IT DOESN’T MATTER WHAT A TRADER THINKS

 

“Welcome to my world babe!”

Where do I start? Ok, how about early this A.M. we get hit with 50 MPH winds and a couple inches of rain within 30 minutes … knocking out power, water, phone, you name it and it’s gone for only God knows … phone and internet come back quick enough, but the rest a complete, and typical, Caribbean nightmare. Weather report last night said chance of light showers in early A.M., and then warm and sunny the rest of the day. “Yea, thanks for the advice … now get your donkey over here and clean the mess up your idiotic forecast caused … broken glass, overturned lamps, flooded floors, etc., all cuz you’re like the rest of the morons with Gubermint jobs in the Caribbean who couldn’t count to two without a manual”. Seriously, I’m outta here quicker than people who are close to me think … I’ve had it.

Then there’s EURUSD, where today’s upside action to the 1.19000 area makes you wonder out loud about the Christmas morning “mugging & hold up” down to the 1.15500 area … think somebody knew something? Today’s action is as “herky-jerky” as you’ll ever see it … throw in the scumbag LP’s with their tricks & schemes [although, it hasn’t affected us today … all my fills have been on the market], and take a look at some of the second-by-second action, and it’s clear, somebody is taking a beating on fills.

Of course, there have to be days like this; low volume, “lurch & retrace” quickly type of days, where it’s then “rinse & repeat”. At the end of the day, an M1 chart looks like linguini thrown up against a wall, and whatever sticks is the definitive chart pattern of the day. Tough, tough day to hang on to anything … sure, plenty of algorithm signals; problem is since the day started at 08:00 server time around 1.18700, the range has been small, and more importantly, every move up has been quickly sold off … and when I mean quickly, I mean “bat your eyes” quick and it’s down 3 – 5 PIPS. So, in essence it’s a 5 steps up, fall down the stairs 4, pick your donkey up and stretch out the bruises and try again.

Today is the kind of day that if you’re not careful, reinforces bad habits that can lead to destruction down the road … and I’m particularly thinking about those that hang on to losers; maybe double or triple up; and then today comes along and the market rewards you by quickly going back up to get you out either at breakeven or with a small profit. And what most traders take away from this is the wrong conclusion; which is, “hey, if I just hang on and wait, it’ll come back … better yet, I’ll add more”! And I’m here to tell you, all you are doing is making back some of the money [usually not all] a future “hit job” will cost you … cuz it’s coming, and when it does it will be either very painful or fatal. What this means, of course, is that traders need only “react”, not think … let professors somewhere think … do your thinking away from the market, not during your trading in it. And it goes to the heart of why markets kill most people.

Need proof? Well Ok, today serves some up for you just as I write. How long does it take to wipe away approximately 3 ½  hours of “herky-jerky” upside price action? The M1 directly below answers the question.

“Yea, I’d say about 8 minutes, more or a little less, and anybody doubling, tripling, quadrupling up, now looking for a move back over 1.19000 – 1.19050 to breakeven or maybe make a little, has got a real problem on their hands, with the clock ticking down into the New York afternoon during a Holiday week. Sure, let me know how that works out”. And one more thing; don’t think it’s a “coincidence” the sellers of EURUSD came out of the woodwork at the European close and into the New York afternoon to drive EURUSD below 1.19 … they know exactly what they’re doing. If they sell it earlier, it has a chance of rallying further; selling it now, down hard and fast, into the New York afternoon, who’s gonna step up and bid it back up? Try nobody, and they know it, and that’s why they waited to trap all the bulls from the morning who overstayed their welcome just a tad too long [pun intended]!

A blizzard of trades today, but add it all up and the pennies we gained yesterday almost exactly match the pennies given back today, and so we’re simply back where we started yesterday from … whatever gets started via the algorithm, simply doesn’t last … “a little song, a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants”, thank you Holiday trading … my volumes remain very light simply cuz of the nature of the week we are in; there really isn’t a helluva lot going on anywhere, other than a small drift upward and some stops getting murdered, but stops getting butchered isn’t anything unusual … what’s missing is “flow” … you can see it not being there the way the LP’s treat the bid/offer quote; come next week it will be smoother.

And come next week, when markets enter 2018 and trading returns to normal conditions, look for volumes to rise to the 200,000 – 500,000 level for the PAMM. Extending my time at the screen by a couple of hours, from 08:00 to about 18:00 ± a few minutes either way to see where it dies for the day, we’ll be there when it moves. From my perspective, 2018 is shaping up to be a “triple digit” percentage year; the algorithm is excellent, EURUSD is as good a trading market as there is on the board, there is no shortage of uncertainty either at the FED or ECB, and there isn’t any reason volatility should see a decline … in fact, it should move higher. So, fasten your seat belts. Onward & Upward!!

I’ve got the PAMM spreadsheet up and running, now all I need is about an hour to “fill in the blanks”; today’s post a little shorter than normal, cuz I got some cleanup and repair work to do from the “light showers” this morning, and I want to get it done before darkness descends. I’ll get it up to date tonight, and add tomorrow’s trades and post it with the blog. It’s been one of those days … first one thing, then another, now I get to clean up … oh joy oh fun. “Maybe I’ll ask the Mrs. to help … on second thought, I got a better chance of Santa showing up and offering his services”. In any event, I’m outta here to have “fun” … until tomorrow mi amigos!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!