highs made in USDJPY today, almost criminal … the lows should put people in jail, but won’t … the wicked spikes up and down for 20 – 30 PIPS in seconds, just wiped a whole lot of people out of the game. And, it wasn’t confined to simply USDJPY; EURJPY had a 40 – 50 PIP waterfall in seconds on the ECB minutes, only to rally back strongly … at the time the market above the “Kumo Cloud”, and in 1 second it’s 40 lower, so God help you if you had a sell stop in anywhere [guaranteed fill at the bottom … “you know, cuz the HAL9000 is so honest and everything”!]

Today’s trading was a frickin’ nightmare in USDJPY; even before the ECB minutes, prices erratically moving higher to make new highs, and then the ECB minutes jacking USDJPY about 40 PIPS in a second, where it promptly fell out of bed and went straight down [after they filled the buy stops of course] … then came the Trump rumors and the SP500 & Dow30 went into a nosedive, losing over 100+ points in the Dow30, and not recovering in price … it didn’t take long for USDJPY to go put in a double reversal low, with the obligatory snap back 1 M1 spike of 30+ PIPS to the upside to wipe out an hour of downside price erosion; all the while, price moving so fast you have no idea where the market is … all you could really discern, was that it was somewhere inside a 10 PIP window, and that no matter what you did, buy or sell, you were going to be handed a shit fill from hell.

Remember yesterday when out of the $400 bucks I lost about $300 of it was from slippage; well, today I’m happy to report slippage only cost us $200 on the $200 I lost. I’m sure it could have been far worse than it was, cuz I didn’t sell on any slide or buy on any rally … nope just everything ½ to 1.2 PIPS away from where I thought it should have been on every single order; “and yes HAL, we got  frickin’ problem”! I could bitch to the LP & Turnkey, but they aren’t going to do anything about it; they’re gonna say it was a wild day with news and political rumors, and that all the fills were fair, whatever that means. To keep things in context, though, I’m trading 3 times the level of past trades, so get used to hundreds losing and thousands winning … it’s what I’m trying to do, while at the same time keep risk under control.

Every day is like an experiment in terror, with the FWD, and now a double reversal showing up with a decent range … this doesn’t happen often, and in fact is quite rare in USDJPY [or any of the other Dollars pairs], about 2-3 times per 5 years … and now we get one today, and the FWD is everywhere as well. And while equity was again down today, like yesterday, it isn’t the algorithm’s fault or my execution, but rather the market is dysfunctional … and it was a whole hell of a lot less dysfunctional than EURJPY, or even EURUSD, where if we had been trading EURJPY [and been long] we could have taken a 5% hit instead of $200 in slippage.

I don’t have an answer as to why the markets have all of a sudden fallen in love with the FWD, or why a double reversal sprang out of today’s action; I simply don’t know, other than to say I’ve been commenting lately on the disturbing pattern of frequent FWD days in everything and how they kill accounts; if you’re not extremely careful, they can leave a real sting.

The other disturbing pattern emerging, and really manifesting itself in the DAX30 first, is very large spikes up & down, that come out of nowhere and once the damage is done, they retrace quickly and viciously … today, USDJPY certainly saw its share, and the purpose of these spikes is to run stops … pure and simple, the “Golden Rule” in effect, and if they got the money and the information, they will do it in a heartbeat; problem is, you don’t have any idea where they can or will stop … will it be 20 PIPS or 40? How about 50 or 60? You think you know, but you don’t.

In some respects, I feel like a guy trying to navigate a sailboat out in the ocean through a CAT 5 hurricane, taking on some water, but the boat is still afloat and the damage minimal; these markets are as treacherous as I’ve ever seen markets … turning on a proverbial dime and leaving traders in the dust … nobody has time to digest information, you can only react. I’m not one to make excuses; since we went to the stock indices format in April, we’re down about 2% after today, and a lot of that 2% is yesterday and today combined via slippage; not exactly heart pumping, but not a disaster by any means either… as I said, I’ve increased volumes by threefold, so losses more than likely will be in the hundreds, and when the algorithm nails it, and we can get away from the FWD, hopefully gains will be in the thousands.

Here at the end of the day, the stock market is getting “monkey hammered” … the SP500 over 30+ index points off its highs and trading near its low; USDJPY reluctantly going lower, but it’s a heavy grind, as there are buyers stacked everywhere … all it takes is for the SP500 to go up a point, point and a half, and the USDJPY shorts panic, sending it up 10+ PIPS in seconds. 20 points ago higher in the SP500 I pondered getting short USDJPY here in the afternoon; we’re only about 15 PIPS lower from that level, not exactly a ringing endorsement for being short. If I had been buying the Dow30 today, instead of trading USDJPY as an SP500 proxy, it would have been ugly … very ugly … instead, losing $200 to slippage from the thieving, scumbag LP seems very light in comparison. In essence, this is another example of one of my best trading days of all time in terms of avoiding disaster. No, I’m not happy being down $200, and it pisses me greatly that the LP feels the need to screw everybody [not just us], but on the other hand it isn’t something that will take weeks to make back either. One of the big problems markets are experiencing, is that even when I’m up in a trade, it turns so quickly and evaporates everything that you had in the trade in literally a fraction of a second; now, you got about 1 millisecond to make a decision as to whether or not to get out.

So, tomorrow will be interesting to say the least … will Asia crater stocks overnight? … will the SP500 & Dow30 start tomorrow’s trade down “bigly”? … and will USDJPY sell off if they do? Looking at the way the algorithm tracks the market, I’m very pleased with the results … I wish I could say the same about market conditions getting in and out and the way the LP fills orders … unfortunately, they need to improve greatly. Onward & Upward!

I’ve got some issues with the PAMM spreadsheet that need to be addressed … nothing for individual accounts, just some new headers and formatting … I’m looking to get it finished tonight, so look for the spreadsheet tomorrow.

Beach time! … the dog and I are outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

ARE WE ALL JUST HOSTAGES?

“For maximum relief, slowly but firmly bang head against window!”

Is it just me, or has the whole world descended into insanity? While I sit last night, and ponder the various manipulations of markets, politics, and society in general, I read and watch video of supposed grown adults kicking, spitting and shouting at a statute of Robert E. Lee that was pulled down by the peace loving group ANTIFA. “Umm, guys, you do realize it’s a frickin’ piece of metal right? … right? It’s been standing there for how many decades? And you just now “discovered” it and are moved to violence cuz your feelz are hurt? Ok, I see … were you blind for 8 years when President Empty Suit was in office?” And I find myself held hostage by “useful idiots” of the Left … spontaneous demonstrations my ass … another George Soros, B. Hussein O., & Cankles production financed and money laundered through various organizations with the sole purpose of destroying not only Trump [who they detest & hate more than anything Kim Jung Un could say or actually do], but the institutions and democracy of the country.

To Libtard Nation, and the entire tin foil hat crowd that makes up modern day Democrats, all that matters is rage, hate, victimhood, race, identity politics, and the need for vengeance … especially against the dumb ass “hicks" between the coasts who simply can’t or wouldn’t see the virtues of the anointed candidate who’s turn it was to be President. It’s an insult to intelligence is what it is … and for those misdeeds, the country simply needs to be destroyed. Let’s face it, we’re all hostages to the antics of these paid Loons, and my only wish is that they all get prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. EXIT QUESTION: “Why isn’t George Soros in prison”?

Turning to today’s markets … FED minutes at 2 PM today, most likely keeping this under wraps; then all hell breaks loose as usual. That doesn’t mean the usual stops hunts and other various manipulations aren’t going on … oh hell yes … it’s that time of year when European politicians and various other EU Apparatchiks take off for vacation, and you know, they more than likely need a little scratch in the kitty for mistress expenses; cuz Candy has needs don’tchaknow! Well, today’s “trial balloon” from the ECB, that Super Mario wouldn’t be laying out new policy directives at the Jackson Hole Summit next week sent the EURUSD reeling quickly. Who says Apparatchiks don’t learn quickly? After Kim Jung Un’s plunder of U.S. markets via long gold & short SP500 before the words flew, all you got to do Skippy is tell Candy to be short EURUSD at a certain time, and when it goes down, click the “close position” button … wait ‘till tomorrow and get the funds shipped out to wherever … go shopping and get all the toys you need for out little trip next week! Who says life has to be complicated? Cuz, as we all know [or should], in FX the only rule is that there aren’t any rules.

Meanwhile, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, it’s “vapors” time once again in the U.S. stock indices … of course we open 70 higher from overnight, stocks vaulting higher quickly in the first half hour of the European open, and then going sleepy time; thank you SNB, you’re doing God’s work. So, it’s the same old, same old in the Dow30 & SP500, which now haven’t moved to let us know they are alive in about 8 hours. As for the DAX30 … pluhleeze! … I just ate breakfast!

It’s midday already, and markets everywhere absolutely dead in the water; bigger waves in a bathtub with nobody in it. For its part USDJPY not doing anything; thirty-ish PIP range very low. Markets across the board waiting for the FED minutes at 2 PM; which if I think about it should be a non-event … it’s the minutes of what they did, not a policy statement; that’s already been issued, so I don’t know what it is the Street is looking for to move anything, although the words “inflation expectations” and “balance sheet reduction” are memes the “talking heads” will scrutinize with a microscope, like an Anasazi witch doctor reading the clouds to see what day is a good day to die in battle. All-in-all, they more than likely are about the same.

Again today, markets everywhere a mess … “Flying Wedge of Death” seemingly a permanent fixture now in markets thanks to the ever present central banker manipulation; the moves are quick, violent … and then they die and go sleepy time … rinse, repeat ‘til the next time, and you get the drift.

Ok, FED minutes out … round up the usual suspects … straight freight train move, thank you … place your bets and then hope … cuz, once the train starts it doesn’t let anybody on until the end, and then of course it’s too late. And so, in USDJPY, no algorithm signals cuz it’s straight down to the bottom with a down signal that began approximately 45 minutes earlier … welcome to the new normal. What utter bullshit, cuz lately every market is mirroring roulette.

One redeeming side to USDJPY over other markets, is its seeming ability to create its own bull or bear market every day; simply put, every day is a new experiment in terror, where anything and everything is possible, and no high or low is out of reach, and if you let this thing get away from you by thinking it can’t possibly “go there”, it will go there and kill you. It creates fantastic trading opportunities, but you have to wait for the algorithm signals, and if you don’t get them you simply come back later.

One trade today, very early in the day … a buy signal off a “Kumo Cloud” break to the upside … it went literally nowhere, and about 10 minutes later I scratched with the tiniest of PIPS profit, cuz market conditions were slowing down already and the M1’s were getting smaller and smaller. As it was, it was a good decision, cuz until the 2 PM FED minutes came out, nothing really happened … and then it’s the runaway freight train off the cliff to the bottom of the ravine. Speed of light … crickets; what else is new? Now, with about an hour to the New York close, USDJPY finally gives an algorithm buy signal … too little too late, cuz not enough time left ‘till the close; I’m simply going to pick up trading in Asia tonight to see if there is any follow through. I will say this, though, my fills in USDJPY were right on the money today, with zero slippage … please, keep up the good work LP.

PAMM spreadsheet will be back tomorrow; got some changes to make first tonight.

Beach time! … the dog and I are outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

YES HAL, WE GOT A PROBLEM!

“Me, talking to the HAL9000 computer system at the LP.”

I’m gonna skip my usual routine of talking about something on my mind in the news, and go right to today’s trading … maybe my name was on all the bullets they use from the alien gallery to decide who wins, loses, and why … to make a long story short, I lost a little less than 1%, and about 75% of that came via slippage from the scumbag LP. Simply put, I couldn’t have gotten worse fills if I sent the orders in via carrier pigeon to a CME broker.

So, I actually got to have a nice chat with a service representative at the LP bank, and I didn’t hold back one damn bit … it felt good, but you know the drill … “Our HAL 9000 computer system checked itself and everything is fine … all the fills were good”. Yes, very good for you, bagging my orders and stuffing them in your account. I talked with more than one person, and of course nothing is going to change … hell will freeze over first before they adjust or admit anything.

For its part, the algorithm worked well, the market didn’t … after the retail sales news broke, and all hell broke loose, bids/offers were all over the place and slippage was 3 – 5 PIPS if you were lucky … we weren’t. Add it all up over 4 trades [1 winner and 3 losers that shouldn’t have been], and out of the approximate $400 I lost, I’m estimating about $300 of that was via phantom shit fills that had no business being handed out. And of course, this is the same old “same shit, different day” routine you get from these guys who are simply thieves. And they want me to take comfort in the fact I’m not the only one complaining today, which gives me the chance to reply, “Gee, I wonder why … you’re so honest and all of that … why would anybody complain”?

Well, this brings back nightmare trading conditions to the fore once again, and no matter how good you are, no matter how good your algorithm is, it isn’t going to help you when they set out to screw you on fills via slippage … and boy, was that day today. Of course, this wouldn’t be necessary if the damn stock indices were allowed to trade … but of course, the manipulators can’t have any of that … the only time stock indices trade is when they are allowed to trade cuz the manipulators find out from their criminal TBTF bank buds that there are sell orders on the books to be filled, and they back out of the way for a while. Once that’s over with, it’s biz as usual, and they go right back to sleep doing nothing.

After talking with some people at the LP bank, and doing some thinking today, I’m going to add back USDJPY into the mix as a “stock proxy”. Make no mistake, the stock indices DO NOT reflect reality, they are manipulated so much … given the trading conditions, the only way you can actually trade them is to hold them overnight and hope they move. USDJPY is the premier FX asset class when it comes to “risk on / risk off”, and I thought EURJPY was on a “par” with USDJPY; well no, it isn’t. So, I’ll be adding USDJPY as my first proxy choice to trade [EURJPY SECOND] because it has tighter spreads, deeper liquidity, and I’m assured I will be happy with the LP bank conditions … yea, well we will see won’t we?

From an algorithmic standpoint, the correlation with the SP500 is good, and the trading signals given via the algorithm are excellent, so I’m going to take the LP banks advice and trade USDJPY as the stock proxy of choice going forward.

There are just some days, when I wish this business didn’t exist … today is one of them. I was there, I had the right signals, I was on the right side of the market, and we should have been profitable … we weren’t, thank you very much LP bank. It boils my blood and frosts my cupcake, but there isn’t anything to be done about it … it is what it is … simply move on and tackle USDJPY tomorrow absent anything in the stock indices. I would trade the DAX30, but again today, the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] making yet another appearance, for like the umpteenth time in as many days … new highs, new lows, gaps, spikes up, spikes down … panic one way, then panic the other … since the big traders left the SP500 & Dow30 and started playing here, this market has been utterly untradeable.

As many readers/clients know, in the past I have traded USDJPY and sung its praises … the problem with USDJPY is when it slows down, but it’s simply something I have to deal with cuz we are left with no proxy alternatives; if it goes dead, then it can join the Dow30 & SP500, and we are in the same boat anyway, so what’s the difference? A dead USDJPY is different how from the Dow30 that has a 2 point spread and sits in a ± 7 point range for 3 hours? And, it still has slippage! So for me, it’s 1) ease of trade, 2) “net” trading costs, and 3) does it move? Well, USDJPY certainly stacks up better than any of the stock indices at the moment, all the while reflecting their overall trend.

More importantly, since USDJPY is a “risk on / risk off” U.S. stock indices proxy, the version 4 algorithm works extremely well with the pair, without the headaches and slippage in EURJPY. We give up some in terms of potential daily “range”, but we get back more I believe in terms of almost no slippage [remember, I’m assured I won’t see any starting tomorrow … OK, show me.], and less “sloppy” trading action.

Markets and LP’s, together, are throwing everything including the kitchen sink at us … you name it, it’s getting hurled at us daily … panic up, panic down … the FWD and its doji candlesticks … speed of light moves & then crickets … slippage on everything … and of course, completely dead markets except when they wake up and panic. The version 4 algorithm can handle the market part, but isn’t responsible for the scumbag LP … that’s an unfortunate wildcard we get to deal with daily. However, even with today’s “paper cut”, if going back to USDJPY is going to save us money in the future, I’m happy to pay the tuition now and get it behind us. I know it’s a pain in the donkey to get clipped by these assclowns, but I [we] persevere and move on to tomorrow where opportunity awaits us. So, Onward & Upward!

I’ve got a trade discrepancy in the master account getting figured out from Turnkey; should be fixed by tomorrow morning. I’ll have the PAMM spreadsheet with tomorrow’s blog post.

Beach time! … the dog and I are outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Monday, August 14, 2017

WELCOME TO AMERICAN ENTROPY!

“Would it be the same people who show up in Charlottesville, VA.?”

Well, no expectations of trouble here, right? Seriously stupid people on the fringe right and ultra tin-foil hat fringe left go at it while the country sits back and watches. Natch, no matter what happens Libtard Nation screams their faux outrage that it’s all Trump’s fault; “Gee, I never thought of that … thanks for the retarded insight … Note to the idiots on the Left: If you want more Trump, this is how you get more Trump, and they wonder why they lose elections”!

Meanwhile, we all wait for WWIII and the end of the world via a nuclear exchange with the Norks that nobody knows how it will end. I’m wondering this morning if Kim has covered his SP500 shorts and/or liquidated his gold longs? Might want to let the money clear first in Switzerland and give the Chi-Coms & the Ruskies their cut before you go spending all that western cash on hookers & blow.

Of course, what would the start to a week be without the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] showing up in Asia and ramping stocks higher on … natch, worse than terrible economic stats out of China, cuz nothing says buy MOAR STOCKS like data that shows the world is in a depression … cuz remember, it’s all about “fun-dur-mentals”. So here we are at the start of a Monday and the Dow30 is up about 50 points on “vapors”, simply cuz they can, and they don’t want anybody to think anything is wrong anywhere about anything … simply STFU and buy MOAR!

As for the DAX30, one look at the M1, and it looks like somebody exploded a grenade inside a spaghetti factory; up/down, gaps, spikes up, spikes down, price everywhere and anywhere, the “Kumo Cloud” left hopelessly wondering what the hell is going on. Well, I’ll tell you; big money that has left the stop hunting grounds of the Dow30 & SP500 [cuz the manipulators won’t let them play anymore] to plunder the German market while the regulators drink beer and watch porn on the office computers. In a nutshell, that’s what’s going on, and if you play in this market, you either lose big or win small, all the while handed shit fills via LP slippage as the bank computer [HAL1000] says, “Dave? Dave? We don’t have a problem do we Dave”?

Turning to today’s markets … EURJPY has now retraced its tight range and is now under the 50% mark on the day’s range; this is worth watching, as the U.S. indices really haven’t moved much, especially the Dow30, but the SP500 is down about a point from a few hours ago [big whoop]. Nonetheless, it seems like the entire world is waiting for another “shoe to drop”, whether its stock indices heading lower via the top floor roof, or the Norks situation deteriorating rapidly into actual missiles. While there are corporate flows that keep EURJPY trading up/down in random fashion, nobody really wants to take a position, or has any confidence in one, when at any second things can go “entropy” quickly.

About an hour after the New York open, and stocks in full PPT mode; the story, though, is the break of EURJPY, with both EURUSD weakness & USDJPY weakness [Yen strengthens]. Those of you that have read the new version 4 algorithm can see the 34 minute Cardinal Cross down move from high to low, that started right after stocks opened. Again today, everything putting in either “Flying Wedges of Death” [FWD] or reversal patterns, and making life difficult for practically everybody.

Noon time in New York, and its “biz as usual” for stocks; meaning simply, they have no range and do absolutely nothing the entire day but drift up ever so slightly on manipulated bids or simply sit… pathetic, but what do you expect after the break last week? Did you somehow think they were just going to go away and leave matters to traders? They’re here forever from now on … learn it, love it, deal with it.

What does it say about EURJPY when the Sunday session that is all of 3 hours long, has almost the same range as the next entire 24 hours [so far]? Another reversal, as we start the day off in Europe attempting to expand the day’s range on the upside, but quickly after about 90 minutes, going into the slow “3 steps down, 2 steps up” grind down to new lows some 6 hours later. And while it isn’t part of the algorithm, the 50% rule I often use saved the day for me, simply because I only want to take algorithm long signals when the market is above the 50% price mark, and vice versa for short positions. Today’s low range in EURJPY complicated things, as literally a couple of PIPS at times is the difference in being long or short … 50/50 on random orders isn’t something I want to get involved in … if that is what trading is about, I’ll go to a casino and get comped playing baccarat or something like it.

Of course, once the sell stops have been cleaned out by restless longs, the market goes up and stays there cuz there wasn’t any real selling to begin with, only traders stuck long at higher levels and being forced out by the dealers and hedge funds that can see the order flow and take advantage of it with their size. In other words, it was a plain old “stop hunt”, once successfully completed, it’s now back to the middle where we can waste away the day doing nothing but waiting for tomorrow.

As I said in the manual, when the “Kumo Cloud” is 1) very thin with no size, and 2) the “Cloud” is sloping straight across and is basically zero, meaning no up or down but simply sideways, you have to be really very careful with trades where price is hanging around whatever “Cloud” there is, simply because random orders can take it a PIP or two any which way and it doesn’t mean anything, but it very well could initiate a buy or sell signal. It doesn’t mean up, and it doesn’t mean down; it was simply a trap for the unwary and “entropy” in all its glory.

Which brings me to the $64,000 question I know many will ask; “ok -vegas, I understand what you are sayin’, but which “Cloud” breakouts are legit and which aren’t”? I can’t answer that, cuz it’s all probability waves at work … nothing more, nothing less. I can only say that when the “Cloud” is thin and going sideways, I will most likely stay away cuz what it’s telling me is that around a PIP or two it’s basically a 50/50 bet, and that’s not good enough for me. Sometimes you win and sometimes you will lose, but you’ll need a breakout that goes somewhere to make up for all the ones you take that are small losers when these 2 conditions are present; you’ll win 1 and lose 5, but more likely than not it’s the 5 losers that come up first, and then the question becomes how willing are you to make the 6th trade? Cuz if you’re going to trade under these 2 conditions, you MUST TAKE THEM ALL!

Where the version 4 algorithm really shines, though, is under adverse trading conditions like small ranges, doji’s, reversals, and the account killer FWD. When everybody and their brother finds out that trading can bring riches, they rush out and will believe anything they find at the bookstore; what they don’t realize is that everything, no matter how stupid, has to work sometime! If it didn’t, you could filter it out and never have a loser, which of course probability theory says is impossible. Problem is, systems/models/algorithms limitations will show up a lot sooner than people realize, thus exposing the weakness of whatever it is they are using to trade … not knowing what to do, the account gets “monkey hammered”. What happened?

What happened is that the system/model/algorithm was being traded under conditions where it had no chance of success because its user did not understand its limitations or conditions, under where it would fail with a greater than 50% fail rate; so, where in the book was the warning? [Yea, right] I can produce total BS, sell it for $99.95, and at some point it will work … and when it does work some month, I can then run infomercials with Grandma’s full of cash in their hands gushing about my system … and when you look at the last 20 years, that’s what you get in many different, yet hilarious forms.

I will be the first to admit, since February 2016 when the FED quietly, and without fanfare took over markets, trading has been a B. I. Itch to make money in and prosper like before. Nobody sends you an email telling you of the change in the rules; trading in the secondary markets like gold, oil, and other FX crosses, the first to feel the brunt of the “new FED rules” for trading. Then slowly, everybody realized the VIX in stocks was getting the life sucked out of it, and wondered why stocks were not reacting to world events, or economic news, all the while daily ranges were collapsing dramatically; nobody wanted to believe the FED, ECB, & BOJ [with some help from the SNB] were manipulating markets … some money managers couldn’t come to grips with the fact. Remember, the “oil king”, Andy Hall … Mr. Perma Bull, multi billion dollar oil trader no more … it hurts when you’re the last one to get the memo and have to shut down your operations.

As I have written before, 2017 is the worst year in the biz for money managers since 1987, whether stocks or commodities doesn’t matter … they’re getting killed; many down 30%+ or more, too late to realize the game has changed dramatically, and how the hell do you make it back? Now, I don’t pretend to be the “smartest guy in the room” … far from it. But when things in trading don’t work, and they’ve been working for years, you have to wake up and smell the coffee pretty damn quick and ask “why not”? The market is very good at letting you know what your weaknesses are, if you’re willing to listen … and I can tell you, I listen more than you know. Nobody comes to trading and is a “perfect trader” … sorry, that person doesn’t exist; we become good because we listen to what its saying to us and we adapt.

Back in my floor trading days, I never, ever envisioned trading like it is today, and especially how acquiescent Wall Street is having the FED manipulate everything. But, here we are, and when faced with problems, you either find the solution or you lose money. That has led my trading algorithm to various versions that fixed one or many problems, but as I have said before, the greatest dangers are the problems you don’t know exist … hell, you don’t even know what questions to ask, let alone have solutions. I simply can’t make the version 4 algorithm more “generalized” than it is for all market conditions we face … it runs the gamut, and when markets like EURJPY trade [or even the Dow30 if it’s ever allowed to trade again … some days I wonder], in its present form, the version 4 algo will 1) keep you on the right side of the market, and 2) make you aware of the short term cycles for tops or bottoms. Of course, it can’t guarantee tops and bottoms … nothing can, only where Gann’s theories on cycles say tops and bottoms “occur here, at this time and place”. Well, that’s good enough for me, cuz it puts me up on a trade while risking little; now I’m in control. The algorithm simply uses Gann’s information and works BACKWARDS in conjunction with my proprietary work in “exhaustions”, and I’m very excited I finally got it released so you know what it is I’m attempting to do.

Today’s trading saw 2 profitable algorithm trades; both were long positions early in the day before the market reversed and went to new lows, while price in EURJPY was above the 50% mark at the time. Both trades directly below.



In both trades, long spikes that went nowhere got me out; this is one of the rules for trading. It doesn’t matter what I think; if I see a large spike up, I’m liquidating on the slightest hint of a turnaround if I’m long. I’ve seen this rodeo before, and waiting for the turn costs you plenty.

On the daily candlestick, if the market closed now after 18 hours, it would be another “doji” … and sure enough, we open, go higher into Europe, go to new lows for the day as the U.S. session opens, and once that’s over with, it’s the slow climb back into the middle, thank you very much FWD. Gets you long up top, short near the bottom, and then traps you into the close for more losses; that’s what the FWD does, and I avoid it like it was the financial ebola virus.

Today’s trade disappointing in many respects, not the least of which is range, but the simple truth is the market caught too many people long EURJPY in Europe, and when higher stocks didn’t produce buying at the U.S. open, the liquidate sell buttons started to get pushed and it was a race to the bottom … all told, it took 34 minutes of the 18 hours, and as I write it’s back into the middle like a good little FWD should. The only real sell signal coming after 4 produced nothing but scratches … the 5th came and took off and never looked back … since then, it’s been a crawl up, hitting off buy stops of those short earlier in the day.
For their part, the stock indices today a complete waste … “vapors” overnight, open higher, “protect & defend” what you stole overnight, rinse and repeat … how many times have we seen this the last 3 -4 months? New York simply a disaster trading arena … what’s the point of it even being open? Somebody please give me one, cuz from where I’m sittin’ I’ll simply quote Art Cashin of UBS, who once said, “today is a waste of a clean shirt and a tank of gas”.

Trading today not as profitable as I would have liked to see it, even with increased volume cuz conditions are excellent at Turnkey, but it is for all practical purposes a “doji” day on the daily candlestick with small tails on either end; this remains the “form of my [our] destruction”, as there isn’t anything else that has a lower probability of occurring day-to-day. So, on days like today, I have to be content to walk out the door with anything to the plus side cuz it’s a “doji” day. Still, I’m happy with how the algorithm performed on its first day available to the public … I hope you can see its power, its logic, how it keeps you out of trouble and on the right side, and how both Gann’s cycle theory utilizing the “Square of Nine”, along with my “exhaustion work [not needed today] comes together to produce consistent profits. If anybody has any questions/comments, please pass them along to me at traderzoogold@gmail.com and I’ll get back with you ASAP. Onward & Upward!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Beach time! … the dog and I are outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!