SUNDAY UPDATE: THE SCUMBAG LP’S FEEL THREATENED

 

“Life behind the “Oz Curtain” at the LP when markets move!!”

According to “forexlive.com” in a post on December 18, 2023, we’re labeled as

“TOXIC TRADERS” … did you know you’re a “toxic trader”? … the link

directly below.

https://www.forexlive.com/Education/how-forex-brokers-can-identify-toxic-

traders-20231218/

A quick read of this disgusting article pretty much proves my thesis and

premise, that anybody who makes money is “toxic” to the brokerage house

and the scumbag LP, and if you’re not a source of constant & continued

profitability to the house [would you like to make another deposit?], you’re a

problem … am I the only one who finds this article extremely annoying and

pisses me off!? … and while this article is for “edumacation” purposes [so it

says], don’t be fooled into believing propaganda … this is a warning … and it’s

not just “Tapaas”, there’s an entire “cottage industry” that springs up to help

serve the thieves and crooks that call their shakedown operations as a

“liquidity provider” [LP] … anybody who’s ever traded anything in a “live”

account for longer than 5 minutes at any house will find out real quick about

mystery bids [sells] and mystery offers [buys], along with slippage on fills,

and utter. “WTF was that?”, and wonder how the Hell their mini-lot buy trade in

EURUSD could send the offer price up 1 ½ PIPS for their fill … well, wonder

no more!

Of course, the Standard Operating Procedure [SOP] at houses everywhere

when you point out to them you got royally fucked on an order is to invoke

the “DUH!, market conditions, DUH!, plausible deniability mantra, and that’s the

end of the conversation … and now, houses are all to eager to tell you

SCALPERS WELCOME! … that’s cuz they all pretty much employ

“ANTI-SCALPING” SOFTWARE [just like the article suggests] to thwart those

trying to “pick off” the LP in a somewhat more highly VIX environment … some

houses worse than others to be sure, but since the start of 2024, a sea change

at IQCENT where they’ve taken it to extremes in crypto pairs … not that it’s a

decision at IQCENT, they’re simply going along with the LP [Thompson

Reuters], who I can only assume has gotten beaten in Q4 2023 worse than a

baby seal at a Japanese whale hunt in crypto pairs … and their predictable

response is to scream “HELP!” to the cottage industry telling them they can

defeat scalpers … and so what we’ve seen this last week is that going into

affect … and I can tell you it will completely destroy the crypto trading at

IQCENT if they keep it up, cuz nobody is gonna accept trading [for example]

Bitcoin in $50+ increments and get trapped into losses they have no control

over, and the fact you can’t depend on them to keep the bid/offer current

… would you trade EURUSD right now and could only get in or out in 5+ PIP

increments and had no idea when the bid/offer would change to reflect actual

market conditions? … HELL NO YOU WOULDN’T!!

It’s a different story in EURUSD, USDJPY, and USDCNH, the only 3 FX pairs I

would trade at IQCENT … THAT’S CUZ THEY HAVE RAZOR THIN SPREADS

AND NO COMMISSIONS … and as I have explained before, know how this place

and LP makes their money … they split the slippage from constantly being off

the actual market by fractions to maybe as much as 2 or 3 PIPS under normal

conditions … you ALWAYS HAVE TO HAVE A PRIMARY MARKET [COINEXX,

FUSION MARKETS, ETC.] served by a very thin spread to compare bid prices … obviously, you want to buy FX when the IQCENT price is LOWER THAN THE

COINEXX BID by at least 0.2 PIPS … when SHTF [like Friday with NFP & ISM

numbers] you can effectively do “arb scalping”.

The entire thesis / premise of FX and “arb scalping” I’ve explained before, and

it’s at least 100X bigger and deeper than crypto could ever think to be right now

… there’s an entire ocean of institutions being served by scumbags like

Thompson Reuters, and since they’re not traders, they take their piece of the

pie and pass on the rest to the platform … within 1 second, maybe 1 ½ seconds

at most, IT’S GONE! … they’ve already employed “ANTI-SCALPING”

MEASURES INTO their skipping around slippage on the platform, and for

most of the Dopes who trade at IQCENT IN FX, I’d be shocked if any of ‘em

looked or watched closely at other platforms and figured out the “game” that

is being played on them … this ain’t 2003, where 20 years ago FX spreads

[and everything else traded as well] were FAT, SLIPPAGE EVEN FATTER, and

the houses online for electronic trading made a fucking killing … in theory,

today spreads are “tight”, but as a spec trading, you have to OVERCOME the

“T DISTRIBUTION” MATRIX of added slippage up/down on the “T Curve” based

on current volatility, which gives the LP & house the “edge” in successfully

defeating you in a collective sense … THAT’S WHY THEY WELCOME

SCALPERS! … if they simply raised the spread, nobody would trade with ‘em

… anybody trading USDJPY AT A HOUSE WHERE THE SPREAD IS 2 ½ - 3

FULL PIPS? … no? … wonder why when it’s 0.4 PIPS at IQCENT WITH NO

COMMISSIONS? … now, if you buy and sell at the wrong times compared to

the primary market [Coinexx bid for example], you’ll be trading it almost right

there at 2 ½ - 3 FULL PIPS!

And while I’m secure in the fact they’d love to have better conditions for

themselves in FX, THEY CAN’T cuz the competition is too intense and traders

too smart … they simply have to live with what they got now and realize there

will always be people like me who can defeat them, but the collective makes

them tons of money so who cares? … and that ain’t the story over in crypto!

… I guess if they’re Hellbent on destroying their business they got the right to

do that, but it is what it is … we’ll see what management does when they look

at their runs and figure out “el quicko mucho” everybody has left and they got

ZERO CRYPTO TRADING REVENUES … what happens then? 

Directly below, this week’s 20 Day Range MA & MEDIAN values for selected

markets.

click on table to enlarge

In this modern age of manipulation, you just never know when houses & LP’s get

better / worse, do good things / do “stupid shit” things, buy others, sell the

business to Dopes, and we out here in the public domain got no clue what’s

going on … it’s not like they share anything cuz they don’t! … still, IQCENT IS

THE PLACE TO BE FOR USDJPY, UNDER THE RIGHT CONDITIONS, and with a

primary market to compare it to, and “arb scalping” is excellent on important

reports and releases most of the time.

Look for the final version of the algorithm coming next Sunday in pdf, although

tomorrow’s blog I’ll highlight the important concepts … “almost finished” didn’t

make it to today’s finish line!… onto the week!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

END THE FED … POLITICAL HACKS WHO HAVE NO CREDIBILITY

 

“A lying, hypocritical, two faced "flip flopping” bag of flaming dog shit!!”

Yesterday’s FED hatchet job takes the cake! … clearly an election year ploy by

the Libtard FED Lounge Lizards to give the criminal, treasonous, Taliban loving,

sleepy ass Joe some help in 11 months … they have lost ALL of any credibility

they had, cuz this is purely 100% political … why just a little over 2 weeks ago,

they all were singing “higher for longer”, or aren’t we supposed to remember?

… inflation numbers, if you believe them, cuz I surely don’t, showed

government fairy tale inflation to be “only”4% [of course, ex food and energy,

cuz nobody needs those, right?]… yup, we got inflation “whipped”, the new,

new, new normal is gonna be 4% apparently! … ALL OF ‘EM!

… what a bunch of LYING ASSHOLES!

AND IF YOU ARE A “NORMAL” AMERICAN WHO SEES THEIR CREDIT CARD

BALANCE GET CHARGED 30%, and tried to buy a house but couldn't, what

must you be feeling knowing that lower rates should have been forthcoming

6 months ago, but weren’t, but now that we’re 11 months to 2024 elections,

suddenly these ASSHOLES discover religion? … maybe think about this next

time you walk into a voting booth, cuz you are being “played”! … and this is

exactly why I trade like I do, and why position players get destroyed … it’s cuz

of shit like yesterday! 

Clearly gold is back in play now … the market wind has violently shifted after

yesterday’s FED Lounge Lizard “circus act”, and I wouldn’t be surprised to

eventually learn that they’ve covered most, if not all, of their short positions in

gold prior to the announcement yesterday … 1830 to 2140 = $310 … half of

that =$155 … add 155 to the bottom at 1830 = $1985, and the market break

ended in the 1970’s area … then comes the “flip flop” and gold goes up $50+

“el quicko mucho” … nice feat of “financial engineering” by the most corrupt

hacks ever seen at the central bank … it remains to be seen if I’m right or not,

but one telltale sign I am right is that rallies going forward aren’t gonna be

aggressively sold by the “Rally Protection Team” [RPT] cuz the FED isn’t

short any more … we’ll see.

Meanwhile, the “Clown College” spends money worse than a drunken sailor

… TRILLIONS UPON TRILLIONS that have to be borrowed and NEVER WILL BE

REPAID!, except in cheaper currency with less purchasing power … anybody

that buys longer duration Treasury fiat is an idiot, and deserves what they

eventually get … how long this Ponzi scheme works is an open question, but

once the Saudi’s dump the dollar for oil, the end is close at hand.

Turning to today’s circus shitshow, given what the Lounge Lizards did, outside

of some long liquidations once the market gets lopsided LONG, all breaks for

the foreseeable future can be bought on algorithm signals, especially FX

… gold maybe … “arb scalps” were non existent today in just about everything

… for sure not as prevalent as the discounts seen on rallies … I’ll explain that in

tomorrow’s blog.

For the PAMM some trades in EURUSD, AND WE ENDED DOWN A MICKY D’S

happy meal … and of course slippage an issue in that, not surprising

considering we’re talkin’ about Coinexx, but it is what it is … and while I don’t

have major issues with EURUSD, I prefer GBPUSD cuz it’s faster, & has larger

ranges, both daily and NY session … tomorrow sees the PAMM go back to

GBPUSD [Cable] … and it “trades” better than gold.

Over at IQCENT, where did all of the “Basis Premium” go? … Is it vacation time?

… cuz of the impending Holiday season? … all I saw were “bigly & yuge”

discounts in the “basis” on any rally in crypto [MATICUSDT], and very tiny

Premium on breaks maybe, but nothing really considering how shit moves in

crypto … “The Syndicate” basically UNCH’D on the day in very disappointing

crypto action … onto tomorrow!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

OH BOY! … IT’S LOUNGE LIZARD LYING DAY

 

“Life at 2 PM EST on FED meeting day on interest rates!!”

PPI data early saw a slight moderation in producer inflation, if you choose to

believe the math whiz kids … USDJPY tipped lower, but no “arb scalps” … in

fact, on the way to the low it was nearly all ”Basis discounts” … why? … market

too short and oversold at the scumbag LP at IQCENT, and with their computers

telling them that, they’re not gonna let you get out without paying up a few PIPS

on the offer side … and when you eventually pay up, cuz you will, they turn

around and buy the offer from a top tier LP somewhere else and make off with

1 - 3 PIPS of pure gravy they split with IQCENT … it’s how they make their

money … and it’s just the reverse of that on the downside … unfortunately, no

“arb scalps” in USDJPY off the PPI … just not enough when it did go premium

to justify the trade without taking on too much risk.

Over in EURUSD, it’s the same scenario, but it has relatively less risk than

USDJPY … THE ALGORITHM AS STANDALONE, IMHO is better for trading than

USDJPY … more pure moves, less spikes, so there is something to be said for

that … onto the lying Lounge Lizards at 2 PM EST.

Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … “crickets to a nuclear explosion” … of

course, what else is there anymore in these rigged markets … and through it all,

nothing “bigly & yuge” DISCOUNTS for the “arb scalps” … what a fucking joke

… the only place you could find decent “arb scalp” trades from the LONG side is

in crypto, where they’re all over the place … no trades for the PAMM today, and

with this EPIC “FLIP FLOP” FROM THE LOUNGE LiZARDS, [remember,

“higher for longer we were fed for like fucking forever? … yea, that’s out the

window!], we’re gonna leave USDJPY for the PAMM and move to EURUSD

… USDJPY is headed lower, and being on the long side there is not wise IMHO

… too many things can go wrong … so, EURUSD it is … more on this tomorrow.

Crypto acting well after the explosion AND BETRAYAL TO TRADERS

EVERYWHERE, simply cuz it’s a free market environment … A few post Spicoli

trades with DISCOUNTS, AND “The Syndicate” UP APROXIMATLEY 0.3% ON

LIGHT VOLUMES … more on crypto tomorrow as well.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

A MEGA MELTDOWN IN JPY FX … A LESSON IN POSITIONING

 

“Hey Skippy, how’s that long USDJPY position working out!!?”

Everybody and their pet rabbit, thinks they can get out of long positions at the

top … they can’t and won’t … not every dog gets to ride on the firetruck, and

markets are no different … I said many moons ago that Spicoli, over at the FED,

could not afford to let the world’s largest bond market [that would be Japan] go

tapioca, and see USDJPY go ever higher … not just cuz the BOJ Apparatchiks

are fucking insane and let USDJPY go orbital on their own, but cuz a disaster

there means a disaster here … which is fine if it’s on somebody else’s watch, but

not if your the current FED Lounge Lizard Chairman … so, find a way to cut

rates, while at the same time explaining to the nutjobs over at the BOJ, that it’s

time to either adjust the yield curve control [YCC], or the whole stinking

“house of cards” known as the world’s financial system, is gonna go down, and

they with it … and in the blink of a couple of hours, 2 years worth of ever

climbing USDJPY FX rates, gets monkey hammered worse than a baby seal at a

Japanese whale hunt … “and no Skippy, you didn’t get out at the “top”, but your

“protective sell stop” did get filled at the bottom, so congrats!” … and it brings

home the concept of the term “proper fucked” to a whole new level!

You’d like to think the BOJ Gov [Ueda] who spoke and ushered in this new era of

Japanese saneness [maybe] on interest rates in their bond market and the need

for YCC tampered down, knew what he was doing and the potential damage it

might cause, and decided it was better than his predecessor, “Peter Pan Kuroda”

[I think I can, I think I can], and his thinking of “Fuck it, we’re going full retard

loose monetary policy forever!” … but then again, like all central bank Honchos,

their political Hacks, who got there by being … “well, political Hacks” … so it’s

not at all certain he knew or ascertained WTF he was doing when he did it … we

won’t know until late January [big BOJ Pow-WOW] when the BOJ discusses

rates outlook for 2024 … maybe he’s simply full of shit, and needed a stronger

Yen to “take care” of Japanese banks, life insurers, and big import/export

companies into year end … and at the same time, US markets are ASSUMING

RATE CUTS BY THE FED TOTALLING 175 BASIS POINTS! FOR 2024 … how the

Hell that happens is beyond me, so maybe Ueda uttered a few words to get

USDJPY LOWER [Yen higher] while the gettin’ is ripe, knowing for real the

fantasy land scenario markets are pricing is full stinking week old fish! 

Which of course all leads to the most important EVAHHHHHHHHH NFP number

[until the next one] that comes today at 8:30 AM EST … WTF happens if the

math whiz kids over at the Bureau of Unicorns & Fairy Tales come up with a

“bigly & yuge” sigma miss to the upside in terms of jobs, would be quite the

“circus shitshow” for markets to deal with, cuz there goes your lower rates

story down the drain … and what would it mean for USDJPY? … Oy Vey Ira!

… time for “Arb Scalp-A-Rama!!”

Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … wasn’t even that big of a miss to the

upside in terms of jobs, coming in at 199K versus expectations of 180K, and all

Hell breaks loose in USDJPY to the upside, followed by another “monkey

hammering” to the downside … in terms of “arb scalping” it’s important to

remember 2 things … 1) “arb scalping” is defined as the “basis = price of

USDJPY @ COINEXX [or any other offshore house that has a very tight or zero

spread on the MT4 platform] - the price of USDJPY @ IQCENT” … so for long

positions in the “arb scalp” for USDJPY, we want POSITIVE “BASIS” … if I was

looking to establish short USDJPY “arb scalps” I’d be looking for NEGATIVE

“BASIS” … and ALL of our positions are done at IQCENT on their trading

platform, which is proprietary … 2) It’s not the m1 of the report or economic

release that’s key, it’s the minutes that follow THAT MATTER, and where you’re

gonna find “arb scalps” … the more important the release, the bigger the

discount or premium in the “basis” … that would be FED interest rate decisions,

NFP report, Consumer Sentiment], PMI & ISM numbers, PCE and CPI / PPI

inflation numbers, retail sales data, JOLTS data [help wanted ads], ADP [private

jobs report], jobless claims, any of Spicoli’s remarks from speeches and Q&A

after words, and/or testimony in front of the Clown College [both retarded

chambers] … and finally any & all releases of everything else that has “sigma”

misses [standard deviation misses up or down from consensus] … all of these

will fall between 8:15 AM EST - 10 AM EST, except for Spicoli’s speeches which

can be anytime … that’s why it’s important to check with forexlive.com under

their “Economic Calendar” to see what’s up for the day in the U.S. and/or

Japan, cuz you don’t want to be in any trade, “arb scalp” or not, minutes before

any release is upcoming.

That’s a lot of data flowing, and USDJPY reacts to it either slightly or bat shit

crazy [BSC] … and we end up getting a lot more “arb scalps” as a result over &

above anything that’s happening in crypto pairs … plus, USDJPY is the second

largest market in the world with about $1.5 TRILLION DOLLARS worth traded

every trading day … the largest is EURUSD at about $2.5 TRILLION DOLLARS

worth every day … and if/when EURUSD gets as active as USDJPY, “arb scalps”

will be there as well … they’re there right now, but aren’t as big as what we see in

USDJPY … another BIG PLUS is that leverage margin at IQCENT is 500:1 for

EURUSD, and 300:1 for USDJPY … I’m not your MOM, but when you’re buying

USDJPY 20 - 30 PIPS UNDER COINEXX [LP’s are a primary market] on upticks at

COINEXX, NOT DOWNTICKS, BUT UPTICKS, your LONG trade is about as close to

perfection as you can ever hope to get … so, choose your leverage on these as

you see fit according to your risk profile.

So now moving over to the largest, most corrupt casino the world has ever seen,

today we get NFP & Consumer Sentiment [both slightly higher than consensus]

… and we got “Arb Scalp-A-Rama” on steroids … and from the minutes following

NFP, through Consumer Sentiment, and onto the London Fix [NOON EST], it’s

non-stop “hunting” [no license required] … I will add that for those that desire

to trade USDJPY from the short side, the DISCOUNTS today [neg basis] got frickin’

OUTRAGEOUS at times, with -30 / - 35 PIP DISCOUNTS! … those lasted less than

a second, but they were there … and if you’re trading on a single screen, I use a

split-screen approach where IQCENT is the full page, and COINEXX MT4 is

minimized over it [see directly below] … I can see both markets instantly, and

when I click the buy button at IQCENT, the COINEXX MT4 immediately goes

away and I’m on the “My Trades” page with the liquidation button right there

… Easy Peezee!

click on image to enlarge

The only thing that pisses me off about today, is the fact that at one of the lows,

a minute or two later we got a massive +30 PIPS in the “basis” as the

price of USDJPY at Coinexx started going up, and all of us [Me, “The Mrs.”, and

Miss Gimpy] hit the buy button … I get a “sorry, rejected order, try again” while

“The Mrs.” & Miss Gimpy get filled … 9 seconds later it’s 35 PIPS higher and they

liquidate … did you happen to hear the whooping & hollering over the horizon?

… WTF … next thing I hear is, “ready to hit the “spa” for a massage and then over

to our favorite seafood place on the ocean for lunch, followed by shopping?

… never seen 2 women move so fast making the reservations & then shutting

their screens, getting up, and leaving me and the dog sitting there looking at

each other like we’re 2 nobodies going stag at a high school prom! … 5 minutes

later they’re out the door, having made more money than the GDP of Zimbabwe!

… and while we can certainly get that over in crypto, it’s not nearly as frequent

nor is the crypto market anywhere near the size / volume / liquidity of USDJPY

… Hell, USDJPY is 100X+ bigger than crypto, so when you get a very fat premium

there, it’s like somebody just handed you a gold bar! … “thank you, come again!”

Meanwhile over in other markets, gold is getting “monkey hammered” again,

below 2K as we get past NOON EST … after a few days of “dead cat bouncing”

and now this development, I think for the moment the FED has won the high

stakes game of chicken between them and the ChiComs with that move to ATH

on Monday’s session … Spicoli knows there’s no chance in Hell of rate cuts in

2024 even coming close to 175 basis points, which “Wall Street” guru’s have

priced in for markets, and therefore selling gold makes sense to him up there in

the clouds certainly above 2100, but also 2050 … yet again, though, I’m pretty

certain there are a whole host of new gold owners that have gotten burned

… AGAIN! … always buying when price is skyrocketing and never when it’s

going down … this is the norm for gold owners over the last 50 years … crypto

drifting, and “Stock Bellies” looking slightly higher.

As I said yesterday, the PAMM will start in USDJPY come Monday … a shipload

of trades for “The Syndicate” … UP APPROXIMATELY 1.4% on light to modest

volumes … and remember, “arb scalping” also is available at IQCENT in

EURUSD, but given current conditions in EURUSD, meaning ranges & current

VIX, it’s simply not as good as USDJPY … also remember what I said about non

dollar crosses and how YEN dominates the denominator against every other

tradeable FX pair, thus making it the non dollar cross “KING” … EURUSD isn’t

the denominator in anything … we get these distortions in USDJPY, IMHO, cuz

the smaller financial institutions around the world, get orders from clients in the

local cross against the YEN as their clients do some kind of business with

Japanese companies or financial institutions there … obviously, they’ll keep the

local currency but have no need for the YEN after payment, so they lay it off to

the financial institution they do business with … these situations arise

constantly cuz it’s too expensive to do biz with Hellhole megabanks like JPM

and/or Vampire Squid [Goldman Sachs], and more than likely they hate the

“silk suit crowd” anyway … the financial institutions that get these types of

cross payment demands from clients aren’t interested in trading, their biz is

banking, and so they seek out LP’s like “Thompson Reuters” [the LP at

IQCENT] … they take their cut, and then put the rest out there on the platform

in the bid/offer, and BINGO!, BANGO!, BOOM!, the order gets filled in under a

second or two at the most, as traders like us jump in for the kill … how come

“Thompson Reuters” doesn’t take the whole thing? … simple: they are there as

liquidity providers, NOT AS TRADERS FOR PROFIT OR LOSS … IT AIN’T THEIR

BUSINESS MODEL!

Blog update on Sunday … OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs

of sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!!

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas