SUNDAY UPDATE: STEERING TOWARDS ARMAGEDDON

 

“Almost every day a new crisis to deal with!”

Has the financial world always been this dysfunctional and we just kept our heads

in the sand cuz we didn’t see any cracks? … or is, “this time it’s different”, and we

are hurtling towards a crash that will change the world? … Just in FX alone,

almost every day brings headlines we haven’t seen in decades, and the panic

among POLS is palpable … worst year for “Stonks” evahhhhhhh … gold still

being manipulated lower by banker scum … and it seems like every day and

week brings larger ranges, more reversals, and faster & faster moves to trap the

unwary … I’m not at all sure the world can handle it, and when it finally cracks

and falls down, there will be nobody to put the system back together.

This week sees an OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday, and the usual leaks & whispers

are reporting cuts of 1 million barrels per day to stem the tide of lower oil prices

… we’ll see … meanwhile, “Stock Bellies” have moved under 3600 on the “Spoos”,

thus taking out long term support on the daily & weekly chart … although only

under 3600 by a few index points, it points out the tenuous nature of the “risk off”

attitude every time the 10 YR. Treasury note goes higher in yield, and makes you

wonder where Spicoli’s “PUT” lies in the grand scheme of things.

Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA’s for selected pairs.

click on table to enlarge

Starting next week on Sunday, there will be some changes in regards to the 20

Day Range MA table … gone will be all of crypto except BTCUSD … in addition,

Natty Gas will be added, right along with WTI Crude Oil, and both will have two

values … 1) daily range, and 2) range in the New York session from 7 AM EST -

3 PM EST [14:00 - 22:00 Turnkey server time] … and what you’ll see, is that this

8 hour period consistently represents approximately 75% of the day’s range over

the other 16 hours in crude, and is consistently higher than that in Natty Gas,

where this week it’s about 90% of the day’s range … what this means, of course,

is that unless there is specific geopolitical news that either directly or indirectly

affects the energy complex, there’s no reason to get up early and watch paint dry

… come 7 AM, or very shortly thereafter, things will start moving … I’m not sure

yet, if I’ll trade Natty Gas, but at a minimum I’ll be following it … it has some of the

best m1 chart signals you’ll ever see.

Onto the week … OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of 

sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks armored truck”💓!!

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

IT’S FRIDAY AND NOBODY CARES … AGAIN

“Friday crude oil trading … RIP!”

It turns out, Vlad was behaving today in his “annexation speech” of Ukraine

provinces into Russia “forever” … no talk of nuclear war or an escalation in the

current fighting, at least in so much as it would shake up oil traders … that led

to some disappointment among oil bulls, that the world wouldn’t end just yet,

and time to get out of some long positions … add to that, it’s end of month, end

of quarter, and OPEC+ meets next week, for what is generally expected to be

production cuts in the 1 million barrel range … take all of that and spread it out

on the financial Ouija board and you got today … ughhhhhhh!

Looking at the day’s range, and it’s biz as usual, coming in at a respectable $3.34

[so far], but since about 8 AM EST, to now slightly after 2 PM EST [about 6 hours],

it’s about $1.60 from the tips, and a whole lot less from tradeable prices … so

while the Asian session gets its moves, the U.S. session gets mostly

Mr. Jack Squat … throw in some of that yummy “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD]

bullshit on spike trips to either tip, and if you’re not careful this uneventful day

could turn into one Helluva clusterfark of losses … and as if we needed it, even

most of the buy signals in crude today were “red flag” affairs I wrote about

yesterday, creating an environment today that saw way too many

“false positives” for my blood … and, that’s what happens when VIX comes in

and you don't get the necessary volatility in crude you expect or need … quite

frankly, it’s Friday and nobody gives a shit, now that we aren’t gonna have

nuclear war over the weekend! … thanks Vlad! [I think]

Quite frankly, I’m a little surprised we got a day like this … didn’t see this

funeral procession hitting today … after that 3 minute “Thelma & Louise” cliff

dive right before the NYSE open, followed by a “V” shaped bottom, the rest of

the day has been Midnight at the nursing home … plenty of sleep and not a whole

lot of action anywhere … the crude oil trading algorithm is not designed to catch

or capture “V” bottoms, so that bottom never gave us a buy signal … taking that

cliff dive away, and the 6 hour range so far is about $1.50, and not something to

get overly excited about.

No trading today for the PAMM in crude oil … as I said, didn’t think I’d be writing

those words again so soon … it is what it is, though, and if it doesn’t wanna play

ball, all that’s left is heartburn for us … “Stock Bellies”, RE the “Spoos”

threatening the 3600 level, as “Stonks” sink lower still, and this has a definite

“risk off” stench to it crude finds hard to ignore for a rally … just another “fly in

the ointment” for today’s trade.

All in all, we just need better action, and we’ll get that next week … blog update

on Sunday … OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of 

sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!!

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

 

ONCE AGAIN, THE PENDULUM SHIFTS

 

“Who knew Poe traded EURUSD?!”

Suddenly, the light switch goes off, and the world is now “risk off” … amazing, 

since up until the end of last week we were assured by the Elites of the world, 

that everything was so amazingly F-ing awesome, that there were no worries 

anywhere … stocks to infinity, EM solved, and a chicken in every pot.

And then reality bites … “cuz here’s the dirty little secret about FX in general 

… nothing in this world looks so “Hoover Dam” good one minute, and we’ve just 

started the next great bull market in whatever; down ticks be damned cuz we’ll 

never see them again … and 2 hours to 2 days later, the horror of that bubble 

bursts and the largest bear market ever seen in history is about to unfold before 

your eyes, and none of this stuff has a prayer of rallying 5 PIPS to save your life 

… and back & forth we go through history and on into the future”!

So, here’s the $64,000 question: “Is this by design or coincidence”? If you 

answered “coincidence”, go back and take the test again. 

Turning to today’s EURUSD market … “mind numbing boredom followed by 

spikes lower, then higher … didn’t make much sense going down, and makes less 

sense going up … and like last week, volumes are pathetic and liquidity is even 

worse”. I’m left wondering why even have trading during Europe? … it’s not a 

rhetorical question … seriously, a less than 20 PIP range over about 5 hours 

that goes nowhere … only when traders get to their desks in NY, does the 

market wake up and do anything.

Short blog today, as I’m getting docs done as well as things with C2. “Risk off” 

pretty much sums up today’s market sentiment, but U.S. data was strong this 

morning, which led to early Euro weakness, but EURUSD off the low has 

caught a bid, and while we’ve had signals, volatility has really sucked today, 

being explosive one moment and then dead the next hour … and while the 

day’s range in theory is decent, the day’s intraday volatility has been anything 

but … in other words, this is a clusterfark of kill the longs, then kill the shorts, 

then go dead … thank you scumbag LP banks.

A couple of trades today … PAMM up a few bucks.

Both trades off algo signals, but I wasn’t willing to hold them … they were 

scalps at best and were treated as such. First we go down practically 6 hours in 

a row, then it’s up 5 hours in a row … nothing more than bank led 

manipulation carryover from last week, then go stop hunting.

Tomorrow hopefully sees better action. Until then mi amigos 

… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!!

-vegas

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