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Friday, May 31, 2019

SUDDENLY, A BLACK SWAN SHOWS UP

“The impact of the highly improbable event!”

Oh boy, I see “Black Swans” in the water today … President Trump putting
the hammer down on Mexico overnight, and quite frankly it’s high time
somebody did something to stop ILLEGALS from pouring through the
southern border … we’ll see how much Mexico howls & yelps “it’s unfair”
… this from a country with one of the toughest immigration laws in the world
… oh, the irony meter is way past the red line, as they extend the welcome
mat to Central American castoffs, and allow them free passage to our border
… “finally, an American President with some balls to do something, while the
SJW Snowflakes huddle in their safe spaces somewhere” … about fucking
time!

And once again, we enter a trading day with a massive daily range to the
downside … what’s left for the U.S. session? … and will the “Plunge
Protection Team” [PPT] step in after the selling and manipulate the SP500
higher? … with what’s been happening lately, who wants to go home for the
weekend long stocks? … now that we’ve broken the 200 day MA to the
downside, does the “short gamma” crowd show up and really belt the shit
out of stocks and send them reeling lower? … and finally, how do you measure
the severity of sell side panic on a Friday?

All these questions of course, non computable with no answers … a veritable
infinite number of probability wave functions, where one will go to ‘1”, and
the rest to “0”, at the speed of light today … good luck measuring risk control
today in anything.

We’ve been open now for about 90 minutes in the NYSE session, and the overt,
in your face manipulation, by the PPT simply knows no bounds … quite
frankly, this is a disgrace to markets everywhere … but since it’s stocks,
nobody cares … what in fact is happening, is that they are destroying financial
markets … and when the public stops buying, and traders come to realize
they’re nothing but guinea pigs for the PPT and nobody trades the SP500
contract anymore, who are they going to manipulate it from to get their gains?
… this is an absolute “shitshow circus” … another market that is gonna go
“silverization” and die if they keep this shit up … mark my words.

And in that vein, this is why crude oil is the largest traded commodity in the
world, and why money flows to it … cuz it ain’t government manipulated!
The last of the somewhat free markets left on earth to trade, where VIX isn’t
centrally planned by manipulation HQ.

Like I said earlier in the week, it’s either straight up or straight down, and the
normal ebb & flow of the marketplace is literally destroyed cuz there’s nothing
but panic on both sides … how the fuck do you trade this in that kind of
environment? … cuz what happens is you constantly risk $100 to make $10,
and if you swing and miss, you literally need a 80% - 90% win rate just to
breakeven, cuz the losses come quick and nasty … it’s bullshit, just the way the
manipulators like it.

Here at Noon EST, the levitation act continues in the SP500 … all the while of
course, shorts get burned by trading news … I’ve said it for years & decades,
you just can’t make a living or make any money on the short side of stock
indices, unless you get stone cold lucky … and since October of 1987, you’re
always fighting the government. Market has crawled back up to slightly
higher from the open, and right near the 200 day MA in the SP500 … oh how
they desperately want a close above the 200 day MA … the way things are
going, they’ll probably get it on manipulation, but I don’t think you can
ignore the news cycle here it’s so “Hoover Dam” ugly.

And now that we ran up like a turtle, it can’t rally now as we slink back down
… just really bad trading conditions, made worse by news & government. Still
haven’t gotten a single algorithm buy signal the entire week! … this is what
you get from manipulated markets. Quite frankly, I’m ready to throw my
laptop in the ocean and go work at the circus shoveling elephant shit, but the
dog & Mrs. say no … they’re afraid the elephants would trample me when I
pissed them off to no end.

So, here we are with another completely useless trading day, where so far, the
day’s range is 40 index points, and the NY session after 3 hours of bullshit
has a range of 18 index points … straight down, then straight up, and now
straight down into the middle … oh yea, sign me up and get me in the middle
of this wonderful “shitshow circus”, where the spikes up/down from hell show
no signs of ending anytime soon.

Good Lord, I need some vitamin C therapy [Corona with lime] … another
minute of this crap and my head is gonna explode … I’ll let the manipulation
criminals JPM, Squid, & Citibank have fun with the rest of the afternoon on
a Friday, cuz you can count me out playing with scum like this going into the
weekend … no thanks, all they are is trouble. I’m outta here early today.

Blog update on Sunday … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas


Thursday, May 30, 2019

EVERYBODY NOW LOVES MANIPULATION

“Pretty soon, you’ll believe anything & everything!”

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that only financial markets are manipulated
… yesterday provides a prime example … Gestapo Chief Robert “I kept 4
innocent men in prison for decades to protect mob murderer Whitey Bulger”
Mueller, has changed the formula for jurisprudence in America from
presumption of innocence, into you’re fucking guilty of something, I know it,
but just can’t find any evidence of anything, but I’m having a press conference
anyway just so I don’t have to answer any Republican hard questions in front
of Congress UNDER OATH … sure, it was a scam from the get go, so what?
… "we all know Trump is guilty of something, we just can’t find anything”.

It was one Lavrentiy Beria, Stalin’s chief henchman in charge of murdering
millions, who so gloriously is once to have said, “show me a man, and I will
find a crime” … and quite frankly, we have now devolved into mass
manipulation of the masses for political purposes … anything & everything
is now manipulated for political ends … sports, law, education, entertainment,
arts, science, religion, and of course financial markets, and the list goes on &
on … it’s all manipulation for a desired political effect, and depending on
where you “sit”, it seems to be just fine for some, and an outrage for others
… at some point, though, they come for YOU, and there won’t be anybody
including friends & family who will stick up for you, and you find yourself
ruined by the shifting mobs of outrage. “We are all enemies of the state
… unindicted felonies for unknown crimes … you just don’t know it yet”!

Which dovetails right into the SP500 and yesterday’s excursion into
protecting the 200 day MA, and the throng of “short gamma” sellers that will
go batshit crazy when it gets breached to the downside. And for like the
umpteenth million time, yesterday sees the last hour ramp from the
“Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] to save society from the evils of lower still
stock prices … “thank you so much for caring PPT, can I now expect to see
PSA’s [public service announcements] on public television during pledge
drives”? The entirety of the rising levels of shit from all sources, is almost too
much to bear … and how many billions was spent yesterday on saving the
system of corruption & graft we know is taking place? … I can’t count that
high.

Overnight doesn’t get the desired ramp of SP500 futures, I’m sure the PPT
expected … maybe it has something to do with worsening rhetoric out of
China state run MSM, which if you can tell the difference between the
ChiComs media & the U.S. MSM, more power to you cuz they’re basically
the same scumbags totally in the tank for government … in any event, China
says it my halt U.S. soybean imports now … I guess this is all part of the
“trade optimism” the financial MSM tries to feed us day-to-day, and the
reason “Everything Is F-ing Awesome, Baby!” should make you want to buy
MOAR!

Well, I see a “darkening” of the force, right along with a growing public
suspicion that it’s all bullshit … better late than never I suppose … but the
ramps higher keep getting smaller, and the turnaround sell spikes are
becoming more vicious in scope … and quite frankly, what I see is
HODLING … yup, holding on for dear life … and at some point a whole
shitload of folks will be puking no matter the chatter from the FED Pie Holes,
Trump tweets, the comedy act of Kudlow & Mnuchin, and/or anybody else
… they just want the hell out.

No better “darkening” of the force, than the “bigly & yuge” inversion of the
yield curve, and a slowing of world money supply growth … and if traders get
the hint that maybe the “FED Put” isn’t in play anymore cuz the CNTRL-P
machine is on the “fritz’? … well, lookout below mi amigos, it could get quite
ugly real quick!

We’re a couple of hours to the cash NYSE open, and trading is very muted
… there is literally nothing moving right now … nothing … I will say, though,
that in defense of the scumbag LP’s yesterday [yes, I know it’s hard to believe,
but I call them like I see ‘em], they maintained a very good 0.2 - 0.3 bid/offer
spread in the SP500 CFD the entire day ...remember, the futures minimum
tick is 0.25 index points, so the CFD tracked it very well … maybe they got the
message? One can only hope. GDP and a host of other now meaningless
economic stats out at 8:30 AM EST … and if the China trade war does in fact
drag out, mark my words the financial MSM will suddenly start ignoring it
and find something else that can bolster the “Everything Is F-ing Awesome,
Baby!” meme to prop stocks … feel manipulated yet?

Ok, data at 8:30 out of the way … more likely now, it’s time for the opening
“pump & dump” scheme where stocks can get briefly levitated in anticipation
of the Chipmunks buying at the open … AND, just like that, the bid/offer
spread explodes on the open … scumbags top to bottom … and of course, a
new high on Chipmunk buying cuz everything is so great … what a fucking
joke.

So today, you get to see first hand what happens to those who sold on the
break of 2800 … they get punished by the manipulators, and forced to buy
back higher and incur losses … sure, it looked like a “sure thing “ to sell
… only problem is you don’t know when they come back in and literally
wreck your trade. And so, the “dead cat bounce” continues, just shy now of
2800. Just another day in the life of the world’s biggest Ponzi scheme, where
the entire investing public gets duped by the 0.001%. Trade it, why not?
… invest in it, you got to be kidding.

Meanwhile, over in gold land … it takes a lot of discipline not to laugh at
gold … quite frankly, in its present form, probably the biggest joke running
that it’s a “market” … it’s no such thing … in its present form, it’s nothing
more than a scam run by the FED for the benefit of the bullion dealers
… heads they win, tails you lose … there’s very little volume or liquidity cuz
nobody with any brains is going to willingly screw themselves by trading it
… the gig is up, and gold will only matter again when it does, and nobody has
a clue when that will be.

Ok, another nothing day of bullshit in the SP500 … PPT & Chipmunks rule
the open … reality sets in and it gets entirely erased, and here after
1 PM EST, the market is right where it was at the open, diddling a little up &
down and tickling some MT4/MT5 indicators to buy/sell … in other words,
it’s going nowhere … news today getting worse, worser, & worser-er by the
minute, but who cares about yield curve inversions, dwindling world money
supply growth, rapidly falling economic statistics, rising world geopolitical
tensions, and worsening rhetoric from China regarding that slam dunk trade
deal that ain’t happening anytime soon … all that matters is 1) Trump
tweeted saying he thinks there will be a trade deal [someday], and 2) the
PPT is hanging around, waiting to club like baby seals at a Japanese whale
hunt, those who get short.

The main problem at the moment, is that there is ZERO give & take in the
market … manipulation has so distorted the market mechanism for price
discovery, that all we literally see in the SP500 is some degree of either panic
up or panic down and nothing else … you don’t want to buy the market as
it’s going up, but waiting for a correction is about as bad, cuz when it
corrects, that’s it for the move … reboot, rinse, & repeat and what you end
up with is chop with a slightly bigger range, simply cuz there is no follow
through to anything during the NYSE session … so, it’s 5 index points
straight up, and then 8 index points straight down, followed by 7 index points
straight up, and you get the idea … and when it turns, look the hell out, cuz it
takes no prisoners in screwing traders who are on the wrong side … hit the
market button to get out, and good luck with the fill, cuz it could be anywhere.

And while I’m not making coin sitting here, I’m not getting bled to death
with paper cut losses either … these are NOT the same markets that existed
back-in-the-day when pits ruled the world … these are HFT & PPT
manipulated markets for social policy ideals that can never succeed in the
long run … the hubris of the manipulators is breathtaking in its defiance of
free and open markets … someday they will learn this, and it won’t be pretty.
It does us little good to get long and scalp this market, cuz when your trade is
wrong it goes so fast in the other direction, it’s impossible to control risk from
a scalping mindset. On the other hand, right now playing for bigger gains
sounds plausible, but the turns south take it away furiously & fast, so what
you end up with is a scalp profit if you’re lucky.

These last couple of weeks have seen atrocious trading conditions in the
SP500, punctuated by panic, both up & down, along with scumbag LP’s
raising bid/offer spreads … I don’t see anybody making any money here.
Again, another reason hedge fund returns in 2019 are lagging badly … they
simply can’t react fast enough to the various panics, and lack of any follow
through that makes any sense … so, they simply react to POLS &
Apparatchiks and nothing else … and when they fall silent, volumes &
liquidity dry up worse than a new years Christmas tree.

Granted, when the SP500 is in the “80” part of the “80/10/10” paradigm, and
price is generally rising, you can buy every break with impunity, and you can
employ various strategies you wouldn’t dream of doing when you’re in the
back part of the “80/10/10” paradigm, cuz there’s no limit to risk on the
downside when this stuff goes tapioca. And right now, we’re in the back part
of the “80/10/10” paradigm.

Here at about 2 PM EST, with a shit NYSE session range, and little interest
after the opening manipulation [designed of course, to get you to buy MOAR!]
to do anything, we sit and chop going into the close … and it should be clear to
anybody who is watching, the late day ramps are exclusively the manipulators
in action … and quite frankly, nobody knows how aggressive they want to be,
cuz when they stop, the market dies and price starts to fall again … this is
NOT how markets are supposed to operate.

But, besides oil, is anything else moving? Is any other market consistently
doing anything? The answer of course is NO … oil isn’t FED and/or other CB
manipulated, everything else is … gold & FX are a complete joke, and we can’t
trade oil unless we want to get totally ripped off by Turnkey and their LP’s
… futures would be nice, but we can’t do futures. All we can do is wait it out,
and today is how many days in a row we haven’t gotten an algorithm buy
signal? … spooky but true.

So, onto tomorrow … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas