TORTURE

 

“Trust me kid, I’m a professional …you’re a natural born trader!”

 

Oh boy, more ranges in the teens as I turn my screen on … how many new highs/lows before U.K. unemployment? Does it matter? More importantly, are the spikes we will surely see today reflecting “price discovery”, or merely a snapshot of a “crime scene” set up and executed upon a hapless group of LP customers? [“Stand back ma’am; nothing to see here folks, just a little accident where people got killed … sure, blood everywhere but it’s all better now (for who exactly?), so move along … c’mon, let’s go”!] And, as I expected, nobody cares about U.K. unemployment … has it mattered in the past, does it matter now, will it ever matter?

Now, it’s “hurry up & wait” for the FED mucho hours from now … this way the LP’s can butcher markets more before they spike it somewhere at 2 P.M. EST, and kill some more accounts with another drive by mugging, that more than likely 1) spikes, 2) reverses, & 3) goes nowhere. Seriously, are Central Banks trying to kill every market on the planet? And in the process, enrich the TBTF banks that shovel them money? And so, here we are left to wonder what the clueless Twits at the FED have conjured up to force feed the masses via CNBC & Bloomberg, to insure everybody gets the sanitized & “official” FED line that, “Everything Is F-ing Awesome Baby”!

Well, first 4 hours of the trading day in the books, and checking the ranges, I would tell you how small they are, but you’d more than likely want to have me committed for fibbing, and with all the evidence the dog has collected over the years, I’m not taking any chances; let’s just say they’re “smaller-er-er” than the smaller ones from last week. “What’s next, six decimal trading”? Looks like we just had a small Cable rally, that has taken EURGBP down a tad … another stop hunt, or real cross selling? “Well, that sell stop hunt lasted all of about 7 minutes … can I get you a higher buy liquidation fill sir”? Life goes on, as the equestrian & ballet lessons get funded with customer money.

Of course, the big problem isn’t EURUSD, it’s GBPUSD, which has a certifiable certain predisposition towards price violence … especially when ranges are tight; today sees approximately 57 PIPS, which I don’t think has a prayer of holding … the market already has tried twice to break higher, and once to go lower, with nothing working so far. All I know, is that when it goes, it will be fast and vicious with a culminating horrendous spike that wipes out stops … other than that, who knows, cuz right now it’s going back & forth on eggshells, looking for that wedge opening in order flow, where stops can be run … I don’t think the algorithm is nearly fast enough to either predict it or capture it … that’s why I call it the Cable “shit show-a-rama”; good luck.

And all of this of course means here @ 8:30 EST, that it’s time for the shorts to be crucified on U.S. inflation news …  which they dutifully were, exactly 1 hour and 50 minutes ago at the low of the day the countdown commenced, and with the mighty inflation news [never mind the FED I guess], EURGBP spikes almost 20 PIPS and comes within a handful of PIPS for a new high … “oh joy, who could ever have seen this clusterfark coming”? The market now, almost back to where it started from … only difference is quite a few accounts got “gassed” for the pleasure of being guinea pigs on a FED interest rate decision day. “They come out of nowhere and clean your stop out, thus filling you at the extreme tick, and then disappear just as quickly, leaving you with that feeling you’ve been played”. [Umm yea, that’s what LP’s do.]

Shorts duly blistered, all it took was an hour and fifteen minutes, and now here comes Cable to within striking distance of a new high, and suddenly the longs in EURGBP are hitting the exit gates … “where can you get entertainment like this? It’s gonna be a two-pack Rolaids day! Waiting for it … yup, there it is, although this spike in Cable to a new high is tame compared to what they’ve been doing lately; anyway, longs successfully buried and in the ground [again]”. Well, that little bit of excitement by Cable is now over, so if by chance your short, you know what comes next … why wait for it?

The problem here … today … is one of position squaring; we can’t see the order flow, so it’s next to impossible to gauge when these mini-bursts are coming. Realize, that in the last 2 weeks, outside of 2 4HR periods, EURGBP has been stuck in approximately a 30 PIP range, going back & forth and killing accounts; the 4HR candlestick directly below.

 

And every time we go up a tad, traders get long … and every time we go down a tad, traders get short … when there is little intraday volatility, which I’ve mentioned before, it doesn’t take many trips to the highs and lows to do some real damage to your account … meanwhile, nothing has happened. In the last year, there has only been one other time EURGBP had this tight of range for 2 weeks, and that was in the July 4^th week … from there it got plenty exciting. Bottom line is, this can’t continue for much longer; hopefully, these central bank interest rate meetings that start today and end tomorrow at 7 A.M. EST, will clear things up, and the market can proceed in some kind of move … at this point, who cares which way, just frickin’ move already!

FED news out … big whoop … do something will ya? And just like that, they go for the buy stops, take them out, and immediately go lower … anybody shocked? At the start of the post, I said how many new highs/lows for the day, given the “teens’ range coming into the day, would we end up with … the winner is three; 2 new lows and  new high … oh joy, another “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] that goes nowhere. And here we are, half hour later, right back to where we were before they blew the shorts away with some mystery tick new highs in Cable that got sold instantly. Yea, EURUSD rallied and set off some stops as well … that only prevented a complete collapse in EURGBP, and it didn’t do anything to widen the range except under mysterious circumstances … which I might add is becoming a daily occurrence.

Another day of market bullshit “hurrying up & waiting” for nothing … quite frankly, this is pissing me off we’re getting this kind of action … how many times do we go to 0.88300 [or higher] before this stuff gets clobbered like a baby seal during a whale hunt? Tomorrow sees the BOE & ECB with their central bank interest rate decisions at 7 & 7:45 EST, respectively. I’m not looking for anything here, and it will be interesting to see how the market trades after all this “bat guano” is finished. Right now, with literally no time left in the day, EURGBP is stuck in the mud. Seriously, this shit has got to stop. 

No trades today, for the third day in a row … and the reason is simple; there isn’t anything to do but risk 15 – 20 PIPS to make 1 PIP, before it reverses and goes the other way. The last three days have been atrocious; both highs and lows coming on mystery spikes that are reversed instantly; we haven’t had any decent ranges, cuz they’ve all been tainted with spikes that make the daily candlestick seem normal … it’s been anything but. We’ll see what tomorrow brings; it can’t be any worse than what we’ve already seen this week. If this stuff ever can move again in our lifetime, it’s Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below … until tomorrow mi amigos.

 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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