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Thursday, December 7, 2017


“Sure, c’mon in, the water is just fine … what could possibly go wrong?”

Whoever the traders are that got obliterated with the complete “mystery tick”, 20+ PIP uptick in Cable @ 11:15 server time, and also the approximate 45 PIP blast up in a literal nanosecond @ 12:46, you have my condolences & sympathies. Why you are in this market is beyond me, but anything with GBP in it is subject to robbery at the moment. Of course, the HAL9000 says, “everything is F-ing awesome Baby, and all fills are legit!”, when the whole world knows somebody got scammed right before our eyes.

Of course, this also extends to all the GBP crosses, where no doubt some LP either started the rumor or completely screwed a corporate order to even their order books; nowhere more evident than in EURGBP, where blasts up and then down are the norm until this utter bullshit with May and her Gubermint of misfits figure out how to shoot an arrow straight … so far, it’s “comedy gold”, with the “we’re gonna get it done!” mixed in with “we’re so fucked”, it’s hard to keep score without an official U.K. scorecard … quite frankly, the rules of cricket seem easier to comprehend … what a complete “shit show”, and I’m afraid these assclowns will turn a “binary event” [they got a deal or they don’t], into a “well, maybe, we just need more time [you know, cuz a year and a half and counting isn’t enough apparently] to twist arms and turn everything into a 3-ring circus. How about February 2018 for an answer”? Only an official U.S. Congressional investigation could be more screwed up than this.

One glance at an M1 in anything that has GBP in it, should send you to the ER with a severe case of the “I ain’t touchin’ this shit for anything!”, but sadly, there are those who just can’t take a hint, and then choose to donate to the LP bank … cuz the dirty little secret now is, “no algorithm … nothing … matters to this market but rumors [up] and more rumors [down], and until this “event” is settled, expect more of the same … which to be blunt, is nothing more than a transfer of money from retail specs to LP banks, with some corporate orders getting mutilated and then murdered sandwiched in between … and your stop? … well, if your long at the bottom tick, and if your short, at the top tick … natch! Amazing how that always works out like that isn’t it?

Of course, what fails to make an impression on most traders is the fact that when the “drive by hit job” is over, the market’s got nothin’ left to give or go forward towards … until, that is, the next “drive by hit job” which is a coin flip at the LP FX desk, and depends on who’s stuck at the moment and needs “a little help” … “welcome to the “killing fields” of FX Skippy!”

“Dave? Dave? We don’t have a problem, do we Dave”? Of course not HAL, everything is “peachy-keen”; I’m tryin’ to hang on to my money, and your trying to steal it … everything is perfectly normal. At least back in the good old days of “pits”, you could see who was doing the stealing … cuz after a big fall, all you would see is brokers and their bag men writing and whispering, as the customer sell stop is filled by the broker at the low of the move [according to the board], where the bag men are now long so as to immediately sell these out at the true price and pocket the difference, and then notes are passed between bag man and broker clerks who “keep score” of the haul … cuz come the end of the week, they tally it all up and come Monday the bag men need to bring piles of cash to work so the broker can get his 50% cut. Amazing all the people who came to work on Mondays with brown bags or briefcases; must be their lunch. And while it was an open secret this was going on, nobody ever did anything about it, simply cuz Randolph & Mortimer were getting cuts from the broker share shoved up to them upstairs where the “shiny suits” sit, and since they control all the power … well, you do the math.

But now, it’s simply a blimp on the computer screen, and the money is gone from your account … poof! To the LP, who you don’t even know which one and the brokerage house isn’t going to tell you … why? … what does it matter, you lost? … but don’t worry, along with the appropriate regulators who are diligently watching porn on their office computers as it’s happening, the ever efficient and flawless HAL9000 says, “everything is F-ing awesome Baby! … and oh by the way, the fill is good. Have a nice day and come again … PLEASE!”

“Gee -vegas, tell us how you really feel … don’t sugarcoat it”.

Cuz what you need to understand and fully comprehend, is that all of this “Brexit” deadline bullshit, is exactly the excuse the LP banks are looking for to loot the market in anything GBP … they start the rumors, then pass them on to corporate customers who need orders filled … right after they give the nod to their compatriots in other offices in their worldwide network, so they can piggyback the order … and then it’s simply … BOOM! … oh wait, never mind. But, since the regulators and brokerage houses split the loot with the LP’s, don’t expect any of it to ever change … all you can do is be “awake’ to the conditions that are necessary for them to do this … and right now we are donkey deep in “Brexit” make or break [kinda] negotiations, that everybody in the world says needs to be solved “f-ing now!”. Don’t hold your breath.

So now, since it’s lunchtime in Europe & the U.K., and both longs and shorts have been taken out back and “shot in the head after they got raped first”, and the gigantic pile of moola has been successfully transferred from traders & corporate accounts to the banks … “who’s up for some “The Wolf of Wall Street” party time strippers and Dom Perignon from glass slippers”? … all at your expense of course, if you chose to play today for longer than about 3 seconds. Now time for some afternoon golf and swapping stories from the morning about how XYZ corp. got fleeced on a $2 billion dollar GBP order, that netted the 3 other traders in your foursome about $2 million each cuz they front-runned the order of course. It’s “high fives” all around … what’s not to like? Nameless, faceless FX dealers … “and you thought only socialist government types stole your money and weren’t the least bit ashamed”!

It’s been a little over an hour now, since the last “drive by holdup” from the LP banks, and for what it’s worth, directly below the action in EURGBP.

And what should be immediately noticed and understood, is the fact that everything came to a complete stop after the holdup … “you tellin’ me all this is legit? Ok, then explain the action immediately after the holdup … cuz under normal trading conditions, given this level of a move, there should be some follow-through of some kind up or down from the activity … there isn’t Mr. Jack Squat, and that simply proves my point, which is that it was a pure and simple “drive by hit job” on an order that you and your pals got to front run and make $$$$ off  from the scam; scumbags, top to bottom”.

Of course, we know it isn’t “legit”, and the falloff of trading activity can be directly attributed to the fact that anybody with one functioning brain cell can see what is going on, and simply isn’t gonna play anymore. Why should anybody put up with this shit?

My biggest fear, Pols being asshat Pols, is that they drag this binary event out, thus holding markets hostage by a bunch of people that couldn’t sell ice cream at the beach on a Summer’s day; throw in a substantial amount of corruption to boot, and who knows, maybe they need another year and a half to get their shit together and make a decision. Well, if they do, I can tell you there won’t be 3 people in the world trading anything GBP, cuz after the bullshit shenanigans of yesterday and today, what’s gonna happen to GBP is what’s happened to gold … goodbye traders, goodbye trading volume, goodbye market … simple as that. This shit has got to stop, but my fear is it won’t, cuz there isn’t anybody to stop them.

“Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it”? Apparently, the golf course must be crowded, cuz just a sec ago @ 14:55 server time, it’s time for another “drive by lynching” from those lovable LP’s; yes, you too can watch money evaporate from your account at the speed of light, and it won’t hurt a bit .., Cable bolts higher by 50 PIPS in 100 seconds, stops once again cleaned out … now time to head lower; anybody here see a pattern besides me? “Oh wait … my bad … it’s not solved … never mind”. [And by the way, this isn’t a triple reversal, cuz the first one had a day’s range that was too small.] And on and on we go being entertained by clueless Pols ad infinitum nauseum.

Ok, now according to the news, everything has been agreed upon except the Irish border issue; whose arms are gonna get twisted in this scam? Anyway, it looks like something might get accomplished after all, but now we got a whole slew of economic data out in the U.K. tomorrow morning early, and don’t forget, NFP on the horizon tomorrow morning in the U.S., and that is gonna move the Dollar … so, want to make a Brexit bet with that coming up here at the end of the European day and into the U.S. lazy afternoon? I’m thinking no, you don’t cuz most likely it’s nothing but a stop hunt one way or the other, but I think it puts pressure on EURGBP to move lower. Not predictin’, just sayin’. Meanwhile, through all of the recent Cable mess, EURUSD is in a coma; I haven’t seen it move more than 5 – 10 PIPS all day, and like I said before, if I want to trade Cable I will, but EURGBP is a cross and should have two-way action; for the last 3 days it’s had zero.

It should be clear, that something is gonna get done with the Irish border issue … think ObamaCare and the arm-twisting and “sweetheart deals” afforded to Ben Nelson & Bart Stupak back in 2010 … it’ll be worse in the U.K., cuz nobody is gonna let the Irish take this thing down … one way or another, whatever it takes to get the vote is gonna be what happens in the next 24 hours or so … so, that brings us to U.S. NFP … what if it’s very Dollar bullish or very bearish and the big mover is … not Cable but EURUSD, and while Cable goes ± 20 PIPS, EURUSD goes 100+ PIPS, then what?

Cuz right now, I’m of the opinion this could be the biggest “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trade we’ve seen in a while. May comes out and announces a deal is struck … Cable goes up 30 PIPS in a millisecond, and then 5 minutes later it’s under water, and the EURGBP cross is going orbital. I’m on guard for it, and I’m ready for it as well. Quite frankly, these last couple of days have been hard on me, maintaining discipline and patience in the face of some wicked rallies and breaks, while the market goes nowhere … today will be the 7th day in a row EURGBP will close within 30 PIPS or so of each other, if things close tonight where they are now. It’s been nothing short of a panic-driven stop hunt that is gonna get resolved here very quickly … and when it does, we’re gonna be there in full force. How many times in the last 4 days [including today] has EURGBP gone “batguano” crazy over 0.88500? And how many times have we gone “bat guano” crazy under 0.87900? And in both instances, once it’s over, it comes right back into the 90 – 25 range it’s felt comfortable in lately … well, that isn’t gonna last much longer, and I expect tomorrow’s NFP, along with the “jubilant news” out of May’s Gubermint to give the market impetus to make a nice move and sustain it going into next week. And while everybody is focused on Cable, don’t be surprised if EURUSD is the driver of the trade tomorrow, cuz these 30 PIP ranges EURUSD have put in lately as the day’s range most assuredly aren’t gonna last either … get ready for some EURUSD volatility.

Again today, thank you Brit Gubermint, I made no trades cuz I don’t want part of the Cable “shit show-a-rama” stop hunts, that end up taking EURGBP on a wild ride. The problem isn’t simply one of stops and getting filled at the extreme … the other problem is, even if you’re right and the market “pops” in your direction … Ok, I’m long and I got a sell limit order in 17 PIPS higher than where the market is presently … the market gets “jacked” and goes up 20 PIPS in a millisecond and then just as fast is 25 lower … guess where I get my fill? That’s right, 5 lower from where I’m at, cuz the scumbag LP is gonna say, “we tried, but couldn’t fill your order at your price, so we filled it at the next bid price, and that was 25 lower … have a nice day”. It is what it is, and it’s happened to me in the past … it sucks, and even when you win, they find a way to make you lose … scumbags top to bottom.

Not to be outdone by the European’s, here in the New York P.M., the “shit show-a-rama” continues with Cable, as somebody just bombed EURGBP by 40 PIPS as Cable skyrocketed … somebody needs their “head examined”, but in this “bizarro” week we’ve been in, why not. Minutes later, it’s “to the moon Alice”, as Cable dives 70 PIPS, only to climb right back after somebody got screwed royally; my job, is to make sure it isn’t US! Here’s the “shit show-a-rama” directly below.

Ok, tell me how you don’t get “monkey hammered” in this, no matter whether you’re long or short … it’s nothing but losses all the way around, and the blame goes right to the feet of GBPUSD, where the LP’s are “jacking” every order they can find. “Thanks, but no thanks. Quite frankly, I’m disappointed the market is choosing to do this, cuz all it does is hurt the trading business, which means volumes and liquidity are the eventual losers … just ask the gold market. I hope this kind of bullshit doesn’t continue. It’s late in the New York day, and there’s no way I’m getting caught in some short squeeze bullshit move up, cuz there is zero time to recover if I’m wrong. With everything on tap tomorrow, it looks to be a good trading day … we’ll see. I will admit, it’s been tough to remain disciplined, during this Cable drama, but looking back at the trade, some of those moves today and yesterday would have caught us the wrong way in the algorithm … that means everything else is to get back to even, “if” the market cooperates, and that’s a really big “IF”. Tomorrow looks to be the end of this crap … we’ll see. Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below, and I’m outta here …

Have a great day everybody!



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