“THELMA & LOUISE” GOT NOTHIN’ ON CABLE

 

“Are we rallying yet? … Errr no, just don’t look down Ok?”

“Well, that escalated quickly to the downside, didn’t it”? And there are 3 points 

to this that make for particularly interesting trading analysis, post NFP from 

the department of Unicorns & Fairy Tales; 1) the NFP was a complete “miss”, 

making anyone with one functioning brain cell wonder how the hell the FED 

raises rates 3 or possibly 4 more times this year without causing a worldwide 

frickin’ DEPRESSION, 2) May’s government [Tories / conservatives] did 

much better in local elections in Britain than was expected, and 3) GBPUSD is 

now down 900 PIPS in 13 trading days, with one up day to its credit, with no 

days since the top on April 17th, where the previous day’s high has been 

breached [excluding Sunday’s].

And yet, given all that, Cable tried and failed miserably to rally right after the 

NFP report … “and you know how bad it is when good news [see the 3 above] 

can’t even get you but a couple of PIPS up on the day, before it’s “monkey 

hammering” time … and boy, did they take this thing lower viciously & quickly; 

about 80 PIPS in 19 minutes, and the one “bounce” in there lasted all of a few 

seconds as it tried to rally 10 PIPS, and got it all wiped away in less than 2 

seconds … and the last 30 - 40 PIPS down to below 1.35000 sure looked, felt, & 

smelled like “capitulation” for the longs”.

Of course, it’s too soon to know that, but the market is so negative on Cable 

right now, and the “urge to purge” so prevalent among big money types, that 

they only got one thing, and one thing only, on their collective minds … “where 

the hell can I sell this dog crap”? … which brings me to the following caption I 

saw on ZH the other day, directly below.

 

As I said yesterday, and have stated before, you can’t try and pick tops or 

bottoms in Cable, cuz when the freight train starts coming down the mountain 

 you may look like a genius for 2 seconds, and before you can bat your eyes, the 

sell stop liquidation box [if you’re long] pops up on your screen with your fill at 

the bottom of a spike that just happened. Having said that, though, Cable isn’t 

going to zero either. What traders need to understand, is that getting long too 

early will dearly cost you, and the way to combat that, is to be long ONLY 

when the market is above the blue square box, and short ONLY when the 

market is below the blue square box, and then follow the M1 algorithm … will 

you miss some massive reversal days off the bottom? … “yup, the ones that 

happen 1 - 3 times a year; the rest that you would have lost money on get saved by 

not doing “stupid shit” … do the math here … and by the way, you’ll need to 

“pick the bottom” of those massive turnarounds to maybe get back to even; good 

luck with that”!

Turning to today’s GBPUSD market … another NFP Friday, where everything 

happens in minutes, and then “that’s it, thanks for playing, come back again 

soon”! And for a second or two, it looked like today might just be the day they 

rocket this stuff up and clean out some buy stops, but when that wagon train 

got steam rolled and it got below the lower boundary of the blue box, after 

waiting for a few minutes to see if it was gonna be another “fake out”, all hell 

breaks loose to the downside, and it was “Thelma & Louise” for 19 minutes, 

down about 80 PIPS … and from there it’s been almost straight up to where we 

are now, around the 1.35400 level, some 50 - 60 PIPS off the low of the day. Like 

I said, it sure smells like “capitulation” selling at the bottom. The Cable 

algorithm M15 directly below, from today.

 

Only one short trade today … PAMM up a few bucks, nothing significant.

I’m most definitely not selling “in the hole” on the way down … been to that 

rodeo and in the long run it doesn’t work well; yes, today would have seen it 

work, but we only know that in hindsight. What I did do is sell the first rally off 

the low that meant anything, which was about 20 - 25 PIPS off the low, after it 

appeared to roll over from the short covering rally. My fill was good, and I was 

up immediately in the position, and seconds later I’m up more than 5 PIPS 

… and I’m thinkin’, “Ok, keep losing steam here and either make a new low, or go 

test the old low, but don’t show me the bullshit 3 -4 PIP uptick from some order on 

an FX desk, that tells me it’s close to being over” … and sure enough, as I’m 

thinkin’ it, I get the 3 ½ PIP up blast in one tick, and liquidate with a very small 

1 PIP gain … and it’s a good thing I did, cuz even though it went higher, it tried 

again to go lower a few minutes later, but turned around very quickly, and now 

we’re 30+ higher from where I originally sold it.

It’s not a signal to get long, it’s a signal “NOT” to be short anymore, cuz when 

you start seeing the bullshit up ticks coming in after a break, that’s the red flag 

up the flagpole that’s telling you it’s close to being over … not always the low, 

but the real money guys with more commas in their equity run than you have 

zeroes in yours, are coming into the market and buying very [if it’s up] large 

chunks of Cable from the LP’s, and like cockroaches, where there’s one, there 

are more close by waiting to do the same thing.

In so many ways, typical of an NFP Friday … literally kill one side of the order 

book in seconds with a shot to the head, and then turn it around and slow bleed 

the other side the rest of the day. I knew when I sold it, that it was the markets 

only chance at going lower … cuz they either go back to the low for a retest, or 

make another new lower low; both obviously fine with me … however, if it fails 

and goes higher, that’s it cuz there ain’t gonna be any more moves of 

significance to the downside, cuz the market has run out of sellers … in other 

words, the music has stopped and all the fat kids are running for chairs, so 

where does that leave you?

And here we are about an hour to our close at 18:00, and we’re 60+ PIPS off the 

low, and shorts still have nowhere to go, and put another notch on the down days, 

so now we’re 13 out of 14 trading days GBPUSD is lower some 900 PIPS from 

the most recent daily high, with no previous day’s high being breached … and 

that’s if things stay tame ‘till the close of Wall Street … EXIT QUESTION: 

“How many days are gonna be in this string before we see an explosion like today 

on the upside, and buy stops set off on a previous day’s high getting filled like 

today’s sells at the bottom”? With today’s washout, I’m betting a lot sooner than 

the people that sold this morning are counting on, and my hope is that they 

don’t bring this stuff all the way back up … and when that lower opening at 

6:00 - 6:30 comes and then turns around through the blue box, look the hell 

out … may come Monday, may come in 2 weeks, I dunno, only that it’s coming, 

and the longer it takes, the more violent the buy stops when it comes … and 

from experience, I know how it comes … right off the low straight up, with no 

chance waiting for the train to stop and let you on board, and like I said 

yesterday, 70 - 100+ PIPS in less than 35 minutes [usually], and everybody that 

gets caught short gets carried out “toes up” … hence, my real reluctance to get 

to negative on Cable down here, until we see some type of rally, and the  

“Johnny come lately” short position trader crowd get burned something fierce 

on buy stop fills. Until then mi amigos, be very, very careful about being short 

and giving it room to breath, cuz the short side is getting very crowded and 

tight.

So, another bullshit NFP Friday … why should this one be any different from 

the last 400+ I’ve been through? … “speed of light … crickets [shhh!]; welcome to 

trading Newbies”! Next week sees the BOE with an interest rate meeting on 

Thursday … oh, won’t that be interesting … here’s my take; “if they raise rates, 

which incidentally a month ago was a “slam dunk” 95% sure thing, Cable will 

initially jump higher, but then will get literally murdered on the downside … why? 

… cuz it will be considered a “one off” that leads to a recession and the need to 

cut rates sooner rather than later … On the other hand, if they do nothing, which 

is now what is expected, Cable might rally on “buy the rumor, sell the fact” if no 

selling shows up to knock it lower, and wouldn’t that be interesting given what 

we’ve seen these last 2 - 3 weeks”?

Ultimately, it won’t matter, cuz the algorithm dictates our trades, not what I’m 

thinkin’, but if you’re looking for rational justification of price from rational 

economic thought, FX surely ain’t it, cuz what makes sense almost never 

happens. In any event, even if today is some kind of short term bottom in price, 

it’s gonna take a long while to repair the chart damage in pretty much every 

time frame, so I wouldn’t be looking for price to explode higher and then keep 

going … not predictin’, just sayin’.

And while I’m not keen on missing the down move, I got no regrets in not being 

there today for it, cuz in order to capture any of it, you have to do “stupid shit”, 

and quite frankly, I’ve had my fill of “stupid shit” lately to last until about the 

year 2095, where I’ll be hooked up to a Google machine still trading … until 

then, “fugetaboutit”! I’m outta here … Sunday night sees some website updates, 

so until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

I just got lazy last night, so over the weekend I’ll post updated PAMM 

Spreadsheet results along with other updated archived data, along with a small 

blog post.

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND

OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN

“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN

FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND

START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO

“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

  

 

A NEVER ENDING BATTLE

 

“When the scumbag LP bankers go to work!”

I often talk about “situational awareness” in trading, and today gives a great 

lesson via the Easter Holiday; most of Asia & Europe closed today, which only 

leaves the stock indices up to the New York session and the scumbag LP banks 

that inhabit this corner of the world … “Gosh, what could possibly go wrong up 

to the open of trading @9:30, and then moving into the trading day”?

Given the chance, these vermin would rip your grandmother’s heart out and 

feed it to the pigs, for a chance at stealing $1 from her account … it’s who they 

are and it’s what they do, and you simply have to know who the hell you are 

dealing with, and what conditions are in the marketplace to justify a trade 

… otherwise, like lions sitting in the tall grass upwind from the gazelle’s, they 

will bide their time and then strike the most lame.

Directly below, 2 examples of price action a couple of hours before the NYSE 

open … and without notice, they “jack” the spread from 2 index points to what 

you see in the M1 … why? … “cuz they can, that’s why, and they use the excuse 

of the Easter Holiday to tell anybody & everybody it’s because of “market 

conditions”. MY RESPONSE: “Bullshit … you see a chance for theft with an 

order that is about to happen, and you refuse to be a liquidity provider, and 

instead become a thief, up and until said order is filled or cancelled, and trading 

goes back to regular programming. And then you tell everybody thin Holiday 

market conditions were the culprit, and it isn’t your fault … anybody reading this 

with more than one active brain cell believe this bat guano”?

 

 

Now, everybody knows they are thieves, but nobody has a choice when trading 

… you deal with them or you go home. My point though, is simply to 

remember who you’re dealing with around Holidays, and not fall prey to doing 

“stupid shit”, and getting caught in the net of a 6 or 7 point spread, when it was 

entirely predictable at some point they will pull this crap on customers. “Asia 

& Europe are closed … what are you thinking, that somehow they’re gonna give 

you a break on pricing when it moves”? And remember, these are derivatives 

… these scumbag LP banks can price these any way they want; the only thing 

that keeps them from getting indicted is competition from the other LP thieves 

lurking around the world … but, bottom line is they can do whatever the hell 

they want, and they can fill your order anywhere. “Dave … Dave … we don’t 

have a problem, do we Dave”?

Turning to today’s market … no volume, no liquidity, and no follow through to 

the bizarre “end of quarter” ramp seen on Thursday. 

“Well, that escalated quickly to the downside, didn’t it”? And after another 

“Chipmunk” run higher on the open, cuz they’ve never seen a stock price that 

was too high, the stock indices are getting “monkey hammered” lower, with a 

65,000 lot e-mini SP500 futures order helping, as that index busted through its 

200 day SMA on the downside. “Getting long today, outside of the open if you’re 

a Chipmunk, has been a dicey proposition, to say the least … the problems from 

trading this side of the market today are twofold; 1) when any up move ends, it’s 

lights out on the downside 1 millisecond later, and 2) your risk for a disaster on 

the downside is far greater than any up move is gonna make you, even if you’re 

right … simply put: your reward /risk profile from the long side isn’t very good”.

Just your basic DOW30 down 600+ points or so, here at Noon in New York 

… and I might add, outside the Chipmunk ramp at the open, straight down 

with very few green M1’s to speak of … now that the 200 day SMA’s have 

been breached in both the DOW30 & SP500, the indices look to be in some 

major technical trouble … news? … “fugetaboutit!” nobody cares, and besides, 

it’s all negative anyway … and we aren’t even to the afternoon yet, where if 

this stuff doesn’t find some support real soon, there will be a new definition of 

“ugly” in the dictionary. An entire generation of traders are about to find out 

what “tail risk” looks like, up close and personal, having been weaned on FED 

QE & “hopium” for way too many years. “It’s payback time fellas, buckle up 

and enjoy what you thought was never coming … [but always does!] … who 

knew stocks could go down”?

One trade today … PAMM up between 0.1% - 0.2%.

Quite frankly, I came into today thinking “STFR” was in order … but outside 

the open, rallies have been few and far between, with very little bounce. The 

short trade I made was on a small rally, which turned out to be a “reverse 

Teacup Handle Turn”, just as I describe it in the “DOW30 Aggressive Scalper 

Tutorial” … on the spike down, I liquidated and covered the position.

Even after the NYSE opened, the scumbag LP banks continue to play the  

“spread game”, thus we’ve seen already today in the first 3 hours of trading, 

the DOW30 spread between 2 - 10 index points … “given the nature of the 

apocalyptic down day, if they blow the spread out on you, you sure as hell don’t 

want to be in a long position … at least on the short side, you got some 

downward momentum in your favor that can make that spread difference up if 

you get caught in it”.

I want to make it clear, though, that none of the problems with spreads is a 

Turnkey Forex problem … hell, they’re simply the brokerage house, and 

they’re passing through the MT4 the scumbag LP bank quotes … it’s very 

much the damn banks, and like I said, we get what won’t get them indicted in 

a highly volatile market like today … when we have conditions like these today, 

every day is Christmas as far as they are concerned … “quote ‘em, tag ‘em, & 

then bag ‘em … have a nice day, please come again”!

So far today, my MT4 screen via the M1’s, has a 30 point grid, with at least 

60% - 70% of the M1’s exceeding that point range within 1 minute … this is 

just nuts. And the dirty little secret is, you get on the wrong side of one of these, 

or two or three, and you’ll be bleeding red ink all over the floor, cuz there is no 

way of knowing or assuming where it will stop with any confidence whatsoever. 

“So Skippy, you assess the day’s trend, and show patience & discipline in waiting 

for the proper “setup” … when you get it, you pounce … when you get the spike 

in your profit direction, you liquidate, you don’t sit around the faculty lounge and 

pontificate the wonders of technical analysis … when you got profits, don’t be so 

eager to go back in and attempt to give it all back … especially from the short 

side”!

Here in mid afternoon, the DOW30 has seen a couple of “dead cat bounces”, 

but things have slowed dramatically from a couple hours ago, as the market 

drifts sideways with a definite downward bias … with a little over 2 hours and 

change to the close, stock indices are hitting new lows for the session … “good 

grief could this get ugly … and not just on the way down either … sorry, I don’t 

have much experience trading a DOW30 700+ point range going into the close, 

except to say, leave it the hell alone or you get hurt, cuz it is not going to be pretty 

for either longs or shorts”.

I have no idea when or where this ends, but I can tell you how it ends … we 

need to see total selling capitulation on the New York open, not the close 

… until we get it, prices most likely go lower … and so far, none of the days up 

‘till now have seen this … it’s always been the Chipmunks buying the open 

… “not until everybody pukes, will we have seen the bottom … where that is, I 

haven’t a clue … I’m here to make money, not prognosticate from the faculty 

lounge”!

With Asia & Europe closed today, what the hell happens tonight when they 

reopen? Get ready for some wild price swings, as this week goes full retard into 

Friday’s NFP … “well actually, we’re already at full retard; Dow30 off 

approximately 450+ points very near the close with a 835 point range for the day 

… careful the volatility animal you wish for, but remember … it’s risk control that 

makes you a millionaire”. Until tomorrow mi amigos … I’m outta here for some 

Vitamin C therapy [Corona & lime] … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.

 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND

OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN

“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN

FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND

START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO

“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!